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Habs Board 2012 Prospect Rankings #3

View Poll Results: Who is #3
Tim Bozon 0 0%
Jarred Tinordi 114 58.16%
Darren Dietz 0 0%
Louis Leblanc 48 24.49%
Alexander Avtsin 0 0%
Brendan Gallagher 15 7.65%
Sebastien Collberg 19 9.69%
Morgan Ellis 0 0%
Patrick Holland 0 0%
Black Geoffrion 0 0%
Michael Bournival 0 0%
Dalton Thrower 0 0%
Steve Quailer 0 0%
Aaron Palushaj 0 0%
Danny Kristo 0 0%
Voters: 196. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
06-26-2012, 07:13 PM
  #51
PK76
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Frank Drebin View Post
Leblanc - what is his upside? Top 6 forward? 20 goal guy?

I ask because he looked really good from what I saw of him but most fans aren't that optimistic?
People see him as a 3rd liner at best so they rank him under players who seem to have more offensive upside but I feel like Leblanc's hockey IQ and two-way game are going to help him be a very solid player in the league.

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Old
06-26-2012, 07:30 PM
  #52
Galchenyuk94
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Leblanc add Bennett

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Old
06-26-2012, 09:00 PM
  #53
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tinordi-Add Nygren

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Old
06-26-2012, 09:51 PM
  #54
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Tinordi for me, I've even voted for him before Beaulieu. Beaulieu's defensive lapses makes me doubt he's ever gonna be a first pairing D at 5 on 5 while I think Tinordi will be a shutdown D relied upon to face other teams top lines and be on the first PK unit.

Edit : add Bennett

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Old
06-26-2012, 09:53 PM
  #55
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Tinordi, since he's actually better than the guy at #2.

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Old
06-26-2012, 10:02 PM
  #56
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Jeez. No respect for Leblanc whatsoever

How can a kid that is already a 3rd liner in the nhl be behind kids that didnt even play AHL..

I mean, he can't regress(Well, yes he could but won't happen.) THE KID IS GOLD AND YOU KNOW IM RIGHT.

I was right with Patches three year ago, I was right with Eller two years ago (Well...Im not 100% right atm :l), I will be right in two years too.

Jeez, Marc, just hire me -_-

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06-26-2012, 10:03 PM
  #57
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mrb1p View Post
Jeez. No respect for Leblanc whatsoever

How can a kid that is already a 3rd liner in the nhl be behind kids that didnt even play AHL..

I mean, he can't regress(Well, yes he could but won't happen.) THE KID IS GOLD AND YOU KNOW IM RIGHT.

I was right with Patches three year ago, I was right with Eller two years ago (Well...Im not 100% right atm :l), I will be right in two years too.

Jeez, Marc, just hire me -_-
Because people rank prospects on potential, not on how close they are to the NHL. That's just dumb.

I guess Palushaj is a better prospect than Galchenyuk guys, we gotta start over!

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06-26-2012, 10:10 PM
  #58
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mrb1p View Post
Jeez. No respect for Leblanc whatsoever

How can a kid that is already a 3rd liner in the nhl be behind kids that didnt even play AHL..

I mean, he can't regress(Well, yes he could but won't happen.) THE KID IS GOLD AND YOU KNOW IM RIGHT.

I was right with Patches three year ago, I was right with Eller two years ago (Well...Im not 100% right atm :l), I will be right in two years too.

Jeez, Marc, just hire me -_-
Because it's all about risk and projections. Leblanc won't be a first line player. That's not where his skillset is and that's not his game. But there's very little risk in projecting him as a 2nd or 3rd line player because he's so smart and has a decent amount of skill.

Beaulieu or Collberg carry more risk, and might not ever reach their full potential, but they have a better chance of being more impactful players than Leblanc does.

Leblanc isn't our best prospect, but he's the closest one...

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Old
06-26-2012, 10:11 PM
  #59
Mrb1p
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Quote:
Originally Posted by overlords View Post
Because people rank prospects on potential, not on how close they are to the NHL. That's just dumb.

I guess Palushaj is a better prospect than Galchenyuk guys, we gotta start over!
I get it, that's why I dindt say nothing about Galchenyuk.

But, there's also something else than just upside

Realistic Probability Rating (A-F)
(the player's realistic chances of achieving their potential):


That's why Leblanc gets the upper-hand.

Sure, Collberg is a 8.5 c for me, sure Beaulieu is 8.5 C for me but for me Leblanc is a clear cut 8.0 B wich put's him over both of them.

So guy's since Avtsin has a potential of being Ovechkin-Lite lets put him first !!!!

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Old
06-26-2012, 10:13 PM
  #60
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shutdown View Post
Because it's all about risk and projections. Leblanc won't be a first line player. That's not where his skillset is and that's not his game. But there's very little risk in projecting him as a 2nd or 3rd line player because he's so smart and has a decent amount of skill.

Beaulieu or Collberg carry more risk, and might not ever reach their full potential, but they have a better chance of being more impactful players than Leblanc does.

Leblanc isn't our best prospect, but he's the closest one...
Leblanc has Plekanec upside. Plekanec would be my best prospect 9 out of 10.

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06-26-2012, 10:23 PM
  #61
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mrb1p View Post
I get it, that's why I dindt say nothing about Galchenyuk.

But, there's also something else than just upside

Realistic Probability Rating (A-F)
(the player's realistic chances of achieving their potential):


That's why Leblanc gets the upper-hand.

Sure, Collberg is a 8.5 c for me, sure Beaulieu is 8.5 C for me but for me Leblanc is a clear cut 8.0 B wich put's him over both of them.

So guy's since Avtsin has a potential of being Ovechkin-Lite lets put him first !!!!
Pretty important, imo.

Everyone will have a different way of ranking prospects. I love Leblanc, but I think he tops out as a 2nd line winger. I don't see him playing at centre in the future, so I'd have to disagree with your plekanec comparison. In the WJC, Collberg has already outproduced Leblanc (ppg) while being a year younger, so that's already something in his favor.

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Old
06-26-2012, 10:27 PM
  #62
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Didn't even look at list, went right to Collberg. Don't regret it

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Old
06-26-2012, 10:57 PM
  #63
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mrb1p View Post
Leblanc has Plekanec upside. Plekanec would be my best prospect 9 out of 10.
Not everyone will agree with you there. I think his upside's a little lower than Plekanec's.

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Old
06-26-2012, 11:28 PM
  #64
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Not everyone will agree with you there. I think his upside's a little lower than Plekanec's.
I don't know. He comes with significantly more offensive potential than Plekanec did, imo. Leblanc scored pretty much as many goals in any of his single full seasons of minor hockey as Pleks had in his entire time in the Czech developmental system. Leblanc has always been a pretty reliable goal scorer, and he has the awareness and engine of Plekanec. I'd be tempted to guess that Leblanc won't top out quite on Pleks' level defensively, but I won't be surprised if Leblanc gets close to (or even passes) Pleks as an NHL goal scorer.

---

Which aspect is more coveted will change with the flow of the league. After L.A.'s little run against a full group of talented top seeds, teams might covet similarly defensive monsters like Richards/Brown, or they may covet goal scorers more since goals might get harder to come by. Never know. Guys with that effective blend of the two, though, will no doubt remain valuable regardless. That's why I'm voting Leblanc over Tinordi. Argument could be made for Collberg, but he hasn't proven ability to withstand the rigors of a physical pro game yet; Leblanc has, imo.

I think Tinordi is only going to be a top 4 defenseman if an excuse is found to put him next to a very talented, more offensive defenseman. Otherwise, I could see him looking like he deserves to be no more than a 3rd pairing guy beside anyone "average" - no matter how many minutes he has proven he can crunch at the junior level.

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06-26-2012, 11:29 PM
  #65
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Not everyone will agree with you there. I think his upside's a little lower than Plekanec's.
Bigger, grittier Plekanec. Perhaps not as good offensively but I'm sure he can be a consistant 50pts scorer.

The unfair thing about this is that we rate newly drafted prospect based on the maximum potential they can reach while we rate prospects closer to the NHL based on the potential we see in them after years of development&more accurate observations. In Leblanc's draft year he was a 1st/2nd line center and this is not true anymore. The same might be said about all these high end potential picks in a few years.

I really like all of this years' picks at first glance but its unfair to put Collberg or any pick outside Galchenyuk (for obvious reasons) ahead of Leblanc for instance. Collberg has higher end potential but he might also never be more than some kind of Palushaj. Don't get me wrong, I really like the Collberg pick, but there is no telling he'll be able to use his shot effectively in the NHL, we also don't know if he's going to get better or if progression will stagnate. The comparisons to Alfredsson are nice obviously but he could also be a faster Ryder with less grit. Point is that a lot of people peg guys like Thrower and Bozon on the 2nd pairing or 2nd line while they might never be effective NHlers. Every year you see newly drafted guys on top of many people's list were they rarely belong. Take Avtsin for instance, two years ago he was top5 on some lists (...)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ohashi_Jouzu
I think Tinordi is only going to be a top 4 defenseman if an excuse is found to put him next to a very talented, more offensive defenseman. Otherwise, I could see him looking like he deserves to be no more than a 3rd pairing guy beside anyone "average" - no matter how many minutes he has proven he can crunch at the junior level.
Tinordi's lack of offensive play and puck skills worries me too much to vote for him ahead of Leblanc and perhaps Gallagher (who is awesome). I'm afraid at NHL level he's going to handle the puck like a hand grenade, luckily we have great puck handling defensemen in the system (Markov, Subban, Beaulieu). Even Komisarek was supposed to be slightly skilled when we drafted him and we all know how that turned out.


Last edited by FlyingKostitsyn: 06-26-2012 at 11:39 PM.
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Old
06-26-2012, 11:30 PM
  #66
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Leblanc was a first round pick and Plekanec was picked in the third round. However, as I look back to the first time I saw Plekanec in 2002 I recognized him as an important future Hab. I didn't have quite the same feeling about Leblanc, although I don't doubt he will play in the NHL for quite a few years. As for Collberg, I know only when I've read about him but his reputation of having a good shot tempts me to put him slightly ahead of Leblanc (who in turn is a lot better than Palushaj, who I predict will be moved to make room for more talented prospects).

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Old
06-26-2012, 11:46 PM
  #67
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FlyingKostitsyn View Post
Bigger, grittier Plekanec. Perhaps not as good offensively but I'm sure he can be a consistant 50pts scorer.

The unfair thing about this is that we rate newly drafted prospect based on the maximum potential they can reach while we rate prospects closer to the NHL based on the potential we see in them after years of development&more accurate observations. In Leblanc's draft year he was a 1st/2nd line center and this is not true anymore. The same might be said about all these high end potential picks in a few years.

I really like all of this years' picks at first glance but its unfair to put Collberg or any pick outside Galchenyuk (for obvious reasons) ahead of Leblanc for instance. Collberg has higher end potential but he might also never be more than some kind of Palushaj. Don't get me wrong, I really like the Collberg pick, but there is no telling he'll be able to use his shot effectively in the NHL, we also don't know if he's going to get better or if progression will stagnate. The comparisons to Alfredsson are nice obviously but he could also be a faster Ryder. Point is that a lot of people peg guys like Thrower and Bozon on the 2nd pairing or 2nd line while they might never be effective NHlers. Every year you see newly drafted guys on top of many people's list were they rarely belong. Take Avtsin for instance, two years ago he was top5 on some lists (...)
I agree with what you are saying for the most part, and don't forget there's a reason Collberg was projected between 10 and 25 (and ended up dropping further) and not top 10 - he was a steal where he was drafted and I think as a prospect he is in the same league as Beaulieu, Tinordi and Leblanc (but not Galchenyuk), but there's no guaranteeing he's a future first liner. I think he's a notably better prospect overall than Kristo or Gallagher but one of those could very well end up better.

Leblanc doesn't have Plekanec's shot and I'm not sure about his top speed (but his skating is good). But also nobody expected Plekanec to become what he is and the majority with his skillet, no matter how hard they work, won't reach Plekanec's level. Leblanc is skilled, he has the size advtantage over Plekanec and is more comfortable with physical play than Plek was at the same age.

I liked the Leblanc pick but since day one I've seen two way player with 2nd line potential or as a 3rd line anchor if they focus on his defensive game first. Players like that can be more valuable than goalscorers, especially if Collberg doesn't reach his peak potential. Collberg is still my choice for 4 because it's very much an organizational need and Leblanc never wowed me the way Collberg has, but at this point it's more a matter of what you value more in a prospect.

All I know is the fact that we can have this discussion about our top 5 prospects is exciting.

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Old
06-27-2012, 07:45 AM
  #68
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Tinordi, just barely ahead of Leblanc. I see both being useful second pairing/line players in the not-too-distant future.

Add Bennett.

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Old
06-27-2012, 08:02 AM
  #69
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I look at impact and I think Tinordi will have a bigger impact then LL.

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06-27-2012, 08:14 AM
  #70
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[QUOTE=MTL-rules;51554957]Leblanc and Tinordi, also never performed the way Collberg did at 17 in the WJC or did they dominate the way he did against boys his age. If Collberg was playing in the CHL, he would have Yakupov-like numbers.

The only question mark is the transition to pro hockey... but based purely on skills Collberg has way bigger upside than both Tinordi and Leblanc... actually, I put him second and I would dare to say that his offensive skills are as good as Galchenyuk.[/QUOTE]

I think he has the best wrister out of any prospect (on our team) and his skating is better than Galchenyuk's so in terms of goal scoring potential: he can be a 30 goal scorer with hopefully a few forties (one can dream). He is excellent at creating space or lanes using his skating and absolutely lasering a wrister because he doesn't need much time or space to put an extremely accurate wrist shot on net.

However, in terms of overall offensive skills its Galchenyuk by quite a bit because he has many more tools that are far above Collberg.

Collberg's skating and wrister --> Gally's
Gally's vision, backhand, stickhandling, and passing --> Collberg

Therefore, I believe Gally has better offensive skills since he's no slouch at skating or shooting

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