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Old
06-18-2012, 10:35 AM
  #151
Haute Couturier
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Quote:
Originally Posted by flyersfan9180 View Post
Tom Wilson is the only pick that will piss me off.

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06-18-2012, 10:42 AM
  #152
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Originally Posted by Libertine View Post
Tom Wilson is the only pick that will piss me off.
i agree. anyone else would be ok in my book, let someone else reach for Wilson.

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06-18-2012, 10:43 AM
  #153
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Originally Posted by healthyscratch View Post
I'm in the don't draft Tom Wilson crowd. He's everything they love, and everything we hate. Pencil him in.
He's not everything I hate. I'd love a Lucic type player on the Flyers.

The problem is that Wilson is a whole lot more Chris Neil than Milan Lucic. Not that I dislike Neil either, but he's just not the type of upside you're looking for at the 20th overall pick.

For a team that admittedly needs defense, has a ton of young forwards, no defensive prospects of consequence, and in a defensively deep draft, Tom Wilson just isn't the type of guy your reach on. He won't be the BPA available and he definitely isn't drafting for organizational need. Just because you like a players game, does not make him the right fit. I have been concerned about a Wilson type guy the entire time as I've posted before. The Flyers just can't get out of that mindset from the 70s sometimes.

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06-18-2012, 10:53 AM
  #154
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Broad Street Elite View Post
He's not everything I hate. I'd love a Lucic type player on the Flyers.

The problem is that Wilson is a whole lot more Chris Neil than Milan Lucic. Not that I dislike Neil either, but he's just not the type of upside you're looking for at the 20th overall pick.

For a team that admittedly needs defense, has a ton of young forwards, no defensive prospects of consequence, and in a defensively deep draft, Tom Wilson just isn't the type of guy your reach on. He won't be the BPA available and he definitely isn't drafting for organizational need. Just because you like a players game, does not make him the right fit. I have been concerned about a Wilson type guy the entire time as I've posted before. The Flyers just can't get out of that mindset from the 70s sometimes.
This seems like a pretty balanced analysis.

Good post.



EDIT: To add, though, Neal was actually a PPG player in the OHL in his draft year; Wilson barely managed half that. It is possible that Neil is Wilson's ceiling, rather than projection.

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06-18-2012, 10:59 AM
  #155
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Broad Street Elite View Post
He's not everything I hate. I'd love a Lucic type player on the Flyers.

The problem is that Wilson is a whole lot more Chris Neil than Milan Lucic. Not that I dislike Neil either, but he's just not the type of upside you're looking for at the 20th overall pick.

For a team that admittedly needs defense, has a ton of young forwards, no defensive prospects of consequence, and in a defensively deep draft, Tom Wilson just isn't the type of guy your reach on. He won't be the BPA available and he definitely isn't drafting for organizational need. Just because you like a players game, does not make him the right fit. I have been concerned about a Wilson type guy the entire time as I've posted before. The Flyers just can't get out of that mindset from the 70s sometimes.
I think anyone would take a 30 goal scorer like Lucic. Lucic's value is that he is a 30 goal scorer who just happens to be a big, tough guy.

Wilson is the type of player many of us hate. The big, tough guy with a questionable skill level.

I agree he isn't the type of guy you reach on, but they need everything but goaltending in the farm system.

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06-18-2012, 11:04 AM
  #156
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They reached for Downie. Just saying.

Although I think that was still Clarke

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06-18-2012, 11:09 AM
  #157
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Libertine View Post
I think anyone would take a 30 goal scorer like Lucic. Lucic's value is that he is a 30 goal scorer who just happens to be a big, tough guy.

Wilson is the type of player many of us hate. The big, tough guy with a questionable skill level.

I agree he isn't the type of guy you reach on, but they need everything but goaltending in the farm system.
I'd be happy to have a Milan Lucic-type physical presence even if he was a 15g 15a guy for our 4th line. That's basically a bigger, more physical version of Max Talbot. The trouble is that with better numbers at a similar age, Lucic was selected 50th overall and Talbot 234th overall.

Basically, I have nothing against Tom Wilson and he could become a solid NHL player that helps a team win. I just don't see enough offensive or defensive upside to warrant a top 20 pick. Perhaps somewhere are 30+, it's worth a gamble, but at 20, there will be considerable other more developed talent.

If they're enamored with Tom Wilson, they should trade their first to a team like Columbus for 2012 and 2013 second rounders. They can take Wilson there and get what projects as another top 35 pick next season.

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06-18-2012, 11:09 AM
  #158
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jd2210 View Post
They reached for Downie. Just saying.

Although I think that was still Clarke
Downie was a much more accomplished junior player than Wilson--both in the CHL and the WJC--and the pick was 29 instead of 20--not an insignificant gap when you're trying to find value.

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06-18-2012, 11:12 AM
  #159
Haute Couturier
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jd2210 View Post
They reached for Downie. Just saying.

Although I think that was still Clarke
Downie was over a point per game in his draft year. He was a reach compared to his rankings, but he showed legit first round talent.

Downie - 1.20 ppg
Wilson - .55 ppg

Even our 3rd round pick last year was at a point per game.

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06-18-2012, 11:16 AM
  #160
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jeh82 View Post
Downie was a much more accomplished junior player than Wilson--both in the CHL and the WJC--and the pick was 29 instead of 20--not an insignificant gap when you're trying to find value.
They also traded down to get him. They actually traded down from pick 20 to draft him @ 29.

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06-18-2012, 11:18 AM
  #161
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jeh82 View Post
Downie was a much more accomplished junior player than Wilson--both in the CHL and the WJC--and the pick was 29 instead of 20--not an insignificant gap when you're trying to find value.
Came to post this.

Wilson is easily the most raw of the projects getting first round attention. The only attraction to Wilson for me is that he's probably close to AHL ready now and NHL ready in a year (as a 4th liner). He'll be a mediocre defensive player and his offensive upside is based almost entirely on a beastly playoff run where he was PPG and compared favorably to other NHL prospect forwards such as JT Miller.

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06-18-2012, 11:20 AM
  #162
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Honestly, can someone give me a two-sentence explanation of how Wilson came to be regarded as a first round talent?

I've done a bit of reading, and none of it makes sense.

For example:

Quote:

12 - BUFFALO SABRES
THOMAS WILSON, RW, PLYMOUTH (OHL)
SKINNY:
Tremendous size (6-4, 203), tenaciousness (141 PIM) and scoring touch (27 points)
http://www.nhl.com/ice/page.htm?id=8...site-Draft2012

Ok. Size, check. Scoring touch?

Quote:
22 PITTSBURGH PENGUINS
THOMAS WILSON, RW, PLYMOUTH (OHL)
SKINNY:
Prototypical power forward has a nose for the net and a nasty edge to his game
http://www.nhl.com/ice/page.htm?id=80917

Again, I see the size, but "nose for the net?" Kid had like 9 goals in junior.

Jody Shelley potted 25 in the QMJHL once upon a time...


Quote:
Originally Posted by Broad Street Elite View Post
Came to post this.

Wilson is easily the most raw of the projects getting first round attention. The only attraction to Wilson for me is that he's probably close to AHL ready now and NHL ready in a year (as a 4th liner). He'll be a mediocre defensive player and his offensive upside is based almost entirely on a beastly playoff run where he was PPG and compared favorably to other NHL prospect forwards such as JT Miller.
That looks like my answer--a playoff run in which he showed some offensive touch?

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06-18-2012, 11:21 AM
  #163
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Broad Street Elite View Post
I'd be happy to have a Milan Lucic-type physical presence even if he was a 15g 15a guy for our 4th line. That's basically a bigger, more physical version of Max Talbot. The trouble is that with better numbers at a similar age, Lucic was selected 50th overall and Talbot 234th overall.

Basically, I have nothing against Tom Wilson and he could become a solid NHL player that helps a team win. I just don't see enough offensive or defensive upside to warrant a top 20 pick. Perhaps somewhere are 30+, it's worth a gamble, but at 20, there will be considerable other more developed talent.

If they're enamored with Tom Wilson, they should trade their first to a team like Columbus for 2012 and 2013 second rounders. They can take Wilson there and get what projects as another top 35 pick next season.
I think anyone would be happy with a 30 point player on the 4th line regardless of their size or physicality.

The point is as you are essentially pointing out is that you don't take players with a questionable skill level like Wilson in the first round. He is the classic case of a player they are falling in love with over his size and physicality and are ignoring his obvious lack of skill. If they want a rugged 4th liner. Fine take him in the 3rd or 4th round. Don't waste your best chance to nab skill on a meathead.

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06-18-2012, 11:33 AM
  #164
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jeh82 View Post
Downie was a much more accomplished junior player than Wilson--both in the CHL and the WJC--and the pick was 29 instead of 20--not an insignificant gap when you're trying to find value.
Downie was rated in the mid 70s when the Flyers picked him tho. The similarities are there. Did Downie's play justify the pick? that is debatable. But again it wouldnt shock me if the Flyers went off the board.
Everyone knows the Flyers need defenseman. Everyone also knows the Flyers dont have patience with young defenseman as well. Sadly I could see the Flyers drafting Wilson. Now if the Flyers somehow got a mid to late 2nd and took him I wouldnt be upset about it. but at 20? it will be a mistake.

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06-18-2012, 12:21 PM
  #165
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GoneFullHolmgren View Post
Downie was rated in the mid 70s when the Flyers picked him tho. The similarities are there. Did Downie's play justify the pick? that is debatable. But again it wouldnt shock me if the Flyers went off the board.
Everyone knows the Flyers need defenseman. Everyone also knows the Flyers dont have patience with young defenseman as well. Sadly I could see the Flyers drafting Wilson. Now if the Flyers somehow got a mid to late 2nd and took him I wouldnt be upset about it. but at 20? it will be a mistake.
Downie and Wilson aren't similar in the least. Downie was (and is) a tenacious forechecker - that might be the only similarity in their games. Downie was an exceptional playmaker, passer, and a bulldog along the boards. A lot of Wilson's game comes from size and strength - something that does him well in junior but will limit his game a bit against full grown men. Wilson is a better skater than Downie, but I'd take Downie on my team 10 times out of 10 over Wilson.

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06-18-2012, 12:37 PM
  #166
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CharlieGirl View Post
Downie and Wilson aren't similar in the least. Downie was (and is) a tenacious forechecker - that might be the only similarity in their games. Downie was an exceptional playmaker, passer, and a bulldog along the boards. A lot of Wilson's game comes from size and strength - something that does him well in junior but will limit his game a bit against full grown men. Wilson is a better skater than Downie, but I'd take Downie on my team 10 times out of 10 over Wilson.
I didnt mean to imply that they are similar players. Probably should of rephrased that part of the post. Meant to say that they are both "Flyer type players" and both were/are reaches late in round 1.
Knowing what we now now I would take Downie over Wilson on this team. Downie would thrive in Laviolette's system.
I dont know much about some of these kids. I have to go by what I read.
Saw another mock today that had the Flyers taking C Brendan Gaunce from Belleville of the OHL. Just what we need. another center.

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06-18-2012, 01:00 PM
  #167
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GoneFullHolmgren View Post
I didnt mean to imply that they are similar players. Probably should of rephrased that part of the post. Meant to say that they are both "Flyer type players" and both were/are reaches late in round 1.
Knowing what we now now I would take Downie over Wilson on this team. Downie would thrive in Laviolette's system.
I dont know much about some of these kids. I have to go by what I read.
Saw another mock today that had the Flyers taking C Brendan Gaunce from Belleville of the OHL. Just what we need. another center.
Aaah, okay - makes sense now.

Gaunce is a nice player, but certainly not a great need for the Flyers. He does, however, have a clue about the defensive side of the game.

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06-18-2012, 01:03 PM
  #168
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GoneFullHolmgren View Post
I didnt mean to imply that they are similar players. Probably should of rephrased that part of the post. Meant to say that they are both "Flyer type players" and both were/are reaches late in round 1.
Knowing what we now now I would take Downie over Wilson on this team. Downie would thrive in Laviolette's system.
I dont know much about some of these kids. I have to go by what I read.
Saw another mock today that had the Flyers taking C Brendan Gaunce from Belleville of the OHL. Just what we need. another center.
If Gaunce is there at 20, then there's a decent chance that most of the really good defensive prospects are gone--unless a couple of teams go off the board earlier.

He's a much better pick than Wilson, though.


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06-18-2012, 01:19 PM
  #169
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Saw this on Facebook:

Philadelphia Flyers
Holmgren on having the no. 20 pick in the 2012 NHL Draft: "We are happy to be in that position. We think we will get a player there that will be a good prospect."

So I guess we won't try to trade up?

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06-18-2012, 01:23 PM
  #170
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Coffe View Post
Saw this on Facebook:

Philadelphia Flyers
Holmgren on having the no. 20 pick in the 2012 NHL Draft: "We are happy to be in that position. We think we will get a player there that will be a good prospect."

So I guess we won't try to trade up?
Seems like GM speak to me. It doesn't mean they won't try to trade up--but unless we can package the 1st and Bob, I'm not inclined to move another asset to jump a few spots.

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06-18-2012, 01:23 PM
  #171
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Coffe View Post
Saw this on Facebook:

Philadelphia Flyers
Holmgren on having the no. 20 pick in the 2012 NHL Draft: "We are happy to be in that position. We think we will get a player there that will be a good prospect."

So I guess we won't try to trade up?

No gm is going to reveal their plans. That is one of those generic comments that all gm's make. I really wouldn't try to look to much into anything Holmgren says.

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06-18-2012, 01:37 PM
  #172
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I'd be very upset if they don't draft a defenseman in the first round unless there is some sort of backup plan (i.e. Weber, Schenn, J-Bo, etc).

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06-18-2012, 01:38 PM
  #173
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GoneFullHolmgren View Post
Downie was rated in the mid 70s when the Flyers picked him tho. The similarities are there. Did Downie's play justify the pick? that is debatable. But again it wouldnt shock me if the Flyers went off the board.
Everyone knows the Flyers need defenseman. Everyone also knows the Flyers dont have patience with young defenseman as well. Sadly I could see the Flyers drafting Wilson. Now if the Flyers somehow got a mid to late 2nd and took him I wouldnt be upset about it. but at 20? it will be a mistake.
I don't see the similarities there myself.

I am fine with going off the board for a player that displayed a lot of skill as Downie did. It's not as if they took a complete project.

I look at it like this. Scouting is an inexact science. The scouting community gets it wrong frequently. They still have outdated opinions, IMO. Players that have skill but lack size have a tendency to be under valued. We saw it with Giroux, Richards, and Gagne. Downie falls into that category. I also think Cousins falls into that category as well.

At the same time players who earn a reputation for being a big, mean and nasty player to play against tend to be over valued even with questionable skills. We saw it with players like Kassian and McIlrath and now Wilson.

I'm okay with taking a risk on a player from the former category, but not the latter.

Downie fits the Flyers mold except he doesn't. His skill level distinguishes him from their typical goon pick.

Heck Wilson has less offense than Carcillo did in his draft year.

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06-18-2012, 02:19 PM
  #174
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Drafting Tom Wilson at 20 is just about the only stupid thing we can do at the draft.

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06-18-2012, 02:41 PM
  #175
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Originally Posted by Chris Shafer View Post
Drafting Tom Wilson at 20 is just about the only stupid thing we can do at the draft.
Let's not go that far lol. Steve Eminger would disagree.

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