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Old
06-15-2012, 06:57 PM
  #26
Grant McCagg
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Originally Posted by Habruti! View Post
If Yakupov falls to 3 we might indeed receive some very nice offers for our pick..

I do understand the poor playoff performance but I do question how much of it could be related to the fact the he migth not have fully recuperate from his concussion...
You have a point. AS I said - it's one of the factors..not necessarily the biggest one, but certainly a concern. Very few number one overall picks have mediocre playoffs in their draft year. I'm not sure using a concussion as the excuse makes things better though...what if he never fully recovers from the concussion. What if he gets a concussion next year too, and another the following year....and his career is over?

I will not be shocked if Edmonton passes on him and takes Murray...Columbus from all indications will take Forsberg and avoid the Russian dilemma altogether. Then what happens? It should be intriguing.

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06-15-2012, 07:12 PM
  #27
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Originally Posted by Grant McCagg View Post
You have a point. AS I said - it's one of the factors..not necessarily the biggest one, but certainly a concern. Very few number one overall picks have mediocre playoffs in their draft year. I'm not sure using a concussion as the excuse makes things better though...what if he never fully recovers from the concussion. What if he gets a concussion next year too, and another the following year....and his career is over?

I will not be shocked if Edmonton passes on him and takes Murray...Columbus from all indications will take Forsberg and avoid the Russian dilemma altogether. Then what happens? It should be intriguing.
Surely an option... I say that if it happens we will trade down...if Toronto is indeed waiving a gardiner or Schen plus there fifth then i say we draft Dumba or TT and never look back...

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06-15-2012, 07:52 PM
  #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grant McCagg View Post
You have a point. AS I said - it's one of the factors..not necessarily the biggest one, but certainly a concern. Very few number one overall picks have mediocre playoffs in their draft year. I'm not sure using a concussion as the excuse makes things better though...what if he never fully recovers from the concussion. What if he gets a concussion next year too, and another the following year....and his career is over?

I will not be shocked if Edmonton passes on him and takes Murray...Columbus from all indications will take Forsberg and avoid the Russian dilemma altogether. Then what happens? It should be intriguing.
Very interesting to hear your perspective, thanks for sharing.

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06-15-2012, 08:03 PM
  #29
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I dislike the Russian factor being a reason why Yakupov drops to #3. Especially when he's behind a guy that is "4-5 years away" from making the NHL. Yakupov is the best player in the draft.

Beyond that, I think Slepyshev ends up a low 2nd round pick. Nonetheless, quite a nice list Grant, thanks for sharing.

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06-15-2012, 09:13 PM
  #30
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Originally Posted by UniverStalinGraduate View Post
4 to 5 years?

I can't think of a single top 5 pick in the last decade at forward who has taken that kind of time to develop into a quality NHL'er.

That's a 10-30 pick, if that's true.
Kyle Turris, Bobby Ryan, James Van Riemsdyk, Kari Lehtonen, Blake Wheeler are a few that come off the top of my head. I'm sure I could find more if I looked them up. Considering this 2012 draft isn't the strongest draft in terms of top drawer talent, I see no problem in waiting 4-5 years for a player to come into their own if that's what it takes.

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06-15-2012, 09:27 PM
  #31
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Originally Posted by Schooner Guy View Post
Kyle Turris, Bobby Ryan, James Van Riemsdyk, Kari Lehtonen, Blake Wheeler are a few that come off the top of my head. I'm sure I could find more if I looked them up. Considering this 2012 draft isn't the strongest draft in terms of top drawer talent, I see no problem in waiting 4-5 years for a player to come into their own if that's what it takes.
I wouldnt draft Turris at #2. Neither would I draft JVR and even for wheeler i'd be very sad.

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Old
06-15-2012, 09:46 PM
  #32
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Originally Posted by Grant McCagg View Post
I have just finalized my draft rankings, and figured I'd post it here if that's okay. I worked with TSN and McKeen's this year, and while I didn't get at the rankings seriously until December, I think I've come up with a list that I'm comfortable publishing.

I don't get to see all of the top prospects live, so I rely on some help from some of my scouting contacts to help fill in the blanks. Sort of a hybrid of what Bob McKenzie and Craig Button do in compiling their rankings. I will be available to answer some questions on occasion over the next week.

....
Teravainen
....
....
....
....
....
....
Grigorenko
....
Lottery teams anchor their drafting philosophy to a long term strategy. The shortest development time frame, ...for the longest lasting impact on their team's planned-for successes. Drafting becomes...by default...a precious, for rare, window of opportunity onto a sophisticated long-game strategy. This is obviously not to be wasted on quick fixes and evanescent glories.

The conceptual framework of pundits, bloggers, journalists, analysts and what not rests essentially on a bedrock of short term memory. One has to be right, ...and remembered professionally, emotionally for being right within an optimally rewarding time frame beyond which creeps in the law of diminishing return. In short, they have a financial, ...professional, ...emotional stake in hitting memory-length, proprietary targets instead of painting with a broad brush the fuzzy realism of the 'arch of history'.

Grigorenko's very nature will play to his future team's long-game strategy. But it cannot, ...will not play well to a pundit's 'pay dirt' memory... However Teravainen's might, ...for even more rewarding it is for a bloodhound scribbler to spin a Finn's failure as a moral victory than it is to turn Russian uncalled for glory into a mere accident of history.

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06-15-2012, 10:22 PM
  #33
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Originally Posted by Grant McCagg View Post
Yakupov is Russian, 5-10 1/2, blah blah blah
What a joke. The country he's from affects where he'll be drafted ? I would be embarrassed to have spent so much time scouting and analyzing all these players and then say " well he's Russian so that knocks him down a spot or two ". What kind of ******** is that?

Did the "Russian Factor" keep Ilya Kovalchuk from reaching the Stanley Cup Finals? Did it keep Slava Voynov from hoisting lord Stanley's mug? Do u see a lack of effort from guys like OV or Gino or Markov or Datsyuk??

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06-15-2012, 10:34 PM
  #34
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Originally Posted by LaTenderness View Post
What a joke. The country he's from affects where he'll be drafted ? I would be embarrassed to have spent so much time scouting and analyzing all these players and then say " well he's Russian so that knocks him down a spot or two ". What kind of ******** is that?

Did the "Russian Factor" keep Ilya Kovalchuk from reaching the Stanley Cup Finals? Did it keep Slava Voynov from hoisting lord Stanley's mug? Do u see a lack of effort from guys like OV or Gino or Markov or Datsyuk??
There's always a Russian factor now, take a Canadian and a Russian same size same skill same everything the Canadian will go before hand, Same thing with an American a Fin or a Swede, the Russian will always go last because of KHL concerns. I'm pretty sure 30 out of 30 NHL clubs think that way but they'd never admit it.

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06-15-2012, 11:07 PM
  #35
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Cant wait. By this time next friday, we will have a new young franchise player! Best part is all these speculations, rumors, debates, the waiting, will all be over.

Lets just pray whoever we draft.. wont be a bust. Lol

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06-15-2012, 11:31 PM
  #36
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Originally Posted by jagielski41 View Post
Cant wait. By this time next friday, we will have a new young franchise player! Best part is all these speculations, rumors, debates, the waiting, will all be over.

Lets just pray whoever we draft.. wont be a bust. Lol
The speculation will end, but the serious byatching will start.

It's neverending here.

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Old
06-15-2012, 11:34 PM
  #37
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Originally Posted by WeThreeKings View Post
Solid list, Grant. I would have Reinhart below Grigs, Trouba and Rielly.. but other than that, looks on par with what I think (I have Yakupov 1st like many, though).
I think he has the list pretty bang on especially where Grigs and Rhino are concerned I would have Rhino above Murray also.

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Old
06-16-2012, 01:49 AM
  #38
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Originally Posted by LaTenderness View Post
What a joke. The country he's from affects where he'll be drafted ? I would be embarrassed to have spent so much time scouting and analyzing all these players and then say " well he's Russian so that knocks him down a spot or two ". What kind of ******** is that?

Did the "Russian Factor" keep Ilya Kovalchuk from reaching the Stanley Cup Finals? Did it keep Slava Voynov from hoisting lord Stanley's mug? Do u see a lack of effort from guys like OV or Gino or Markov or Datsyuk??
To be honest. Many people feel that way. Just surprised Grant felt that was about the near majority choice for #1 overall. At that point, I don't think russian factor comes into play.

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06-16-2012, 02:18 AM
  #39
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Personally, I dont know why, but Ive a hard time to believe in TT hype.. The fact he has been used as a winger and didnt prove his worth as a natural center yet is definitively a concern to me, add his serious lack of size and I dont really understand why he should be ranked that high unless his skills are really that outstanding.. Also, if Grigorenko fall that low Im quite speachless.. The upside is too huge to get "snobed" so many times.. On the other side, I think your concerns on Yakupov are legit and should be factored compared to other top prospects' concerns.. Coach Beaulieu also mention that the guy tend to cheat offensively, what is more tolerated in junior but can become a real concern at the NHL level..


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06-16-2012, 02:47 AM
  #40
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Originally Posted by NewHabsEra View Post
Personally, I dont know why, but Ive a hard time to believe in TT hype.. The fact he has been used as a winger and didnt prove his worth as a natural center yet is definitively a concern to me, add his serious lack of size and I dont really understand why he should be ranked that high unless his skills are really that outstanding.. Also, if Grigorenko fall that low Im quite speachless.. The upside is too huge to get "snobed" so many times.. On the other side, I think your concerns on Yakupov are legit and should be factored compared to other top prospects' concerns.. Coach Beaulieu also mention that the guy tend to cheat offensively, what is more tolerated in junior but can become a real concern at the NHL level..
Fowler dropped to 12th, despite being a top 3 talent in the draft and ranked #2 for most of the year.

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06-16-2012, 03:11 AM
  #41
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Originally Posted by LyricalLyricist View Post
Fowler dropped to 12th, despite being a top 3 talent in the draft and ranked #2 for most of the year.
Maybe because he was small and defensively flawed? Ive a hard time comparing the 2 since they are not even playing the same position, I would rather compare Grigo's actual situation to the one of Couturier last year, both were criticized for their lack of willingness to pay the price and go in the dirty areas, the difference is that Couturier was better rounded, better defensively while Grigo' skillset are even higher..


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Old
06-16-2012, 03:25 AM
  #42
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Very good list Grant. Thanks again to be on here and chime with us every now and then, you're always welcomed.

Bozon seems rising every day in people's mind, I'm not even sure he'll be there by pick #33.

I have a gut feeling that if NYR pass on Matteau, he's NJ bound.

You have Kerdiles low, if we compare to other people's lists, what makes you put him lower than 'say Matteau, Matheson or Bozon?

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Old
06-16-2012, 05:16 AM
  #43
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I'm just curious about Grigs and his almost majority drop from the top 5..and some, like Button lists him @ 20. It's almost like what happened to Kabanov..maybe not as bad ...do you think he could be like a Seminov 2.0? Awesome talent, not heart?

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06-16-2012, 05:53 AM
  #44
Schooner Guy
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Originally Posted by Mrb1p View Post
I wouldnt draft Turris at #2. Neither would I draft JVR and even for wheeler i'd be very sad.
Ahhh! The beauty of hindsight!

BTW, Turris went #3.

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06-16-2012, 06:08 AM
  #45
Grant McCagg
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I don't think I said TT is 5 years away from making the NHL, but it might take him that long before he's an impact NHLer. The average age of NHL rookies is still in the 22-23 years old range...

Why wouldn't the Russian factor come into play for the first overall pick? It would seem to me that it should come into play even moreso when you are taking the first overall player in the entire draft - you do not want to screw up that pick.

Yakupov is ranked first overall on a lot of lists - but those people aren't actually making the pick. It's a lot easier to rank a player first overall than it is to select him.

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06-16-2012, 06:35 AM
  #46
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Originally Posted by UniverStalinGraduate View Post
4 to 5 years?

I can't think of a single top 5 pick in the last decade at forward who has taken that kind of time to develop into a quality NHL'er.

That's a 10-30 pick, if that's true.
How about those top 5 picks that never lived up to expectations:

'03 - Zherdev
'04 - Barker
'05 - Pouliot
'07 - Hickey

& how about top 10 picks from the past decade that still haven't impacted (top 6 forward or top 4 D-man) their team as projected:

'02 - Upshall, Taticek, Nystrom
'03 - (A good year) Andi Kostitsyn
'04 - Montoya, Olesz, Picard, Valabik
'05 - Brule, Skille, Lee
'06 - Okoposa, Sheppard, Frolik
'07 - Hamill, Alzner, Ellerby
'08 - Filitov, Wilson, Hodgson
'09 - B. Schenn, Kadri, Glennie, Paajarvi


Not saying that any on the latter list won't develop into top players on their team someday, but it shows it takes time to develop some of these kids & the fact that just because some have natural talent oozing out of their pores, doesn't mean they are guaranteed NHL material either.

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06-16-2012, 07:13 AM
  #47
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Looking back over the past decade, it looks like the 2nd & 3rd rounds are favorable for picking up a top four D-man;

2nd rd: Keith, Klein, Carle, S. Weber, Subban, Voynov

3rd rd : Letang, Edler.

Other noteables in the 2nd & 3rd rds : Boychuk, McQuiad, Emelin, Vlasic, Goligoski, O'Byrne, Daley, Matt Greene, Mike Weber, Peckham, Faulk.

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Old
06-16-2012, 09:14 AM
  #48
Grant McCagg
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Originally Posted by LyricalLyricist View Post
To be honest. Many people feel that way. Just surprised Grant felt that was about the near majority choice for #1 overall. At that point, I don't think russian factor comes into play.
Near majority? All the lists you've seen thus far are just those..lists. None of them have been the rankings of an NHL team. This week you will get your first true glimpse of what the "near majority" of NHL teams think are the top ranked prospects when Bob McKenzie reveals his list. Other than my rankings of course. :-)

I would not be shocked if Galchenyuk and TT are the top two players in Bob's rankings.


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Old
06-16-2012, 09:20 AM
  #49
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Originally Posted by Schooner Guy View Post
Kyle Turris, Bobby Ryan, James Van Riemsdyk, Kari Lehtonen, Blake Wheeler are a few that come off the top of my head. I'm sure I could find more if I looked them up. Considering this 2012 draft isn't the strongest draft in terms of top drawer talent, I see no problem in waiting 4-5 years for a player to come into their own if that's what it takes.
Lehtonen isn't a forward.

Turris was drafted out of the BCHL. I'd never take anyone out of a lower league that high.

Based on his opinion, and from what he's learned he feels this is how the rankings go.

However, teams might feel differently about players. TT might be 15th on 1 list, but 1st on another.

Question: Who's one player you've seen/heard can show flashes of dominance in a game, but not consistently enough to be considered a first rounder, but should go in the 2nd, or 3rd ?

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06-16-2012, 09:25 AM
  #50
Grant McCagg
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Originally Posted by NewHabsEra View Post
Personally, I dont know why, but Ive a hard time to believe in TT hype.. The fact he has been used as a winger and didnt prove his worth as a natural center yet is definitively a concern to me, add his serious lack of size and I dont really understand why he should be ranked that high unless his skills are really that outstanding.. Also, if Grigorenko fall that low Im quite speachless.. The upside is too huge to get "snobed" so many times.. On the other side, I think your concerns on Yakupov are legit and should be factored compared to other top prospects' concerns.. Coach Beaulieu also mention that the guy tend to cheat offensively, what is more tolerated in junior but can become a real concern at the NHL level..
Well - an NHL head scout told me TT is a "natural center if I ever saw one." That's good enough for me when it comes to where he will play in the NHL. TT was barely 17 playing in a men's league...he played on the wing during the regular season because that was the only place where there was an opening. Would you not call Tyler Seguin a center? Yet because of numbers he has played on the wing quite often the past two seasons..doesn't mean he won't be a center for the majority of his NHL career.

I don't know why people nitpick about me saying it might take four or five years to reach his full NHL potential. Four years from now he may be a 40-60point scorer..but that doesn't mean he will have reached his full potential.

AS for there being few top five picks who need foru or five years...How many were four days shy of the following year's draft? A four year-wait for TT to reach his potential is almost like a three-year wait...he will still only be 20 years old when he shows up for his fourth NHL training camp.

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