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Wherein we pin our salvation on someone besides Guerrero (wallpaper/avys - posts 1&2)

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Old
06-15-2012, 12:35 PM
  #976
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Drabek has a sprained elbow

Cecil called up

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06-15-2012, 12:43 PM
  #977
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Originally Posted by weems View Post
Drabek has a sprained elbow

Cecil called up
Well hopefully that means Drabek's injury isn't serious. Hoping Cecil pitches well in his call up.

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06-15-2012, 12:55 PM
  #978
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ESPN illustrates the fatal flaws of the save, how it influence managers to make bad choices, and how it could be fixed.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/page/...aningful-again

This is exactly what I've been talking about when I've said the save is a dumb stat (at least insofar as it is currently used) that makes managers do dumb things.


and an insider article about bullpen mismanagement

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story...-relievers-mlb

also the first article links to this:

http://www.retrosheet.org/Research/S...ingPattern.pdf

illustrating how the "why" of the fact that paying for an "elite" closer is a dumb allotment of resources.

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06-15-2012, 01:05 PM
  #979
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Nemesis View Post
ESPN illustrates the fatal flaws of the save, how it influence managers to make bad choices, and how it could be fixed.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/page/...aningful-again

This is exactly what I've been talking about when I've said the save is a dumb stat (at least insofar as it is currently used) that makes managers do dumb things.


and an insider article about bullpen mismanagement

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story...-relievers-mlb

also the first article links to this:

http://www.retrosheet.org/Research/S...ingPattern.pdf

illustrating how the "why" of the fact that paying for an "elite" closer is a dumb allotment of resources.
Would I pay good money for a quality proven reliever? Absolutely.

Would I pay stupid money for a quality proven "Closer"? Hell no.

15-20m for a reliever is very poor asset management. Id rather have a whole bullpen full of quality decent relievers for that cost rather then 1 person.

I also happen to think the best move that AA has made this year in the bullpen was darren oliver. Pure class and composure.

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06-15-2012, 01:07 PM
  #980
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http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/da...year-they-sell

Jays are inquiring about Justin Morneau.

Holy ****, he would be ****ing awesome!

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Old
06-15-2012, 01:20 PM
  #981
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Paladin2799 View Post
http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/da...year-they-sell

Jays are inquiring about Justin Morneau.

Holy ****, he would be ****ing awesome!
I love the very last quote. I like Alex but Alex calls about everyone. Oh and I would also love to add Morneau. That kind of screams to me that no matter what Lind does in AAA they have no plans on bringing him back.

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Old
06-15-2012, 01:22 PM
  #982
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Originally Posted by dredeye View Post
I love the very last quote. I like Alex but Alex calls about everyone. Oh and I would also love to add Morneau. That kind of screams to me that no matter what Lind does in AAA they have no plans on bringing him back.
I think much more likely is that EE is on the way out the door.

Morneau to DH, Lind to 1st, EE out for prospects/pitching.

Would give morneau a chance to be safe from injury, lind is a much better defensive player then morneau and it keeps building our system.

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06-15-2012, 01:27 PM
  #983
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Jenkins had a decent game which is great.

6ip 4h 1er (solo shot) gave up 5 walks and 4k's

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Old
06-15-2012, 01:38 PM
  #984
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Paladin2799 View Post
I think much more likely is that EE is on the way out the door.

Morneau to DH, Lind to 1st, EE out for prospects/pitching.

Would give morneau a chance to be safe from injury, lind is a much better defensive player then morneau and it keeps building our system.
We'd be acquiring Morneau to try to contend, why deal EE right after that? I don't understand why you think its more likely we deal EE than keep Lind in AAA/release him? Also i don't see how Lind is THAT much better at 1st than EE or Morneau? EE has played pretty well there this year and i've never known Morneau to be a TERRIBLE defender.

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Old
06-15-2012, 01:41 PM
  #985
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Paladin2799 View Post
Would I pay good money for a quality proven reliever? Absolutely.

Would I pay stupid money for a quality proven "Closer"? Hell no.


15-20m for a reliever is very poor asset management. Id rather have a whole bullpen full of quality decent relievers for that cost rather then 1 person.

I also happen to think the best move that AA has made this year in the bullpen was darren oliver. Pure class and composure.
while not the primary and explicit goal of the articles, that is something that can be heavily inferred from the data.

Based on the info presented, teams entering the 9th with a 1 run lead will win that game about 86% of the time. Two run leads push the # to about 94%, and three runs up to 98%.

I don't have the raw numbers of how many leads of each type were counted, but if we assume that those lead amounts were fairly evenly distributed, that means that save situations in the 9th inning end in a win for that team about 92.3% of the time. Even if we weight it so that 1 run lead save situations are twice as likely as 2 or 3 run leads, that only pushes the average win rate in save situations down to about 88.9%. Even if 75% of saves are 1 run leads and only 10% are 3 run leads, the rate is still 88.1%

Now obviously closers haven't been used in these situations for the entirety of what the data represents (from what I understand, it's pretty much the whole history of major league baseball), but the data also shows that the win rate has not significantly changed due to the introduction of the save as a stat or the modern usage of the closer as a 9th inning specialist.

But the crux of the data is that when a team enters the 9th inning with a 1-3 run lead, they're going to win no less than about 86% of the time, and that on the whole the average rate at which a save would be earned in such situations is likely to be somewhere in the high 80% to low/mid 90%

Then there's Jonathan Papelbon, the latest closer to receive a big money contract. His career conversion rate on saves? about 88.3% So if we take those win rates I calculated above, at best, Papelbon converts the save at only just barely better than the league average save rate over the entire course of baseball history. At worst, he's about 4% under the league average. And yet Papelbon gets a contract equal to or superior to many starters. and exponentially larger than any other member of the bullpen.

This is why I've said that you should bring your best reliever in when he is most needed, and not hold onto him on the chance that you might need him for a precious precious save in the 9th inning.

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Old
06-15-2012, 01:42 PM
  #986
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TorontoMarleauLeafs View Post
We'd be acquiring Morneau to try to contend, why deal EE right after that? I don't understand why you think its more likely we deal EE than keep Lind in AAA/release him? Also i don't see how Lind is THAT much better at 1st than EE or Morneau? EE has played pretty well there this year and i've never known Morneau to be a TERRIBLE defender.
Lind was a very capable defender at first. easily the best of the 3 IMHO.

We are nowhere near contending, its been going around that EE is being shopped because he is going to want a good contract after hitting the way he did. I would imagine that a canadian like morneau would give us an extra year of control while maintaining the same sort of bat, be acquired at a discount, as well as still freeing up EE for a kings ransom at the deadline.

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06-15-2012, 01:44 PM
  #987
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Nemesis View Post
while not the primary and explicit goal of the articles, that is something that can be heavily inferred from the data.

Based on the info presented, teams entering the 9th with a 1 run lead will win that game about 86% of the time. Two run leads push the # to about 94%, and three runs up to 98%.

I don't have the raw numbers of how many leads of each type were counted, but if we assume that those lead amounts were fairly evenly distributed, that means that save situations in the 9th inning end in a win for that team about 92.3% of the time. Even if we weight it so that 1 run lead save situations are twice as likely as 2 or 3 run leads, that only pushes the average win rate in save situations down to about 88.9%. Even if 75% of saves are 1 run leads and only 10% are 3 run leads, the rate is still 88.1%

Now obviously closers haven't been used in these situations for the entirety of what the data represents (from what I understand, it's pretty much the whole history of major league baseball), but the data also shows that the win rate has not significantly changed due to the introduction of the save as a stat or the modern usage of the closer as a 9th inning specialist.

But the crux of the data is that when a team enters the 9th inning with a 1-3 run lead, they're going to win no less than about 86% of the time, and that on the whole the average rate at which a save would be earned in such situations is likely to be somewhere in the high 80% to low/mid 90%

Then there's Jonathan Papelbon, the latest closer to receive a big money contract. His career conversion rate on saves? about 88.3% So if we take those win rates I calculated above, at best, Papelbon converts the save at only just barely better than the league average save rate over the entire course of baseball history. At worst, he's about 4% under the league average. And yet Papelbon gets a contract equal to or superior to many starters. and exponentially larger than any other member of the bullpen.

This is why I've said that you should bring your best reliever in when he is most needed, and not hold onto him on the chance that you might need him for a precious precious save in the 9th inning.
I agree heavily. Well written.

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Old
06-15-2012, 02:04 PM
  #988
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OT but Canadian baseball related. Cubs pitcher and Canadian Ryan Dempster just hit a stand up triple, the horrible grass at Wrigley probably played a part.

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Old
06-15-2012, 02:31 PM
  #989
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Nemesis View Post
while not the primary and explicit goal of the articles, that is something that can be heavily inferred from the data.

Based on the info presented, teams entering the 9th with a 1 run lead will win that game about 86% of the time. Two run leads push the # to about 94%, and three runs up to 98%.

I don't have the raw numbers of how many leads of each type were counted, but if we assume that those lead amounts were fairly evenly distributed, that means that save situations in the 9th inning end in a win for that team about 92.3% of the time. Even if we weight it so that 1 run lead save situations are twice as likely as 2 or 3 run leads, that only pushes the average win rate in save situations down to about 88.9%. Even if 75% of saves are 1 run leads and only 10% are 3 run leads, the rate is still 88.1%

Now obviously closers haven't been used in these situations for the entirety of what the data represents (from what I understand, it's pretty much the whole history of major league baseball), but the data also shows that the win rate has not significantly changed due to the introduction of the save as a stat or the modern usage of the closer as a 9th inning specialist.

But the crux of the data is that when a team enters the 9th inning with a 1-3 run lead, they're going to win no less than about 86% of the time, and that on the whole the average rate at which a save would be earned in such situations is likely to be somewhere in the high 80% to low/mid 90%

Then there's Jonathan Papelbon, the latest closer to receive a big money contract. His career conversion rate on saves? about 88.3% So if we take those win rates I calculated above, at best, Papelbon converts the save at only just barely better than the league average save rate over the entire course of baseball history. At worst, he's about 4% under the league average. And yet Papelbon gets a contract equal to or superior to many starters. and exponentially larger than any other member of the bullpen.

This is why I've said that you should bring your best reliever in when he is most needed, and not hold onto him on the chance that you might need him for a precious precious save in the 9th inning.
closer is the most overrated position in baseball. Its insane that in a 5-5 game say, in the 7th, I shouldnt bring out my "closer" to ensure I get the 3 outs, instead keeping him on the bench and hoping one of my lesser relievers can get the job done, and when he inevitably lets in a run, I think can't use my "closer" cause were losing. Its stupid.

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Old
06-15-2012, 03:04 PM
  #990
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Paladin2799 View Post
I think much more likely is that EE is on the way out the door.

Morneau to DH, Lind to 1st, EE out for prospects/pitching.

Would give morneau a chance to be safe from injury, lind is a much better defensive player then morneau and it keeps building our system.
I just appears to me that Lind is pretty done as a Jay. Morneau and EE can platoon at first and DH. EE very well could be traded off but maybe they are also auditioning Cooper to try and up his value. Who knows? But there are many viable options if they can bring in someone line Morneau.

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06-15-2012, 03:51 PM
  #991
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Stilson promoted to AA New Hampshire.

Ben Francisco joins him in AA for rehab.

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06-15-2012, 04:00 PM
  #992
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Originally Posted by dredeye View Post
I love the very last quote. I like Alex but Alex calls about everyone. Oh and I would also love to add Morneau. That kind of screams to me that no matter what Lind does in AAA they have no plans on bringing him back.
AA talks a good story but yet to deliver winning at the big league level. And prospects and are just that.

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06-15-2012, 04:12 PM
  #993
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Well hopefully that means Drabek's injury isn't serious. Hoping Cecil pitches well in his call up.
Unfortunately, it's a sprained UCL. I think you know what that means...

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Old
06-15-2012, 04:41 PM
  #994
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one more piece on closers:

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/po...ow-we-got-here

tracking the evolution of the closer as a designated role and how we ended up in a baseball world where a team loses a game and their best reliever doesn't get out of his seat when the game was clsoe because it's not a "save situation".

EDIT: sorry, here's the real "one more piece", a bit on closers and their use (or lack thereof) in high leverage situations, specifically with inherited runners:

http://www.highheatstats.com/2012/02...he-year-award/

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06-15-2012, 04:43 PM
  #995
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Unfortunately, it's a sprained UCL. I think you know what that means...
That's an incorrect statement, a sprained UCL does not always mean TJ. Feliz sprained his earlier this year and should be back around the All-Star break.

Sadly for Drabek it probably does mean Tommy John, terrible news for the team. Hopefully his future isn't in jeopardy

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06-15-2012, 05:08 PM
  #996
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Very interesting post Nemesis, and I agree with you. Just to play the devil's advocate, couldn't you make an argument that holding back a strong arm for the VERY late innings (8 and 9) is effective in getting the hitters off-time? Majority of closers (at least traditionally) are guys that can hit mid-90's with a fastball and after 8 innings of seeing fastballs at ~90mph, seeing that extra heat in the 9th could lead to more swing and misses. By no means am I saying I agree with overpaying for a "closing" pitcher, but I do see some value in keeping a strong arm for the 9th.



As for the Morneau thing, yea I agree with those of you that said the trade would mean the end of the Lind era.

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06-15-2012, 05:42 PM
  #997
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2 Things I wish Bautista would do differently

1. Crowd the plate like Rasmus does. He has the eye to do it.

2. Stop having his upper half "flying open" when he swings.

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06-15-2012, 06:22 PM
  #998
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What would the price be on morneau..

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06-15-2012, 06:47 PM
  #999
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Now would be the time for McGowen and Litsch to have remarkable recoveries.

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06-15-2012, 07:01 PM
  #1000
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Now would be the time for McGowen and Litsch to have remarkable recoveries.
The timing on that would be great but would also require a miracle.

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