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06-17-2012, 10:45 AM
  #1
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NYR Advanced Satistics 2011-12 Season

http://the6thsens.com/PlayerUsageCharts2011-12.pdf

Couple things I found interesting:

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Itís almost laughable how some Ranger fans believe that the team could be better off without Dubinsky, who in reality was one of the best NYR forwards despite his poor shooting luck.
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On the flip side, I hope Sather does not let John Mitchell walk, who had a great under-the-radar type of season.
It is pretty interesting to note, but I'm not surprised by Mitchell's possession numbers. We always complain about him dangling through a whole team and setting off terrible passes/scoring attempts despite making all those dangles, hence his nickname Johnny Malkin.

Dubinsky, I am really shocked to see his possession numbers. I think his general scoring was down this year due to terrible shooting luck and was integrated as a defensive forward strictly as opposed to the 2-way player he was last year.

The Rangers section pretty much says the team was anchored by McDonagh-Girardi pairing.

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06-17-2012, 11:07 AM
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The comments about Dubinsky and Mitchell are what I had been saying all year. The only thing I would say about Dubinsky is that he was noticeably less physical in the offensive zone compared to 2010-11 and it got worse over the course of the season. He looked better once he game back in the playoffs, but it was a two game sample.

It's always nice to have some statistics to back up my analysis of players through observation.

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06-17-2012, 11:25 AM
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The comments about Dubinsky and Mitchell are what I had been saying all year. The only thing I would say about Dubinsky is that he was noticeably less physical in the offensive zone compared to 2010-11 and it got worse over the course of the season. He looked better once he game back in the playoffs, but it was a two game sample.

It's always nice to have some statistics to back up my analysis of players through observation.
Yup, and I think his lack of physicality was because he was often forgetting to keep his feet moving, and thus, wasn't there in time to make a hit. Dubi is not nearly good enough to get by coasting around. He needs to keep his feet moving and constantly be on "go" mode like Callahan. This past year he'd hit the offensive blue-line and stop skating. Not sure why, but his problems are 100% mental. He has all the physical tools to be a consistent 20g,30a player, if not more.

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06-17-2012, 11:32 AM
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i think dubinsky's physically very talented and hard-working. his problem is a lack of hockey sense. particularly at the offensive end. he just doesn't have that 'knack' that good goal-scorers have. he tends to chase the play rather than anticipate it.

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06-17-2012, 11:39 AM
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Originally Posted by egelband View Post
i think dubinsky's physically very talented and hard-working. his problem is a lack of hockey sense. particularly at the offensive end. he just doesn't have that 'knack' that good goal-scorers have. he tends to chase the play rather than anticipate it.
Agreed. And for that reason I think that even in a good season, his goal total will be right around 20, but when he HAS the puck he's a little better, so I think he can be a 20g,30a guy easily if he keeps his feet moving and uses his strength to his advantage.

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06-17-2012, 12:24 PM
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You could pull out a whacky statistic that Dubinsky has saved 14 babies from falling out of apartment windows it still wouldn't make up for a $4.2m cap hit on a 10 goal, 34 point season.

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06-17-2012, 12:45 PM
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The advanced statistics continue to overrate Mitchell's puck possession. Yes, he possesses the puck. What else does he do? Nothing. The only way his season was under the radar is if you think hockey metrics are as advanced as SABR.

Advanced hockey stats are nowhere near as legitimate or effective as baseball Sabremetrics right now. Sorry, but it's true. We already know that Mitchell can possess the puck.

I mean, I don't understand how you can legitimately argue Mitchell brought more to the team than Fedotenko based on his "puck possession" skills.

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06-17-2012, 12:52 PM
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dubi had a 25% increase in his hits this season over last.. that's sort of an increase in physicality, no? i agree his foot movement sucked and he couldn't hit a bus, but it certainly wasn't because he wasn't hitting... maybe not as big quality hits? idk. his foot movement is the only thing that i noticed absolutely sucked this season

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06-17-2012, 12:58 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wr50l View Post
You could pull out a whacky statistic that Dubinsky has saved 14 babies from falling out of apartment windows it still wouldn't make up for a $4.2m cap hit on a 10 goal, 34 point season.
Or the 54 point season the year before on the deal that paid him half of that 4.2.

See, the argument works both ways.

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06-17-2012, 01:07 PM
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Originally Posted by wr50l View Post
You could pull out a whacky statistic that Dubinsky has saved 14 babies from falling out of apartment windows it still wouldn't make up for a $4.2m cap hit on a 10 goal, 34 point season.
plenty of guys are overpaid and don't perform to their salary on either end of the ice. (see rick nash) at least dubinsky was more than adequate on one end. he underperformed offensively, but it didn't kill us. we still had our best season in years. we did better with him than without him in the playoffs (and regular season). do i think he'll get back to 50 points? nope(well maybe a few more times in his career). we have more scoring to put in the goals w/ richards and gaborik's resurgence. dubi wasn't looking for the shot as much this year(~140 to ~210 shots last year to the year before). but until his salary is hurting us (ie somebody of equal/similar value is available to get rid of him for for less money) i want him on this team.

this year he's more conservative because he can't afford to make mistakes when we're up a goal or he knows other guys can score so he plays held back. there were a few shifts this season where we were losing and he went past what would be considered safe (ie playing the puck dangerously through the defenseman's legs to get into the zone with risking a bad turnover). i don't think that's entirely the reason, but you had to notice that the kid played a lot more to the 'safe is death' mentality.


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06-17-2012, 01:10 PM
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Originally Posted by BlueshirtBlitz View Post
The advanced statistics continue to overrate Mitchell's puck possession. Yes, he possesses the puck. What else does he do? Nothing. The only way his season was under the radar is if you think hockey metrics are as advanced as SABR.

Advanced hockey stats are nowhere near as legitimate or effective as baseball Sabremetrics right now. Sorry, but it's true. We already know that Mitchell can possess the puck.

I mean, I don't understand how you can legitimately argue Mitchell brought more to the team than Fedotenko based on his "puck possession" skills.
I couldn't agree more. I can't stand the importance some hockey fans place on these stats, that paint an entirely incomplete picture of the sport.

Puck possession is without a doubt one of the keys to winning hockey games. But when you're a big body with average skill, puck possession is something you should be able to do. The problem is, guys like Mitchell and Dubinsky, for all the time they carry the puck, weren't able to do anything with it.

Similarly, the offensive zone stars statistic is extremely misleading. The Rangers are not one of the most talented teams in the league. Our top lines are less talented than the top lines of the better teams in the league, and thanks to the fact that big bodied master of possession Dubinsky failed to do anything with all his time carrying the puck, they're also unreasonably small. Our LWs this season were a rookie two-way forward and a rotating cast of bottom six players. Our guys were obviously going to get out played by the top lines of good teams. The fact that Callahan, Richards, Gaborik, etc. spent less time holding on to the puck than Dubinsky and Mitchell doesn't mean that the latter were outperforming the former, even with the offensive zone start advantage.

Look at Fedotenko and Rupp. Feds can't carry the puck. He's a defensive minded forward who has a reasonable shot, but he's playing (except for that one stretch on the second line) with guys who have even worse hands than he does. How are they going to possess the puck?

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06-17-2012, 01:19 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pld459666 View Post
Or the 54 point season the year before on the deal that paid him half of that 4.2.

See, the argument works both ways.
So because he is underpaid last year we're all happy as Larry that he is overpaid this year and potentially for the next several years. This is a 'what are you doing for me now' business. The argument only works both ways if you're desperate.

Quote:
plenty of guys are overpaid and don't perform to their salary on either end of the ice. (see rick nash) at least dubinsky was more than adequate on one end.
I'm glad that by adding him into the leaguewide pool of inadequate players he no longer counts as one on his own.

Every stat in the world can be produced, the bottom line is I watched at least 90 Rangers games in full this season and what I saw consistently was a guy whose good nights were +/- 0. That's not good use of $4.2m salary and these sabrmetric fools are dense to portray it as though putting an expensive forward in predominantly defensive positions is swell because that's all he's done well is ok and can't be improved upon.

And let the record show: that if Dubinsky plays like a $4.2m player next year I will praise him as one because I bear no grudge I just want to see the rangers win.

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06-17-2012, 01:21 PM
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Originally Posted by NYR Sting View Post
I couldn't agree more. I can't stand the importance some hockey fans place on these stats, that paint an entirely incomplete picture of the sport.

Puck possession is without a doubt one of the keys to winning hockey games. But when you're a big body with average skill, puck possession is something you should be able to do. The problem is, guys like Mitchell and Dubinsky, for all the time they carry the puck, weren't able to do anything with it.

Similarly, the offensive zone stars statistic is extremely misleading. The Rangers are not one of the most talented teams in the league. Our top lines are less talented than the top lines of the better teams in the league, and thanks to the fact that big bodied master of possession Dubinsky failed to do anything with all his time carrying the puck, they're also unreasonably small. Our LWs this season were a rookie two-way forward and a rotating cast of bottom six players. Our guys were obviously going to get out played by the top lines of good teams. The fact that Callahan, Richards, Gaborik, etc. spent less time holding on to the puck than Dubinsky and Mitchell doesn't mean that the latter were outperforming the former, even with the offensive zone start advantage.

Look at Fedotenko and Rupp. Feds can't carry the puck. He's a defensive minded forward who has a reasonable shot, but he's playing (except for that one stretch on the second line) with guys who have even worse hands than he does. How are they going to possess the puck?
part of that chart points out how many shots the opposition was limited to in comparison to our team while the player was on the ice. when dubinsky was on the ice significantly less shots were made by the other team than by the rangers... and he was playing against ~2nd liners (if i read the chart correctly)

which is really what puck possession is all about. he stilll managed to be a +16(yes it's an overrated stat, but it's still important to note). meaning while he was on the ice 16 more goals were scored by the rangers than against due to that collective puck possession. that's a big part of the game. that's how you win hockey games.

could he have done better? without a doubt! he's over paid though. and regardless of how many empty net goals he gets, he's still doing all the right things on 2/3 ends of the ice.

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06-17-2012, 01:25 PM
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These stats to me are fun to look at, but are still no substitute for just watching the games. When you watch every game like all of us on here do, you can clearly see which stats are legit and which stats are funky.

Yeah Mitchell's circle looks effective, but if you watch the games you know the fact that he holds the puck too long skews his possession totals, which is a weakness in his game, not a strength as the stats would imply. He is also ineffective when he does decide to move the puck. Compare this to guys like Richards and Gaborik who tend to have low possession because they're constantly moving the puck. These stats are a little dicey.

Some stats on the other hand, you can see are definitely legit. We know the top pairing's ridiculous QoC rating is fair because we know they're always out there against the first line.

Ultimately these stats are only a sometimes skewed reflection of the only true evaluator: watching the games.

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06-17-2012, 01:33 PM
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Originally Posted by mooskating View Post
part of that chart points out how many shots the opposition was limited to in comparison to our team while the player was on the ice. when dubinsky was on the ice significantly less shots were made by the other team than by the rangers... and he was playing against ~2nd liners (if i read the chart correctly)

which is really what puck possession is all about. he stilll managed to be a +16(yes it's an overrated stat, but it's still important to note). meaning while he was on the ice 16 more goals were scored by the rangers than against due to that collective puck possession. that's a big part of the game. that's how you win hockey games.

could he have done better? without a doubt! he's over paid though. and regardless of how many empty net goals he gets, he's still doing all the right things on 2/3 ends of the ice.
No one denies that he's a good defensive forward. Even his biggest detractors here don't deny that. He's one of the team's best in that regard. But he carries a $4.2 million cap hit. And by failing to provide more than a role player would, he did far more to hurt the team this season than to help it. He created the biggest hole in this team's lineup, and in turn, he brought down the "advanced" numbers of some of the other players on the team, because now they had to make due with inferior assistance on the LW.

Frans Nielsen is one of the best defensive forwards in the league, better than Dubinsky. He costs $2.75 million.

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06-17-2012, 01:37 PM
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Scored alot more too ^^

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06-17-2012, 01:57 PM
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i think this year was out of the ordinary for him, rather than what he will be for the next 3 years. It was his lowest scoring season, and the year before he was our leading point scorer.

For the next three years, i think he will be a consistent 55-65 point, 2-way guy that's not afraid to hit or drop the gloves, and can control the boards very well. I really think this past season is not the Dubi we will see. He will grow up this year... but i know i am being seriously optimistic.

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06-17-2012, 01:58 PM
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Yeah Frans Nielsen's advanced stats are very impressive. What a stud.

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06-17-2012, 03:25 PM
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exactly. nielsen was a steal. frans nielsen is a little underpaid. dubi is a little overpaid.

nash is overpaid and we have people drooling over him. 7.8 million for 30 goals despite being a -19 (was -26 at one point in the season) no thanks. as overrated as that stat is, it's important to note. he was the worst +/- on that team foreverrrrr... worst in the league for a good while.

we're not going to get somebody at his level for him at 2 mill or possibly even 3mil unless it's somebody we get in house or as part of a bigger trade. we might be able to package him and get somebody of greater value and that would be excellent, but he held his own during the regular season. i don't mind losing the 4 mill right now, but he's certainly not in a cap-dump situation... even after another year played exactly like this year i wouldn't say he's a cap dump guy.

idk.. i don't think he's getting paid fair, but he's not killing our cap. he might be 1-1.8 million over his value. he's a d-first / safe is death guy. you don't see him scoring unless he makes risky plays. he had no reason to make risky plays this season.

i don't think the player has really gotten much worse over last year aside from the skating. his stats last season were padded with empty netters.

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06-17-2012, 04:07 PM
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it pains me to see that Tortorella doesnít trust
Avery who has a career track record of moving the puck forward and actually drawing more penalties than he
takes (along with a scoring touch).
Figured I'd post that little tidbit on here

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06-17-2012, 04:32 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wr50l View Post
So because he is underpaid last year we're all happy as Larry that he is overpaid this year and potentially for the next several years. This is a 'what are you doing for me now' business. The argument only works both ways if you're desperate.



I'm glad that by adding him into the leaguewide pool of inadequate players he no longer counts as one on his own.

Every stat in the world can be produced, the bottom line is I watched at least 90 Rangers games in full this season and what I saw consistently was a guy whose good nights were +/- 0. That's not good use of $4.2m salary and these sabrmetric fools are dense to portray it as though putting an expensive forward in predominantly defensive positions is swell because that's all he's done well is ok and can't be improved upon.

And let the record show: that if Dubinsky plays like a $4.2m player next year I will praise him as one because I bear no grudge I just want to see the rangers win.
A simple turn in luck--a normalizing of his shooting percentage--will have him producing like a $4M player.

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06-17-2012, 04:40 PM
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something interesting. Pretty much everyone says he can't fight. This is only 50% true. He couldn't fight this year, the same way he couldn't score. Before last season he was a good fighter. Not great, but pretty good (partially because he fought skill players. Still, he took Ovechkin and Richards off the ice)

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06-17-2012, 05:00 PM
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Fighting? Who gives a rat's ass about fighting? I don't care if he ever has another fight in this league. He's supposed to be a top six LW, not a third line special teams role player. No one doubts his physical abilities, his tools. It's all in his head. He has to accept his niche in this league, he has to accept what he can and can't do, and he has to focus. It's troublesome that he still can't do that.

$4.2 million is not chump change, and overpaying, even by $1-1.5 million is not something to scoff at. You can only afford to overpay so many players in a salary cap league, and generally, if you're going to overpay someone, it makes a lot more sense to overpay a guy who is at least going to score a lot, because as important as great defensive play is, it's never going to equate to big time offense.

Now, that doesn't mean that I'm advocating for Nash. I want NO part of Nash, because he isn't just overpaid, but the term on his contract is horrible. But it's a lot easier to find someone to play the defense Dubinsky does than it is to provide the offense that Dubinsky should be providing at his cap hit.

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06-17-2012, 05:01 PM
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something interesting. Pretty much everyone says he can't fight. This is only 50% true. He couldn't fight this year, the same way he couldn't score. Before last season he was a good fighter. Not great, but pretty good (partially because he fought skill players. Still, he took Ovechkin and Richards off the ice)
Thing with Dubinsky is, he's not really a fighter, and he's pretty good against other non-fighters, but then he fights scabs like Carter who get paid to punch people, and it gets ugly.

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06-17-2012, 05:12 PM
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Fighting? Who gives a rat's ass about fighting? I don't care if he ever has another fight in this league.
While yes, we shouldn't be paying him to fight against goons, it's fighting skill players that actually helps. Even if he's a 60 point player, if he fights 80 point players it helps us. Imagine we're up 1 against the Caps with 5 minutes to play, and Dubi takes Ovechkin off the ice. Again, fighting is far from the most important part of his game, but it's something that I noticed this year. Instead of him taking better players off, he's had worse players taking him off

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