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Advanced stats say Sabres should consider dealing Ennis

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Old
06-28-2012, 12:05 PM
  #1
joshjull
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Advanced stats say Sabres should consider dealing Ennis

http://wgr550.com/pages/13577716.php...entId=10939186


Quote:
Ennis's statistics suggest he might be the No. 1 center the Sabres have been sorely missing. But the advanced statistics say something else.

In 2010-11, the Sabres' forward had a shooting percentage of 9.5, a season in which he scored 20 goals and added 29 assists. In 2011-12, Ennis finished with an unsustainable 18.3 shooting percentage.
Quote:
Some other factors playing into Ennis's chances to regress are his Quality of Competition statistics. Last year, the only centers on the Sabres that faced easier competition were Luke Adam and Cody McCormick. If he is the Sabres' No. 1 next year, he will undoubtedly see the league's best on the other side of the ice. (the QoC statistic is based on the puck possession numbers for opponents that were on the ice at the same time)
Quote:
There's another factor that played into Ennis' success was the explosion of forward Marcus Foligno. Foligno scored 13 points in 14 games in 2011-12. But if you thought Ennis' production was unsustainable, Foligno's is even more so. His shooting percentage was 26.1 percent, about 16 percent over league average and more than twice the league's best scorers. Can Foligno continue to score? Absolutely. Can he continue his pace from last year? Probably not.
Quote:
The top 10 teams in the NHL in puck possession made the playoffs. The advanced stats say that when Ennis was on the ice, the opposing team had the puck much more than the Sabres. In fact, Ennis ranked 11th amongst forwards on the team in Corsi On, a statistic that measures possession when a player is on the ice.

I'm impressed that WGR has a staffer (Matt Coller) that can put together an article like this.


These are things many of us already knew. He's pretty much arguing Ennis' value is pretty high right now so trading him would net a good return. I don't think he is saying we shoudl trade him but consider it. At least thats my take.

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06-28-2012, 12:09 PM
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Rubbish

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06-28-2012, 12:11 PM
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joshjull
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Originally Posted by stokes84 View Post
Rubbish
Actually they're facts.

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06-28-2012, 12:13 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
Actually they're facts.
What was his quality of competition his rookie year?

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06-28-2012, 12:15 PM
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I read this article earlier. We've covered all its points at one time or another but it'll be worthwhile to have it all in a focused thread, considering that packaging Ennis for Ryan / etc has been debated in various places.

I disagree with the premise of trading him for the kinds of return we've been discussing, but I don't disagree that the numbers should caution people's expectations for next season.


Quote:
Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
Actually they're facts.
Well, facts plus conjecture and analysis. The notion that his trade value is currently inflated is obviously conjecture and speculation. We have no way of knowing what his market value is much less what his "real" value will prove to be.

And quality of competition serves as an important consideration in analysis but it doesn't alone discredit or minimize performance, for example, regardless of external factors such as who they were playing against, it is clear Ennis elevated the play/production of Stafford and Foligno.

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06-28-2012, 12:16 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
Actually they're facts.
Trading away our best offensive player before he even signs his second pro contract is about the worst way to build a winner.

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06-28-2012, 12:18 PM
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He also didnt get a point in his first ten games and we can expect better than that, I dont think anyones expecting him to score 40 goals next year, 25g/35a is possible though I think

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06-28-2012, 12:18 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sabresarescarygood View Post
what was his quality of competition his rookie year?
-0.008

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06-28-2012, 12:19 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stokes84 View Post
Trading away our best offensive player before he even signs his second pro contract is about the worst way to build a winner.
Thomas Vanek is on his second pro contract.

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06-28-2012, 12:21 PM
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Layne Staley
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
Actually they're facts.
At some point these micro analyzing stats need to stop being used over real production , goals, assists, points.

These are all fine and dandy but who is to say that when Ennis gets tougher minutes next season that he won't produce more? Is there a stat that predicts that? I'm sorry, Ennis scored 34 points in 48 games. He was the former ahl Roty. He led our team in playoff scoring against Boston. I don't think Ennis' accomplishments should be discredited due to stats that are controlled by some web site that is not affiliated with the NHL.

Using this logic, what's better a guy scoring 70 points playing the 12th "hardest" minutes or a guy who scores 40 points but against the "toughest" competition? Who is to say the guy who scores 40 points playing the toughest competition would be able to score 70 then playing the weakest? There is no way to tell and that's why these subjective stats don't tell you more then the real stats, goals + assists.

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06-28-2012, 12:21 PM
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They're all valid points, but it doesn't necessarily mean we'd be better off trading him because of it. It's pretty unrealistic to think Ennis or his line are going to put up the kind of numbers they were at the end of last season on any kind of consistent basis. Still, unless there's an offer on the table for a very established, high end player, dealing Ennis shouldn't be high up on the priority list.

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06-28-2012, 12:21 PM
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Also, where were advanced statistics articles like this when Hecht was playing? Maybe the chuckleheads in their comments section wouldn't have frothed at the mouth about him so much.

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06-28-2012, 12:22 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob Paxon View Post
Thomas Vanek is on his second pro contract.
I think what he means to say is to trade one of our best offensive weapons is not a good idea. And he is one of our best offensive weapons.

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06-28-2012, 12:23 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stokes84 View Post
Trading away our best offensive player before he even signs his second pro contract is about the worst way to build a winner.
I wouldn't make that claim if I were you. I said the same thing in another thread and it was heavily contested. Apparently there are some on this board who only trust in years of statistical production as a means to analyze players.

Now you and I can watch the entire Sabres team play all of 2011-12, and clearly see with our own eyes that Ennis was by far (with the exception of pommer at times) our most noticable and creative offensive player. Others only look at an internet page saying he has 15G and 19A. I even extrapolated the stats over an 82 game season to give a more accurate description. They said: "You can't do that".

I just did.

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06-28-2012, 12:25 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob Paxon View Post
I read this article earlier. We've covered all its points at one time or another but it'll be worthwhile to have it all in a focused thread, considering that packaging Ennis for Ryan / etc has been debated in various places.

I disagree with the premise of trading him for the kinds of return we've been discussing, but I don't disagree that the numbers should caution people's expectations for next season.




Well, facts plus conjecture and analysis. The notion that his trade value right is currently inflated is obviously conjecture and speculation. We have no way of knowing what his market value is much less what his "real" value will prove to be.

And quality of competition serves as an important consideration in analysis but it doesn't alone discredit or minimize performance, for example, regardless of external factors such as who they were playing against, it is clear Ennis elevated the play/production of Stafford and Foligno.
Facts were used to make the arguement was what I meant.


Look I'm not suggesting he should get traded. But this over the top hyping he gets from some needs to be tempered by reality. He did what he did playing lesser competition.

When teams face us they put their top defensive guys out against Roy's line. Chara was Roy's most frequently faced opponent this year and his top ten is litered with the better defensive dmen in our division and conference.

When Ennis puts up numbers against those guys. Then we can declare him our best offensive player. Until then he is a very talented youngster with potential as is Hodgson. Poster seem to forget the relative success of that 3 line setup was due to Roy at the head of the class. His line made life easier for the other two.


Last edited by joshjull: 06-28-2012 at 12:31 PM.
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Old
06-28-2012, 12:26 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GodHatesBuffalo View Post
I wouldn't make that claim if I were you. I said the same thing in another thread and it was heavily contested. Apparently there are some on this board who only trust in years of statistical production as a means to analyze players.

Now you and I can watch the entire Sabres team play all of 2011-12, and clearly see with our own eyes that Ennis was by far (with the exception of pommer at times) our most noticable and creative offensive player. Others only look at an internet page saying he has 15G and 19A. I even extrapolated the stats over an 82 game season to give a more accurate description. They said: "You can't do that".

I just did.
This was over the course of 30 games, did you see Ennis during his first 10-20? He looked like our worst. That said, I think he is our best offensive player. Vanek is our best sniper, and Poms puts up points and is consistent, but nobody is as explosive or dynamic as Ennis is.

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06-28-2012, 12:29 PM
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So we should trade Ennis because other GMs wouldn't look into these same stats?

Nice.

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06-28-2012, 12:33 PM
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What worries me most about Ennis is he weighs 157 lbs.

There are small guys that make it in the NHL... Briere, St. Louis... But they have 20-25 lbs on Ennis.

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06-28-2012, 12:35 PM
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Gotta love these off-season articles.

Trade everyone!!!!!

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06-28-2012, 12:35 PM
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Originally Posted by Clock View Post
So we should trade Ennis because other GMs wouldn't look into these same stats?

Nice.
I wouldn't be so dismissive considering some of the recent moves by a few GMs. Howson and Feaster come to mind.

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06-28-2012, 12:35 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kishire View Post
This was over the course of 30 games, did you see Ennis during his first 10-20? He looked like our worst. That said, I think he is our best offensive player. Vanek is our best sniper, and Poms puts up points and is consistent, but nobody is as explosive or dynamic as Ennis is.
Honestly in watching how he stated the season, I think Ennis was great. He had no points to show for it, but for example I think his first 5-7 games he really opened up a lot. He was flying out there. His worst stretch of hockey was from like game 7-injury. Maybe he got discouraged from his lack of production. Only Ennis knows the answers to that.

Yeah, overall, he was great for the majority of the year.

I've questioned to myself if his great play can be largely contributed to him being in a contract year. I'm sure it plays a factor. However, the fact that he was amazing in the Boston series, and clutch in game 5/6 of the Flyers series, tells me that this kid wants to be somebody in the NHL. In other words, he's not just here to collect the biggest paycheck he can, and drift into obscurity when the competition gets hard. These indicators point, at least to me, to a player who wants to be a consistent factor in the league for years to come.

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06-28-2012, 12:36 PM
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Holy over-analyzation batman.

Using the "explosion" of Foligno is a possible explanation of Ennis' product is a joke. Ennis carried that line, Foligno and Stafford were just smart enough to get to the net and finish what Ennis started.

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06-28-2012, 12:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GodHatesBuffalo View Post
I wouldn't make that claim if I were you. I said the same thing in another thread and it was heavily contested. Apparently there are some on this board who only trust in years of statistical production as a means to analyze players.

Now you and I can watch the entire Sabres team play all of 2011-12, and clearly see with our own eyes that Ennis was by far (with the exception of pommer at times) our most noticable and creative offensive player. Others only look at an internet page saying he has 15G and 19A. I even extrapolated the stats over an 82 game season to give a more accurate description. They said: "You can't do that".

I just did.
You only say this because Vanek was hot at the beginning of the year and Ennis was hot at the end of the year. Vanek's hot streak was far more impressive because it was against top competition every shift, nevermind that he was centered by Luke Adam.

Pominville was consistent from start to finish and, yes, should be considered a better offensive player than Ennis because he is more reliable and performs against top competition consistently. I do think Ennis will shortly prove himself a better offensive player than Pominville but he's not there yet.

Vanek is underrated here.

Quote:
Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
Look I'm not suggesting he should get traded. But this over the top hyping he gets from some needs to be tempered by reality. He did what he did playing lesser competition.

When teams face us they put their top defensive guys out against Roy's line. Chara was Roy's most frequently faced opponent this year and his top ten is litered with the better defensive dmen in our division and conference.

When Ennis puts up numbers against those guys. Then we can declare him our best offensive player. Until then he is a very talented youngster with potential as is Hodgson. Poster seem to forget the relative success of that 3 line setup was due to Roy at the head of the class. His line made life easier for the other two.
I'm with you on every point and my comments were directed at the article, I just used your statement as a gateway.

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06-28-2012, 12:40 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Karate Johnson View Post
What worries me most about Ennis is he weighs 157 lbs.

There are small guys that make it in the NHL... Briere, St. Louis... But they have 20-25 lbs on Ennis.
I doubt that's accurate at this point. He'll always be small, but he won't stay that small. I'd guess he's more around 170 or so at this point.

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06-28-2012, 12:40 PM
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All these QoC indicate more to ME is the use of coaching strategy more than a player's skill. Why would a coach not take advantage of a situtation that might help the team score a goal or defend a goal? If Ruff thinks that Ennis will possibley net him a goal more than say Gaustad in the offensive zone then why does it have to be a strike against a player? Same thing in the defensive zone. If Ruff feels that Gaustad has a better chance of winning a faceoff or stopping a PP than say Ennis, how does that make Ennis look incapable of playing any type of defense.

Not everybody is a Superb two-way Player. There's probably 5-10 guys in the whole league that can play elite two way play.

When Ennis is NOT in the lineup, IMO, this team doesn't look dangerous at all. When he is out there, he makes things happen. Now that he found linemates that he can use, people want to try and prove that all his goals, assists mean nothing because they are against 2nd and 3rd tier defensemen. He probably has the best hands of the team if not the best.

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