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Acq/ Rost. Bldg./ Cap Part XV

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06-27-2012, 08:02 PM
  #1
Langway
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Acq/ Rost. Bldg./ Cap Part XV

http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh....php?t=1210449


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06-27-2012, 08:04 PM
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XV! Nice!


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06-27-2012, 08:29 PM
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My biggest fear is GMGM standing pat. If you want to bring Semin back then fine. If you want to replace him then fine. But one or the other has to be done. He has mentioned multiple times how he isnt fond of FA and how he is cautious now because of last year. I know he plays things close to his chest and is usually full of **** (no trades in the works before the draft and he trades for Ribs). But what scares me is he thought the team was good enough at the trade deadline last year and my biggest fear then was just that. That he wouldnt pull the trigger on buying or selling. If GMGM thinks the upgrade is Oates then we are in for a REALLY long and painful year. Im not down on Oates but he isn't going to magically turn this team completely around without some new additions. I dont expect a Parise or a Suter but something is needed somewhere. Even if it would be upgrading the 3C and maybe 3W and a 5th/6th D.

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06-27-2012, 08:37 PM
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He's not standing pat. He's made two trades in the least week and has signed free agents on July 1 every year in the Ovechkin era when he's had cap space.

We'll see something on Sunday.

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06-27-2012, 08:39 PM
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Originally Posted by NobodyBeatsTheWiz View Post
He's not standing pat. He's made two trades in the least week and has signed free agents on July 1 every year in the Ovechkin era when he's had cap space.

We'll see something on Sunday.
Man it would be awesome if he signed Parise,.....just to see the Pens fans lose their friggin minds !

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06-27-2012, 08:46 PM
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Man it would be awesome if he signed Parise,.....just to see the Pens fans lose their friggin minds !
I'll love it if the Pens sign nobody good and they have Derek Engellend or Ben Lovejoy on their second pair.

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06-27-2012, 08:47 PM
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Man it would be awesome if he signed Parise,.....just to see the Pens fans lose their friggin minds !
If we signed Suter, that'll make Pens fans lose their mind.

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06-27-2012, 08:50 PM
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In their defense, people were still happy with Semin's performance against Boston, so it took a while to realize that on balance Semin's playoffs output is the same 50-50 as it has been most years. He's not a "tilt-the-ice" guy, he's brought in for offense.. Though yes, 80% of the criticism is stupid.

Ovechkin is the inevitable next scapegoat, perhaps with Green as the continued side kick. Alternate title for Young Guns should've been "There can be only one. And that one is Backstrom."

Ovi's up against the wall now. Either he gets back to where opponents' D are shaking in their boots, or his legs have to be churning for full shifts.. anything else and negativity will continue building.
People were happy with his performance against Boston? Funny, I must have missed it amongst the torrential rain of "Semin is total **** omfg get him out of here" sentiment that has been coming from everywhere since the season ended. I guess there was 5 minutes of people acknowledging that he stepped up and played well before things went south and every failure was thrown on him again.

And yeah, Backstrom is gonna be our golden boy. Puts in a playoff performance worse than any of Semin's in the 2011 playoffs, all is forgotten the day after that season ends. He could probably get suspended for a critical playoff game on a selfish crosscheck, give away a game on an unforced OT turnover and take a penalty when we're down 2-1 in a game 7 and not get any crap for it. If Semin did something like that, boy oh boy.

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06-27-2012, 08:50 PM
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All I know is we gotta keep the roman numeral thing going, heh.

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06-27-2012, 08:50 PM
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(Responding to the previous thread)

First off all, Carter was a deadline acquisition, so it doesn't really put any bearing on what we enter the regular season with. Secondly, Laich on the wing, with Ribeiro at center, should be a twenty goal scorer again which, as NBTW pointed out, is basically as good as the Kings top two regular season wingers were.

Do we need to add talent to succeed next season? Absolutely. But, I disagree that if we don't add a Bobby Ryan or Alexander Semin quality player to the second line that the Caps might as well concede the season and wait until 2013-2014.

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06-27-2012, 08:53 PM
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So it's clear, the Kings had the NHL's worst offense during most of the regular season. Their play in the playoffs pretty much blindsided all observers. Anyone who thinks the Capitals could make the playoffs with the Kings' pathetic offense from this past season is exhibiting symptoms of serious mental disability.

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06-27-2012, 09:06 PM
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Thank our lucky stars people, today is a good day. The defensively shocking and inept Dennis Wideman is no more in a capitals jersey. Finally no more blunders that cost us big, we can move forward with great prospects such as Orlov and go after a cup the right way instead of overrated, overpaid and over the hill players like Wideman.

Sorry i don't care what you offer going forward because we got Ovi, Backstrom, Semin et al to do that, your first job is to DEFEND your goal and if you can't do that as a D-Man then i don't want you personally.

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06-27-2012, 09:06 PM
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The Caps top 6 goal scoring forwards last year scored 109 combined goals.

For reference's sake, here is the number of goals scored by the Cup champ's top 6 forwards:

2011-12: 115
2010-11: 135
2009-10: 146
2008-09: 159
2007-08: 160
2006-07: 171
2005-06: 190

Notice a trend? I had no idea the numbers would come out like this, but its almost shocking to see a decline every single year.

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06-27-2012, 09:11 PM
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At this rate we're gonna have a cup champ in 2018 with 0 top 6 goals scored.

Sounds legit.


Last edited by Halpysback: 06-27-2012 at 09:19 PM.
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06-27-2012, 09:11 PM
  #15
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Originally Posted by NobodyBeatsTheWiz View Post
The Caps top 6 goal scoring forwards last year scored 109 combined goals.

For reference's sake, here is the number of goals scored by the Cup champ's top 6 forwards:

2011-12: 115
2010-11: 135
2009-10: 146
2008-09: 159
2007-08: 160
2006-07: 171
2005-06: 190

Notice a trend? I had no idea the numbers would come out like this, but its almost shocking to see a decline every single year.
How about you adjust those numbers based on league-wide scoring rates and then look for a trend?

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06-27-2012, 09:14 PM
  #16
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Playing the projecting game:

Ovechkin: 40 goals
Backstrom: 27 goals (his full season pace last season)
Johansson: 18 goals
Ribeiro: 20 goals

That's 105 goals, and I think a pretty realistic estimate, with the potential to be higher.

Two more guys at 20 goals each, and it puts them at 145 goals--more than the last two Cup champs, and right in line with the Hawks Cup winning team.

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06-27-2012, 09:18 PM
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Scoring in general has been on the decline, and IINM more heavily so on special teams (where top 6 players would tend to be favored), so it's not *that* surprising. What's surprising to me is how dramatic and consistent it is.

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06-27-2012, 09:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kazer View Post
(Responding to the previous thread)

First off all, Carter was a deadline acquisition, so it doesn't really put any bearing on what we enter the regular season with. Secondly, Laich on the wing, with Ribeiro at center, should be a twenty goal scorer again which, as NBTW pointed out, is basically as good as the Kings top two regular season wingers were.

Do we need to add talent to succeed next season? Absolutely. But, I disagree that if we don't add a Bobby Ryan or Alexander Semin quality player to the second line that the Caps might as well concede the season and wait until 2013-2014.
The problem is that there's very little on the market at all. Who would you suggest the Caps sign as a 20 goal scorer on the second line? Whitney is old and will be in high demand. Doan is the same but in even higher demand, and he'll probably be staying in the southwest. Hudler is Semin-lite, it's hard to believe we'd let Semin walk only to replace him with Hudler. Kostitsyn is barely a 20 goal guy. There just don't seem to be any good options outside of Semin unless we dip into the trade market, which will cost us plenty. I'd prefer to resign Semin just because he's the best option to provide that secondary scoring who we don't have to give up assets to acquire, and because the cap hit really wouldn't be that tough for the Caps to swallow. It's just the simplest solution.

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Old
06-27-2012, 09:32 PM
  #19
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Originally Posted by sonsofcain View Post
How about you adjust those numbers based on league-wide scoring rates and then look for a trend?
2011-12: 115 => 1.40 GPG
League average GPG/team: 2.735
Goals scored by top 6 F of Cup winner as % of average goals per team (%GF) = 51.1

2010-11: 135 => 1.65 GPG
League average GPG/team: 2.795
%GF = 59.0

2009-10: 146 => 1.78 GPG
League average GPG/team: 2.84
%GF = 62.7

2008-09: 159 => 1.94 GPG
League average GPG/team: 2.915
%GF = 66.6

2007-08: 160 => 1.95 GPG
League average GPG/team: 2.785
%GF = 70.0

2006-07: 171 => 2.09 GPG
League average GPG/team: 2.945
%GF = 70.97

2005-06: 190 => 2.32 GPG
League average GPG/team: 3.085
%GF = 75.2

So it seems those numbers tell us the same thing: scoring from top-6 forwards is becoming less and less important.

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06-27-2012, 09:33 PM
  #20
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Originally Posted by brs03 View Post
Scoring in general has been on the decline, and IINM more heavily so on special teams (where top 6 players would tend to be favored), so it's not *that* surprising. What's surprising to me is how dramatic and consistent it is.
Yeah, that's the aspect I was most surprised about. I figured there'd be one year with an outlier where the number increased.

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06-27-2012, 09:51 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NobodyBeatsTheWiz View Post
2011-12: 115 => 1.40 GPG
League average GPG/team: 2.735
Goals scored by top 6 F of Cup winner as % of average goals per team (%GF) = 51.1

2010-11: 135 => 1.65 GPG
League average GPG/team: 2.795
%GF = 59.0

2009-10: 146 => 1.78 GPG
League average GPG/team: 2.84
%GF = 62.7

2008-09: 159 => 1.94 GPG
League average GPG/team: 2.915
%GF = 66.6

2007-08: 160 => 1.95 GPG
League average GPG/team: 2.785
%GF = 70.0

2006-07: 171 => 2.09 GPG
League average GPG/team: 2.945
%GF = 70.97

2005-06: 190 => 2.32 GPG
League average GPG/team: 3.085
%GF = 75.2

So it seems those numbers tell us the same thing: scoring from top-6 forwards is becoming less and less important.
It's an interesting trend, because goals by forwards as a percentage of the total have largely stayed the same.

2010-11: 86.0%
2009-10: 85.5%
2008-09: 85.2%
2007-08: 85.4%
2006-07: 85.7%
2005-06: 85.1%

So it's been the bottom 6 picking up the slack, not defensemen. Which makes the Kings' success even odder, because their bottom 6 was pretty bad. I'm starting to think the Kings just owe everything to Quick and are a total outlier.

This article has some interesting stats. Basically, even strength scoring and PP% are going up, but overall scoring is going down because there's been a drastic decline in PIMs - dropping from 39,435 minutes in 05-06 to 30,140 in 10-11. The implication is that the PP is becoming less important. A quick look at the PP stats from last year seems to confirm that, since none of the conference finalists were better than 14th in PP%.

So I guess the takeaway is... Dennis Wideman is even more useless than he once was.

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06-27-2012, 10:08 PM
  #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NobodyBeatsTheWiz View Post
2011-12: 115 => 1.40 GPG
League average GPG/team: 2.735
Goals scored by top 6 F of Cup winner as % of average goals per team (%GF) = 51.1

2010-11: 135 => 1.65 GPG
League average GPG/team: 2.795
%GF = 59.0

2009-10: 146 => 1.78 GPG
League average GPG/team: 2.84
%GF = 62.7

2008-09: 159 => 1.94 GPG
League average GPG/team: 2.915
%GF = 66.6

2007-08: 160 => 1.95 GPG
League average GPG/team: 2.785
%GF = 70.0

2006-07: 171 => 2.09 GPG
League average GPG/team: 2.945
%GF = 70.97

2005-06: 190 => 2.32 GPG
League average GPG/team: 3.085
%GF = 75.2

So it seems those numbers tell us the same thing: scoring from top-6 forwards is becoming less and less important.
Interesting. I didn't mean to be a dick in suggesting you do that. It is an interesting trend. I wonder how much of it is due to the ongoing trend, apparently in the playoffs especially, towards trapping, shot-blocking, defense-first hockey. I guess your projected goal totals for those four guys are about right though. (Hopefully Ovechkin does hit 40.)

Edit: ^I knew penalties had decreased, but damn. I guess that pretty much explains it.


Last edited by Liberati0n*: 06-27-2012 at 10:14 PM.
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06-27-2012, 10:10 PM
  #23
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There just don't seem to be any good options outside of Semin unless we dip into the trade market, which will cost us plenty.
Boyes, Mueller, Wolski, Sykora, Samuelsson, Stempniak, Smyth and Sullivan are potential value options worth consideration. Two of them would give them options for lineups based on production and opportunity for the player(s). If that doesn't work then address it at the trade deadline. They still don't have enough quality organizational depth to be in a position to trade for a 30-40 goal guy.
Quote:
I'd prefer to resign Semin just because he's the best option to provide that secondary scoring who we don't have to give up assets to acquire, and because the cap hit really wouldn't be that tough for the Caps to swallow. It's just the simplest solution.
Lavoie tends to be pretty credible generally and said that McPhee told him that Semin wants 6/7 years at $7M. Now maybe that's GMGM exaggerating and maybe Gandler is just shooting for the moon. It's a good year to do so and then see what actually is forthcoming. The combination of term and cap hit is certainly very likely to be burdensome at this point and you'd have to think that some other team is far more likely to take that plunge.

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06-27-2012, 10:22 PM
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I'd like to see the caps pick up Peter Mueller, maybe Boyes if he's not looking for a huge chunk of cash.

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06-27-2012, 10:23 PM
  #25
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First off all, Carter was a deadline acquisition, so it doesn't really put any bearing on what we enter the regular season with. Secondly, Laich on the wing, with Ribeiro at center, should be a twenty goal scorer again which, as NBTW pointed out, is basically as good as the Kings top two regular season wingers were.
Hate to break it to you, but we don't have Jonathan Quick or the Kings' defense.

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