Even if it were a full season lockout, there is no guarantee it would be the same. They would probably shuffle things around and change a few things to make it look like they "really thought things through this time". Thats was execs like to do.
Even if it were a full season lockout, there is no guarantee it would be the same. They would probably shuffle things around and change a few things to make it look like they "really thought things through this time". Thats was execs like to do.
I agree fully.
Just like the new CBA will have changes, and may even result in partial lockout in order to force changes to occur.
The last entry draft rules was just made up on the spot, and there is a strong possibility (in case of a full year lost, unlikely) that the league also would tweak the entry draft rules this time around attempting to improve on the past as well.
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Signature: There is no greater demonstration of Fan patience then to suggest to "Play the Kids " and be willing to accept the consequences of those actions..
Even if it were a full season lockout, there is no guarantee it would be the same. They would probably shuffle things around and change a few things to make it look like they "really thought things through this time". Thats was execs like to do.
In the OP, I did state "If" they used the same process. But I wouldn't imagine a huge change from the last time around. All teams will have a legit shot at picking 1st, with the poorer teams having a slightly higher chance.
As far as the lottery goes, I'd rather have a full season of hockey than hang my hopes on a ~6% chance on 1st overall, assuming no rules are changed.
2 of the past 3 seasons including the last one just completed, the Leafs finished among the bottom 5 worst teams. So considering our Leafs are currently among the worst teams, and the entry draft rewards failure by handing out draft picks in reverse order of final standings, then lets look at this big picture here.
If it takes a full season lost and balls in lottery to earn a 6% chance at a top pick, than based on Leafs actual past on ice performance as a outcome of actually playing the games, the odds of picking higher in the draft might even be greater.
Quote:
Odds of Winning the 1st Overall Pick - Final Standings
48.2% - Columbus Blue Jackets - 65 points
18.8% - Edmonton Oilers - 74 points
14.2% - Montreal Canadiens - 78 points
10.7% - New York Islanders - 79 points 8.1% - Toronto Maple Leafs - 80 points
Case in point .. The Leafs finished 5th last overall and had a 8.1% odds of winning the draft lottery and picking 1st overall, where as a season long lockout would give them a 6% chance .. Since 8.1% > 6% therefore playing games > sitting out games (as far as winning lottery odds are concerned).
If anyone is actually hoping we miss an ENTIRE SEASON of hockey, just so the Leafs can have a ... 6% chance... at getting McKinnon... it shows just how sad "Leafs Nation" has become.
I'd prefer a season of hockey. I'd prefer to see us shore up our goaltending, add a veteran top 4 shutdown defender and a veteran defensive two-way centre, dump as much of LACK as possible, dump MacArthur, and make room for Kadri/Frattin. Draft a stud with the 5th overall, and hopefully see this team have a legitimate shot at the playoffs.
Better than sitting there for an entire year with your fingers crossed on a 6% chance... that means there's a 94% chance that the Leafs WON'T get the 1st overall pick. There's actually a very good chance we'd end up with a pick in the 8-15 range.... so you'd wait an entire year... for a mid to early 1st round pick. Wooooo.
If anyone is actually hoping we miss an ENTIRE SEASON of hockey, just so the Leafs can have a ... 6% chance... at getting McKinnon... it shows just how sad "Leafs Nation" has become.
I'd prefer a season of hockey. I'd prefer to see us shore up our goaltending, add a veteran top 4 shutdown defender and a veteran defensive two-way centre, dump as much of LACK as possible, dump MacArthur, and make room for Kadri/Frattin. Draft a stud with the 5th overall, and hopefully see this team have a legitimate shot at the playoffs.
Better than sitting there for an entire year with your fingers crossed on a 6% chance... that means there's a 94% chance that the Leafs WON'T get the 1st overall pick. There's actually a very good chance we'd end up with a pick in the 8-15 range.... so you'd wait an entire year... for a mid to early 1st round pick. Wooooo.
I don't think there's anyone here hoping that there's a lock-out; just an optimistic outlook that IF there was a lock-out, one positive byproduct of it would be that we'd have another high pick.
A little off topic, but someone proposed the idea that if you get the 1st overall pick, you cant get another 1st overall pick for like another 5 years. I think thats a good idea.
NO!
There is already enough mediocrity...i mean parity in the NHL.
that draft was a sham. the penguins got very very very lucky
i watched that draft on T.V. no bouncing balls were shown. Putrid Gary Bettman just pulled some square cards out of envelopes. Guess the league owed Mario Lemieux more then just dollars.
I dont remember, how did that 1st overall pick turn out for the Penguins??
first off Bettman rigged the draft so Pitt dont loose their team... A nothern classic franchise going under would of rocked the NHL.
It's strange how Mackinnon is suppose to be the next big thing and he is from Cole Harbour, Nova Scotia, in a potential lock out year....
Kinda creepy...
I would bet Bettman does the same and the Jackets get him... Book it
Creepy indeed.
dont forget the 2013 draft is in Toronto... maybe Burke being out GM finally nets us something we would otherwise have no chance at... maybe the Leafs get the pick?
2 of the past 3 seasons including the last one just completed, the Leafs finished among the bottom 5 worst teams. So considering our Leafs are currently among the worst teams, and the entry draft rewards failure by handing out draft picks in reverse order of final standings, then lets look at this big picture here.
If it takes a full season lost and balls in lottery to earn a 6% chance at a top pick, than based on Leafs actual past on ice performance as a outcome of actually playing the games, the odds of picking higher in the draft might even be greater.
Case in point .. The Leafs finished 5th last overall and had a 8.1% odds of winning the draft lottery and picking 1st overall, where as a season long lockout would give them a 6% chance .. Since 8.1% > 6% therefore playing games > sitting out games (as far as winning lottery odds are concerned).
Apples and oranges Mess, in a lost season all 30 teams are factored in. In a regular season only the bottom 5 are factored in.
Even that description's a little misleading. You don't lose a ball "for every" playoff appearance or first overall. Essentially there's two criteria:
1) Missed the playoffs in each of the previous 3 seasons.
2) Didn't have the 1st overall selection over the last 4 drafts.
If you met both criteria, you got 3 balls.
If you made the playoffs only once OR had the 1st overall only once, you got 2 balls.
If you had two or more of any combination of those two (playoff appearances or 1st overalls), then you only got 1 ball.
Thanks for starting the thread though; it'll definitely be useful with all this lock-out talk flying around.
Assuming the 2012-2013 season is cancelled won't the NHL have no choice to use the same Draft Lottery system they used in 2005? They don't have anything else to go by, so based on the rules Toronto should have at least a great chance of getting the #1 pick.
They should be exempt from a lottery pick for 5 years. No more awarding the most pathetic team repeatedly; especially when you have a special case like Edmonton, where they manage to find a new low worse than pathetic.
Toronto already brings in the most revenue. Wouldn't they try to put Mackinnon in another floundering market if the conspiracy theorists are right?
I remember when the rules for the 2005 Draft Lottery were announced and what teams would have the best chance to get the #1 pick and select Sidney Crosby, a lot of people thought it was set up for the New York Rangers since at that time they hadn't made the Playoffs since 1997. People assumed that Bettman would want Crosby playing in one of the most popular American markets with the media and etc. Although as we all know the Rangers originally ended up with the 16th overall pick, so if the same system happens again let's hope Toronto ends up in a better position.
How many times in a row should you be rewarded for being the worst team in the league?
A million if it takes that many to be good.
I could not care less how many top picks a team gets because if it was so unfair then every team would strive to be the worst team in the league instead of trying to squeeze into the playoffs.
"TEAMS WITH THREE BALLS (7)
Calgary, Carolina, Columbus, Dallas, Minnesota, Toronto, Winnipeg
TEAMS WITH TWO BALLS (6)
Anaheim, Colorado, Florida, New York (I), St. Louis, Tampa Bay
TEAMS WITH ONE BALL (17)
Boston, Buffalo, Chicago, Detroit, Edmonton, Los Angeles, Montreal, Nashville, New Jersey, New York (R), Ottawa, Philadelphia, Phoenix, Pittsburgh, San Jose, Vancouver, Washington"
Look at it this way, last time 4 teams had the highest chance at 1st overall. Two of those teams fell out of the top 10 altogether. Whichever lottery system they use, we NEED a top 5 pick if there's a full lockout.
Well done sir.
