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Old
06-18-2012, 07:51 PM
  #76
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I really cannot see Pavs leaving for the KHL. I'm almost certain his agent is using the KHL option as leverage to get a better contract, but at the same time I don't want to nickle-and-dime our starting goalie.

I think he deserves 3.5, but he'll probably end up getting 4-4.5 million per year. 5+ million/year is where I would draw the line.

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06-18-2012, 08:10 PM
  #77
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Originally Posted by Holden Caulfield View Post
Ondrej Pavelec is in the EXACT same situation as Jonathan Quick a few years ago. Take a look...

Quick
Year - GP - GAA - SVP
07-08 - 3 - 3.85 - .855
08-09 - 44 - 2.48 - .914
09-10 - 72 - 2.54 - .907

Pavelec
Year - GP - GAA - SVP
08-09 - 12 - 3.60 - .880
09-10 - 42 - 3.29 - .906
10-11 - 58 - 2.73 - .914
11-12 - 68 - 2.91 - .906

I think signing him to much more than Quick got would be a mistake, Pavelec is more established but had not shown as much top end talent as Quick to that point.

Quick got 3 years, 1.8 million per season. Anything more than 2.5 is too much for Pavelec.
Don't disagree, his salary should be around $2.5, considering some contracts around the league. But, i get the feeling he negotiates a $3.5/deal.

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06-18-2012, 08:28 PM
  #78
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It's just negotiation. He'll come down from $4 million...that's just his agent's opening position. The Jets were probably hoping to sign him for something like 3 years at 2/2.5/3 and Pavs is probably hoping for a longer deal that starts at 3...like 3/3.5/4/+/+.

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06-18-2012, 08:48 PM
  #79
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Pavs really didn't seem like the kinda guy to use the KHL as leverage .

He is a hell of a goalie, but you can't let him walk all over you and get more than what he is worth. I hope Chevy is prepared to draw the line somewhere reasonable.

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06-18-2012, 08:56 PM
  #80
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Welcome back to the big leagues boys; where it really is all about money.

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06-18-2012, 09:22 PM
  #81
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http://iphone.tsn.ca/tsnpodcasts/Dre...0June%2018.mp3

Interesting words on Cybulski's radio show from Darren Dreger, speculating potential interest in Pavelec from the Leafs. It's a scary thought in my mind, not so much because we would lose Pavelec, who I feel is a fantastic #1 and one you wouldn't want to lose, but because of the potential that Reimer would be part of a return.

Start the Luongo rumors! :p

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06-18-2012, 09:32 PM
  #82
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lethrash View Post
http://iphone.tsn.ca/tsnpodcasts/Dre...0June%2018.mp3

Interesting words on Cybulski's radio show from Darren Dreger, speculating potential interest in Pavelec from the Leafs. It's a scary thought in my mind, not so much because we would lose Pavelec, who I feel is a fantastic #1 and one you wouldn't want to lose, but because of the potential that Reimer would be part of a return.

Start the Luongo rumors! :p
unless we are getting the #5 this year... pavs for reimer isnt happening

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06-18-2012, 09:59 PM
  #83
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Quote:
Originally Posted by King Woodballs View Post
unless we are getting the #5 this year... pavs for reimer isnt happening
Would you do Reimer + Schenn for Pavelec??

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06-18-2012, 10:01 PM
  #84
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Would you do Reimer + Schenn for Pavelec??
Nope

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06-18-2012, 10:05 PM
  #85
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Originally Posted by King Woodballs View Post
Nope
Really? I dunno man I think Schenn is a stud and with a coach like Huddy I think he could do big things here

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06-18-2012, 10:13 PM
  #86
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That doesn't mean we should pay him and arm and a leg, though. Not to mention there are reports saying he wants a long-term deal.

I say give him a 2-3 year deal, I think he'll likely end up getting 3-4 million. Take him 1-2 years before his UFA status then if both sides see a fit, by all means go long-term, 5-6+ years and pay him accordingly.
It's $4 million. That's like 5% of our total cap space. That's not even close to an arm and a leg. And I don't see the problem with giving him a long term deal either. He has shown improvement every year for over 4 years and is still young for a goalie. Even if you overpay a little bit now, you'll likely be underpaying in 2-3 years if not sooner. You'll likely get much better value out of signing him longer term now then in 2-3 years.

And some of you act like getting a young talented goalie with potential to be a top 10 goalie for years is so easy. It's not. Why give up assets to get one when you already have one.

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06-18-2012, 10:17 PM
  #87
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I wouldn't have a problem paying Pavs 4-4.5m but then again it's not my money

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06-18-2012, 10:21 PM
  #88
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Originally Posted by JetNation View Post
Really? I dunno man I think Schenn is a stud and with a coach like Huddy I think he could do big things here
Schenn didn't have the best year but he is exactly the type of defender we could use to round out our top 4 in a year when Ron is more than likely gone.. I don't know that I'd want to trade Pav's for him and Reimer though. I guess it would depend on if Reimer could get his level of play back to where it was before that concussion.

Enstrom Bogosian
Schenn Buff
Stuart Postma

Looks like a very good all around defenseman if Schenn can get back on track.

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06-18-2012, 10:21 PM
  #89
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Originally Posted by Gm0ney View Post
It's just negotiation. He'll come down from $4 million...that's just his agent's opening position. The Jets were probably hoping to sign him for something like 3 years at 2/2.5/3 and Pavs is probably hoping for a longer deal that starts at 3...like 3/3.5/4/+/+.
This is what I think as well. His agent is playing hardball. No surprise there. I'm not going to draw personal conclusions about Pavelec because of it.

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06-18-2012, 10:21 PM
  #90
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Originally Posted by Bob E View Post
I had him more at a Craig Anderson deal - $12.75 over 4 yrs. Or somewhere between Anderson and Halak $15 mill over 4 yrs.

I think he'll be in that $3.5 mill range/yr over 4 yrs. That's not completely out of line. But a bit steep, until he proves he's a capable playoff goaltender.
We kinda need to prove we're a playoff team first.

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06-18-2012, 10:23 PM
  #91
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Originally Posted by JetNation View Post
Really? I dunno man I think Schenn is a stud and with a coach like Huddy I think he could do big things here
While that might be true, I don't think it translates into being true trade value. An unproven backup out of Nashville with limited experience just got 2 2nd Round Picks, a 3rd, and a backup. To me and surely everyone else, that adds up to value that can only go up.

I think it's pretty fair to assume Schneider and Pavelec have similar values on the open market. Dont forget to take into account that Pavelec has been a #1 goalie for a few years, whereas Schneider hasn't yet.

If Toronto really wanted to go after Pavelec, it's going to cost them more than an unproven and disappointing goaltender in Reimer, and a defenceman that we really dont need considering our depth.

So it does come down to that 5th Overall as a starting point, which only really makes sense if it translates into Galchenyuk being available at the time as we could use help down the middle and he's the only top-tier prospect available. Who is available between picks #5-10 on D are in my opinion, interchangeable. Rielly, Dumba, Trouba, Reinhart, Maatta, take your pick, we'll get one of them at our #9 slot.

And to be honest, Toronto doesn't really have anything I'd really want beyond that.

So seems to me that it's obvious, we need to sign Pavelec to a deal thats fair for both sides. And quite frankly, I don't disagree with him wanting a deal in the $4M+ range, as its exactly what people are speculating Schneider will get, and he didn't carry a troubled defensive team on his back last season.

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06-18-2012, 10:34 PM
  #92
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Originally Posted by Duke49 View Post
It's $4 million. That's like 5% of our total cap space. That's not even close to an arm and a leg. And I don't see the problem with giving him a long term deal either. He has shown improvement every year for over 4 years and is still young for a goalie. Even if you overpay a little bit now, you'll likely be underpaying in 2-3 years if not sooner. You'll likely get much better value out of signing him longer term now then in 2-3 years.

And some of you act like getting a young talented goalie with potential to be a top 10 goalie for years is so easy. It's not. Why give up assets to get one when you already have one.
I'm not a fan of paying well over the going rate for a goalie in in his class. A bunch of good young goalies have been brought up in this thread and not one of them made over 4 million or even close to that number. I'm all for paying Paves a fair rate for what he has proven so far with a bit of a premium for potential but that shouldn't be anymore than 3.25 million over 4 years.

Plus you set a dangerous precedence when you give in to demands and overpay. What's to stop some of our other players from following Pav's lead and playing hardball knowing management will cave. Suddenly all that cap space starts to shrink awfully quickly as all the overpays start to add up.

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06-18-2012, 10:42 PM
  #93
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lethrash View Post
http://iphone.tsn.ca/tsnpodcasts/Dre...0June%2018.mp3

Interesting words on Cybulski's radio show from Darren Dreger, speculating potential interest in Pavelec from the Leafs. It's a scary thought in my mind, not so much because we would lose Pavelec, who I feel is a fantastic #1 and one you wouldn't want to lose, but because of the potential that Reimer would be part of a return.

Start the Luongo rumors! :p
I like Dreger usually but he has a habit of pandering to the audience that's listening to him. Toronto station, he'll mention Toronto. I would think that any team would be looking for a goalie like Pavelec, so there's nothing new there.

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06-18-2012, 10:43 PM
  #94
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Originally Posted by surixon View Post
I'm not a fan of paying well over the going rate for a goalie in in his class. A bunch of good young goalies have been brought up in this thread and not one of them made over 4 million or even close to that number. I'm all for paying Paves a fair rate for what he has proven so far with a bit of a premium for potential but that shouldn't be anymore than 3.25 million over 4 years.
Just some numbers from last season:

Jonas Hiller ANA $4,500,000
Rick DiPietro NYI $4,500,000
Antti Niemi SJS $3,800,000
Nikolai KhabibulinEDM $3,750,000
Jaroslav Halak STL $3,750,000
Kari Lehtonen DAL $3,550,000
Pekka Rinne NAS $3,400,000
Craig Anderson OTT $3,188,000
Dwayne Roloson TBL $3,000,000

Of them, only Rinne is in my opinion better than Pavs (Due a hefty raise to say the least), with Hiller being comparable in talent. Stats say one thing, but if we had been playing with Anderson, or Niemi, I think we would have lost a number of games Pavs carried us through. Backstrom, in Minnesota, is being paid $6M a year. So I think 4yr/$16M is something Pavs will live with, and we shouldn't cry about.

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06-18-2012, 10:46 PM
  #95
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Just for further reference I looked at cap geek and only 12 goalies had a cap hit north of 4 million, and only 17 had a ca hit of over 3 million. I think giving Pav's 3.25 to 3.5 which would slot him pretty much dead in the middle is very fair given what he's accomplished to date.

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06-18-2012, 10:57 PM
  #96
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Originally Posted by surixon View Post
Just for further reference I looked at cap geek and only 12 goalies had a cap hit north of 4 million, and only 17 had a ca hit of over 3 million. I think giving Pav's 3.25 to 3.5 which would slot him pretty much dead in the middle is very fair given what he's accomplished to date.
Fair, but 12 goalies is nearly half of all starting goalies in the league, especially when you consider guys like Rinne, Quick, Smith and Howard are all under right now, but due substancial raises. So playing devils advocate here, factor them on top of the 12 and think about the 'cheap' half of starting goaltenders. Many of whom will be playing on non-playoff, sub-par teams who are really using goaltenders on a trial basis (Varlamov, Reimer) or temporary fill-ins (Roloson, Khabibulin, Nabokov). Pavelec is young, brilliantly talented and franchise grown, a real 'keeper' so to speak

I'd take that risk and put him, plus a stronger team in front, and we've got the pieces in place, and that comes at a price we should be willing to pay.

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06-18-2012, 10:57 PM
  #97
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lethrash View Post
Just some numbers from last season:

Jonas Hiller ANA $4,500,000
Rick DiPietro NYI $4,500,000
Antti Niemi SJS $3,800,000
Nikolai KhabibulinEDM $3,750,000
Jaroslav Halak STL $3,750,000
Kari Lehtonen DAL $3,550,000
Pekka Rinne NAS $3,400,000
Craig Anderson OTT $3,188,000
Dwayne Roloson TBL $3,000,000

Of them, only Rinne is in my opinion better than Pavs (Due a hefty raise to say the least), with Hiller being comparable in talent. Stats say one thing, but if we had been playing with Anderson, or Niemi, I think we would have lost a number of games Pavs carried us through. Backstrom, in Minnesota, is being paid $6M a year. So I think 4yr/$16M is something Pavs will live with, and we shouldn't cry about.
Anderson is underrated he has now carried two teams into the playoffs that really had no business being there. His numbers are better as well, what has Pav's done to warrant as much or more than Anderson.

Roloson is old but he was an UFA when he signed and has a pretty good playoff track record which helped him get that contract something Pav's doesn't have.

Halak superior numbers and is playoff proven.

The only ones you could argue are Niemie and The Bulin wall and both of them were paid based on what they had accomplished it doesn't hurt that both have cup rings as starting goalies and Habby had an allstar career.


Last edited by surixon: 06-18-2012 at 11:06 PM.
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06-18-2012, 11:03 PM
  #98
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Originally Posted by Lethrash View Post
Fair, but 12 goalies is nearly half of all starting goalies in the league, especially when you consider guys like Rinne, Quick, Smith and Howard are all under right now, but due substancial raises. So playing devils advocate here, factor them on top of the 12 and think about the 'cheap' half of starting goaltenders. Many of whom will be playing on non-playoff, sub-par teams who are really using goaltenders on a trial basis (Varlamov, Reimer) or temporary fill-ins (Roloson, Khabibulin, Nabokov). Pavelec is young, brilliantly talented and franchise grown, a real 'keeper' so to speak

I'd take that risk and put him, plus a stronger team in front, and we've got the pieces in place, and that comes at a price we should be willing to pay.
I believe he's talented as well but the same could be said about a number of other young goalies, it's entirely conceivable that he only turns into an average number one starter not the top 10 goalie we all hope he becomes.

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06-18-2012, 11:04 PM
  #99
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Originally Posted by surixon View Post
Anderson is underrated he has now carried two teams into the playoffs that really had no business being there. His numbers are better as well, what has Pav's done to warrant as much or more than Anderson.

Roloson is old but he was an UFA when he signed and has a pretty good playoff track record which helped him get that contract something Pav's doesn't have.

Halak superior numbers and is playoff proven.

The only ones you could argue are Niemie and The Bulin wall and both of them were paid based on well both of them have cup rings as starting goalies and Gabby had an allstar career.
I wouldn't say Anderson is a better goaltender than Pavs, at all. Watching the Sens, I don't think he was spectacular whatsoever. The system worked well for him, he saw the shots, and he stopped them. I think saying he 'carried' teams is overboard.

Halak I can understand has great numbers and is proven, but at the time, it was a one-run contract given to a team that just acquired him, after the team he carried let go of him. He wasn't a starter before that, and is splitting his crease time right now as well. Helps you stay fresh and come in to game strong.

I'd honestly, pick Pavelec over that list of guys, Rinne not included. He's proven he can handle a load, and bail his team out game after game. The team needs to make it to the playoffs in order for him to be considered playoff proven, but seeing how intense he is and focused, I don't see that as a challenge to him.

Quote:
I believe he's talented as well but the same could be said about a number of other young goalies, it's entirely conceivable that he only turns into an average number one starter not the top 10 goalie we all hope he becomes.
I honestly hope he can become that top-10, and think he can as well. But when you're looking at a certain list of the elite goaltenders by contract value (Lundqvist, Brodeur, Kiprusoff, Luongo), youre looking at long term commitments at well over $5 M per season, something I wouldnt dare compare Pavelec to. I see where you're coming from, truly, I just feel as though the value and the market say that at $4M, he's fairly priced. Again, the Schneider talk says nearly the same, and I feel they're very comparable.

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06-18-2012, 11:09 PM
  #100
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lethrash View Post
Just some numbers from last season:

Jonas Hiller ANA $4,500,000
Rick DiPietro NYI $4,500,000
Antti Niemi SJS $3,800,000
Nikolai KhabibulinEDM $3,750,000
Jaroslav Halak STL $3,750,000
Kari Lehtonen DAL $3,550,000
Pekka Rinne NAS $3,400,000
Craig Anderson OTT $3,188,000
Dwayne Roloson TBL $3,000,000

Of them, only Rinne is in my opinion better than Pavs (Due a hefty raise to say the least), with Hiller being comparable in talent. Stats say one thing, but if we had been playing with Anderson, or Niemi, I think we would have lost a number of games Pavs carried us through. Backstrom, in Minnesota, is being paid $6M a year. So I think 4yr/$16M is something Pavs will live with, and we shouldn't cry about.
Only Rinne is better? Totally disagree. Hiller, Halak, Lehtonen, and Rinne are all better than Pavelec.

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