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The Official BlackBerry Thread | Part 2 | BlackBerry Q10 & Z10 Available Now

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Old
06-29-2012, 12:36 AM
  #101
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like i said


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06-29-2012, 10:01 AM
  #102
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I really wanted to support RIM too. I can't do it alone and I can't wait another six months. I think this is the end anyway. Heins seems like a bright guy, but he didn't have enough time to fix the mistakes of the last CEO team.

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06-29-2012, 10:34 AM
  #103
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnny LaRue View Post
I really wanted to support RIM too. I can't do it alone and I can't wait another six months. I think this is the end anyway. Heins seems like a bright guy, but he didn't have enough time to fix the mistakes of the last CEO team.
He was head of various HW and marketing divisions at RIM before he became the CEO, he's not without blame in all this. His problem is that's he's the CEO of RIM ATM.

RIM's problem is that they're really backing themselves in a corner...BB10 will be post iOS 6, WP 8, JB, and openwebOS (FWIW).

And for the most part, those are all mature platforms, even webOS that's been around circa 2009. BB10 is coming out fresh, with little dev and ecosystem support.

RIM would have to pull of an Apple, a la iPod to turn things around, but I've never seen another company like Apple, one that they have a cult following, and two, they tend to be more innovative/capable of judging trends, and delivering on their roadmap and goals.

I went with an underdog with my first smartphone (Pre+), and while the UI was nice, and some other aspects, having dev support now is so crucial, and it's why I got an iPhone to replace it. A web browser can only do so many things.

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06-29-2012, 11:06 AM
  #104
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And for the most part, those are all mature platforms, even webOS that's been around circa 2009. BB10 is coming out fresh, with little dev and ecosystem support.
I think RIM's only hope now is to provide support for running Android apps on top of BB, inside an appropriate sandbox. That might stop the bleeding long enough to get BB10 out (and of course BB10 must also support Android apps). Anything short of doing that (and quickly!) and they may well be dead before BB10 releases.

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06-29-2012, 11:16 AM
  #105
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RIM is going to go the way of Palm.

Going to continue self-destructing until some hardware manufacturer interested in owning their own platform buys them out. The RIM/Blackberry brand will gradually be phased out. Then the platform itself will be abandoned after it fails to make any headway against Android and iOS.

The only interesting questions remaining at this point is how much RIM sells for, and whether the Blackberry platform will go open-source when all is said and done, the way that WebOS did.

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Old
06-29-2012, 11:17 AM
  #106
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2013?

Goodbye RIM.

The writing has been on the wall for a long time anyway.

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06-29-2012, 11:32 AM
  #107
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Quote:
Originally Posted by guinness View Post
He was head of various HW and marketing divisions at RIM before he became the CEO, he's not without blame in all this. His problem is that's he's the CEO of RIM ATM.

RIM's problem is that they're really backing themselves in a corner...BB10 will be post iOS 6, WP 8, JB, and openwebOS (FWIW).

And for the most part, those are all mature platforms, even webOS that's been around circa 2009. BB10 is coming out fresh, with little dev and ecosystem support.


RIM would have to pull of an Apple, a la iPod to turn things around, but I've never seen another company like Apple, one that they have a cult following, and two, they tend to be more innovative/capable of judging trends, and delivering on their roadmap and goals.

I went with an underdog with my first smartphone (Pre+), and while the UI was nice, and some other aspects, having dev support now is so crucial, and it's why I got an iPhone to replace it. A web browser can only do so many things.
That's not entirely true. BlackBerry 10 is based on the QNX (BBX) platform that is currently in use on the BlackBerry PlayBook.

For all the crap the PlayBook takes the current PlayBook OS is Very good.

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06-29-2012, 11:35 AM
  #108
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Originally Posted by optimus2861 View Post
I think RIM's only hope now is to provide support for running Android apps on top of BB, inside an appropriate sandbox. That might stop the bleeding long enough to get BB10 out (and of course BB10 must also support Android apps). Anything short of doing that (and quickly!) and they may well be dead before BB10 releases.
The PlayBook already supports Android Apps.

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06-29-2012, 11:38 AM
  #109
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Originally Posted by MayDay View Post
RIM is going to go the way of Palm.

Going to continue self-destructing until some hardware manufacturer interested in owning their own platform buys them out. The RIM/Blackberry brand will gradually be phased out. Then the platform itself will be abandoned after it fails to make any headway against Android and iOS.

The only interesting questions remaining at this point is how much RIM sells for, and whether the Blackberry platform will go open-source when all is said and done, the way that WebOS did.
Except that RIM has 2.2 Billion in Cash & 0 Debt.

Palm did not have those advantages.

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06-29-2012, 12:15 PM
  #110
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The PlayBook already supports Android Apps.
Which means RIM can do it on the handsets. Doing it on the PlayBook alone doesn't do squat for them because nobody cares about those things. RIM screwed those things big time when they launched 'em without native email.

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06-29-2012, 01:47 PM
  #111
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Which means RIM can do it on the handsets. Doing it on the PlayBook alone doesn't do squat for them because nobody cares about those things. RIM screwed those things big time when they launched 'em without native email.
Well they can do it on the New BlackBerry 10 handsets as they're based off of the QNX (BBX) Platform the same as the PlayBook. They can't do it on the current phones as they're based off of the Old BlackBerry OS.

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06-29-2012, 02:14 PM
  #112
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Neely, if you can't see the impact of this delay, then there's no saving you.

You kept saying "The BB10 phones will be out in a few months" as if it were fact. The actual fact of the matter is they won't be around until January at the earliest, or March at the latest, and that's assuming RIM is still going to follow through on its current course.

Nobody wants to buy BlackBerrys today, and this mythical saviour platform won't be out until 2013, and that's not even counting the fact there is non-existent developer support for it, and by then the new iPhone and flagship Android phone will be out. Hell, even Apollo phones will probably be out by then.

It's over. If you can't see that, then I'm not sure what to say. RIM is out of time. BB10 is already years too late, and now it's going to be even more too late.

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06-29-2012, 02:38 PM
  #113
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Neely start mourning man. At least you can sell yours on ebay in 5 years.

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06-29-2012, 03:10 PM
  #114
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Except that RIM has 2.2 Billion in Cash & 0 Debt.
Do the math; at $500m+ loss per quarter that gives RIM very little time, and public perception of them has now noticeably turned from "they're in trouble" to "they're all but a goner." Who's going to buy new BB gear now? I sure as heck wouldn't (and didn't; I bought an Android phone a couple months ago).

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06-29-2012, 03:15 PM
  #115
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Originally Posted by Neely2005 View Post
That's not entirely true. BlackBerry 10 is based on the QNX (BBX) platform that is currently in use on the BlackBerry PlayBook.

For all the crap the PlayBook takes the current PlayBook OS is Very good.
And a lot of good that did the Playbook, pre OS 2.0 and fire sale.

All the PB is to me, is a slightly more polished Touchpad...neither tablet sold before they hit the $200 threshold, and devs stayed away. An OS and potential doesn't mean squat.

As for running Android apps, whoopty doo, better authentic Android phones and tablets can be had for less.

Honestly, it's Palm 2.0. One time market share darlings, and then frittered away the market because of lack of innovation and hubris.

Even MS is struggling to make a dent now, and they have deeper pockets then anyone not named Apple.

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06-29-2012, 04:41 PM
  #116
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even on crackberry.com, the strongest supporters of RIM are starting to lose hope
http://crackberry.com/blackberrys-pa...form-pregnancy

As a Canadian and a former resident of K/W, I do hope they rebound, but this news is simply devastating from a business perspective

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Old
06-29-2012, 08:27 PM
  #117
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Originally Posted by optimus2861 View Post
Do the math; at $500m+ loss per quarter that gives RIM very little time, and public perception of them has now noticeably turned from "they're in trouble" to "they're all but a goner." Who's going to buy new BB gear now? I sure as heck wouldn't (and didn't; I bought an Android phone a couple months ago).
That's not entirely true:

"Revenue was $2.8 billion for the quarter. That’s down a whopping 33% from last quarter. But keep in mind last quarter. To get a sense of how disappointing this is, the Street was expecting revenue of $3.1 billion. So it’s a miss of just over 10% Not pretty.

Earnings-wise, Wall Street expected a small loss (one penny per share). In reality RIM lost $0.37 per share, which amounts to $192 million.

RIM shipped only 7.8 million BlackBerry devices, compared to Wall Street expectations for 8.7 million. Again, that’s about a 10% shortfall.

Thorsten Heins says that the BlackBerry subscriber base is still growing in all regions except the United States

RIM is still cash flow positive. The media is already screwing this up, so it’s worth spending a moment to make sure this is crystal clear to our readers. RIM lost money when you look at the income statement. But a business’ actual cash flow is often very different from accounting profits or losses.

Looking at RIM’s cash flow statement, they generated about $710 million in cash flow from operations. This is a real number, and they are real dollars. However, almost $400 million of this came from a reduction in working capital.

RIM has a business that can still bring in about $300 million per quarter right now, minus some capital spending that will still be required. Plus, they’re implementing a cost cutting program to save another $1 billion per year (or $250 million per quarter). This means RIM can probably absorb a decline of another $500 million in cash flow from operations before starting to burn cash. The caveat is they need to execute on their restructuring plan for this to be true. Execution hasn’t been a strong point for this company lately.

http://crackberry.com/after-tonight%...are-things-rim

Also a key point to consider:

On the conference call last night they actually said that the sell through for devices was actually about 10.5 million versus the 7.8 million shipped. They also said the sell thru for PlayBook was also higher than the 260000 shipped.



Things are definitely very bad for RIM right now but as usual the media is exaggerating how bad and ignoring a few key points.

But if RIM does eventually fail I'm sure many people on this board will be very happy for some strange reason. I guess they like seeing hard working Canadians lose their jobs.


Last edited by Neely2005: 06-29-2012 at 08:33 PM.
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Old
06-29-2012, 10:06 PM
  #118
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Is "the cost cutting program" the lay-off of 5000 employees?

Hard working Canadians are going to lose their jobs because the people at the top weren't innovative or forward-thinking enough to see what the **** they were doing.

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06-29-2012, 10:32 PM
  #119
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Hate to see RIM going down. A lot more of their people are going to end up out of work before this is over, however it ends.

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06-29-2012, 10:43 PM
  #120
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But if RIM does eventually fail I'm sure many people on this board will be very happy for some strange reason. I guess they like seeing hard working Canadians lose their jobs.
Truthfully, the only way this ends in a way that I would be "happy about it" would be if Google does to RIM what they did with Motorola.


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06-29-2012, 10:58 PM
  #121
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This is really depressing.

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06-30-2012, 02:31 AM
  #122
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As a former BlackBerry user, it is tough to see what BB has become. The more time goes on, the more BB is becoming an afterthought. BB used to be one of the best phones to have, but now it's about Android or the iPhone. Quite frankly, the latter two passed the former up in many things and it is why I made the switch to Android after owning two BlackBerries.

I want to see BB rise again, if nothing else for the fact it can provide competition, and competition is a healthy thing as it pushes everyone to be better. However, I just don't see it happening. The window has closed, and I doubt it re-opens.

RIM is dead. It's just a matter of when the plug is pulled and its taken off of life support.

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06-30-2012, 09:25 AM
  #123
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RIM won't die completely. Heins and the board of directors will sell off the handset division before that happens. The tech and software side of things is still workable.

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06-30-2012, 11:19 AM
  #124
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This was a pretty sad moment for RIM. The expectation bar was set low, and they still managed to come in lower.

While their cash position and patent portfolio are strong, it actually is what makes the situation worse for their outlook. At this stage, with the current stock price, they are worth less than the sum of their parts. I think the chance of someone buying them and keeping the Blackberry brand as a going concern is getting smaller. I imagine their customer confidence is dwindling, and that IT departments across the world are probably starting transition plans away from BB, as they can't rely on it staying as is for too long.

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06-30-2012, 12:09 PM
  #125
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Neely2005 View Post
That's not entirely true:

"Revenue was $2.8 billion for the quarter. Thatís down a whopping 33% from last quarter. But keep in mind last quarter. To get a sense of how disappointing this is, the Street was expecting revenue of $3.1 billion. So itís a miss of just over 10% Not pretty.

Earnings-wise, Wall Street expected a small loss (one penny per share). In reality RIM lost $0.37 per share, which amounts to $192 million.

RIM shipped only 7.8 million BlackBerry devices, compared to Wall Street expectations for 8.7 million. Again, thatís about a 10% shortfall.

Thorsten Heins says that the BlackBerry subscriber base is still growing in all regions except the United States

RIM is still cash flow positive. The media is already screwing this up, so itís worth spending a moment to make sure this is crystal clear to our readers. RIM lost money when you look at the income statement. But a businessí actual cash flow is often very different from accounting profits or losses.

Looking at RIMís cash flow statement, they generated about $710 million in cash flow from operations. This is a real number, and they are real dollars. However, almost $400 million of this came from a reduction in working capital.

RIM has a business that can still bring in about $300 million per quarter right now, minus some capital spending that will still be required. Plus, theyíre implementing a cost cutting program to save another $1 billion per year (or $250 million per quarter). This means RIM can probably absorb a decline of another $500 million in cash flow from operations before starting to burn cash. The caveat is they need to execute on their restructuring plan for this to be true. Execution hasnít been a strong point for this company lately.

http://crackberry.com/after-tonight%...are-things-rim

Also a key point to consider:

On the conference call last night they actually said that the sell through for devices was actually about 10.5 million versus the 7.8 million shipped. They also said the sell thru for PlayBook was also higher than the 260000 shipped.



Things are definitely very bad for RIM right now but as usual the media is exaggerating how bad and ignoring a few key points.

But if RIM does eventually fail I'm sure many people on this board will be very happy for some strange reason. I guess they like seeing hard working Canadians lose their jobs.

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