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HeroStats - JVR In-depth future scoring analysis

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Old
06-25-2012, 10:14 PM
  #26
91Kadri91
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I like your point projections. There's definitely some logic behind those projections, although you're assuming there will be no growth or reduction, which probably isn't realistic. Saying that, it's very hard to put a value on development, so there's not much more you could have done.

I also commend the work you've done, as that would take a heck of a long time, and I know I wouldn't have the patience to compile something like this in my spare time.

Just a suggestion for whenever you choose to do this again; use more advanced defensive statistics. The defensive statistics you chose are too simple and don't give a true impression of how good a player is defensively. Hits, for example, is a very subjective stat. That's not to say that JVR isn't more than an average defensive forward, but using those statistics don't really prove it one way or another. There's also more advanced offensive statistics, but they won't help you do much in determining future point production, which I believe was the purpose of your offensive breakdown.

Below is a link to an advanced hockey statistic site:

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/

I suggest looking at a players GA20 (which gives you a small sense of said players defensive contributions), TMGA20 (this will give you a sense of how much the said players quality of teammates/team played a part in his defensive contributions), OppGF% (it gives you an idea of the quality of opponents said player was facing) and HARD+ (gives an overall sense of the players defensive abilities). These statistics are shown in a number of situations such as 5 on 5 Close (Zone Adjusted), 5 on 5 Even Strength (with or without Zone Adjusted), 5 on 5 Tied (Zone Adjusted), 5 on 5 up 1/down 1 goal (Zone Adjusted), 5 on 5 up 2/down 2 goals (Zone Adjusted), Power-play (don't use defensive statistics for this as they're obviously not indicative of the players defensive abilities), and shorthanded (don't use offensive statistics for the same reasons you don't use defensive stats to prove a point when looking at power-play situations). I could go into Corsi, but I never found it difficult to figure out, so I feel that you likely could figure it out fairly easily (it also involves a lot of the same components presented above).

Also, remember that statistics are relative, so you can't simply look at one player and determine if they're a good defender/offensive player. You have to look at a number of players and make your evaluations based on a bunch of data. There are parameters that state what is above-and-below average for some statistics, but I still recommend that you look at a number of other players when making a final evaluation.

All in all though, I think you certainly did a good job at noting a few very interesting parts to JVR's game and how he may progress in terms of immediate point production. I commend you for your effort, as well.

Keep up the good work!

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06-25-2012, 10:17 PM
  #27
81snipe
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Good job man, nice detailed analysis. Hoping JVR stays healthy and becomes a good top 6 producer for us!

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06-25-2012, 10:34 PM
  #28
hockeyfreak7
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That's a very accurate analysis.


As a Flyers fan, I think the increased responsibility will be the single greatest factor in an increase in production next season. As with most big, power forwards, JVR is very much a player who needs to "get into his groove" in order to be effective. If he is not in his groove-- he is invisible. If he is in his groove-- he is a dominant player.

With JVR, when he creates one chance for himself, you can expect for him to create chance after chance after chance. Playing 15 minutes or less per night, he rarely had the opportunity to get into this groove, though, in Philly. What he should benefit most from is stability in Toronto. He will be guaranteed a top six spot, and should see consistency in his ice time night after night.


I was convinced JVR would enjoy a break out season last year with the departure of Richards and Carter, but the resurgence of Hartnell, the chemistry between Jagr/Giroux, and JVR's injuries all impacted JVR's production in one way or another. Many fans soured on him, but the talent was obviously still there. The situation in Philly was just not conducive to the breakout of JVR.


Ultimately, I dont think Toronto fans should worry about JVR being provided quality linemates. He's a player that makes things happen for himself when he is on his game. He doesnt need a great playmaker to set him up or a good shooter for him to clean up rebounds. His game is predicated on his confidence. He has the size and strength to drive to the net, but he has the talent and finesse to create opportunities for himself in other ways. It all comes down to his confidence on the ice. If he thinks he's the best player on the ice, he will be. He just needs to be in a situation where he he has that confidence at all times.

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06-25-2012, 10:50 PM
  #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sam Slick View Post
Sorry Ricky, JVR does not win board battles. Not a banger and no compete level is how he has been described by many top hockey people.

Just sayin'
It depends on how you define board battles. From what I've seen and others have said, he's a beast at maintaining possession and protecting the puck from defenders from behind the net and along the boards. He doesn't have to hammer players into the boards to win a puck/board battle.

EDIT: Also, the OP seems to have JVR's PP TOI/Game wrong for this past season. He played a whopping 2:47/game on the PP this past season. His increased production this coming season would likely come from an increase in ES TOI since his PP TOI can't get much higher than 2:47 per game (In comparison: Kessel played 3:20 PP TOI/Game).

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06-25-2012, 10:57 PM
  #30
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Damn, good work.

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06-25-2012, 11:03 PM
  #31
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Very good stuff thanks for the analysis

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Old
06-26-2012, 01:49 AM
  #32
Kessely Snipes
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Very nice anaylsis.

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06-26-2012, 04:21 AM
  #33
Newfie John
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sam Slick View Post
Sorry Ricky, JVR does not win board battles. Not a banger and no compete level is how he has been described by many top hockey people.

Just sayin'
That's not true.

He's certainly not a banger, but I wouldn't question his work ethic. He does a very good job of standing in front of the net, and taking a beating while doing so.

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06-26-2012, 11:59 AM
  #34
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Very very good work. I actually spent the 10-15 mins to read all of that.

I think the numbers are well in the ball park but if he gets off to a blazing start and Lupul is slumping, I don't think Carlyle will hesitate to put him with Kessel.

If he plays significant time with Kessel, I see him potting 30 because Kessel is a very underrated passer.

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06-26-2012, 12:00 PM
  #35
Pi
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sam Slick View Post
Sorry Ricky, JVR does not win board battles. Not a banger and no compete level is how he has been described by many top hockey people.

Just sayin'
Sorry but I think your analysis is wrong.

He's not a banger, we all agree there.

But from the majority of games I've watched + the intense youtube after he was traded, he's always near the net fishing for rebounds, making passes from behind the net, boxing out players in front of the net, getting deflections etc.

And since he's a big body he is very hard to knock off the puck, he's not a guy that crashes the net, he boxes the net.

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Old
11-25-2012, 10:52 AM
  #36
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Just because things are slow around here, and it seems the Leafs Forum really enjoys reading number crunching, thought I'd bring this back into the conversation and see what people think.

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Old
11-25-2012, 11:11 AM
  #37
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Good job. Sounds reasonable.

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Old
11-25-2012, 11:30 AM
  #38
WTFMAN99
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hockeyfreak7 View Post
That's a very accurate analysis.


As a Flyers fan, I think the increased responsibility will be the single greatest factor in an increase in production next season. As with most big, power forwards, JVR is very much a player who needs to "get into his groove" in order to be effective. If he is not in his groove-- he is invisible. If he is in his groove-- he is a dominant player.

With JVR, when he creates one chance for himself, you can expect for him to create chance after chance after chance. Playing 15 minutes or less per night, he rarely had the opportunity to get into this groove, though, in Philly. What he should benefit most from is stability in Toronto. He will be guaranteed a top six spot, and should see consistency in his ice time night after night.


I was convinced JVR would enjoy a break out season last year with the departure of Richards and Carter, but the resurgence of Hartnell, the chemistry between Jagr/Giroux, and JVR's injuries all impacted JVR's production in one way or another. Many fans soured on him, but the talent was obviously still there. The situation in Philly was just not conducive to the breakout of JVR.


Ultimately, I dont think Toronto fans should worry about JVR being provided quality linemates. He's a player that makes things happen for himself when he is on his game. He doesnt need a great playmaker to set him up or a good shooter for him to clean up rebounds. His game is predicated on his confidence. He has the size and strength to drive to the net, but he has the talent and finesse to create opportunities for himself in other ways. It all comes down to his confidence on the ice. If he thinks he's the best player on the ice, he will be. He just needs to be in a situation where he he has that confidence at all times.
Thanks for that insight, very informative along with the OPs stats he provided.

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11-25-2012, 11:48 AM
  #39
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Was watching highlights of jvr and he seemd very fast and posses a very quick shot. Imo this could work great with kessel or even grabo, this could be a really good trade for the leafs

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11-25-2012, 12:15 PM
  #40
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Analysis like this is very interesting, but often useless.

You can try and calculate what a player's output should be just as you can try and calculate what a business' revenue should be but there is always error, especially in sports. Too many factors are not counted, that cannot be counted, that can prove to either make him exceed expectations or even do worse than predicted. But I do agree with your prediction

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11-25-2012, 12:40 PM
  #41
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I think your analysis would be far more relivant for an older player who is still in the same environment that much of his statitics were generated in.

In this instance there is reason to think that his numbers could improve.

1. He is entering his fourth year with last year being an injury disaster so it is a bit too early to assume he has achieved his potential, a breakout season is still possible.

2. His role, he will be far more important on this team and is almost certain to get more quality minutes than on a stacked Flyers team.

3. Chemistry, it is entirely possible JVR may find great chemistry with someone on our roster and see a spike in production (see Lupul-Kessel) . Maybe if he had spent significant time with Giroux last year I might say he us unlikely to pass that production since it's doubtful we will have a center of that quality any time soon.

One thing I will agree with is to count on at least 20 goals, but I'm hoping for 30.

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11-25-2012, 01:05 PM
  #42
nuck
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Newfie John View Post
That's not true.

He's certainly not a banger, but I wouldn't question his work ethic. He does a very good job of standing in front of the net, and taking a beating while doing so.
He is a grinding beast compared to Mac He was a very offensively creative player as an amateur. I actually think we might see him do a bit more of that playing in the Leafs top 6. I think the Flyers tried to convert him into a power forward and what he really is, is just not soft.

People are making Carlyle sound like Jacques Lemaire. When you look at all the big offensive years players had under RC, I don't see strong evidence that he won't let the offense loose.

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11-25-2012, 01:21 PM
  #43
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nuck View Post
He is a grinding beast compared to Mac He was a very offensively creative player as an amateur. I actually think we might see him do a bit more of that playing in the Leafs top 6. I think the Flyers tried to convert him into a power forward and what he really is, is just not soft.

People are making Carlyle sound like Jacques Lemaire. When you look at all the big offensive years players had under RC, I don't see strong evidence that he won't let the offense loose.
Yeah, Carlyle helped mold Bobby Ryan, Corey Perry and Ryan Getzlaf, all bigger skiled guy who had solid numbers.

I'd hope to see him do the same with JVR.

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11-25-2012, 02:06 PM
  #44
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Originally Posted by Pi View Post
Very very good work. I actually spent the 10-15 mins to read all of that.

I think the numbers are well in the ball park but if he gets off to a blazing start and Lupul is slumping, I don't think Carlyle will hesitate to put him with Kessel.

If he plays significant time with Kessel, I see him potting 30 because Kessel is a very underrated passer.
As much as it may be a failure, the best case scenario is JVR becomes our #1 centre having chemistry with Lupul and Kessel.

I'm not banking on it, but having JVR - Grabo - Mac/Kadri leaves Kulemin - McClement - Frattin as a solid shut down line with some offense.

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11-25-2012, 02:12 PM
  #45
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Originally Posted by exporta View Post
As much as it may be a failure, the best case scenario is JVR becomes our #1 centre having chemistry with Lupul and Kessel.

I'm not banking on it, but having JVR - Grabo - Mac/Kadri leaves Kulemin - McClement - Frattin as a solid shut down line with some offense.
With a new coach anything is possible really. Most people have Kessel and Lupul playing together as a lock, I'm not going to do that. We haven't seen JVR play with anyone yet, he may have better chemistry with Kessel than Lupul. Not to mention with a different style of play under Carlyle we may see Connolly get the #1 center spot this year. But then again there may not be a season and we may not see Connolly in the blue and white again at all, same with Lupul for that matter.

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Old
11-25-2012, 04:12 PM
  #46
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Talk about raisingthe dead. Good read though.

I think JVR has the potential to be that guy we all saw dominate the post season.

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11-25-2012, 04:22 PM
  #47
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This doesn't really have anything to do with the OP (by the way, kudos; that was some good work), but does anyone else see the silver lining in the lockout in regards to JVR?

I was worried when we traded for him that his hip would become an issue all season as he decided not to have surgery and he assumed it would be 100% by the time training camp came around, but now he's being given ample time to let that hip heal and actually come back 100%.

Just a random thought that popped into my mind when seeing the thread.

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11-25-2012, 04:49 PM
  #48
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sergei Berezin View Post
This doesn't really have anything to do with the OP (by the way, kudos; that was some good work), but does anyone else see the silver lining in the lockout in regards to JVR?

I was worried when we traded for him that his hip would become an issue all season as he decided not to have surgery and he assumed it would be 100% by the time training camp came around, but now he's being given ample time to let that hip heal and actually come back 100%.

Just a random thought that popped into my mind when seeing the thread.
Oh yeah, I had forgotten about that but I was a little worried about it. He should be 100% healthy then

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Old
11-25-2012, 06:49 PM
  #49
charliolemieux
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sergei Berezin View Post
This doesn't really have anything to do with the OP (by the way, kudos; that was some good work), but does anyone else see the silver lining in the lockout in regards to JVR?

I was worried when we traded for him that his hip would become an issue all season as he decided not to have surgery and he assumed it would be 100% by the time training camp came around, but now he's being given ample time to let that hip heal and actually come back 100%.

Just a random thought that popped into my mind when seeing the thread.
A year off saved Selanne's knee. Look what he's done since.

YOu might be on to something here.

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Old
11-25-2012, 07:03 PM
  #50
7even
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Fantastic insight. Well done. The obvious wrench in all of this is normal progression/development, which is pretty much impossible to control for. Which makes me sad because I <3 my stats.

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