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JVR Surgery Discussion (update post #356: No hip surgery for JVR, Holmgren confirms)

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06-16-2012, 11:10 AM
  #426
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Originally Posted by Libertine View Post
It would make no sense for the Flyers.
Ryan Murray.

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06-16-2012, 11:16 AM
  #427
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Originally Posted by DownieFaceSoftener View Post
Ryan Murray.
Realistically who will provide more value to the Flyers over the next 3-4 years? JVR + Read or Murray?

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06-16-2012, 11:27 AM
  #428
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Originally Posted by Libertine View Post
Realistically who will provide more value to the Flyers over the next 3-4 years? JVR + Read or Murray?
Murray is a high pedigree potential 1a defenseman with few flaws in his game on both O and D. Rumblings are he may need 1 season in the AHL and then be ready.

He may behave like Cooter and come in right away.

Then again, he may take 3-4 years.

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06-16-2012, 11:39 AM
  #429
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Originally Posted by DownieFaceSoftener View Post
Murray is a high pedigree potential 1a defenseman with few flaws in his game on both O and D. Rumblings are he may need 1 season in the AHL and then be ready.

He may behave like Cooter and come in right away.

Then again, he may take 3-4 years.
He can't go to the AHL.

In a sense, his situation is quite similar to Couturier--he's too good for juniors, but perhaps not quite ready for the NHL.

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06-16-2012, 11:41 AM
  #430
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Originally Posted by jeh82 View Post
He can't go to the AHL.

In a sense, his situation is quite similar to Couturier--he's too good for juniors, but perhaps not quite ready for the NHL.
Larsson was in the same situation, no?

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06-16-2012, 11:50 AM
  #431
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Originally Posted by Go For It View Post
Larsson was in the same situation, no?
Draftees from Europe can go to the AHL; draftees from CHL have to be 20 or have played 4 seasons in juniors... or something like that.

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06-16-2012, 11:51 AM
  #432
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Originally Posted by jeh82 View Post
Draftees from Europe can go to the AHL; draftees from CHL have to be 20 or have played 4 seasons in juniors... or something like that.
Correct

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06-16-2012, 11:53 AM
  #433
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DownieFaceSoftener View Post
Murray is a high pedigree potential 1a defenseman with few flaws in his game on both O and D. Rumblings are he may need 1 season in the AHL and then be ready.

He may behave like Cooter and come in right away.

Then again, he may take 3-4 years.
yeah I can see Flyer fans having the patience to wait for him to develop into a franchise defenseman in 3-4 years if they drafted him
We would have posters calling him a bust in his rookie season


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06-16-2012, 12:30 PM
  #434
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I guess maybe most see JvR's value lower than I do.

I'd think a trade of a prospect like Murray for JvR would be a fair trade. Then again I also think JvR, with a season without injury, will finally put it together. With that logic I simply see the trade as us moving something we have an abundance of (forward) for something we need (defense).

I'll leave it with, I just hope I'm right about JvR.

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06-16-2012, 12:32 PM
  #435
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DownieFaceSoftener View Post
Murray is a high pedigree potential 1a defenseman with few flaws in his game on both O and D. Rumblings are he may need 1 season in the AHL and then be ready.

He may behave like Cooter and come in right away.

Then again, he may take 3-4 years.
Each draft class features a potential franchise defenseman. How many of them actually pan out to be franchise defenders?

Murray will probably play in the NHL next year (whether that is the right decision will be up for debate) but what are the odds he is going to play a significant role? He is years away from his prime.

If you look at most #1 dman most of them spent 2-3 years developing outside of the NHL. Even Pronger who came into the league at 18 took time to develop.

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06-16-2012, 12:35 PM
  #436
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Originally Posted by markzab View Post
I guess maybe most see JvR's value lower than I do.

I'd think a trade of a prospect like Murray for JvR would be a fair trade. Then again I also think JvR, with a season without injury, will finally put it together. With that logic I simply see the trade as us moving something we have an abundance of (forward) for something we need (defense).

I'll leave it with, I just hope I'm right about JvR.
I agree which is why I wouldn't trade him for Murray. JVR will be hitting his prime while an 18 year old Murray is 3-4 years away from his. If you trade JVR it has to be for a proven defender.

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06-16-2012, 12:35 PM
  #437
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Libertine View Post
Each draft class features a potential franchise defenseman. How many of them actually pan out to be franchise defenders?

Murray will probably play in the NHL next year (whether that is the right decision will be up for debate) but what are the odds he is going to play a significant role? He is years away from his prime.

If you look at most #1 dman most of them spent 2-3 years developing outside of the NHL. Even Pronger who came into the league at 18 took time to develop.
Don't be ridiculous dude. Every first round pick wins a Hart Trophy and plays for 20 years at a high level. Haven't you been paying attention? That is why draft picks are so much more valuable than actual NHL players. Come on, man. Get with it.

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06-16-2012, 12:48 PM
  #438
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the flyers are taking a gamble for the fans sake if they keep jvr because if they do keep him and he doesnt produce at all in season or playoffs, they will get nothing back for him unless same gm is crazy to trade of their good players, which is unlikely and they will get a player like walker, i dont want that kind of trade when it means nothing, they need something great in return, while he still has value as least.

i mean at least you are getting a player that's producing like nash rather than taking a gamble on jvr that might not produce at all, at least for this team because no team will want him they will give the flyers ahl trash players. i mean seriously do you really want that?

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06-16-2012, 12:49 PM
  #439
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Originally Posted by Libertine View Post
I agree which is why I wouldn't trade him for Murray. JVR will be hitting his prime while an 18 year old Murray is 3-4 years away from his. If you trade JVR it has to be for a proven defender.
To state the obvious, JVR (by himself) won't get you a similarly aged "proven" defender.

If only other GMs were, you know, dumb, then maybe we could flip JVR for a 23-year old top-pairing defenseman. But we can't.

So the three most likely options appear to be:

1) Roll the dice with Timonen-Coburn-Carle-Grossmann-Mez and hope for the best;
2) package JVR + Schenn or Couturier for Weber (if Nashville will even consider trading him);
or
3) consider moving JVR for a defensive prospect that nearly every scouting professional has said is both NHL-ready and a sure-fire top-4 NHL defenseman.

Schenn, Couturier, even Voracek, are all a few years (at least) away from their prime, so I don't see what the trouble with replacing JVR with Murray is in that respect.

Of course it would depend on the cost--but if the two most valuable assets are JVR + Bob, I don't see how considering a move to #2 is a bad thing...

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06-16-2012, 12:49 PM
  #440
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Originally Posted by DrinkFightFlyers View Post
Don't be ridiculous dude. Every first round pick wins a Hart Trophy and plays for 20 years at a high level. Haven't you been paying attention? That is why draft picks are so much more valuable than actual NHL players. Come on, man. Get with it.
Chance a 1st-round draft pick plays 1000 games in the NHL = 63%
Chance a 1st-round draft pick you don't make contributes to your team = 0%

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06-16-2012, 12:55 PM
  #441
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Originally Posted by jeh82 View Post
To state the obvious, JVR (by himself) won't get you a similarly aged "proven" defender.

If only other GMs were, you know, dumb, then maybe we could flip JVR for a 23-year old top-pairing defenseman. But we can't.

So the three most likely options appear to be:

1) Roll the dice with Timonen-Coburn-Carle-Grossmann-Mez and hope for the best;
2) package JVR + Schenn or Couturier for Weber (if Nashville will even consider trading him);
or
3) consider moving JVR for a defensive prospect that nearly every scouting professional has said is both NHL-ready and a sure-fire top-4 NHL defenseman.

Schenn, Couturier, even Voracek, are all a few years (at least) away from their prime, so I don't see what the trouble with replacing JVR with Murray is in that respect.

Of course it would depend on the cost--but if the two most valuable assets are JVR + Bob, I don't see how considering a move to #2 is a bad thing...
Obviously, but I'd rather trade something along with JVR to get a proven young defender. There is a wide range of options between acquiring Weber and overpaying for an unproven 18 year old.

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06-16-2012, 12:58 PM
  #442
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Originally Posted by DrinkFightFlyers View Post
Don't be ridiculous dude. Every first round pick wins a Hart Trophy and plays for 20 years at a high level. Haven't you been paying attention? That is why draft picks are so much more valuable than actual NHL players. Come on, man. Get with it.
The three posters above me have made decent points.

What you're alluding to is staggeringly .... misinformed and the smugness by which you say it... gross.

Exactly how many players would it take to get the #1 overall (Nail)?

Right. Players are always, always, always, more worthwhile than picks.

In reality, sometimes players are worth more than picks, other times not. Case by case.

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06-16-2012, 12:59 PM
  #443
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Originally Posted by DrinkFightFlyers View Post
Don't be ridiculous dude. Every first round pick wins a Hart Trophy and plays for 20 years at a high level. Haven't you been paying attention? That is why draft picks are so much more valuable than actual NHL players. Come on, man. Get with it.
I've typed, deleted, and re-typed about three times in an effort to respond to this, but I think the best approach might be this:

Which do you think more likely, that JVR wins a Hart Trophy, or that Murray wins a Norris?

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06-16-2012, 01:01 PM
  #444
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Originally Posted by jeh82 View Post
I've typed, deleted, and re-typed about three times in an effort to respond to this, but I think the best approach might be this:

Which do you think more likely, that JVR wins a Hart Trophy, or that Murray wins a Norris?
lol. I did the same thing. It took me several attempts not to say something vulgar or insulting.

It should be obvious that sometimes players are worth more than picks and other times not.

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06-16-2012, 01:02 PM
  #445
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Obviously, but I'd rather trade something along with JVR to get a proven young defender. There is a wide range of options between acquiring Weber and overpaying for an unproven 18 year old.
Like what?

Seriously, what options do you think are available for trade in which JVR will be the most significant asset?

Maybe there are options I haven't thought of. When I pitched JVR or Voracek + for Kulikov, it was scoffed at. Ditto for Bogosian.

The response was pretty much always the same: start with Schenn or Couturier and add.

Now I'm not foolish enough to think that GMs hold the same general valuations of players as fans, but i think it is a bit absurd to think that JVR can net an young, stud defenseman, given his inconsistency and (now) injury concerns.

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06-16-2012, 01:08 PM
  #446
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So by that statement your are saying JVR is a bust? I am not ready to say that yet. However I have no problem with him being traded also. BTW your avatar sucks
I'm saying people keep acting like he's elite because he was a 2nd overall pick. He has been in the league long enough to have shown something outside of a few games in the 2010 playoffs. His draft year was a weak one so being 2nd overall isn't that big a deal. He hasn't lived up to his draft position.

Look at the young guys Edmonton has, Hall, Eberle, Seguin in Boston, high draft picks and in more recent years and they've lived up to their draft position.

And I love my avatar!

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06-16-2012, 01:17 PM
  #447
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Like what?

Seriously, what options do you think are available for trade in which JVR will be the most significant asset?

Maybe there are options I haven't thought of. When I pitched JVR or Voracek + for Kulikov, it was scoffed at. Ditto for Bogosian.

The response was pretty much always the same: start with Schenn or Couturier and add.

Now I'm not foolish enough to think that GMs hold the same general valuations of players as fans, but i think it is a bit absurd to think that JVR can net an young, stud defenseman, given his inconsistency and (now) injury concerns.
There are rumors that Bouwmeester might be available. That is certainly an option. He's overpaid, but he can play on a top pairing.

The problem is you are being scoffed at by fans. Flyers fans scoffed at Pitkanen being traded for Lupul, but it happened. At the end of the day none of us really know who is available and what it would cost to acquire them.

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06-16-2012, 01:44 PM
  #448
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Chance a 1st-round draft pick plays 1000 games in the NHL = 63%
But that isn't what your source is saying. They state that 63% of all players drafted in the first round become what they call "career players" which they have defined at 200 games, not 1000.


As for JvR I think the next year will be his "make or break" year where he'll have to perform for the whole season (if he stays healthy that is), if he doesn't I think he risks being traded.

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06-16-2012, 02:07 PM
  #449
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But that isn't what your source is saying. They state that 63% of all players drafted in the first round become what they call "career players" which they have defined at 200 games, not 1000.


As for JvR I think the next year will be his "make or break" year where he'll have to perform for the whole season (if he stays healthy that is), if he doesn't I think he risks being traded.
The longer we wait the more his value goes down. It just really sucks that the guy picked before him already has 369 career points and doesn't even have 100 yet.

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06-16-2012, 02:09 PM
  #450
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The longer we wait the more his value goes down. It just really sucks that the guy picked before him already has 369 career points and doesn't even have 100 yet.
If it makes you feel better, the guy who went after him only has 75...

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