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06-18-2012, 11:16 PM
  #101
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My take on the negotiation from the main board:

The progression of goalies is difficult to value compared to skaters. They are much more prone to stagnation or regression. It's a fickle position. For that reason, I'd establish his value for the coming year (say $3.25M) and let him pick the term between 1 and 5 years. He can choose short term and try to improve his numbers to earn a bigger contract, or lock in for up to 5 years and potentially forego higher salary later on if he continues to progress. As much as we like to pretend he was the MVP, his numbers were very pedestrian.

This would be in contrast to how I might handle Kane where I'd be fine having his salary grow later on in his contract since the likelihood that he'll continue to progress is higher.

Giving Pavelec anywhere near $5M for multiple years is crazy and premature. That's my take anyway.

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06-18-2012, 11:17 PM
  #102
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Originally Posted by Primetimey View Post
Only Rinne is better? Totally disagree. Hiller, Halak, Lehtonen, and Rinne are all better than Pavelec.
Always fair to disagree, I just believe Hiller is a quality goaltender, but I don't think if you put him in our crease last year, anything changes for the better whatsoever. Halak is a bit of an unknown to be honest, in the sense that he needs to play a full season of hard-knocks hockey to truly test his ability, and he hasn't had that yet. Lehtonen, at a comparable contract, I wouldn't take and I'm glad that we (when the team was in Atlanta) chose Pavelec over him because of continuous nagging injuries and an apparent lack of physical commitment.

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06-18-2012, 11:18 PM
  #103
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Originally Posted by Duke49 View Post
It's $4 million. That's like 5% of our total cap space. That's not even close to an arm and a leg. And I don't see the problem with giving him a long term deal either. He has shown improvement every year for over 4 years and is still young for a goalie. Even if you overpay a little bit now, you'll likely be underpaying in 2-3 years if not sooner. You'll likely get much better value out of signing him longer term now then in 2-3 years.

And some of you act like getting a young talented goalie with potential to be a top 10 goalie for years is so easy. It's not. Why give up assets to get one when you already have one.
Where did I say 4 million was an arm and a leg? I didn't. I said he'll likely get 3-4 million, which I am fine with.

Now, if the reports are true and he wants a long-term deal, that is risky given he isn't a proven no. 1 goalie yet and if he wants long-term I would guess that is 4-5+ years at at least 5+ million at some point in that deal since he's already 25 in August.

I want to see more of his play during his RFA years before we give him a nice long-term deal based on potential.

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06-18-2012, 11:18 PM
  #104
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Anderson is underrated he has now carried two teams into the playoffs that really had no business being there. His numbers are better as well, what has Pav's done to warrant as much or more than Anderson.

Roloson is old but he was an UFA when he signed and has a pretty good playoff track record which helped him get that contract something Pav's doesn't have.

Halak superior numbers and is playoff proven.

The only ones you could argue are Niemie and The Bulin wall and both of them were paid based on what they had accomplished it doesn't hurt that both have cup rings as starting goalies and Habby had an allstar career.
Yeah, Spezza's and Karlsson's 84 and 78 point seasons respectively had nothing to do with it, yet Andeson's whopping 914% save percentage was such a huge factor. In fact, that's a whopping 0 points higher then what Pavelec put up last year. Anderson is a solid starter, but he has pretty much peaked. Pavelec has plenty of room to STILL grow.

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06-18-2012, 11:24 PM
  #105
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stej View Post
My take on the negotiation from the main board:

The progression of goalies is difficult to value compared to skaters. They are much more prone to stagnation or regression. It's a fickle position...
Well put. Gradually you can, however, get an understanding of whether the goaltender is improving or declining, but of course, over a much longer period of time. I've been following this team since '99, and saw how well Pavelec grew through the Wolves organization and then forced Waddell to make a choice of him or Lehtonen. Then to watch him go from inconsistent to a much more, respectable if unspectacular level of poise in net. All signs with this kid point to growth, and with the 'changing of the guard' happening league-wide in net, with many young goalies taking the reigns, I'd be much more satisfied with someone I've seen over a long period of time push through and develop, and pay for it, over gambling like Chicago with Crawford, or Toronto with Reimer, or San Jose with Niemi.

just my .02

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06-18-2012, 11:25 PM
  #106
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Originally Posted by Guerzy View Post
That doesn't mean we should pay him and arm and a leg, though. Not to mention there are reports saying he wants a long-term deal.
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Originally Posted by Guerzy View Post
Where did I say 4 million was an arm and a leg? I didn't. I said he'll likely get 3-4 million, which I am fine with.

Now, if the reports are true and he wants a long-term deal, that is risky given he isn't a proven no. 1 goalie yet and if he wants long-term I would guess that is 4-5+ years at at least 5+ million at some point in that deal since he's already 25 in August.

I want to see more of his play during his RFA years before we give him a nice long-term deal based on potential.
Unless you meant something else, but that pretty much insinuates that $4 mill is an arm and a leg. Otherwise, I'm not sure where you're thinking we're paying him an arm and a leg.

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06-18-2012, 11:34 PM
  #107
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stej View Post
My take on the negotiation from the main board:

The progression of goalies is difficult to value compared to skaters. They are much more prone to stagnation or regression. It's a fickle position. For that reason, I'd establish his value for the coming year (say $3.25M) and let him pick the term between 1 and 5 years. He can choose short term and try to improve his numbers to earn a bigger contract, or lock in for up to 5 years and potentially forego higher salary later on if he continues to progress. As much as we like to pretend he was the MVP, his numbers were very pedestrian.

This would be in contrast to how I might handle Kane where I'd be fine having his salary grow later on in his contract since the likelihood that he'll continue to progress is higher.

Giving Pavelec anywhere near $5M for multiple years is crazy and premature. That's my take anyway.
Every single stat a goalie has is really a team stat. GAA is totally a team stat. Save percentage is a direct reflection of the quality of opportunities a team allows.

Stats aren't completely irrelevant but if that's what you are using to evaluate goalies, you aren't going to get anything useful out of it. Lots of backups have better stats than their starters. All things being equal (which is possible with numbers but impossible in the dynamic environment of a hockey game) Pavelic is a very difficult goalie to score on and that's the bottom line.

If anyone thinks Brian Elliot is harder to score on than Pavelic they are crazy. If Pavs played for Ken Hitchcock he'd be a Vezina candidate like Steve Mason was. Does anyone think it's a coincidence Hitch always has good goalies? When his players are buying in to his system his goalies post unreal stats, because goalie stats are team stats.

It would really set this team back if we lost Pavelic, hopefully some common ground is found for everyone's sake.

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06-18-2012, 11:37 PM
  #108
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Originally Posted by Duke49 View Post
Unless you meant something else, but that pretty much insinuates that $4 mill is an arm and a leg. Otherwise, I'm not sure where you're thinking we're paying him an arm and a leg.
Read who I quoted and responded to, and the conversation prior to that.

Regardless, I did not say or intend that 4 million was an arm and a leg. Someone said since we have lots of cap space that its no big deal to give Pavelec the money he wants because at this point money doesn't matter for the Jets, in which I responded that just because we have the money and cap space, doesn't mean we should pay an arm and a leg or above and beyond what management believes he is worth.

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06-18-2012, 11:46 PM
  #109
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Le Golie View Post
Every single stat a goalie has is really a team stat. GAA is totally a team stat. Save percentage is a direct reflection of the quality of opportunities a team allows.

Stats aren't completely irrelevant but if that's what you are using to evaluate goalies, you aren't going to get anything useful out of it. Lots of backups have better stats than their starters. All things being equal (which is possible with numbers but impossible in the dynamic environment of a hockey game) Pavelic is a very difficult goalie to score on and that's the bottom line.

If anyone thinks Brian Elliot is harder to score on than Pavelic they are crazy. If Pavs played for Ken Hitchcock he'd be a Vezina candidate like Steve Mason was. Does anyone think it's a coincidence Hitch always has good goalies? When his players are buying in to his system his goalies post unreal stats, because goalie stats are team stats.

It would really set this team back if we lost Pavelic, hopefully some common ground is found for everyone's sake.
I agree with a lot of what you said. The Jets gave up far too many quality scoring chances which in turn deflated Pavelec's stats. However, in giving him the $3.25M next year I was already factoring that in. His numbers are actually that of a back-up which I'm willing to look past for the reasons stated.

I actually like Pavelec a lot but I just happen to be of the opinion that you absolutely have to be conservative with the goalie contracts. So many times, guys will get the equivalent of the yips and never recover.

The other thing working against Pavs is that, despite how good he is athletically and in traffic, he's one of the worst breakaway and shootout goalies in the league. That concerns me somewhat as well.

I stand by my "you pick the term" contract.

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06-19-2012, 01:01 AM
  #110
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I think his agent is waiting on Schneider and Rask to sign their RFA deals. Those could be used as current comparables. So I don't see the point in even bringing the KHL into this situation. It says to me "look I love money and will do anything to get it". It's certainly lacking integrity IMO. Both Gillis and Chiarelli are shrewd negotiators, but fair in their negotiations and seem to get hometown discounts (they sell the team concept). I hope Chevy doesn't cave to unreasonable demands.

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06-19-2012, 01:34 AM
  #111
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Duke49 View Post
It's $4 million. That's like 5% of our total cap space. That's not even close to an arm and a leg. And I don't see the problem with giving him a long term deal either. He has shown improvement every year for over 4 years and is still young for a goalie. Even if you overpay a little bit now, you'll likely be underpaying in 2-3 years if not sooner. You'll likely get much better value out of signing him longer term now then in 2-3 years.

And some of you act like getting a young talented goalie with potential to be a top 10 goalie for years is so easy. It's not. Why give up assets to get one when you already have one.
You know how you end up being the 30th place team in the NHL and have zero cap space? You give unproven players/ or overpay players with long bloated contracts. Ask Edmonton how things have been since they did that in 2006.

Khabibulin, Souray, Horcoff just to name a few.

Ondrej Pavelec has not proven himself to be a 4MM goalie. We hold all of the cards in this case. He has no leverage. He had an atrocious statistical year last year, and has to improve his conditioning and discipline to improve.

Pay him what he is worth. If he leaves for the KHL then he leaves. I don't think he is going to give up his NHL dream over money he doesn't deserve.

At the end of the day, I bet this is all positioning by his agent and he has nothing to do with it.

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06-19-2012, 02:57 AM
  #112
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Originally Posted by Jet View Post
You know how you end up being the 30th place team in the NHL and have zero cap space? You give unproven players/ or overpay players with long bloated contracts. Ask Edmonton how things have been since they did that in 2006.

Khabibulin, Souray, Horcoff just to name a few.

Ondrej Pavelec has not proven himself to be a 4MM goalie. We hold all of the cards in this case. He has no leverage. He had an atrocious statistical year last year, and has to improve his conditioning and discipline to improve.

Pay him what he is worth. If he leaves for the KHL then he leaves. I don't think he is going to give up his NHL dream over money he doesn't deserve.

At the end of the day, I bet this is all positioning by his agent and he has nothing to do with it.
It's $4mill, not $7. Pavelec is one of the best young goalies in the league around his age. Only a few youngsters are clearly above him developmentally. I don't know why it's so hard to people to understand that young players sometimes get paid for potential. Taveras and Myers both got contracts that are paid for potential but will likely be good deals down the road. And with the cap continuing to likely go up, I don't see why people have such an issue with this. Pavs has made great strides every year for at least 3-4 years and has only 2 seasons under his belt as a full time starter.

He god dam 24. He was good enough to be a god dam starter at twenty-****ing-three. I have witnessed him make strides in his game for years. Just because you haven't seen a thing of him improving before the Jets came to town doesn't mean he has not or can't. How many other 24 year old goalies played as many games as he did this year?

I fail to see the issue here.

And yes I agree with your last part. That is most likely a strong possibility. He might have a bit to do with it, but not much.

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06-19-2012, 03:09 AM
  #113
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Originally Posted by Le Golie View Post
Every single stat a goalie has is really a team stat. GAA is totally a team stat. Save percentage is a direct reflection of the quality of opportunities a team allows.

Stats aren't completely irrelevant but if that's what you are using to evaluate goalies, you aren't going to get anything useful out of it. Lots of backups have better stats than their starters. All things being equal (which is possible with numbers but impossible in the dynamic environment of a hockey game) Pavelic is a very difficult goalie to score on and that's the bottom line.

If anyone thinks Brian Elliot is harder to score on than Pavelic they are crazy. If Pavs played for Ken Hitchcock he'd be a Vezina candidate like Steve Mason was. Does anyone think it's a coincidence Hitch always has good goalies? When his players are buying in to his system his goalies post unreal stats, because goalie stats are team stats.

It would really set this team back if we lost Pavelic, hopefully some common ground is found for everyone's sake.
I'd dissagree with some of what you say:
http://mobile.arcticicehockey.com/20...wn-by-his-team

GAA is more often than not a team stat but SV% tends to be a more goalie controlled stat. Obviously they both contribute as a variable in both stats but SV% tends to be more influenced by the goalie. These can fluctuate to a degree as mentioned but so can player's points... You still in long term gain in understanding of regression when you include factors like shots against/gm, GA/gm, etc.
If you read the article in the link and the comments bellow (which most of the comments are done by authors) you will see how you can seperate the team influence in these stats to gain a better understanding.
You are 100% right how systems, coaching and defense can influence stats, even vastly, but with Pavs you have to realise that his variables were more like this:
He played more games but faced less shots/gm and less shots/min.
You can say all you want about the free pizzas but the 6 biggest TOI Dmen this and last year were the same and Noel's system is more defensive than last years.
He regressed in sv% from last year and as the year progressed.
He had MANY 4+ GA games (see article re: this).
He has worse stats than a lot of goalies who played in a worse defensive system and who placed lower than us.
The biggest differences between our home and away games were Pavs stats, while all the other team stats were more consistent.
Although you're right, it does happen; it's not more common for starters to have worse stats... It's the other way around but it's definately still occurs quite often, usually though more due to small sample sizing of backups and sheltered games.

Yes systems/coaches/etc can influence these greatly but you can determine which variable is the largest contributer by looking when other team variables are consistent. It's really an extension of the basic scientific method. I'm not a Pavs hater; I'm a supporter of locking him. I think he's got raw talent and skills. His major problems remain the same as in juniors, conditioning and positioning, as viewed by proffesional scouts. With these we have to take in mind that he's had less goalie specific coaching than most goalies at his age due to lack of any throughout most of his years in Czech (I read a neat article on this long ago but can't remember where from). The thing I like is those problems are fixable and I'm sure TNSE has already started working on it. Í know we all like to talk about the Jones gaffs/pizzas and such but we honestly weren't nearly the worse. Infact if you improve his sv% to a league standard that's more align our SA, GA, GF, we pretty much made the playoffs (which was calculated by AIH blog in a post about 2ish months ago).

You have to realize (not you personally but as in general people) that Pavs value is more in potential then current. I don't knock his potential at all; he's young and brilliant in my mind. His stats are comparable to Quick's early years (as shown by someone else in this thread) but they are also comparable to Mason's (as shown in comments in the article I posted. He really could go either way. He could, and any one who completely disagrees in any chance of this is blinded by hometeam bias. You have to pay for current and progression and not potential.

My opinion is sign Pavs giving him more leverage with term but with lowish costs (3-3.5), and then severly upgrade the backup position to light an additional fire under Pavs while still mentoring. There are quite a few capable of this role available in FA.

In the end I love Pavs and hope he'll become a top 10, but currently he's not there and so shouldn't be paid as such.


Last edited by garret9: 06-19-2012 at 03:26 AM.
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06-19-2012, 03:21 AM
  #114
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For what it's worth, though I'd prefer they could negotiate something in the middle, I wouldn't be TOO fussed if we did just go all the way and give him the reported $4 million and some healthy term to get the deal done.

Yes, it would be a gamble, and I totally agree it's a good chunk more than he's worth right now. Still, sometimes you have to take those risks, and Pavs is one of the few players on this team I'd personally be willing to roll the dice on. Something special about him.

Besides, if it doesn't work out in a couple of seasons I'm sure he'll be an upgrade over whoever's in net for the Maple Leafs, so we'll always have a trade partner.

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06-19-2012, 08:25 AM
  #115
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I dont see the problem with giving him 4 Mil

If we can get him too give up some of his UFA years at 4 mil that would be a steal if he gets too the goalie that we all think he can be.

He isnt even in his prime yet so I have no problems with a 4 or even 5 yr deal

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06-19-2012, 08:33 AM
  #116
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In regards to using the KHL as leverage, I'm not a fan of that at all. There is a reason in every interview with Europeans in the draft (or most, for all we know, given what TSN is showing) that management teams and scouts alike ask these kids if they have interest in playing in the KHL.

I just don't like it as a bargaining tool or used as some sort of leverage. I would venture a guess that neither does Chevy given his statements just last week in the Glass negotiations where he stated "it's not about leverage, it's about what is fair".

If my agent were using the KHL as leverage, I'd put a pretty quick stop to it. Whether people view it as a good tool to use or not, NHL teams and management groups despise the KHL. This sort of leverage tool could really tarnish a relationship.

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06-19-2012, 08:44 AM
  #117
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Pavelec is pending RFA with a big $ offer from KHL. It will take $4mil\multi years to keep him in NHL. Pay or trade him...Jets only options.


Sounds like an ugly ultimatum. Didn't expect this from Pavelec to be quite honest, it's disappointing to see him take this position.

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06-19-2012, 08:47 AM
  #118
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Pavelec is pending RFA with a big $ offer from KHL. It will take $4mil\multi years to keep him in NHL. Pay or trade him...Jets only options.


Sounds like an ugly ultimatum. Didn't expect this from Pavelec to be quite honest, it's disappointing to see him take this position.
What stance? Are we hanging him on the word of Darren freaking Dreger, who's consistently been a d-bag about WPG...

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06-19-2012, 08:48 AM
  #119
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Pavelec is pending RFA with a big $ offer from KHL. It will take $4mil\multi years to keep him in NHL. Pay or trade him...Jets only options.


Sounds like an ugly ultimatum. Didn't expect this from Pavelec to be quite honest, it's disappointing to see him take this position.
Completely agree, very disappointing. As I said before, I am ok with 4 million per season, but he surely has a lot more to prove yet before you lock him up to a solid salary for a (what sounds to be) fairly long-term.


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06-19-2012, 08:49 AM
  #120
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What stance? Are we hanging him on the word of Darren freaking Dreger, who's consistently been a d-bag about WPG...
True, but like it or not he is fairly credible (in my opinion, anyway) when it comes to rumors and such. I'm not a big fan of Dreger, but i'll give him his credibility where it's due.

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06-19-2012, 08:50 AM
  #121
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Le Golie View Post
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@DarrenDreger

Pavelec is pending RFA with a big $ offer from KHL. It will take $4mil\multi years to keep him in NHL. Pay or trade him...Jets only options.


Sounds like an ugly ultimatum. Didn't expect this from Pavelec to be quite honest, it's disappointing to see him take this position.
I did. There was noise from his agent early on in Atlanta about this too. Lots of talk from his camp about Pavs needing more starts than Lehtonen or needing to be traded. His agent just plays it tough. Doesn't indicate Pavelec's interest or disinterest in playing for the team.

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06-19-2012, 09:33 AM
  #122
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I did. There was noise from his agent early on in Atlanta about this too. Lots of talk from his camp about Pavs needing more starts than Lehtonen or needing to be traded. His agent just plays it tough. Doesn't indicate Pavelec's interest or disinterest in playing for the team.
I remember when that was going on, and I didn't like it at all then, either. I hate when players do this stuff.

People can say the "Russian Factor" is overplayed, or that the "bolting to the KHL" is overplayed, but in truth this is exactly why it is put into question. No GM in the league wants to deal with a player threatening to go to the KHL just so he can get what he wants. I understand it, but I'll never agree with it.

If you're in the NHL and you're good enough, you will get paid quite fairly at the end of the day, but there is no need to go to the lengths of threatening to leave the NHL. If you feel the need to threaten an organization that you'll pack up and go to the KHL, and if this drags into September/October, if I were Chevy, I'd buy your plane ticket.


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06-19-2012, 09:52 AM
  #123
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It's $4mill, not $7. Pavelec is one of the best young goalies in the league around his age. Only a few youngsters are clearly above him developmentally. I don't know why it's so hard to people to understand that young players sometimes get paid for potential. Taveras and Myers both got contracts that are paid for potential but will likely be good deals down the road. And with the cap continuing to likely go up, I don't see why people have such an issue with this. Pavs has made great strides every year for at least 3-4 years and has only 2 seasons under his belt as a full time starter.

He god dam 24. He was good enough to be a god dam starter at twenty-****ing-three. I have witnessed him make strides in his game for years. Just because you haven't seen a thing of him improving before the Jets came to town doesn't mean he has not or can't. How many other 24 year old goalies played as many games as he did this year?

I fail to see the issue here.

And yes I agree with your last part. That is most likely a strong possibility. He might have a bit to do with it, but not much.
The bigger question here is the fairness of the entire thing. How is it fair to the other young players on the team when one player is getting paid way above their market value? It is not likely that this will set a precedence for future RFA and UFAs who would use this deal as a baseline? Pavelec is good but not 4 million good (for some reference in the Kane thread a couple of months ago people were saying 4-4.5 million for Kane is a fair deal. That's for Kane a player who has proven himself at the NHL level.) Pavelec simply hasn't proven himself to be worth that much. FA goaltending can get you .910 sv%,

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06-19-2012, 10:05 AM
  #124
videofarmer
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Originally Posted by Guerzy View Post
I remember when that was going on, and I didn't like it at all then, either. I hate when players do this stuff.

People can say the "Russian Factor" is overplayed, or that the "bolting to the KHL" is overplayed, but in truth this is exactly why it is put into question.
Yeah, I prefer when players do it the way Slates did, but everyone and every situation is different.
Just ignore any talk about Pavs wanting to play somewhere else for more money rather than Winnipeg. This same thing would be happening if he was playing on any other team.

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06-19-2012, 10:06 AM
  #125
MrWigglez
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Guerzy View Post
I remember when that was going on, and I didn't like it at all then, either. I hate when players do this stuff.

People can say the "Russian Factor" is overplayed, or that the "bolting to the KHL" is overplayed, but in truth this is exactly why it is put into question. No GM in the league wants to deal with a player threatening to go to the KHL just so he can get what he wants. I understand it, but I'll never agree with it.

If you're in the NHL and you're good enough, you will get paid quite fairly at the end of the day, but there is no need to go to the lengths of threatening to leave the NHL. If you feel the need to threaten an organization that you'll pack up and go to the KHL, and if this drags into September/October, if I were Chevy, I'd buy your plane ticket.
If this happened when he was first in Atlanta, and it's happening again now.. Lets say we give him 4-5 million for 2-3 years right now then what happens when that contract is out? If he does prove to be a solid #1 then what's stopping him from demanding 7 or 8 million on his next contract on a decade long contract?

It just doesn't seem like Pavs will be here for the long term at this rate... Maybe it's time we start looking for another starter now.

This is of course assuming all the stories/rumours are true.

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