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Advanced stats say Sabres should consider dealing Ennis

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Old
06-28-2012, 08:14 PM
  #201
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Karate Johnson View Post
It's not about TOI, it's about the matchups.
and zone starts

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06-28-2012, 08:16 PM
  #202
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Originally Posted by ColonelForbin View Post
I'll have to go back and look more into the stats, but I just spot checked one random game towards the end of the season. The April 3rd game vs. Toronto. This is admittedly one game, I'm curious to see others.

TOI:
Ennis: 22:23 total, ES: 18:10
Hodgson: 17:49 total, ES: 13:09

Edit:
Then the next game vs. Philly on April 5th, the game they were eliminated:

Ennis: 19:25 total, 17:36 ES
Hodgson: 17:18 total, 14:32 ES
Why are you being so pigheaded? I'm talking about when this 3 line setup was put together and how it was viewed by opponents. So you counter with stats from their last few games together?

In the 11gms prior to the one you reference, Hodgson had averaged 17:30 a night and Ennis 16:30. Roy's line did the heavy lifting with Roy and Pommer getting about 21mins a night.

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06-28-2012, 08:22 PM
  #203
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I'm not saying matchups and zone starts aren't important, but it seems like people are going out of their way to miss the obvious.

Other teams scout their opponents. There's no way they were oblivious to the run that line was on. And when you're playing 22 minutes, there's no way you're not seeing other teams top D pairs and checking lines.

And since when do more offensive zone starts drop you down the depth chart? Was Staal higher on the depth chart than Malkin in Pittsburgh?

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06-28-2012, 08:23 PM
  #204
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
Why are you being so pigheaded? I'm talking about when this 3 line setup was put together and how it was viewed by opponents. So you counter with stats from their last few games together?

In the 11gms prior to the one you reference, Hodgson had averaged 17:30 a night and Ennis 16:30. Roy's line did the heavy lifting with Roy and Pommer getting about 21mins a night.
How is it being pigheaded? You made a huge claim about where Ennis stood on the depth chart to bolster your argument and you just want people to accept it? It's highly debatable.

Edit: I'm not trying to be intentionally contradictory for no reason, but your claim really doesn't make sense to me. If you said Roy, Ennis, and Hodgson were 2a/2b/2c or whatever, fine. But to single him out as the one of the three that gets the classification of third line center in a thread you created suggesting they should consider trading him just seems like pushing an agenda. Give the guy a little credit.


Last edited by ColonelForbin: 06-28-2012 at 08:37 PM.
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06-28-2012, 08:37 PM
  #205
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ColonelForbin View Post
How is it being pigheaded? You made a huge claim about where Ennis stood on the depth chart to bolster your argument and you just want people to accept it? It's highly debatable.
Its not a huge claim at all. But you're too pigheaded to address what I post. When they were FIRST put together they were the 3rd line. Or do you actually think teams were worried about a AHL callup (Foligno) and 2nd year player struggling to produce (7g 15pts in 34gms to that point) and Stafford (13g 20a 33pts in 66gms). You actually think that line is going to be the focus of other teams? Please explain why?

I love how you magically came upon a game near the end of their run after Hodgson averaged more ice time in the 11 games before that. Its not a coincidence you choose the game you did. It was to ignore the point I made and try and argue around it.


Last edited by joshjull: 06-28-2012 at 08:42 PM.
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06-28-2012, 08:45 PM
  #206
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
Its not ahuge claim at all. But you're too pigheaded to address what I post. When they were FIRST put together they were the 3rd line. Or do you actually think teams were worried about a AHL callup (Foligno) and 2nd year player struggling to produce (7g 15pts in 34gms to that point and Stafford (13g 20a 33pts in 66gms). You actuallt think that line is going to be the focus of other teams? Please explain why?

Btw nothing you've posted is addressing the point that at the time they were put together they were 3rd on the depth chart. To me thats pigheaded. Or the fact that Hodgson averaged more ice time in the 11 games before that. Its not a coincidence you choose the game you did. It was to ignore the point I made and try and argue around it.
I'm not ignoring the points you're making, I just think you made a gigantic leap from what you laid out to calling him the third line center over that whole bunch of games. Maybe the first 3 or 4 games I could buy that, but what about the next 10? That line was on fire and Vanek was ice cold.

I don't know how to look up what D pairs were matched up against what lines. I just find it very hard to believe that line got the lowest quality of competition over a lot of that stretch. That's all I'm saying.

I think it's a stretch to call him the third line center beyond the first three or four games of that streak.

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06-28-2012, 08:57 PM
  #207
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Originally Posted by ColonelForbin View Post
I'm not ignoring the points you're making, I just think you made a gigantic leap from what you laid out to calling him the third line center over that whole bunch of games. Maybe the first 3 or 4 games I could buy that, but what about the next 10? That line was on fire and Vanek was ice cold.

I don't know how to look up what D pairs were matched up against what lines. I just find it very hard to believe that line got the lowest quality of competition over a lot of that stretch. That's all I'm saying.
Fair enough and I agree they didn't always face the weakest defenders during that entire stretch.

By the end it was more of a 2a/2b situation with the Roy line as the top line.

Quote:
I think it's a stretch to call him the third line center beyond the first three or four games of that streak.
In their first 4gms together Ennis had 5g 3a 8pts

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06-28-2012, 09:11 PM
  #208
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Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
Fair enough and I agree they didn't always face the weakest defenders during that entire stretch.

By the end it was more of a 2a/2b situation with the Roy line as the top line.



In their first 4gms together Ennis had 5g 3a 8pts
Well I guess these are the discussions that result from UFA closing in and no signings or trades to talk about.

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06-28-2012, 09:16 PM
  #209
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Originally Posted by ColonelForbin View Post
Well I guess these are the discussions that result from UFA closing in and no signings or trades to talk about.
Too true

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06-28-2012, 09:32 PM
  #210
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Originally Posted by jfb392 View Post
The majority of advanced statistics are simply re-purposed data from NHL.com, so it's not like they are privately recorded or something.
The data is just scraped and formulas are applied.

I fear that this concept may be difficult for you to grasp, however.
It's much easier to completely ignore them.

Corsi is actually a fine predictor of both puck possession and scoring chances.
In fact, recent research has shown that it and Fenwick are essentially as accurate as actual recorded scoring chances over larger sample sizes:

http://nhlnumbers.com/2012/6/26/shot...nd-shot-totals
Good article, fair enough.

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06-28-2012, 11:43 PM
  #211
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I am so hesitant to trade Ennis. He plays so much like a left-handed Briere. Although he may not reach some of the point totals Briere had, he'll probably be a consistent 60-70 point center (and possibly more). While not being that big, he plays big. Tyler's always battling and not afraid to put all 5'9, 160-some pounds on the line to make the play. I think he ends up being the number one center we have sought after for so long. If he stays healthy and by the grace of god Grigorenko pans out, Roy can pack his bags unless he plans to be an effective winger.

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06-29-2012, 01:52 AM
  #212
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I think this thread would benefit from everyone very clearly restating their position on several points:

#1 Are you opening to trade Ennis?
#2 Are you willing to trade Ennis in a package for Ryan?
#3 Does Ryan have more objective value than Ennis?
#4 Do advanced stats mean anything?
#5 Can Tyler Ennis be an important center in the top 9?
#6 Can Tyler Ennis be an important FORWARD in the top 6?
#7A Is Tyler Ennis' longterm future with the Sabres at wing?
#7B ...But with viable ability to slide back at center when there are injuries or line shake-ups?
#8A Is Tyler Ennis just a plain awesome guy to have around the team and root for?
#8B ...Does his hair shine golden like a playful Adonis?
#8C ...Does his smile light up the world?

The (or at least a) reasonable answer to all of those things is yes. My answer to all of them except for #2 is yes. I've explained my reasoning for #2 many times and recognize it's something of a relative risk, but I feel good about it.

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06-29-2012, 02:03 AM
  #213
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob Paxon View Post
I think this thread would benefit from everyone very clearly restating their position on several points:

#1 Are you opening to trade Ennis? Sure
#2 Are you willing to trade Ennis in a package for Ryan? Particularly
#3 Does Ryan have more objective value than Ennis? Of course
#4 Do advanced stats mean anything? You get them before they actually happen?
#5 Can Tyler Ennis be an important center in the top 9? It's possible
#6 Can Tyler Ennis be an important FORWARD in the top 6? Signs point to maybe
#7A Is Tyler Ennis' longterm future with the Sabres at wing? If anywhere
#7B ...But with viable ability to slide back at center when there are injuries or line shake-ups? It's Lindy
#8A Is Tyler Ennis just a plain awesome guy to have around the team and root for? I like him
#8B ...Does his hair shine golden like a playful Adonis? I just wanna touch it, but it's bad luck to touch it until you win his heart
#8C ...Does his smile light up the world? David Beckham gets to touch it *
.




*. When he gets traded to SoCal for Robert Ryan

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06-29-2012, 02:42 AM
  #214
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob Paxon View Post
I think this thread would benefit from everyone very clearly restating their position on several points:

#1 Are you opening to trade Ennis?

Yes- has to be a great deal for Buffalo, not just a move based on current center depth.

#2 Are you willing to trade Ennis in a package for Ryan?

Yes- though Ennis would be a fall back position. I would much rather send Anaheim futures, like the Armia/Pysyk based deal Ducks fans like.

#3 Does Ryan have more objective value than Ennis?

Currently, absolutely. Especially for a team like Buffalo.

#4 Do advanced stats mean anything?

Yes- provides context to player performance.

#5 Can Tyler Ennis be an important center in the top 9?

Absolutely. A top nine with Hodgson-Grigorenko-Ennis could be a matchup nightmare for opponents.

#6 Can Tyler Ennis be an important FORWARD in the top 6?

Yes. Especially if Regier is right and the league tightens officiating again.

#7A Is Tyler Ennis' longterm future with the Sabres at wing?

Depends on league stance on officiating and other players that develop.

#7B ...But with viable ability to slide back at center when there are injuries or line shake-ups?

Yes

#8A Is Tyler Ennis just a plain awesome guy to have around the team and root for?

Yes

#8B ...Does his hair shine golden like a playful Adonis?

Oh, the children he could have with
Kate Upton. Though I think she's much taller. At least when he's not on skates.


#8C ...Does his smile light up the world?

It can. Legend has it that Tyler will solve world hunger with a wink and a smile.

The (or at least a) reasonable answer to all of those things is yes. My answer to all of them except for #2 is yes. I've explained my reasoning for #2 many times and recognize it's something of a relative risk, but I feel good about it.
Fairly simple choices.


Last edited by Der Jaeger: 06-29-2012 at 08:31 AM. Reason: bolding answers
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06-29-2012, 07:52 AM
  #215
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob Paxon View Post
I think this thread would benefit from everyone very clearly restating their position on several points:

#1 Are you opening to trade Ennis? yes, but if there's anyone on the roster Regier should overvalue, it's Myers, Ennis, and Sekera because of the combination of age, skill, contract value
#2 Are you willing to trade Ennis in a package for Ryan? yes, but as stated previously, I prefer to get Stafford and Foligno playing like Ryan
#3 Does Ryan have more objective value than Ennis? depends on what you value, but at present, yes
#4 Do advanced stats mean anything? 91% of the time they do. I leave it to the reader to determine the 9% of the time they don't.
#5 Can Tyler Ennis be an important center in the top 9? yes
#6 Can Tyler Ennis be an important FORWARD in the top 6? already is
#7A Is Tyler Ennis' longterm future with the Sabres at wing? unknown
#7B ...But with viable ability to slide back at center when there are injuries or line shake-ups? yes
#8A Is Tyler Ennis just a plain awesome guy to have around the team and root for? his mom thinks so
#8B ...Does his hair shine golden like a playful Adonis? too much so. Dude needs to bring back the short haircut
#8C ...Does his smile light up the world? only when he scores

The (or at least a) reasonable answer to all of those things is yes. My answer to all of them except for #2 is yes. I've explained my reasoning for #2 many times and recognize it's something of a relative risk, but I feel good about it.
Sign the dude to a good contract, Darcy.

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06-29-2012, 08:01 AM
  #216
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#1 Are you opening to trade Ennis? YES, BUT Only for a player I deem to be a clear upgrade and team need (i.e. Bobby Ryan)
#2 Are you willing to trade Ennis in a package for Ryan? YES
#3 Does Ryan have more objective value than Ennis? YES
#4 Do advanced stats mean anything? YES
#5 Can Tyler Ennis be an important center in the top 9? YES
#6 Can Tyler Ennis be an important FORWARD in the top 6? YES
#7A Is Tyler Ennis' longterm future with the Sabres at wing? UNDECIDED
#7B ...But with viable ability to slide back at center when there are injuries or line shake-ups? YES
#8A Is Tyler Ennis just a plain awesome guy to have around the team and root for? YES


I think an important question was left out... a position that has been mentioned in this thread.

#9 Is Tyler Ennis a potential first line /#1 center? NO
(Bobby Ryan IS a 1st line Power Forward)

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06-29-2012, 08:15 AM
  #217
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jame View Post
I think an important question was left out... a position that has been mentioned in this thread.

#9 Is Tyler Ennis a potential first line /#1 center? NO
(Bobby Ryan IS a 1st line Power Forward)
I was going to read through the whole thread in compiling the list but I opted to just go off the top of my head. It's a rather long and not particularly enjoyable thread

Good addition, and my answer would also be no. At least "do you think Ennis will be a #1 center" would be no. And in the context of the Sabres I certainly do not think he would be a better fit at top line center than Grigs (should he pan out, obviously).

I do think he has top 6 center potential but that ideally would not be how things work in the future, with Grigs and Hodgson taking those spots.

However, you totally dropped the ball in not formulating the question so that the "most reasonable" answer "yes". You ruin everything.

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06-29-2012, 08:26 AM
  #218
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My answers

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob Paxon View Post
I think this thread would benefit from everyone very clearly restating their position on several points:

#1 Are you opening to trade Ennis? Yes, everyone should be available for the right price.
#2 Are you willing to trade Ennis in a package for Ryan? No
#3 Does Ryan have more objective value than Ennis? No
#4 Do advanced stats mean anything? Yes, but they are often abused and overused
#5 Can Tyler Ennis be an important center in the top 9? Of course
#6 Can Tyler Ennis be an important FORWARD in the top 6? Yes
#7A Is Tyler Ennis' longterm future with the Sabres at wing? Maybe, like Briere in Philly
#7B ...But with viable ability to slide back at center when there are injuries or line shake-ups? Yes
#8A Is Tyler Ennis just a plain awesome guy to have around the team and root for? Yes
#8B ...Does his hair shine golden like a playful Adonis? Reminds me of a young Gretzky
#8C ...Does his smile light up the world? Yes

#9 ... Can he be a No. 1 center? I believe so

The (or at least a) reasonable answer to all of those things is yes. My answer to all of them except for #2 is yes. I've explained my reasoning for #2 many times and recognize it's something of a relative risk, but I feel good about it.

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06-29-2012, 08:38 AM
  #219
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob Paxon View Post
I think this thread would benefit from everyone very clearly restating their position on several points:

#1 Are you opening to trade Ennis?
#2 Are you willing to trade Ennis in a package for Ryan?
#3 Does Ryan have more objective value than Ennis?
#4 Do advanced stats mean anything?
#5 Can Tyler Ennis be an important center in the top 9?
#6 Can Tyler Ennis be an important FORWARD in the top 6?
#7A Is Tyler Ennis' longterm future with the Sabres at wing?
#7B ...But with viable ability to slide back at center when there are injuries or line shake-ups?
#8A Is Tyler Ennis just a plain awesome guy to have around the team and root for?
#8B ...Does his hair shine golden like a playful Adonis?
#8C ...Does his smile light up the world?

The (or at least a) reasonable answer to all of those things is yes. My answer to all of them except for #2 is yes. I've explained my reasoning for #2 many times and recognize it's something of a relative risk, but I feel good about it.
1 - In the right deal, anyone is available
2 - Yes
3 - Yes
4 - Yes, particularly when establishing context
5 - Damn straight
6 - Yepper
7A - Possibly. None of this new-found center depth has amounted to anything at the NHL level, nor is the roster complete for next season yet. He might be back on the wing sooner than we expect... or never.
7B - Always a good thing to have (see Sharp in Chicago as a handy example of what versatility can do)
8A - Yeah, he's fun to root for
8B/C -
---------------------------
9 - Maybe. Size is and always will be a concern.

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06-29-2012, 08:40 AM
  #220
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stokes84 View Post
My answers

#3 Does Ryan have more objective value than Ennis? No
seems like a really stubborn position to continue to take... since it's demonstrably false (as multiple stats have pointed out in this thread)... or the definition of objective value is unclear to you.

You can be unwilling to trade Ennis, and you could believe (for whatever reason), that he can be a #1 center... those are beliefs, and they don't necessarily have to be supported by much of anything.

But there is no support for the statement "Ennis has more objective value then Ryan"

no support

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06-29-2012, 08:53 AM
  #221
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I probably should have worded it differently than 'objective value' to be clear what I was going for. I think most will get that I'm asking about value divorced from team context and personal fan love. Perhaps I could have just asked which player do you believe has higher value around the league. In any case I think the answer should definitively be "yes", which doesn't necessarily disclude Ennis having more actual value should we all be privy to omniscience.

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06-29-2012, 09:03 AM
  #222
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jame View Post
seems like a really stubborn position to continue to take... since it's demonstrably false (as multiple stats have pointed out in this thread)... or the definition of objective value is unclear to you.

You can be unwilling to trade Ennis, and you could believe (for whatever reason), that he can be a #1 center... those are beliefs, and they don't necessarily have to be supported by much of anything.

But there is no support for the statement "Ennis has more objective value then Ryan"

no support
Again, younger, cheaper, higher ppg, more critical position. Plus faster, more creative, more upside, better player.

And for this team, maybe you don't remember, there is NO speed without Ennis in the lineup. His speed is critical.

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06-29-2012, 09:09 AM
  #223
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stokes84 View Post
Again, younger, cheaper, higher ppg, more critical position. Plus faster, more creative, more upside, better player.

And for this team, maybe you don't remember, there is NO speed without Ennis in the lineup. His speed is critical.
That should not be considered as part of his "objective value", as it is (an attempt at) consideration of value divorced from specific team context (such as needs and preferences).

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06-29-2012, 09:14 AM
  #224
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob Paxon View Post
That should not be considered as part of his "objective value", as it is (an attempt at) consideration of value divorced from specific team context (such as needs and preferences).
I know, that's why I put it in a seperate paragraph, but I still think it's important to think about.

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06-29-2012, 09:17 AM
  #225
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob Paxon View Post
That should not be considered as part of his "objective value", as it is (an attempt at) consideration of value divorced from specific team context (such as needs and preferences).
I don't think the two are separable. All value is IMO derived from a team standpoint--trades happen when another team values a player more than his own team, and therefore middle ground can be reached on a deal.

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