Actually, I have a first class honours undergraduate degree in mathematics and physics, I'll be getting a PhD in a few weeks, and I'll be making six figures next year in a technical job at age 28. I've tutored math and statistics to dozens of people, I've lectured on probability and statistics in a university, and I've turned down job offers from Wall Street. I get the relevant math just fine, thank you.
I don't blame you for not getting basic statistics -- most people don't. The point is, you can't assume the dice will roll you way every time even if you have a god shot on each individual roll. If you roll the dice many times, you will win some, and you will lose some.
If you roll two dice 36 times, you expect to get snake eyes once, not 36 times.
In that case, first let me thank you for taking the time out if your busy schedule to enlighten us. What, with the PhD studies, the tutoring, the lecturing, and the turning down of high profile job offers I'm sure that leaves you with little spare time.
Perhaps the question lies in the analysis rather than the statistics themselves. Let me try to re-frame things, in an acceptable fashion.
Re: the part which starts with shedding Gomez, if each of those favorable scenarios has a 50% chance of NOT happening, then the odds they'll all NOT happen is less than 1%. Hey, I'm good with that, looks like SOMETHING will get better, statistically speaking.
Re: the part which starts with Cole, if each if those unfavorable scenarios have a 70% chance of NOT happening, then surely, statistically, most will not happen. I like that too!!!
Things are looking up in Hab Land!! Statistically, at least?
Actually, I have a first class honours undergraduate degree in mathematics and physics, I'll be getting a PhD in a few weeks, and I'll be making six figures next year in a technical job at age 28. I've tutored math and statistics to dozens of people, I've lectured on probability and statistics in a university, and I've turned down job offers from Wall Street. I get the relevant math just fine, thank you.
I don't blame you for not getting basic statistics -- most people don't. The point is, you can't assume the dice will roll you way every time even if you have a god shot on each individual roll. If you roll the dice many times, you will win some, and you will lose some.
If you roll two dice 36 times, you expect to get snake eyes once, not 36 times.
I don't think you can put a percentage on the likelihood of someone getting injured, or improving ..
Ah sweet bro, is this the part where we brag about how much money we make, just so we can feel good about ourselves? Are you that kid from the "mon père yé riche" video??
Perhaps the question lies in the analysis rather than the statistics themselves. Let me try to re-frame things, in an acceptable fashion.
Re: the part which starts with shedding Gomez, if each of those favorable scenarios has a 50% chance of NOT happening, then the odds they'll all NOT happen is less than 1%. Hey, I'm good with that, looks like SOMETHING will get better, statistically speaking.
Yes, that's totally true. We won't have each of those bad things happen again. However, we don't just need some improvement to go from 15th place to 6th place -- we need a lot of improvements.
Meanwhile, you expect that some of the things that went right this year won't go as well next year. These were some of the positives to the season:
- Consistency from Price.
- Elite penalty kill
- Career season from Cole.
- Strong improvements from Pacioretty, Desharnais, Emelin, Eller
- No injuries to Subban, Plekanec, Gorges
That's my list, maybe you'd make a different list. Either way, I listed 10 different events that we benefited from last year. How many of those will repeat this year? Probably not all 10.
In the middle of last summer, I was criticized by this forum for not being optimistic about our defense. This summer, I'm criticized for not being optimistic about our playoff hopes. That's fine.
I'm pretty sure I'm right. I'm confident in predicting an approximate 12th place finish. Bottom line is this team finished 15th with some things going well and other things going badly. There's just too much that needs to change for me to see a vast improvement as likely. Of course, it IS possible, I just don't think it's likely.
Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnnyB11
Things are looking up in Hab Land!! Statistically, at least?
Actually, I have a first class honours undergraduate degree in mathematics and physics, I'll be getting a PhD in a few weeks, and I'll be making six figures next year in a technical job at age 28. I've tutored math and statistics to dozens of people, I've lectured on probability and statistics in a university, and I've turned down job offers from Wall Street. I get the relevant math just fine, thank you.
.
Are you from Boston, and did you solve impossible math problems, while working as a janitor, at the local college?
