I agree that having Luongo would make a huge difference and I am hoping Burke manages to get him for a decent price. I am willing to give up Big Joe, a future first and one of our Dmen. That said, I think your numbers are wrong.
Feel free to correct me but Luongo's save % over the last 4 years is not 92.6% it's actually 91.9%. (1-(544/6787)) = 0.91984
Unless I am missing something here (which I might be) the goal differential calculations you made could be off by 15 goals or so which would knock us down a peg.
That said, with Luongo I feel we'll be going to back the playoffs and he'll steal us a few games the way Belfour and CUJO used to.
Last edited by TheMadHatTrick: 06-24-2012 at 06:31 PM.
[QUOTE=TheMadHatTrick;51448283]Roberto Luongo's save percentage with an equally enept Florida team over his last 5 years there was 92.6%, or, exactly the same number as it has been with a very good Canucks team over the last 4 years.
The team in front of you should only really affect the amount and quality of shots a goalie faces, and therefore theoretically should not affect a goalie's efficiency relative to their actual ability, and the numbers bear that out.
Luongo gave up way more goals with Florida
Than he did with Vancouver
But his save percentage remains remarkably the same, because those numbers are the closest statistically you can come to judging a goalie's actual ability over a large sample size.
I didn't downplay anything. I prefaced the entire post with the neccesary caveats. It is also a purely statistical analysis, meaning that it can only measure things that can be statistically quantified.
Notice that all of those goalies you have chosen are predominantly backup goalies and have not produced close to a large enough sample size against top competition over an extended period of time from which a reasonable conclusion can be drawn.[/QUOTE]
Slight problem, as good as Luongo is, the Leafs don't have:
A) Two elite players like the Sedins.
B) A Selke winning centre.
Getting Luongo is in no way a lock to make the playoffs. He surely increases our chances but there is no "lock" with this team.
Your logic is a bit flawed. The Canucks are a consistant Presidents trophy threat and cup contender. No one has said we will become that with Luongo, just a playoff team
Not every playoff team has A and B or either for that matter. Take a look at Florida's roster some time, or Pheonix. Yes there are no garuntees but I like our chances assuming no major injury problems.
Originally Posted by Max Quackenbush
There is zero chance Lou goes to Toronto if they sign Schultz. Burke is on the clock and by that I mean does he like his job. If he does, which player gives him the best chance to keep it?
Did Shultz sleep with Luongo's wife or something we don't know about that stops both from being on the same team ?
I struggle with the concept of him being over rated, the brain trusts that ran our Olympic program saw fit to make him our #1 in arguable to biggest, most important tourney in our life time, save for maybe 1972.
Thats fair. But Brodeur looked terrible and they werent going to hand the reins to Fleury. They had no other choice. Luongo looked awful in the gold medal game. Luongo biggest weakness to me is focus. HE constantly gives up weak , team deflating goals.