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Old
06-19-2012, 04:25 AM
  #26
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ducks DVM View Post
I would not do the Holland + 6. Holland plus a mid-round 1st I would do. And don't look at the players picked only at 6, look from 6-9. At any one position there's going to be some skewing of the results because of what was on teams particular needs. I think we can take Staal off that list based on his prior performances (70 is his bad year), Richards also had the Selke nomination bringing the price up, but the other guys are either low end 1C's or high end 2C's. None of them are centers who carry your first line IMO. The Kings can also spend to the cap. The Ducks can't. Having a high value ELC player will be more important. And I don't think that Krejci makes the Ducks a cup contender like Richards and Carter did for LA. Honestly, I don't think Krejci is available regardless.

50% is way too high, but OEL, Suter, Koivu, Phaneuf, Hamilton, Couture, Setoguchi, Skinner, Okposo were all picked between 6-9. You trade a home run swing for a good player. I think "thrilled" is too strong a term. There are several defensemen who project to top pairing and several wings that project to top pairing as well as several centers who project to the same level as Krejci. Several will bust, several won't. Watching Boston have the Ducks top pairing defenseman for the next 15-20 years while the Ducks have a good #2 for a couple years doesn't "thrill me". Granted he could bust and run off to the KHL or something, but he might not. It's not like the mid-1st guys where you are thrilled just to get a decent roster player.

EDIT - The fact that Columbus has had the 6th pick 3 of the last 7 years has to be taken into account when evaluating the bustiness of the 6th pick. Their scouting and GM are, well, shall we say they're not Detroit?

I don't agree with the way you are comparing what we could get. The odds of us picking a player at 6 that will turn out better then Krejci are slim IMO. I would say that past history only proves that more. You are saying 6-9, but if that's the case IMO, you have to factor the odds that you pick the best player that goes 6-9, and then see if he turns out better then Krejci. IMO, those odds are slim. Plus, what's wrong with the current prospect pool? Maybe one of those guys becomes better then Krejci? IMO the prospect pool is deep enough to where you make a move to get a player who is proven, rather then draft another prospect and hope he turns out to be close to the player Krejci is. Just because Krejci isn't clearly a number one, that doesn't sway how important he'd be to the team. My point is that when your prospect pool is deep, why not take advantage and move some pieces for an established player? I'm absolutely baffled that someone wouldn't want to move a 1st and Holland for Krejci. I respect your opinion though, but I take the proven great 2nd line center any day, especially when you consider how weak we are at the position.

70 is a bad year for Staal? He's been in the league 6 years and hit 50 points once, so I don't know why you're giving him that much credit. Surely you don't think I'm talking about Erik? Clearly he's a 1st line center. I was comparing guys that have been thrown around on these boards that we'd like to have.

I realize that we aren't a cap team. IMO that's exactly why you target someone like Krejci for your 2nd line and not someone like Malkin. Budget teams don't have the luxury of having (paying actually) two 1st line centers.

Frankly I think the wait and see what this player can become approach has killed our advantage over the years of having so many great players on cheap contracts. I'm waiting for Murray to live up to what he said and use these great assets. Our rivals did, and it worked out pretty well for them.

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06-19-2012, 04:29 AM
  #27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Elvstrand View Post
#6 overall picks between 1995-2008

2008: Nikita Filatov
2007: Sam Gagner
2006: Derick Brassard
2005: Gilbert Brule
2004: Al Montoya
2003: Milan Michalek
2002: Scottie Upshall
2001: Mikko Koivu
2000: Scott Hartnell
1999: Brian Finley
1998: Rico Fata
1997: Daniel Tkaczuk
1996: Boyd Devereaux
1995: Steve Kelly

That's a big sample size. Fact: You're pretty darn lucky if you're ending up with a Mikko Koivu at #6, or even Milan Michalek or Scott Hartnell. Heck, if you end up with a Gagner or a Brassard at #6 you've done pretty well for yourself. You'll have to go back to the early 90's to find good players being selected at that position every year, and those were deep drafts (so many great players born in the early 70's).

I'd easily trade Holland and that pick for Krejci. Anyway you trade a pick, there's always a chance a great player ends up getting selected with that pick, but even if you had kept the pick, chances are 50/50 that you would have selected someone else. The chances for the #6 overall becoming a top six forward/top four defenseman, are probably around 30%. I have a difficult time believen a contender would trade one of the leagues best 2nd line centers for uncertainty.
This entire conversation is due to a debate we had weeks ago about what we'd give up IF Krejci was available. I said back then that the only way they moved him was if they wanted to hard for a FA to address a different position, and wanted to shed salary due to being deep at center. For what it's worth, a couple of Bruin fans said they'd be ok with that. I know odds are slim to none. I was just answering the guys question.

Agree with everything you said though. I am just amazed that people wouldn't be all over a 6th + Holland deal for Krejci. I was also arguing that I believe if we made that deal (Hollad+1st or 2 1sts), our 1st wouldn't at least be until 15th or so. Personally I don't see a giant difference in the value of Holland now and next years 1st (if that was the trade that went down).

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06-19-2012, 06:13 AM
  #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Elvstrand View Post
#6 overall picks between 1995-2008

2008: Nikita Filatov
2007: Sam Gagner
2006: Derick Brassard
2005: Gilbert Brule
2004: Al Montoya
2003: Milan Michalek
2002: Scottie Upshall
2001: Mikko Koivu
2000: Scott Hartnell
1999: Brian Finley
1998: Rico Fata
1997: Daniel Tkaczuk
1996: Boyd Devereaux
1995: Steve Kelly

That's a big sample size. Fact: You're pretty darn lucky if you're ending up with a Mikko Koivu at #6, or even Milan Michalek or Scott Hartnell. Heck, if you end up with a Gagner or a Brassard at #6 you've done pretty well for yourself. You'll have to go back to the early 90's to find good players being selected at that position every year, and those were deep drafts (so many great players born in the early 70's).

I'd easily trade Holland and that pick for Krejci. Anyway you trade a pick, there's always a chance a great player ends up getting selected with that pick, but even if you had kept the pick, chances are 50/50 that you would have selected someone else. The chances for the #6 overall becoming a top six forward/top four defenseman, are probably around 30%. I have a difficult time believen a contender would trade one of the leagues best 2nd line centers for uncertainty.

Edit: 30% is probably a little off... Maybe 40%... Anyways, the chances of getting a player SIGNIFICANTLY better than Krejci at 6th is somewhere around 10-15%
you cant compare to soley no.6 picks, you got to compare to the pool of players available, and also which teams take them, it's not a coincidence alot of busts are selected by certain teams

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06-19-2012, 06:47 AM
  #29
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Comparing picks makes no sense, as it is up to the individual team as to who they like of the players available.

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06-19-2012, 08:45 AM
  #30
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There was a post on the Edmonton board with some good research (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh...php?p=50726199). It was in reference to how much they should value that #6 pick relative to Gagner. I like the pool of players he chose (5-11 overall from 1999-2009). I completely disagree with their conclusions relative to "better than Gagner/about equal to Gagner," but the list is very relevant to this discussion so I'll steal it.

1999 - Connolly, Finley, Beech, Pyatt, Lundmark, Mezei, Saprykin
2000 - Torres, Hartnell, Lars Johnson, Alexeev, Krahn, Yakubov, Vorobiev
2001 - Chistov, M Koivu, Komisarek, Leclaire, T Ruutu, Blackburn, Sjostrom
2002 - R Whitney, Upshall, Lupul, PM Bouchard, Taticek, Nystrom, Ballard
2003 - Vanek, Michalek, Suter, Coburn, Phaneuf, A Kostitsyn, J Carter
2004 - Wheeler, Montoya, Olesz, Picard, Smid, Valabik, Tukonen
2005 - Price, Brule, Skille, Setoguchi, Lee, Bourdon, Kopitar
2006 - Kessel, Brassard, Okposo, Mueller, Sheppard, Frolik, Bernier
2007 - Alzner, Gagner, Voracek, Hamill, Couture, Ellerby, Sutter
2008 - L Schenn, Filatov, Wilson, Boedker, Bailey, Hodgson, Beach
2009 - B Schenn, Ekman-Larsson, Kadri, Glennie, Cowen, Paajarvi, Ellis


I think this give a more accurate picture of how to value #6. I'm too lazy to count my comparison, but for you guys there's 77 players. So I would recommend people go through and count how many they feel are better than Krejci and how many are about equal to Krejci to get a sense of getting a better or equal prospect. I believe I got about 30% better than Gagner and 25% equivalent to Gagner. Those numbers would be significantly lower relative to Krejci.


I am with duckstudd, I would be OK with 2 x first for Krejci. I would also give #6 + Holland, which I view as less than 2 x first. Although I don't believe Boston would like either just because of needs. There's a few reasons. 1) I think we value Krejci more than others here (Krejci >> J Staal IMO). 2) I think I give this #6 less value than the average #6. It seems like the Ducks view this the same way with the way Murray has been talking about how the picks are pretty equivalent all the way down to about 15.

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06-19-2012, 09:19 AM
  #31
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I would also be ready to trade this year's 1st and Holland to Boston for Krejci. Having Getzlaf, Krejci and Bonino would solve center problems for years. That's definitely worth Holland who we hope to be Krejci one day and this year's 6th pick.

Trading both 1st picks would ok too. Krejci makes this team better and the 1st pick for 2013 could end up being less valuable pick like 20th or something like that which wouldn't hurt that much to lose. And they keep Holland which is great.

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06-19-2012, 09:29 AM
  #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by snarktacular View Post
There was a post on the Edmonton board with some good research (http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh...php?p=50726199). It was in reference to how much they should value that #6 pick relative to Gagner. I like the pool of players he chose (5-11 overall from 1999-2009). I completely disagree with their conclusions relative to "better than Gagner/about equal to Gagner," but the list is very relevant to this discussion so I'll steal it.

1999 - Connolly, Finley, Beech, Pyatt, Lundmark, Mezei, Saprykin
2000 - Torres, Hartnell, Lars Johnson, Alexeev, Krahn, Yakubov, Vorobiev
2001 - Chistov, M Koivu, Komisarek, Leclaire, T Ruutu, Blackburn, Sjostrom
2002 - R Whitney, Upshall, Lupul, PM Bouchard, Taticek, Nystrom, Ballard
2003 - Vanek, Michalek, Suter, Coburn, Phaneuf, A Kostitsyn, J Carter
2004 - Wheeler, Montoya, Olesz, Picard, Smid, Valabik, Tukonen
2005 - Price, Brule, Skille, Setoguchi, Lee, Bourdon, Kopitar
2006 - Kessel, Brassard, Okposo, Mueller, Sheppard, Frolik, Bernier
2007 - Alzner, Gagner, Voracek, Hamill, Couture, Ellerby, Sutter
2008 - L Schenn, Filatov, Wilson, Boedker, Bailey, Hodgson, Beach
2009 - B Schenn, Ekman-Larsson, Kadri, Glennie, Cowen, Paajarvi, Ellis


I think this give a more accurate picture of how to value #6. I'm too lazy to count my comparison, but for you guys there's 77 players. So I would recommend people go through and count how many they feel are better than Krejci and how many are about equal to Krejci to get a sense of getting a better or equal prospect. I believe I got about 30% better than Gagner and 25% equivalent to Gagner. Those numbers would be significantly lower relative to Krejci.


I am with duckstudd, I would be OK with 2 x first for Krejci. I would also give #6 + Holland, which I view as less than 2 x first. Although I don't believe Boston would like either just because of needs. There's a few reasons. 1) I think we value Krejci more than others here (Krejci >> J Staal IMO). 2) I think I give this #6 less value than the average #6. It seems like the Ducks view this the same way with the way Murray has been talking about how the picks are pretty equivalent all the way down to about 15.
By my quick count, there's 11. That's about 14%. I'd take Krecji every time.

edit - and about half of those are from the outlying 2003 draft. It's no contest.

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06-19-2012, 11:34 AM
  #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OccupySheen View Post
you cant compare to soley no.6 picks, you got to compare to the pool of players available, and also which teams take them, it's not a coincidence alot of busts are selected by certain teams
You could make a list of players selected at #5, #7, #8 or #9... Still, relatively few players drafted in those positions end up as good as Krejci. Doesn't matter who is available, in each year there's only a handful of players who turn out significantly better than a 60 point center (again, Krejci). You MIGHT (if you're very lucky) end up with a PPG forward at that position, but the chances of that pick becoming anywhere between a 0.5 PPG forward to an AHL career player are much bigger. Therefor, Krejci is defenitely worth a #6 overall pick seen to pure trade value.


Last edited by Elvs: 06-19-2012 at 11:58 AM.
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06-19-2012, 01:16 PM
  #34
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I'm confused as too why so many of you actually want Krejci...

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06-19-2012, 01:53 PM
  #35
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Originally Posted by Duckstudd269 View Post
I don't agree with the way you are comparing what we could get. The odds of us picking a player at 6 that will turn out better then Krejci are slim IMO. I would say that past history only proves that more. You are saying 6-9, but if that's the case IMO, you have to factor the odds that you pick the best player that goes 6-9, and then see if he turns out better then Krejci. IMO, those odds are slim. Plus, what's wrong with the current prospect pool? Maybe one of those guys becomes better then Krejci? IMO the prospect pool is deep enough to where you make a move to get a player who is proven, rather then draft another prospect and hope he turns out to be close to the player Krejci is. Just because Krejci isn't clearly a number one, that doesn't sway how important he'd be to the team. My point is that when your prospect pool is deep, why not take advantage and move some pieces for an established player? I'm absolutely baffled that someone wouldn't want to move a 1st and Holland for Krejci. I respect your opinion though, but I take the proven great 2nd line center any day, especially when you consider how weak we are at the position.

70 is a bad year for Staal? He's been in the league 6 years and hit 50 points once, so I don't know why you're giving him that much credit. Surely you don't think I'm talking about Erik? Clearly he's a 1st line center. I was comparing guys that have been thrown around on these boards that we'd like to have.

I realize that we aren't a cap team. IMO that's exactly why you target someone like Krejci for your 2nd line and not someone like Malkin. Budget teams don't have the luxury of having (paying actually) two 1st line centers.

Frankly I think the wait and see what this player can become approach has killed our advantage over the years of having so many great players on cheap contracts. I'm waiting for Murray to live up to what he said and use these great assets. Our rivals did, and it worked out pretty well for them.
Yeah, I actually did think you meant Erik, I don't think Jordan belongs in this discussion, grossly overrated and asking to be as grossly overpaid as his brother. Oops

I had been saying last year was the year to go all in, I think the uncertainty around Hiller and the shoulder injuries to Lydman and Visnovsky is what ruined that. My concern over the prospect pool is there's no #1D going forward. It's debatable if Fowler will ever be a true #1 or just a #2. The #6 has a chance of getting another top pairing D (that they probably won't ever pay for on the free market). I think people are getting hung up on the already admitted too high 50% and missing the actual point of my argument about not being "thrilled" at getting a player who would be a top end 2C/low end 1C. Thrilled to me indicates you were surprised and think you overachieved. I see a Krejci type as merely making a successful pick at 6. I see an OEL/Suter/Kopitar as being "thrilled".

Pure, safe asset management playing odds you make the trade (although has everyone here written off Holland as having 60 point upside?) but as far as long term star potential it's a loss IMO. And again, I don't think Krejci makes us a cup contender. I won't argue the team will be quite a bit better though.

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06-19-2012, 02:03 PM
  #36
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Originally Posted by deangamblin View Post
I'm confused as too why so many of you actually want Krejci...
Why's that? He's a good playmaking 2nd line center, signed, not overly expensive, still rather young, and even has impressed on the playoffs before. What's not to want about that?

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06-19-2012, 03:22 PM
  #37
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I've never been high on Holland. I personally would be thrilled if we landed someone like Krejci for that package. Players like that are hard to land. Look what's been given up in the past to obtain one. So yeah, personally I'd be thrilled to land someone like Krejci.

I understand what you're saying about the defense prospects. Schultz can be blamed for that. Personally I don't see any great defensive prospects aside from Murray in the draft. And I think he's long gone by 3. There's other good defensive prospects, but IMO they have a lesser chance of being a number one defenseman then both Sbisa and fowler.

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06-19-2012, 03:27 PM
  #38
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Why's that? He's a good playmaking 2nd line center, signed, not overly expensive, still rather young, and even has impressed on the playoffs before. What's not to want about that?
Exactly. He's not as known as some of the others, but I put him in a class with Weiss, j.Staal, Plekanac, and Pavelski easily. He seems like a great fit for Ryan as well.

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06-19-2012, 03:28 PM
  #39
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Originally Posted by deangamblin View Post
I'm confused as too why so many of you actually want Krejci...
We're desperate for centers

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06-23-2012, 12:19 AM
  #40
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Ryan can fetch the team a lot better than Krecji, I'm gonna assume you guys have watched him play. Theres a reason Bruins fans are so eager to want to give up Krecji.

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06-23-2012, 12:22 AM
  #41
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Originally Posted by deangamblin View Post
Ryan can fetch the team a lot better than Krecji, I'm gonna assume you guys have watched him play. Theres a reason Bruins fans are so eager to want to give up Krecji.
I have watched plenty of Bruins games and I would love to get something done around Krejci if Ryan was to be traded. He would be great centering the second line.

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