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Report: Isles offered all picks to Jackets for No. 2 [Per NHL.com]

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Old
06-28-2012, 08:47 AM
  #176
CREW99AW
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Beesfan View Post
Ryan Murray is a total package defenseman: great skater; acceptable size; hockey sense; skill; and leadership. He has been a highly rated player for 3-4 years now.

The NYIslanders were essentially offering a 1st, 2nd & 3rd rounder. Everything after that is fodder.

Howsen made the right call holding it.

A better offer would have been Nino Niederreiter , 4th overall, 2nd rounder.
As an Isles fan,I dislike this one even more then Snow's 7 for 1 offer.

Fans on message boards have given up on Nino.The NYI haven't.

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Old
06-28-2012, 08:58 AM
  #177
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Originally Posted by MillerFan1 View Post
If I'm Howson I openly welcome a kid who had 1 goal and was a -29 last season. What a hell of a deal that would have been.





Jumbo Joe had 3 goals his first full season and im guessing his linemates werent jay pandawful and marty reasoner...good thing boston didnt trade him, eh

btw i do realize the B's won the cup...but Joe Thornton has had one helluva career.

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06-28-2012, 09:14 AM
  #178
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I can't believe that you think Howson was right to reject the offer. Having that many more picks are assets. These assets can be used for producing quality players or trading for quality players. Howson is an idiot.

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06-28-2012, 09:26 AM
  #179
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How many prospects can a team have in their sustem? whats the limit? And when you recieve 14 new, you got to push out 14 others?

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06-28-2012, 09:34 AM
  #180
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Didn't read through all the posts, but Elliotte Friedman over at CBC did a breakdown of the trade offer, and why it was a smart move by both GMs (Snow to offer it, Howson to decline it).

I'll paraphrase, but let's assume your scouts feel there is a 100% chance for Murray to fill-out a top-4 role on the blue-line (with a ceiling of #1 Franchise D). Now the Islanders' picks were all blueliners, so let's assume the goal of those picks was to get a similar guy.

Now, look at Reinhart. Let's give him 75% to make the NHL. Let's give the next pick, Ville Pokka, 18%; and the next pick, Adam Pelech, 4%; and the next pick, Loic Leduc, 1%; and the next, Doyle Somerby 0.75%, and the next, Jesse Graham, 0.5%, and finally the last guy, Jake Bischoff, gets 0.25%.

You've got a 99.5% chance of getting a guy that will be hitting Ryan Murray's potential.

Let's remember, this was a weak draft. There may have been great depth in the draft, as a lot of teams felt that the quality of the picks didn't drop off until around 50th OA, but there was very limited star power and nobody was a lock for franchise player (maybes on Murray, Yakupov, Galchenyuk, Forsberg, Grigorenko and Rielly).

So Snow's offer made sense, because statistically speaking, the odds were much better that he would end up with the best player in the deal. Likewise, Howson wouldn't have the same odds at a star and potential franchise player.

However, it's interesting because, while Howson would have had a smaller percentage chance at ONE star player, he would've had six additional players with it, and there's a chance that means 2 or more stars (although extremely unlikely).

One thing Friedman mentioned that struck a cord with me, is that this deal shows Snow to have a certain lack of faith in his scouting staff. Same for Howson.

If either guy thought they had a great scouting team, they would've evaluated that percentage chance a little higher.

Can't imagine a team like Montreal or Toronto would've turned down an offer like that.

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06-28-2012, 09:37 AM
  #181
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cbj21 View Post
How many prospects can a team have in their sustem? whats the limit? And when you recieve 14 new, you got to push out 14 others?
You can have a max of 50 contracts in the organization. NHL, AHL, OHL, etc.

Every year, teams don't re-sign lots of guys, and it's easy to unload contracts too.

Bum prospect A + Bum prospect B for 7th round pick. Boom done. Happens all the time.

Or a guy with low potential is included as packing foam in a trade.

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06-28-2012, 09:37 AM
  #182
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kadri43 View Post
I can't believe that you think Howson was right to reject the offer. Having that many more picks are assets. These assets can be used for producing quality players or trading for quality players. Howson is an idiot.
Except not many GM's were looking for trades this draft. It was extremely quiet.

Quality players are almost never produced after the 3rd round. Beyond, the picks are almost worthless especially to Columbus.

Finally, I think Howson and Snow's opinions of Murray is that he is worth more than Reinhart + those picks. They obviously do not subscribe to the theory that the difference between the two players is minimal.

Quote:
Originally Posted by CREW99AW View Post
As an Isles fan,I dislike this one even more then Snow's 7 for 1 offer.

Fans on message boards have given up on Nino.The NYI haven't.
That example was used to put the 7 for 1 trade in perspective. It sounds like a lot, but isn't when compared to 1st + a player which is a much more common trade.

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06-28-2012, 10:26 AM
  #183
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Quote:
Originally Posted by indigobuffalo View Post

One thing Friedman mentioned that struck a cord with me, is that this deal shows Snow to have a certain lack of faith in his scouting staff. Same for Howson.

If either guy thought they had a great scouting team, they would've evaluated that percentage chance a little higher.

.
This was the part of Friedman's article, he lost me on.

If he'd done some homework on the isles 4 previous drafts,he'd have realized why losing 6 picks,in a shallow draft, was a gamble Snow was willing to make.

predraft:
28 yr old Moulson-21 yr old Tavares-24 yr old Okposo
25 yr old Grabner-28 yr old Nielsen-19 yr old Nino
22 yr old Bailey-22 yr old Cizikas-23 yr old Petrov
23 yr old Ulsstrom-19 yr old Strome-23 yr old Martin
20 yr old Kabanov-20 yr old B. Nelson
20 yr old Persson-19 yr old Sundstrom
21 yr old Anders Lee- 19 yr old Theoret


25 yr old MacDonald-21 yr old Hamonic
22 yr old Donovan-21 yr old De Haan
23 yr old Katic-22 yr old Ness
19 yr old MayField-18 yr old Pedan
20 yr old Kitchon-19 yr old Russo

22 yr old Poulin
22 yr old Nilson
23 yr old Koskinen

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06-28-2012, 11:10 AM
  #184
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Don't think its really fair to criticize Howson (or Snow) to be honest. If your scout think Murray is much better than anything you get at 4 then you have to take it. Would I like the Kings to have traded Doughty (2nd overall) for Pietrangelo and the rest of Stl. picks? Probably not from Kings prospective

And there are tons of example of this in many drafts where 2nd overall is better than 4th overall + rest of draft choices of a team.

As for Murray, teams seem to be very high on him. Edmonton, if not for Yakupov-hype machine, might have drafted him. Columbus seems to have like him the best in this draft. While the Islanders, reportedly, are will to offer all the picks for him. So that's 3 professional scouting teams that really are in love with him. Yet we all say that him and Reinhart might not be that much of a different?

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06-28-2012, 11:23 AM
  #185
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kingler View Post
Don't think its really fair to criticize Howson (or Snow) to be honest. If your scout think Murray is much better than anything you get at 4 then you have to take it. Would I like the Kings to have traded Doughty (2nd overall) for Pietrangelo and the rest of Stl. picks? Probably not from Kings prospective

And there are tons of example of this in many drafts where 2nd overall is better than 4th overall + rest of draft choices of a team.

As for Murray, teams seem to be very high on him. Edmonton, if not for Yakupov-hype machine, might have drafted him. Columbus seems to have like him the best in this draft. While the Islanders, reportedly, are will to offer all the picks for him. So that's 3 professional scouting teams that really are in love with him. Yet we all say that him and Reinhart might not be that much of a different?
Isles beat writer Staples pointed out that Murray was clearly the Isles choice and that they did not want to wait 2-3 yrs for the pick to develop.

Reinhart may have had more appeal, if he was closer to nhl ready coming right out of the draft.

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Old
06-28-2012, 11:58 AM
  #186
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The approximate odds of the #4 overall overtaking the #2 overall, per the examples Elliotte Friedman gathered over 19 drafts (1990-2008), are about one in six or so. Five times out of six, the #2 overall has the better NHL career.

But we could have doubled our chances of getting a steal in the later rounds! So going by the info Friedman gathered on that, what does that make our chances out to be? Looks like the odds would go from about one in 20 to one in ten.

This is a good illustration of why is why gambling is a very profitable industry.

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06-28-2012, 01:05 PM
  #187
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Originally Posted by OccupySheen View Post
and it should be no surprise why these are 2 of the worst run teams in the league. Howson is the bigger idiot, his team has countless holes to fill
This isn't the NFL. Columbus wouldve gotten maybe 2-3 extra role players..

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Old
06-28-2012, 01:31 PM
  #188
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Cant believe ppl are still talking about this...

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