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Old
06-15-2012, 07:44 PM
  #26
Faidh ar Rud Eigin
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I don't know if Ryno is reffering to this or not but whatever...

The best arguement against not bringing in your closer till the end of the game is if your weaker reliever blows it in a pressure situation in the 6th or 7th you have time to come back, in the 9th you don't.

You're not going to be able to say one way is better than the other, especially because no team has done it.

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06-15-2012, 08:11 PM
  #27
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Originally Posted by Prophet of Glennie View Post
I don't know if Ryno is reffering to this or not but whatever...

The best arguement against not bringing in your closer till the end of the game is if your weaker reliever blows it in a pressure situation in the 6th or 7th you have time to come back, in the 9th you don't.

You're not going to be able to say one way is better than the other, especially because no team has done it.

You can get a little closer to the idea of your best reliever pitching earlier in the game with how the original closers or "firemen" were used. Guys like Goose Gossage, Dennis Eckersley (at the start of his closing career), or Bruce Sutter would come out of the pen with runners on or in earlier innings and pitch the rest of the game, be it 1 inning or 3. These old school early closers would have a significant number of inherited runners when they came in and were charged with getting out of tough jams. It worked just as well then as the 9th inning closer does now (the numbers do bear that out), so it begs the question of what's the harm in trying. Hell, the 9th inning closer converts saves at an equal rate to starters from 60+ years ago pitching the whole game when they went into the 9th inning with a lead.

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Old
06-15-2012, 08:14 PM
  #28
Faidh ar Rud Eigin
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The thing is I don't think many "top" closers can go longer than at most an inning and a third. You'd have to condition a whole new generation of relievers to still keep their stamina up.

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06-15-2012, 08:41 PM
  #29
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But what about the reverse situation? You bring a lesser reliever in earlier in the game in a tied or close situation and he blows it. Now your best reliever sits in the pen and potentially doesn't get used because it's not a save situation. Maybe your offence picks up and comes back, maybe it doesn't. But if you never coughed up the lead, this isn't even an issue in the first place.

Also you can't guarantee the heart of the order comes up in the 9th, so that's hardly a relevant point. You could just as easily save your closer for the 9th and it ends up that he faces 4 through 7, or 6 through 8, or 8 through 1. No guarantees.

And the idea that coming into a fresh 9th inning with no one on and a 1-3 run lead is somehow more pressure packed than a tie game in the 6th or 7th with 2 men on base and less than 2 out is tenuous at best. From my perspective, the pressure of the 9th inning is almost entirely artificial. We've built up closers to some sort of quasi-mystical baseball being who have just the right mix of cockiness and mental fortitude to get the job done, and that their mindset is the rarest of rare assets. That's largely the doing of the media, baseball storytellers, and agents looking for big paydays. After all, you couldn't get Jonathan Papelbon a starter-calibre contract if he wasn't all that different from any other good reliever. Especially not when his save conversion rate isn't a whole lot different than the historical average of potential save conversions.

the numbers are pretty clear that looking back all the way to the time when starters were expected to pitch the whole game, through the "firemen" period where your best guy could come in and pitch 2 or 3 innings to close out a game, and all the way through to the 9th inning specialist closer, the chances of you winning the game when you enter the 9th with a lead are nearly identical.

as for this:



That doesn't mean a thing. A few hundred years ago every respected scientist in the world knew with unwavering certainty that Earth was the center of the known universe and the heavens revolved around us. history is filled with smart people believing dumb things because it's what everyone else believes. At least the anti-save crowd can bring some quantitative evidence that is built on pure, unmanipulated raw numbers, and not just anecdotes and fake truisms.
So your telling me that the baseball people who run teams and manage teams are all wrong and should do it your way?

How about you head over to the winter meetings and pitch your idea to GM and watch them tell you to take hike.

Not sure how you brought in an analogy to earth being the center of the universe? Just a total misplace analogy use to make your point

Again you stats guys only look at it from a black and white point of view and with stats manipulated to make your outcome what ou want

How about this go manage a big league team and during them course of a game make your move and then when you get beat in the 9th and now you have to answer to the GM,media,fans and people on this board second guess you. Easy to make the decision in a black and white world based on numbers only and without any emotional consequences to the move back firing

And just because tons of people believe something and you don't doesn't mean it's not true. Math geeks shall never take over the world of baseball haha

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06-15-2012, 08:58 PM
  #30
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Carreno got beat up again tonight. 5er on 6ip

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06-15-2012, 09:05 PM
  #31
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Originally Posted by ryno23 View Post
So your telling me that the baseball people who run teams and manage teams are all wrong and should do it your way?

How about you head over to the winter meetings and pitch your idea to GM and watch them tell you to take hike.

Not sure how you brought in an analogy to earth being the center of the universe? Just a total misplace analogy use to make your point

Again you stats guys only look at it from a black and white point of view and with stats manipulated to make your outcome what ou want

How about this go manage a big league team and during them course of a game make your move and then when you get beat in the 9th and now you have to answer to the GM,media,fans and people on this board second guess you. Easy to make the decision in a black and white world based on numbers only and without any emotional consequences to the move back firing

And just because tons of people believe something and you don't doesn't mean it's not true. Math geeks shall never take over the world of baseball haha
The hypocrisy of accusing me of manipulating the stats (when all I did was post some simple percentages that were very straightforward and not manipulated in any way) when all you continue to do to refute the stat users is construct poor straw man opponents to knock down is delicious.

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06-15-2012, 09:11 PM
  #32
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The hypocrisy of accusing me of manipulating the stats (when all I did was post some simple percentages that were very straightforward and not manipulated in any way) when all you continue to do to refute the stat users is construct poor straw man opponents to knock down is delicious.
Some people just will never change their opinions, even when faced with overwhelming evidence against their opinions. Oh well.

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Old
06-15-2012, 09:30 PM
  #33
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Bluefield and GCL rosters: http://www.battersbox.ca/article.php...240&mode=print

Bluefield roster is totally loaded.

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06-15-2012, 09:54 PM
  #34
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Bluefield and GCL rosters: http://www.battersbox.ca/article.php...240&mode=print

Bluefield roster is totally loaded.
Damn. Too bad they couldn't have shared some of that wealth with Vancouver. All I see of note on the C's roster is Dalton Pompey and Kellen Sweeney. No Sanchez/Syndergaaard/Nicolino 3-headed monster like last year.

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06-15-2012, 10:23 PM
  #35
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Damn. Too bad they couldn't have shared some of that wealth with Vancouver. All I see of note on the C's roster is Dalton Pompey and Kellen Sweeney. No Sanchez/Syndergaaard/Nicolino 3-headed monster like last year.
Yeah they mostly got older guys. Pompey is a really intriguing player though. He can run, plays centerfield, showed some pop last year and shows a really solid plate discipline.

I imagine Vancouver will get some better players mid way when some of Bluefield players get promoted.

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06-15-2012, 10:41 PM
  #36
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Nice seeing Davis and Alford

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06-16-2012, 08:33 AM
  #37
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The thing is I don't think many "top" closers can go longer than at most an inning and a third. You'd have to condition a whole new generation of relievers to still keep their stamina up.
It's nice to have a "closer" so to speak to come in and get the final 3 outs in the 9th but what's the point of having a closer if you don't have relievers who can't retain a lead? We need relievers like back in the day.

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06-16-2012, 08:46 AM
  #38
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Drabeks career is over

Tommy John surgery to be had

This organization is ****ed. McGowan, Drabek, santos, who's next to end there career

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06-16-2012, 09:03 AM
  #39
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Saw the Stilson promotion mentioned but a few others:

Carreno to Vegas
Stilson to NH
Jesse Hernandez to Dunedin.

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06-16-2012, 09:03 AM
  #40
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Drabeks career is over

Tommy John surgery to be had

This organization is ****ed. McGowan, Drabek, santos, who's next to end there career
Is it confirmed that he is indeed having tommy john?

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Old
06-16-2012, 09:08 AM
  #41
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Originally Posted by shaner89 View Post
Drabeks career is over

Tommy John surgery to be had

This organization is ****ed. McGowan, Drabek, santos, who's next to end there career
Drabek's career isnt over. Lots of pitchers undergo Tommy John and come back to have great careers. There have even been reports that players sometimes come back with better velocity than before their injury. Frasor has had 2 Tommy John's and look at how long his career has been going.

McGowan and Santos have had a ton of setbacks, but neither have called it quits. Especially Santos, why the hell would he retire now? You're just being pessimistic.

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06-16-2012, 09:10 AM
  #42
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Is it confirmed that he is indeed having tommy john?
He's getting a second opinion on his injury, but if its confirmed that he has a torn ligament in his elbow then he will need Tommy John and won't be back till about September 2013.

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06-16-2012, 09:14 AM
  #43
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He's getting a second opinion on his injury, but if its confirmed that he has a torn ligament in his elbow then he will need Tommy John and won't be back till about September 2013.
Damn, thanks for the update. I remember reading last night that Drabek said it was a different feeling than when he needed tommy john back in 07, and he even took the field to catch and throw the ball around a little so I was optimistic that he wouldn't of needed it.

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06-16-2012, 09:15 AM
  #44
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With the rookie rosters being released, I wonder if they'll do the piggy backing thing down there with some of the pitchers.

Bluefield for example looks to have 7 starters:
Comer, Kevin
Musgrove, Joe
Robson, Tom
Osuna, Roberto
Norris, Daniel
Gabryszwski, Jeremy
Estrada, Deivy

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06-16-2012, 09:17 AM
  #45
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Shi Davidi‏@ShiDavidi

Quote:
No surprise, Drew Hutchison to DL with ligament sprain. Robert Coello back from Vegas

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06-16-2012, 09:33 AM
  #46
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Also, Sancalino is no more!

Nicolino will start for Lansing today, Sanchez tomorrow!

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06-16-2012, 09:42 AM
  #47
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Originally Posted by TorontoMarleauLeafs View Post
Drabek's career isnt over. Lots of pitchers undergo Tommy John and come back to have great careers. There have even been reports that players sometimes come back with better velocity than before their injury. Frasor has had 2 Tommy John's and look at how long his career has been going.

McGowan and Santos have had a ton of setbacks, but neither have called it quits. Especially Santos, why the hell would he retire now? You're just being pessimistic.
But not a lot have had 2.

Not that Im saying his career is over. But maybe it's over as a starter.

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06-16-2012, 09:43 AM
  #48
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Shi Davidi‏@ShiDavidi
If that's all it is, thank god.

But didn't they originally say Drabek's was a sprain?

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06-16-2012, 10:16 AM
  #49
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some could argue Tommy John is good for a pitcher. They take a tendon which is stronger, from your thigh and attached it to your elbow essentially making it stronger than before.

Strasburg has TJ his 1st season in the bigs and now he is top 5 SP's in the game.

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06-16-2012, 10:31 AM
  #50
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Hopefully Hutch only has a sprain like initial tests show. Two pitchers needing TJ would be too much

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