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Advanced stats say Sabres should consider dealing Ennis

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06-29-2012, 09:18 AM
  #226
Slangston
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The issue I have with this whole 'advanced' statistics thing, is that it doesn't take into account a players individual growth and development. It suggests players attributes are fixed, static, and are incapable of change/improvement.

Whose to say Ennis' game doesn't round-out over the summer? Perhaps the tore he went on late season instills confidence, giving him an mental edge next year. What if his game evolves to the point where match-ups won't be much of an issue.

Young players can't be measured in numbers and statistics.

What a bunk study.

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06-29-2012, 09:26 AM
  #227
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stokes84 View Post
Again, younger, cheaper, higher ppg, more critical position. Plus faster, more creative, more upside, better player.
objective : not influenced by personal feelings, interpretations, or prejudice; based on facts; unbiased: an objective opinion.

Younger : Fact... relevance is limited (Younger vs Player entering prime)
Cheaper : Fact... relevance is limited (Stafford is cheaper then Malkin)
Faster : Fact... but closer then you think

Higher PPG : False/misleading
- Ryan Rookie year vs Ennis rookie = Ryan better PPG
- Ryan 2nd year vs Ennis 2nd year = Ryan better PPG
- Ryan THIS season vs Ennis THIS season = Ennis better by .01

More Critical position : Subjective (although I agree)
More creative : Subjective
More Upside : Subjective
Better Player : Subjective

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06-29-2012, 09:36 AM
  #228
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GrigsAndGirgs View Post
I don't think the two are separable. All value is IMO derived from a team standpoint--trades happen when another team values a player more than his own team, and therefore middle ground can be reached on a deal.
I think they're easily separable as abstracts, the question is how "correct" you can be in how you consider the values, because we aren't really assessing value in relation to any prospective trade, it's simply an attempt at assessing a player's contextually-independent value. It's not really any different than debating which of two players are better, only you're also weighing contract, age, and potential.

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06-29-2012, 09:51 AM
  #229
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob Paxon View Post
I think they're easily separable as abstracts, the question is how "correct" you can be in how you consider the values, because we aren't really assessing value in relation to any prospective trade, it's simply an attempt at assessing a player's contextually-independent value. It's not really any different than debating which of two players are better, only you're also weighing contract, age, and potential.
But then the question is what use is the exercise?

If the ultimate question being answered is "would you trade Ennis for Ryan", it can only be answerable by determining whether the team is better off with Ryan or Ennis, regardless which player you might rank higher on the list of "best NHL players", which includes variable such as fit, potential, window for winning, etc.

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06-29-2012, 10:12 AM
  #230
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Slangston View Post
The issue I have with this whole 'advanced' statistics thing, is that it doesn't take into account a players individual growth and development. It suggests players attributes are fixed, static, and are incapable of change/improvement.
They do not suggest a player attributes are fixed or static. Posters may use them to make such arguements but the stats themselves do not do that. They are a further breakdown of what the player has done to that point usually using NHL.com's stats. They're used to get a better context. Do you complain about the stats on NHL.com not factoring in future growth? Of course not that would be ridiculous

To steal from jfb ---> The majority of advanced statistics are simply re-purposed data from NHL.com, so it's not like they are privately recorded or something.
The data is just scraped and formulas are applied.


Quote:
Whose to say Ennis' game doesn't round-out over the summer? Perhaps the tore he went on late season instills confidence, giving him an mental edge next year. What if his game evolves to the point where match-ups won't be much of an issue.
You're completely missing the point of these stats. They are giving us a broader context of what a player has done up to this point in time. Its not predicting what he will or won't do.

Quote:
Young players can't be measured in numbers and statistics.

What a bunk study.
Of course they can be measured with stats. What a silly statement.


Last edited by joshjull: 06-29-2012 at 10:23 AM.
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06-29-2012, 10:15 AM
  #231
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GrigsAndGirgs View Post
But then the question is what use is the exercise?

If the ultimate question being answered is "would you trade Ennis for Ryan", it can only be answerable by determining whether the team is better off with Ryan or Ennis, regardless which player you might rank higher on the list of "best NHL players", which includes variable such as fit, potential, window for winning, etc.
It was a separate question from "would you trade Ennis from Ryan" and the purpose of asking was to determine which people did not want to because of subjective value and which did not want to because of objective value

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06-29-2012, 10:20 AM
  #232
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Slangston View Post
The issue I have with this whole 'advanced' statistics thing, is that it doesn't take into account a players individual growth and development. It suggests players attributes are fixed, static, and are incapable of change/improvement.

Whose to say Ennis' game doesn't round-out over the summer? Perhaps the tore he went on late season instills confidence, giving him an mental edge next year. What if his game evolves to the point where match-ups won't be much of an issue.

Young players can't be measured in numbers and statistics.

What a bunk study.



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06-29-2012, 10:47 AM
  #233
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Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
They do not suggest a player attributes are fixed or static. The issue is you don't understand the stats. They are a further breakdown of what the player has done to that point using NHL.com's stats. They're used to get a better context. Do you complain about the stats on NHL.com?

To steal from jfb ---> The majority of advanced statistics are simply re-purposed data from NHL.com, so it's not like they are privately recorded or something.
The data is just scraped and formulas are applied.
I understand the stats quite well, and aware that they're recorded on a game-to-game basis. Perhaps I should have stated my position more clearly. I take issue with someone using 'advanced' statistics to suggest moving an immature still-improving player. There are many variables to consider when weighing and evaluating a players worth. Variables that require the use of the 'eye', and can't be measured by numbers. I'd argue that player projection for the most part is done with the 'eye'.

Quote:
Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
You're completely missing the point of these stats. They are telling us what he has done to this point. Its not predicting what he will or won't do.
Again, I understand their purpose. I just find fault in the use of these statistics to suggest moving a still developing asset.

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06-29-2012, 10:56 AM
  #234
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Slangston View Post
I understand the stats quite well, and aware that they're recorded on a game-to-game basis. Perhaps I should have stated my position more clearly. I take issue with someone using 'advanced' statistics to suggest moving an immature still-improving player. There are many variables to consider when weighing and evaluating a players worth. Variables that require the use of the 'eye', and can't be measured by numbers. I'd argue that player projection for the most part is done with the 'eye'.



Again, I understand their purpose. I just find fault in the use of these statistics to suggest moving a still developing asset.
Fair enough.

Its worth pointing out that the article writer was suggesting that we should consider dealing Ennis because you might get a great return. He's not saying we should or have to. He also said we can have success with him staying as well. The article didn't suggest Ennis can't get better either. It just point out some of his production numbers (like shooting %) aren't likely to be sustained over the course of a season. It also fleshed out a better context of Ennis' success.

I think too many are getting upset over a suggestion thats really not that radical.

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06-30-2012, 08:27 AM
  #235
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Wow all I can say is go Anaheim?Sure I wanna see this team win and make pretty splashes, I just don't get how you can passionately love this team and talk up trading Ennis for Ryan, please just root for Anaheim and listen to Mike Schopp it makes me sick

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06-30-2012, 08:31 AM
  #236
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Originally Posted by Lloydchristmas138 View Post
Wow all I can say is go Anaheim?Sure I wanna see this team win and make pretty splashes, I just don't get how you can passionately love this team and talk up trading Ennis for Ryan, please just root for Anaheim and listen to Mike Schopp it makes me sick
You disagree with me and don't think all Sabres players are the best ever? You actually support the idea of improving the team? You're obviously not a TRUE SABRES FAN.

If you don't like it kiddo, coming to a hockey discussion forum was a bad choice.

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06-30-2012, 09:03 AM
  #237
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OK Guy not even close, I'm saying why are we trying to validate/discuss trading Ennis for the pin-up calender powerforward? Players like Ennis, centers with dynamic offensive ability are just as valuable if not more than Bobby Ryan, and absolutely has an important spot on this team. Sometimes the best moves are the ones that aren't made, this is a prime example.

And as a true sabres fan I absolutely enjoy watching our young homegrown players develop and become great NHLers, yes it's a factor that doesn't hinder winning as long as the right core of guys are kept.

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06-30-2012, 09:51 AM
  #238
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Originally Posted by Lloydchristmas138 View Post
OK Guy not even close, I'm saying why are we trying to validate/discuss trading Ennis for the pin-up calender powerforward? Players like Ennis, centers with dynamic offensive ability are just as valuable if not more than Bobby Ryan, and absolutely has an important spot on this team. Sometimes the best moves are the ones that aren't made, this is a prime example.
I think part of the problem is that some people aren't entirely sold on him being a center yet. If Grigs and Girgs and Hodgson wind up being our defacto top 9 centers a few years down the line, would you rather have Ennis or Ryan on the wing?

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06-30-2012, 10:41 AM
  #239
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so happy they drafted him


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06-30-2012, 10:49 AM
  #240
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Originally Posted by Lloydchristmas138 View Post
OK Guy not even close, I'm saying why are we trying to validate/discuss trading Ennis for the pin-up calender powerforward? Players like Ennis, centers with dynamic offensive ability are just as valuable if not more than Bobby Ryan, and absolutely has an important spot on this team. Sometimes the best moves are the ones that aren't made, this is a prime example.

And as a true sabres fan I absolutely enjoy watching our young homegrown players develop and become great NHLers, yes it's a factor that doesn't hinder winning as long as the right core of guys are kept.
You were saying that he shouldn't be a Sabres fan and instead become a Ducks fan because he thought Bobby Ryan is a better player than Tyler Ennis (he is).

That's downright silly and immature, no matter what your reasoning. You can disagree with somebody all they want, but suggesting they shouldn't be a Sabres fan because they wouldn't mind trading one of our players is the wrong way to do it.

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06-30-2012, 10:59 AM
  #241
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Originally Posted by Lloydchristmas138 View Post
Wow all I can say is go Anaheim?Sure I wanna see this team win and make pretty splashes, I just don't get how you can passionately love this team and talk up trading Ennis for Ryan, please just root for Anaheim and listen to Mike Schopp it makes me sick
What the hell are you talking about?

Ryan is bigger, stronger, more powerful, more physical, and has scored 30 goals for three years in a row. I love Ennis, but please tell me when he accomplished that.

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06-30-2012, 02:27 PM
  #242
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I'm just saying that I don't think the stretch of hockey where Ennis was dominant was a fluke and that eventually he'll be putting up more points than Ryan. The numbers are obviously in favor of Ryan right now but from watching the games I think even right now Ennis makes a greater impact in a game because of his ability to seemingly control the pace. Hockey's not all about size; skill and heart are still important attributes.

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06-30-2012, 08:44 PM
  #243
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lloydchristmas138 View Post
I'm just saying that I don't think the stretch of hockey where Ennis was dominant was a fluke and that eventually he'll be putting up more points than Ryan. The numbers are obviously in favor of Ryan right now but from watching the games I think even right now Ennis makes a greater impact in a game because of his ability to seemingly control the pace. Hockey's not all about size; skill and heart are still important attributes.
That's valid, and I also don't want to trade Ennis for Ryan. But what you said about rooting for the Ducks, etc was ridiculous. There's absolutely nothing wrong with a Sabres fan preferring Ryan over Ennis and it's rather the sensible viewpoint right now.

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