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Advanced stats say Sabres should consider dealing Ennis

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Old
06-28-2012, 02:32 PM
  #76
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Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
He plays about 50% of his 5 on 5 shifts with Getzlaf. I used one of those evil advanced stats sites for the info.
Imagine if he played with Getzlaf 100% of the time. He'd score 60 goals!! You know, because Ryan only benefits from playing with Getzlaf, and not vice versa.

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06-28-2012, 02:34 PM
  #77
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Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
He's played about 50% of his 5 on 5 shifts with Getzlaf over the last 4 years. I used one of those evil advanced stats sites for the info.
Which, as I said yesterday, means that 50% of the team he was getting the Ennis treatment, while 50% he was playing with elite linemates.

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06-28-2012, 02:38 PM
  #78
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Originally Posted by stokes84 View Post
Ennis is younger, cheaper and had a higher ppg this season, which means he's had a higher ppg every season except for his rookie season. He plays a more critical position. He makes his teammates better. Do you think Ryan is scoring 30 goals per year with Roy or Connolly as his center? No. He plays with Getzlaf, who like Ennis, makes everyone better.
What?

Ennis pp82gp:
09-10 - 74
10-11 - 49
11-12 - 58
Career - 54

Ryan pp82gp:
07-08 - 36
08-09 - 73
09-10 - 65
10-11 - 71
11-12 - 57
Career - 64

They were pretty much equal last year, Ryan had a sizable edge the previous year, and Ryan has a sizable lead in the career average.

Ryan also has better size, is more physical, is more durable, and is the better goal scorer.

If Tyler Ennis regresses back to his 2010-11 numbers, he's not untouchable.

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06-28-2012, 02:38 PM
  #79
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Originally Posted by stokes84 View Post
Which, as I said yesterday, means that 50% of the team he was getting the Ennis treatment, while 50% he was playing with elite linemates.
Or, alternatively, 50% of the time he was playing with turd linemates, and the other 50% he was playing against top pairings. Anyways, your caveman analysis leaves no room to consider that Anaheim got to pick the matchups in 50% of their games, so Ryan very well could've been put out against top pairings on nights he wasn't playing with Perry and Getzlaf so that P&G could have easier matchups.

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06-28-2012, 02:39 PM
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Originally Posted by Jim Bob View Post
What?

Ennis pp82gp:
09-10 - 74
10-11 - 49
11-12 - 58
Career - 54

Ryan pp82gp:
07-08 - 36
08-09 - 73
09-10 - 65
10-11 - 71
11-12 - 57
Career - 64

They were pretty much equal last year, Ryan had a sizable edge the previous year, and Ryan has a sizable lead in the career average.

Ryan also has better size, is more physical, is more durable, and is the better goal scorer.

If Tyler Ennis regresses back to his 2010-11 numbers, he's not untouchable.
Even with his '11-'12 numbers he's not untouchable. In no parallel universe is a 58-point undersized player untouchable.

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06-28-2012, 02:42 PM
  #81
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Originally Posted by Zip15 View Post
Even with his '11-'12 numbers he's not untouchable. In no parallel universe is a 58-point undersized player untouchable.
He's not untouchable to me. I was trying to say that a lot of people that think he's untouchable today probably won't have that same opinion 12 months from now if he has another season like he did offensively two years ago.

They expect him to pick up where he left off at the tail end of last year.

That could happen. Or, it might not.

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06-28-2012, 02:46 PM
  #82
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jim Bob View Post
He's not untouchable to me. I was trying to say that a lot of people that think he's untouchable today probably won't have that same opinion 12 months from now if he has another season like he did offensively two years ago.

They expect him to pick up where he left off at the tail end of last year.

That could happen. Or, it might not.
It's akin to the Drew Stafford talk from five years ago. He had a torrid final 20-odd games. Past success does not guarantee future performance and all that...

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06-28-2012, 02:47 PM
  #83
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We need a poll... For historical purposes

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06-28-2012, 02:49 PM
  #84
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As I posted in a different thread, expecting this to be Ennis' peak while praising Ryan's development and potential for future development is a case of cognitive dissonance.

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06-28-2012, 02:50 PM
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Originally Posted by Chainshot View Post
Going back a way, they been used to support Hecht as a very good defensive player in previous seasons (his QoC and Corsi numbers are excellent) but similar to the Ennis conversation, the points were simply ignored or shouted over. Ennis did some great things in the last quarter of the season. The context -- who he did them against, what was anomolous about it -- is important, particularly when trying to get a picture of how this team is built and what they may do in the near future.

There isn't a lot of difference between the opinion that Ennis is fabulous (or formerly that Hecht sucks) and being shown measurable perimeters of why those opinions may need tempering.
Thats the key point thats lost on some. Pointing out the context of Ennis' production is not belittling it.

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06-28-2012, 02:51 PM
  #86
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There still seems to be a failure by the "zomh ennis god" camp to recognize that the advanced stats are not used to discount ennis' scoring stats, advanced stats simply bring finer detail, context, and clarity to your basic stats.

Openly stating that advanced stats mean nothing to you is an impressive act of open ignorance

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06-28-2012, 02:52 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fatal System Ehrhoff View Post
As I posted in a different thread, expecting this to be Ennis' peak while praising Ryan's development and potential for future development is a case of cognitive dissonance.
Who said this was ennis' peak?

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06-28-2012, 02:54 PM
  #88
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Originally Posted by stokes84 View Post
Which, as I said yesterday, means that 50% of the team he was getting the Ennis treatment, while 50% he was playing with elite linemates.
My hunch would be that 50% of the time, Ryan was playing against mid-pairings/2-way lines (as opposed to definite checking lines) as he would have been on the second line. I wouldn't go so far as to call it the Ennis treatment...

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06-28-2012, 02:54 PM
  #89
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Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
Thats the key point thats lost on some. Pointing out the context of Ennis' production is not belittling it.
It's such a simple and logical concept that the detractors are forced to attack advanced stats or openly ignore them all together.

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06-28-2012, 02:56 PM
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Originally Posted by Jame View Post
Who said this was ennis' peak?
It's somewhat implicit in wanting to move X+ for Y that one doesn't believe X will ever be Y's equal. The current difference from X and Y isn't that great, so in turn I must assume that one must believe X will not develop at any great level.

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06-28-2012, 02:59 PM
  #91
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Originally Posted by Fatal System Ehrhoff View Post
It's somewhat implicit in wanting to move X+ for Y that one doesn't believe X will ever be Y's equal. The current difference from X and Y isn't that great, so in turn I must assume that one must believe X will not develop at any great level.
I dispute your presumptions. In this case of Ennis/Ryan, I simply believe that Ryan can impact the game in more ways than Ennis, and the skillset Ryan brings is translates better during the postseason--I say that knowing full well everyone's going to go crazy with the Ennis/Briere comparisons.

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06-28-2012, 03:01 PM
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I dispute your presumptions. In this case of Ennis/Ryan, I simply believe that Ryan can impact the game in more ways than Ennis, and the skillset Ryan brings is translates better during the postseason--I say that knowing full well everyone's going to go crazy with the Ennis/Briere comparisons.
You believe Y>X in this case. I don't see how that changes my point, honestly. If X becomes Y's equal, than he effects the game at the same level if not in the same way, per se.

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06-28-2012, 03:01 PM
  #93
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Originally Posted by Fatal System Ehrhoff View Post
It's somewhat implicit in wanting to move X+ for Y that one doesn't believe X will ever be Y's equal. The current difference from X and Y isn't that great, so in turn I must assume that one must believe X will not develop at any great level.
Yes it is and thats where your logic falls down.

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06-28-2012, 03:02 PM
  #94
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fatal System Ehrhoff View Post
It's somewhat implicit in wanting to move X+ for Y that one doesn't believe X will ever be Y's equal. The current difference from X and Y isn't that great, so in turn I must assume that one must believe X will not develop at any great level.
Really? That's an interesting position. You think the curet difference is close? You sire you aren't applying "projection" to ennis to get close without projecting Ryan?

I don't see how "currently" they are close without looking at potential/projection in ennis case

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06-28-2012, 03:03 PM
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Originally Posted by Fatal System Ehrhoff View Post
It's somewhat implicit in wanting to move X+ for Y that one doesn't believe X will ever be Y's equal. The current difference from X and Y isn't that great, so in turn one must assume that one must believe X will not develop at any great level.
I don't think that's necessarily true at all, because you also have to factor in short-term vs long-term.

I'll use a classic example: Joe Nieuwendyk traded for Jarome Iginla and Corey Millen. It's not that one believes Iginla would not ever be Nieuwendyk's equal (which looking back, I'd probably argue Iginla has surpassed Nieuwendyk), it's that Dallas was better in the short term which is why they made that deal.

Ennis and Ryan is different in that Ryan is much younger, but a similar argument can be made that Ryan helps us more sooner than Ennis will, assuming both continue to develop as expected. The value is what it is though because Ryan is a more established NHL player, there's no arguing that, and Anaheim is also under no compulsion to trade him (sure, it could become a huge distraction, but they could keep him if they wanted to), meaning you'd have to overpay some to get him out. Especially with multiple suitors and needing to beat out other offers.

Plus, it also depends on how highly Anaheim would want Ennis. Hodgson for Kassian looks like a steal, but Gillis really wanted Kassian--he held more value as far as Gillis was concerned, hence why Buffalo didn't need to add anything.

Trade values are an inexact science as each side assign different preferences and values to different players.

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06-28-2012, 03:03 PM
  #96
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Yes it is and thats where your logic falls down.
Agreed

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06-28-2012, 03:03 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stokes84 View Post
Ennis is younger, cheaper and had a higher ppg this season, which means he's had a higher ppg every season except for his rookie season. He plays a more critical position. He makes his teammates better. Do you think Ryan is scoring 30 goals per year with Roy or Connolly as his center? No. He plays with Getzlaf, who like Ennis, makes everyone better.
3rd line center / 2nd/3rd line winger (Ennis) is not a more critical position than heavily leaned-on 1st line winger (Ryan).

Ennis' career PPG (0.66) is considerably lower than Ryans (0.78). Last seasons was statistically insignificantly better: 0.71 over a mere 48 games vs 0.70 over 82. Guess which is better? And that was the lowest in Ryan's career since his rookie season.

This is a horrible argument.

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06-28-2012, 03:04 PM
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Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
Yes it is and thats where your logic falls down.
In what capacity? Ryan's producing offense at the same level he did when he was 22 and that's hardly higher than where Ennis is at 22. If you feel the other factors of his game set him apart at that level than you must feel Ennis could not develop those in 2.5 years, correct?

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06-28-2012, 03:05 PM
  #99
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Keep ignoring those facts
He's probobly the most naturally skilled player on the team. There's no questions about his work ethic or compete level. His teammates absolutely love him.

I don't trade a guy like that because he had some good luck down the stretch. His torred stretch isnt sustainable but he can definitely improve on his first half to last season.

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06-28-2012, 03:08 PM
  #100
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I'm surprised the "raw points" crowd is using PTs per game as an argument. You'd think they'd argue total points ( like this same crowd did in the staal debates... Completely ignoring PTs per game in favor of the "he never scored x amount of points.)

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