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Old
06-26-2012, 12:07 PM
  #1
Lonewolfe2015
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All Purpose Stastny Thread

Hasn't been a central location in awhile, other fans keep asking about him or other centers... let's combine this stuff and give a solid location to show other fanbases our thoughts on him and why we want to keep him.

I thought I'd open up the thread with the right idea and provide an analytical argument in Stastny's favor. I'm almost out of time so I can't go into too much more depth right now, but I'm sure others will post some solid arguments in here and I can always link them in the OP for a quick TOC.

If you have a request for me to look into, I'll see what I can do later.

Career Numbers, Projected Career Numbers
SeasonGPGAP+/-PIMPPGSHGGWGSS%
2006-2007822850784421106 18515.1%
2007-200866244771222430413817.4%
Proj:82305888273040517117.4%
2008-200945112536-9227021189.3%
Proj:82204666-164013042159.3%
2009-20108120597925090219910.1%
2010-201174223557-75641318112.2%
Proj:82243963-86241320112.2%
2011 Portion3681321-930001879.2%
2011-201279213253-83470219011.1%
Proj:82223355-83570219711.1%
2011 Portion37111021-6144009311.8%
Career Total:427126248374422841119101112.5%
Career Avg:7121416213870316912.5%
Career Proj/828224487214480419412.5%

2011 Calendar Year and Adjusted Career Numbers without 2011
SeasonGPGAP+/-PIMPPGSHGGWGSS%
2011 Calendar73192342-154440118010.6%
2011 Proj/8282222748-175150120710.6%
Total W/O 2011:354107225332191843711883112.9%
Proj W/O 2011:8225527744390419212.9%

The typical Stastny to X thread typically devolves into a series of statements such as; “He’s declined the past two years” “He hasn’t played like he did when he entered the league in a long time” “He’s a second line center” “He’s not that good”. Given the lack of knowledge (aka, ignorance) regarding Staz, I did some math in the past which just required a quick update to the spreadsheet for his final 2011-12 numbers.

The key to this argument in my opinion revolves around the second table, Stastny's 2011 numbers. These numbers have logical grounding within both observational data and statistical data.

First, the obvious thing noted is that his goal totals did not decrease. Stastny is a career 20 goal scorer, never falling outside that range without severe injury hampering his season (2008-2009) but still projecting to 20+ goals.

So then, why is Stastny "declining"?
Because his assist totals have been down for two seasons now, while observationally he still has "it" with his passing game, making ridiculous plays look easy. The proof is based on his linemate TOI charts via Behindthenet.

Stastny's TOI and Linemate TOI% with him
SeasonStaz TOILinemateTOI%TOIGP
2010-111117.03DAVIDJONES40.74552745
  CHRISSTEWART32.23601330
  MILANHEJDUK27.33052256
  KEVINPORTER21.42391425
2011-121205.33DAVIDJONES47.15682037
  MILANHEJDUK34.64171437
  MATTDUCHENE26.73221428
  T.J.GALIARDI17205814

During the 2010 portion of 2010-11 season, he was primarily playing on the Galiardi – Stastny – Stewart line, one which was extremely dominant. The first ~4 months of that season the Avalanche were actually the #1 scoring team in the entire league, and it coincided with their higher standings as well (briefly flirting with the division leading Canucks during their SCF season). The team was firing on all cylinders offensively. In fact, the trio combined for 18 goals, 37 points over the first 14 games of the season before Galiardi went down and then Stewart went down a couple weeks later.

It wasn’t long before Stastny began accepting rotations of Hejduk (30% TOI), Jones (44% TOI) and Porter (27.5% TOI) on his wings from January onward. Additional rotations included the likes of Ryan Stoa (50% TOI) and Brandon Yip (17% TOI). How did his numbers respond? 21 points in the final 36 games, or .58 P/G.

Likewise, he started 2011-12 on a Jones – Stastny – Kobasew line, atrocious to say the least. Galiardi found his way on there for a little while, Hejduk played there until around January/February and Duchene was rotated onto his left wing with Jones/Winnik playing the right side for awhile until Duchy got hurt.

However, around January/February Mueller returned and was placed with Stastny and Jones… the scoring started back up. Then McGinn was acquired and he played with Stastny and Jones, the line combined for 18 goals, 35 points in 17 games, harkening back to the days where Stewart was on Staz’s line.

Well, what does all of that mean? (tl;dr)

Stastny played with a bunch of linemates during the 2011 season which were either not scoring (Jones, Duchene), declining (Hejduk), scrubs (Porter, Stoa, Yip) or bottom 6 forwards (Winnik, Kobasew). This did not affect his game because Stastny kept plugging away in the goal scoring columns, faceoffs, defensive responsibilities, etc. But it affected his assist totals because he is a playmaker, simple tap in goals were not being scored sometimes even.

It was not until Mueller returned from injury and McGinn was acquired and Jones snapped out of his cold streak (with the help of McGinn) that Stastny began to get assists back. As evidenced by the fact he had more goals than assists until the 2012 calendar year turned at the start of the 2011-12 season.

I'm a fan of another team, how does this affect Stastny's value to Avs fans?

It doesn't change anything, he is still a 20g, 50a center in the eyes of Avs fans given the proper linemates. He is our only veteran center (most tenured Avalanche after Hejduk) on a team of youngsters. His contract is not a burden and his most frequent linemate the past two seasons; David Jones; was just re-signed to a 4-year deal. Stastny will be given a chance to prove his worth over the course of the 2012-13 season with a lineup filled with solid wingers and specifically extending his McGinn-Stastny-Jones line's success from 2012.

If you want to offer for him, solve our need for a top pairing defender (preferrably LH and under 27) OR offer a can't-miss scoring winger which also would play well with Duchene (Duchene likes to control the flow of offense by having the puck on his stick) and has the legs to keep up with him.

We do not need prospects. We do not need picks. We do not need your cap dumps. We do not care if one of your players scored as much or similarly to Stastny the past two years, because that's not how we value him. Read the post if you don't agree with that statement.

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Old
06-26-2012, 12:09 PM
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What a boss!



Edit: I forgot to add that you did a great job Lonewolfe!


Last edited by BrickAHL: 06-26-2012 at 12:21 PM.
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06-26-2012, 12:13 PM
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Your too sick. Makes a lot of sense and our "he doesn't have good wingers" arguement is totally valid

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06-26-2012, 12:14 PM
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Well this and the rumours have reared it's ugly head again. However, let's be honest, there's a desperate market for a no1 centre (and some GM's will still regard him as a no1 centre). If we get the type of returns that Mike Richards got then it would be mouth-drooling. If we fill out the positional need and actually land someone like Jamie Benn then that'd be amazing (I think Benn is a slightly overrated youngster compared to Ennis or someone but still).

I think we need to have more faith in Duchene/ROR and the prospects like Hishon (who will be really good if he gets healthy). I like Staz for the reasons mentioned above but I don't move ROR or Duchene ahead of him and he's the best we got if we want that winger, I don't expect Parise to sign here.

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06-26-2012, 12:16 PM
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Great, well-informed, post Lonewolfe2015.

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06-26-2012, 12:17 PM
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Great job Lonewolfe, hopefully Paul gets back to his PPG ways playing with decent linemates and stays an Av for a long time.

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06-26-2012, 12:20 PM
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Originally Posted by QuietCompany View Post
Well this and the rumours have reared it's ugly head again. However, let's be honest, there's a desperate market for a no1 centre (and some GM's will still regard him as a no1 centre). If we get the type of returns that Mike Richards got then it would be mouth-drooling. If we fill out the positional need and actually land someone like Jamie Benn then that'd be amazing (I think Benn is a slightly overrated youngster compared to Ennis or someone but still).

I think we need to have more faith in Duchene/ROR and the prospects like Hishon (who will be really good if he gets healthy). I like Staz for the reasons mentioned above but I don't move ROR or Duchene ahead of him and he's the best we got if we want that winger, I don't expect Parise to sign here.
Hey, just happened to be lurking about. Stastny will never, ever net you Jamie Benn. If he isn't already better than him now, he will be pretty soon at their current rates of devlopment.

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06-26-2012, 12:20 PM
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Wow, well done Lonewolfe! The Jones signing is pretty much a sign that Stastny will be sticking around for the near future.

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06-26-2012, 12:21 PM
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Paul Stastny is Ron Francis v 2.0 (not a slant....Ron Francis was a hell of a good player...but...)

Gotta have good wingers to play alongside of him or he's going to be ineffective.

He should be our 2nd line center, and getting a top 15 defenseman in this league for him is a rediculous trade proposal.

Unfortunately he's our 1st line center right now. Need Duchene or O'Reilly to step up and take the first line for us to proceed as an organization.

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06-26-2012, 12:28 PM
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Elever
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Originally Posted by Captain Awesome View Post
Hey, just happened to be lurking about. Stastny will never, ever net you Jamie Benn. If he isn't already better than him now, he will be pretty soon at their current rates of devlopment.
I know that Benn's point production has gone up in each of his 3 seasons but don't think that he'll be an annual ppg and be hitting 80 pts all the time unless goal scoring league-wide goes up. He's not a prospect who I think is gonna keep getting better and better (he will get somewhat better but I think he's closer to his ceiling than you think).

However I was using him as an example, the Stars have poor depth on the wing and at centre so I don't expect him to be a guy they can move, they have to develop their own centres like Faksa. Bobby Ryan is probably a better comparison (though part of me would rather keep Stasny than Ryan).

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06-26-2012, 12:32 PM
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You know looking at that, Stastnys 2010/11 season wasnt actually that bad. He was still pretty much on a 65 point pace, and was at a PPG before the wheels fell off down the stretch.

IMO this was the first year were Stas had an offseason, and even then the entire Avs team struggled as far as point production goes, nobody over 55 Pts, only 3 over 50.

I still think it would be a HUGE mistake to move Stastny, no doubt with a Top Line winger he would easily be a PPG player again. With McGinn and Jones next year I think he'll be back in the 65-70 range.

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06-26-2012, 12:33 PM
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Stastny is really a 1B. A player who can play on the first line for a lot of teams, but on a great team he would be a #2. With good linemates and getting up around 20 minutes per game I see him getting around 70 points next year. If he gets his line shuffled again and hovers around 17-18 minutes per game I expect 55-60 points (basically very good 2nd line numbers).

For centers, Stastny finished 26th in scoring (10-11 was also 26th). So while his 53 points were dissapointing, it has to be remembered that scoring is down (only 9 centers broke the 70 point mark).

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06-26-2012, 12:34 PM
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Bender
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Great job on this Lonewolfe!!!

Now if only there was a way to customize a 'button' that would auto-paste this :

http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh...53&postcount=1

into every Statnsy trade proposals!

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06-26-2012, 12:40 PM
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I expect Stastny will be back to near PPG pace next season. Having two shooters on his line was the most obvious thing for most Avs fans, he is almost as pure a playmaker as there is in the league. Having both McGinn and Jones being physical players only seems to free up Stasny for him to work his magic. Hopefully Radar can continue his progression, and Duchene working with Crosby over the summer gets him back on track. This team really needs all three centers to be leading their lines.

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06-26-2012, 12:42 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by henchman24 View Post
Stastny is really a 1B. A player who can play on the first line for a lot of teams, but on a great team he would be a #2. With good linemates and getting up around 20 minutes per game I see him getting around 70 points next year. If he gets his line shuffled again and hovers around 17-18 minutes per game I expect 55-60 points (basically very good 2nd line numbers).

For centers, Stastny finished 26th in scoring (10-11 was also 26th). So while his 53 points were dissapointing, it has to be remembered that scoring is down (only 9 centers broke the 70 point mark).
I personally think that Stastny could hit even higher highs, if he were playing with an elite scorer (ex: Gaborik, Kessel or Parise). Jones and McGinn are nice players and the chemistry seems to work but they don't score goals at the pace of those 3 guys in the example. [no wonder Leaf fans want him so bad ]

At 26, Stastny is now approaching his prime and I've always thought that he's a guy who could possibly reach up to 90 points (even if scoring is down throughout the league). (His career high is 79 points, it's not that much of a stretch that he'd put up 11 more points while in his prime)

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06-26-2012, 02:03 PM
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Lonewolfe2015
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Hey, just happened to be lurking about. Stastny will never, ever net you Jamie Benn. If he isn't already better than him now, he will be pretty soon at their current rates of devlopment.
Most sensible people know that.

Benn is to Stastny just as Duchene is to Stastny, the more valuable and skilled player but not exactly the clearcut better player yet.

The closer comparison was Eriksson and Stastny tbh.

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06-26-2012, 05:01 PM
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loanwolfe, being a beast as usual.

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06-30-2012, 06:59 PM
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chewey
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Not sure how I missed a thread on my favorite player and in positive light! Nicely done Wolphie. Nicely done.


*that's suppose to be a high-5 btw

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06-30-2012, 10:01 PM
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I love Staz!

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07-03-2012, 01:07 AM
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Zih
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In the calendar year of 2012, and also in the 17 games after the McGinn trade, Stastny was on a scoring pace of 62.5 over a full season. I'd say that's about what I'd optimistically expect from Stastny if he is paired with decent wingers who can combine for 35+ goals.

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07-04-2012, 05:06 PM
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Originally Posted by Bonzai12 View Post
Paul Stastny is Ron Francis v 2.0 (not a slant....Ron Francis was a hell of a good player...but...)

Gotta have good wingers to play alongside of him or he's going to be ineffective.

He should be our 2nd line center, and getting a top 15 defenseman in this league for him is a rediculous trade proposal.

Unfortunately he's our 1st line center right now. Need Duchene or O'Reilly to step up and take the first line for us to proceed as an organization.
Are you sure you want to stick with that comparison?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of..._season_points

Ron Francis was only a second line player when playing with Mario Lemieux.

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07-04-2012, 05:11 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zeus3007 View Post
Are you sure you want to stick with that comparison?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of..._season_points

Ron Francis was only a second line player when playing with Mario Lemieux.
And only won a cup with Mario when he was the second line center. Which was my point - for the Avs to progress to a championship level I think he needs to be our second center. So......where's the problem in the comparison?

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07-04-2012, 05:28 PM
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And only won a cup with Mario when he was the second line center. Which was my point - for the Avs to progress to a championship level I think he needs to be our second center. So......where's the problem in the comparison?
Are you really trying to claim that Ron Francis should have carried the bloody Harford Whalers to a cup, lol. Ron Francis, one of the best players of all time, was a second line center in the way that Evgeni Malkin is a second line center.

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07-04-2012, 06:29 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zeus3007 View Post
Are you really trying to claim that Ron Francis should have carried the bloody Harford Whalers to a cup, lol. Ron Francis, one of the best players of all time, was a second line center in the way that Evgeni Malkin is a second line center.
Hey if I made an error at all in the comparison, I believe it's that I overrate Paul Stastny - he's not going to be as good as Ron Francis. Francis I think averaged over a PPG in his entire career, and I don't know if Paul's gonna get there. His success is going to depend on his linemates, and I think that's obvious now into his career. But anyways, I do think Stastny needs to be our second line center for us to win. I just don't see him carrying this team on his back. Are you trying to argue the merits of Stastny or of Ron Francis? I stated in my post up there that I think Ron Francis is one hell of a player already.

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07-04-2012, 07:02 PM
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Lonewolfe2015
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Originally Posted by Bonzai12 View Post
Hey if I made an error at all in the comparison, I believe it's that I overrate Paul Stastny - he's not going to be as good as Ron Francis. Francis I think averaged over a PPG in his entire career, and I don't know if Paul's gonna get there. His success is going to depend on his linemates, and I think that's obvious now into his career. But anyways, I do think Stastny needs to be our second line center for us to win. I just don't see him carrying this team on his back. Are you trying to argue the merits of Stastny or of Ron Francis? I stated in my post up there that I think Ron Francis is one hell of a player already.
I believe he was just stating how different their overall abilities are, which you didn't make clear in your post.

Personally, I believe the better term would be 1b center for success. There aren't a lot of clearcut better centers in the league, having a 1a/1b of Staz/Duchene is pretty much the ideal situation if Duchene returns to his potential.

I still believe that our current 3 centers could not be anymore perfect in the real world (of course they could each be all world... but I digress).

Duchy should be a talented goal scoring center with decent 2-way abilities. Let's say a 35/45 center. Stastny is a talented playmaking center with great 2-way abilities. Let's say 20/50 center. O'Reilly is a talented 2-way center with great defensive abilities. Let's say 25/35 center.

It's pretty much the best case situation as a franchise. None of them are going to get paid like Crosby/Malkin, but all of them together make an elite unit capable of providing any style of play required to win.

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