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Old
06-30-2012, 09:00 PM
  #51
joshjull
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jfb392 View Post
I got it from the player usage charts posted here a couple weeks back.
This particular assertion was made by Derek Jedamski (Buffalo_87 on here, part of this blog).
I trust his evaluation is correct as he is very knowledgeable in this field and the charts weren't published by a bunch of nobodies (it was spearheaded by Robert Vollman of Hockey Prospectus and Hockey Abstract and had many notable people contribute to it), so one would think that content published within it would be accurate.

Here's the excerpt:
He is using percentage of starts in the offensive zone to make his arguemnt but is incorrectly asserting that it means he played more than anyone else in the offensive zone. Thats plain wrong.



If Adam starts 57.7% of 19 shifts in the offense zone and Pommer starts 54% of his 31. Guess who started more times in the offensive zone? Thats from one game in November -vs- Winnipeg.

Basically you are being misleading and trying to make it seem is if Adam had offensive opportunities handed to him on a silver platter even after his time on the first line. Once he left the top line that simple wasn't the case. Not when no one else on the team was producing offense either during this time frame.

Why Adam is being singled out is beyond me.

His top 4 linemates.

Vanek 35.1%
Pommer 35.1%
Leino 24%
Kassian 22.7%

I hope folks see the huge drop offensively from his first two.


Last edited by joshjull: 06-30-2012 at 09:28 PM.
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06-30-2012, 09:18 PM
  #52
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Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
Why Adam is being singled out is beyond me.
Because we just used every pick but 2 to bolster the center depth? And 2 of those picks have made Tyler Ennis into a tradable commodity. Therefore if roster players are being talked about then ole Calgary draft picks Adam is in trouble.

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06-30-2012, 09:20 PM
  #53
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Originally Posted by Imlach a cup View Post
Because we just used every pick but 2 to bolster the center depth? And 2 of those picks have made Tyler Ennis into a tradable commodity. Therefore if roster players are being talked about then ole Calgary draft picks Adam is in trouble.
I'm talking about attacking him for his offensive struggles after leaving the top line. Particularly when most of the team was struggling to produce offense for most of the year. Too many seem to forget that and are only thinking of the offensive surge at the end of the year.

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06-30-2012, 09:34 PM
  #54
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Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
I'm talking about attacking him for his offensive struggles after leaving the top line. Particularly when most of the team was struggling to produce offense for most of the year. Too many seem to forget that and are only thinking of the offensive surge at the end of the year.
I'm qualifying his performance so I can rank him amongst Sabre centers. Unfortunately for Luke Hodgson, Grigs, Ennis, Roy, Girgs, Adam, Catenacci, Sundhr the depth chart doesn't look good for him. As the 6th guy on that list to fill 3 spots his value is greater ripping off Calgary's god awful GM.

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06-30-2012, 09:37 PM
  #55
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Imlach a cup View Post
I'm qualifying his performance so I can rank him amongst Sabre centers. Unfortunately for Luke Hodgson, Grigs, Ennis, Roy, Girgs, Adam, Catenacci, Sundhr the depth chart doesn't look good for him. As the 6th guy on that list to fill 3 spots his value is greater ripping off Calgary's god awful GM.
I can't argue with your desire to rob Feaster again

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06-30-2012, 09:39 PM
  #56
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Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
He is using percentage of starts in the offensive zone to make his arguemnt but is incorrectly asserting that it means he played more than anyone else in the offensive zone. Thats plain wrong.
No, it's not. We are analyzing Luke Adam and the advantages he did or didn't receive. In terms of analyzing roles, you evaluate the percentage, not raw numbers. If a player started 40% of 100 shifts in o-zone, did he have a more offensive role than a guy who started 60% of 50 shifts in o-zone. No, he didn't. And that is the point of the player usage charts.



Quote:
Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
If Adam starts 57.7% of 19 shifts in the offense zone and Pommer starts 54% of his 31. Guess who started more times in the offensive zone? Thats from one game in November -vs- Winnipeg.

Basically you are being misleading and trying to make it seem is if Adam had offensive opportunities handed to him on a silver platter even after his time on the first line. Once he left the top line that simple wasn't the case. Not when no one else on the team was producing offense either during this time frame.

Why Adam is being singled out is beyond me.

His top 4 linemates.

Vanek 35.1%
Pommer 35.1%
Leino 24%
Kassian 22.7%

I hope folks see the huge drop offensively from his first two.
I haven't read through the whole thread so I'm sorry if I'm way off base here. My interpretation is that many feel Adam was not given a fair opportunity because he was demoted, hence giving him very little opportunity to produce. I will never get down on Adam for not producing with Leino, Kassian, or any other 3rd/4th liners as linemates. But the point for me is that his production didn't drop off because of the demotion...the demotion happened because of his drop off in production (and play in general). To be honest, I was never really enamored with his play even when he was producing. To me it seemed fairly clear that Vanek and Pominville were playing at another level and Adam was more or less along for the ride.

Luke Adam had the 2nd highest ozone start rate (only behind Hecht), the 3rd easiest quality of competition (behind only Ellis and McCormick), and the highest quality of teammates on the team. Despite being demoted, when you take his time in Buffalo as a whole, he was put in a very fair position to succeed.

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06-30-2012, 10:01 PM
  #57
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Buffalo87 View Post
No, it's not. We are analyzing Luke Adam and the advantages he did or didn't receive. In terms of analyzing roles, you evaluate the percentage, not raw numbers. If a player started 40% of 100 shifts in o-zone, did he have a more offensive role than a guy who started 60% of 50 shifts in o-zone. No, he didn't. And that is the point of the player usage charts.





I haven't read through the whole thread so I'm sorry if I'm way off base here. My interpretation is that many feel Adam was not given a fair opportunity because he was demoted, hence giving him very little opportunity to produce. I will never get down on Adam for not producing with Leino, Kassian, or any other 3rd/4th liners as linemates. But the point for me is that his production didn't drop off because of the demotion...the demotion happened because of his drop off in production (and play in general). To be honest, I was never really enamored with his play even when he was producing. To me it seemed fairly clear that Vanek and Pominville were playing at another level and Adam was more or less along for the ride.

Luke Adam had the 2nd highest ozone start rate (only behind Hecht), the 3rd easiest quality of competition (behind only Ellis and McCormick), and the highest quality of teammates on the team. Despite being demoted, when you take his time in Buffalo as a whole, he was put in a very fair position to succeed.
Bingo

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06-30-2012, 10:53 PM
  #58
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Originally Posted by Buffalo87 View Post
No, it's not. We are analyzing Luke Adam and the advantages he did or didn't receive. In terms of analyzing roles, you evaluate the percentage, not raw numbers. If a player started 40% of 100 shifts in o-zone, did he have a more offensive role than a guy who started 60% of 50 shifts in o-zone. No, he didn't. And that is the point of the player usage charts.
I'm well aware of how player usage charts are used. Considering I used Pommer and Adam for the example, are you actually going to argue Adam had a more prominent offensive role than Pommer?

Also to argue Adam was used in such an overwhelmingly offensive role or that there was something unique about it is spinning the truth IMO.

Hecht 57.8%, Adam 57.7%, Ennis 57.5%, Stafford 55.1%, Leino 54.5%, Vanek 54.2%, Pommer 54%, Boyes 53.9%.

Hardly much of a difference.

I also had an issue with issue with how jfb expressed your point. Quoting jfb ... but he (Adam) was given ............the most offensive zone starts of anyone on the team

He didn't say the highest percentage of offensive zone starts. He said the most offensive zone starts. Thats simple not the case. Its not the case in percentage either.

Then he tried to argue he was talking about a specific time frame. Considering your article doesn't break down the offensive zone starts by specific game blocks. Although it does it for production but not percentage of zone starts. That percentage of 57.7% is based on his entire season. So jfb is either making something up or misunderstood your point.
Quote:
I haven't read through the whole thread so I'm sorry if I'm way off base here. My interpretation is that many feel Adam was not given a fair opportunity because he was demoted, hence giving him very little opportunity to produce. I will never get down on Adam for not producing with Leino, Kassian, or any other 3rd/4th liners as linemates. But the point for me is that his production didn't drop off because of the demotion...the demotion happened because of his drop off in production (and play in general). To be honest, I was never really enamored with his play even when he was producing. To me it seemed fairly clear that Vanek and Pominville were playing at another level and Adam was more or less along for the ride.
The demotion happened primarily because he sucked defensively. If he held his own in that regard, Ruff likely would have given him longer to bounce back offensively.


Quote:
Luke Adam had the 2nd highest ozone start rate (only behind Hecht), the 3rd easiest quality of competition (behind only Ellis and McCormick), and the highest quality of teammates on the team.
You're using Relative Corsi Quality of Teammates which is the average of the relative Corsi of teammates, weighted by ice time together. That is completely misleading when you look at the Sabres' relative Corsi numbers.

The relative Corsi numbers for the Sabres forwards that played at least 20gms

1. McCormick ---> 8.6
2. Leino --------> 7.7
3. Roy ----------> 5.4
4. Ellis ----------> 4.2
5. Stafford -----> 4.2
6. Adam --------> 3.3
7. Boyes -------> 1.9
8. Pommer ------> 0.2
9. Hecht -------> -0.2
10. Gerbe ------> -1.5
11. Ennis -------> -2.2
12. Kaleta ------> -2.7
13. Vanek ------> -4.4


How is having a higher average with this group, as ranked, mean you played with the highest quality teammates? That stat is WAY off the mark.



Other than Vanek and Pommer, no one on this team was producing offensively like they should and was hardly a "quality teammate" during Adam's time up here.
Quote:
Despite being demoted, when you take his time in Buffaloas a whole, he was put in a very fair position to succeed.
He was put in a position he wasn't ready for, a #1 scoring line center. Once that became obvious, his ice time was cut and so was the offensive caliber of his linemates.


Here is ice time/shifts for Adam in the four 13gm blocks from your blog.

Gms 1-13 ----> 15mins/19.5 shifts
Gms 14-26 ---> 11:45/12.8 shifts
Gms 27-39 ---> 12:30/16.6 ( I believe we had some injuries and thats why his ice time spiked a bit here)
Gms 40-52 ---> 10:15/14

Just passing this info along since I think this helps give further context to the data you already put forth. Nice job with that blog post/article btw.


Last edited by joshjull: 06-30-2012 at 11:25 PM.
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06-30-2012, 10:58 PM
  #59
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Originally Posted by 5 Minute Major View Post
Thank you, Mr. Obvious.

I guess young kids never lose confidence, or have a bad year, do they? Might as well throw him to the trash.
I still have hope for him. There's a lot of competition at center. I think he could excel on the wing. It works well for both sides.

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07-01-2012, 01:24 AM
  #60
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Originally Posted by Rob Paxon View Post
Wasn't even thinking. Armia, certainly.




There's no way Getzlaf and Perry are available.



* For the purposes of this discussion, by "third line player" I mean that in the typical sense, not in the sense of "we are rolling 3 scoring lines"

See, this is the kind of disconnect between you and I imagine the majority of us. Of course he could become a "third line"-type player but there's absolutely no evidence to indicate that, so there's no evidence to currently believe much less bank on it. Virtually all of his weaknesses are things which should be strengths for 3rd line players: he's not physical, he's not good defensively, and his struggles with skating negatively impact him in transition.

Right now I view him as a scoring line or bust player. He was awful without Vanek and Poms to make use of his strengths.
That 3 scoring line setup is how things will be for the foreseable future with Ruff behind the bench and with the centers on the roster and in the system. That matters and should be part of the discussion.

Take Ennis as an example. He is also a scoring line or bust type of player who's not physical and not very good defensively. While Ennis doesn't have the skating issues like Adam does, he does have a size issue(as it relates to 3rd line play).

Ennis wasn't having a great offensive year for the first 34gms of the season (34gms 7g 8a 15pts) before exploding at the end (14gms 8g 11a 19pts). It wasn't switching to center that did it. Ennis had already played 13gms at center leading up to the trade deadline and his production was so so(13gms 3g 4a 7pts). It was the acquisition of Hodgson and going with 3 scoring lines setup that got Ennis going offensively. He almost tripled his production at center in this set up.

Thats a setup Adam never got to play in but he may have a spot in future (likely on the wing). More so than a spot on a tradition 3rd line where is defensive play and lack of physicality would be bigger issues.


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07-01-2012, 01:46 AM
  #61
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
That 3 scoring line setup is how things will be for the foreseable future with Ruff behind the bench and with the centers on the roster and in the system. That matters and should be part of the discussion.

Take Ennis as an example. He is also a scoring line or bust type of player who's not physical and not very good defensively. While Ennis doesn't have the skating issues like Adam does, he does have a size issue(as it relates to 3rd line play).

Ennis wasn't having a great offensive year for the first 34gms of the season (34gms 7g 8a 15pts) before exploding at the end (14gms 8g 11a 19pts). It wasn't switching to center that did it. Ennis had already played 13gms at center leading up to the trade deadline and his production was so so(13gms 3g 4a 7pts). It was the acquisition of Hodgson and going with 3 scoring lines setup that got Ennis going offensively. He produced almsot 3x as many points at center than he did in his first 13gms at center.

Thats a setup Adam never got to play in but he may have a spot in future (likely on the wing). More so than a spot on a tradition 3rd line where is defensive play and lack of physicality would be bigger issues.
Sure, if we continue rolling 3 scoring lines then that gives 1 more line Adam has a chance to make. My main point is that, contrary to what the individual I was responding to said, Adam does not currently inspire any faith in his abilities to play in the 'traditional' style of 3rd line. He has the size to work to become that sort of player, but so far his weaknesses are an extremely poor fit.

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07-01-2012, 07:20 AM
  #62
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Originally Posted by 5 Minute Major View Post
Thank you, Mr. Obvious.

I guess young kids never lose confidence, or have a bad year, do they? Might as well throw him to the trash.
You ask for his opinion then you jump down his throat when you dont like it?

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07-01-2012, 09:18 AM
  #63
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Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
I'm well aware of how player usage charts are used. Considering I used Pommer and Adam for the example, are you actually going to argue Adam had a more prominent offensive role than Pommer?
We're talking about two different things here. A player can have a more prominent offensive role on the team while not being cast in the most offensive role on the team. Like you were saying before, it's percentages vs raw numbers. Jason Pominville has a more prominent offensive role on the team than Adam. However, we aren't talking about which player influenced the team's offense more, we're talking about what kind of role Adam was put in.

Quote:
Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
Also to argue Adam was used in such an overwhelmingly offensive role or that there was something unique about it is spinning the truth IMO.

Hecht 57.8%, Adam 57.7%, Ennis 57.5%, Stafford 55.1%, Leino 54.5%, Vanek 54.2%, Pommer 54%, Boyes 53.9%.

Hardly much of a difference.
I agree with you here, not an overwheling offensive role by any stretch. Lindy Ruff does not utilize zone-starts the way some coaches do. Alain Vigneault has players as high at 75+% ozone starts and as low as 30% ozone starts. Ruff doesn't do that. So no, Adam was certainly not cast in an overwhelming offensive role, but he was cast in one of the more offensive roles on the team.

Quote:
Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
I also had an issue with issue with how jfb expressed your point. Quoting jfb ... but he (Adam) was given ............the most offensive zone starts of anyone on the team

He didn't say the highest percentage of offensive zone starts. He said the most offensive zone starts. Thats simple not the case. Its not the case in percentage either.

Then he tried to argue he was talking about a specific time frame. Considering your article doesn't break down the offensive zone starts by specific game blocks. Although it does it for production but not percentage of zone starts. That percentage of 57.7% is based on his entire season. So jfb is either making something up or misunderstood your point.
Yes, you're right here. But I think it was more semantics. He didn't have the most offensive zone starts of anyone on the team. If you want to consider the difference of 0.1% in just 22 games of Hecht, then I guess he didn't have the highest ozone start % either. But that number for Hecht is pretty insignificant for me.

Quote:
Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
The demotion happened primarily because he sucked defensively. If he held his own in that regard, Ruff likely would have given him longer to bounce back offensively.
That was definitely part of it, but the demotion wouldn't of happened either way if the offense was still there. I'm just saying many (not saying you) give Adam a pass on this season as if he were the victim of a mysterious Lindy Ruff line juggle. Adam earned that demotion.

Quote:
Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
You're using Relative Corsi Quality of Teammates which is the average of the relative Corsi of teammates, weighted by ice time together. That is completely misleading when you look at the Sabres' relative Corsi numbers.

The relative Corsi numbers for the Sabres forwards that played at least 20gms

1. McCormick ---> 8.6
2. Leino --------> 7.7
3. Roy ----------> 5.4
4. Ellis ----------> 4.2
5. Stafford -----> 4.2
6. Adam --------> 3.3
7. Boyes -------> 1.9
8. Pommer ------> 0.2
9. Hecht -------> -0.2
10. Gerbe ------> -1.5
11. Ennis -------> -2.2
12. Kaleta ------> -2.7
13. Vanek ------> -4.4


How is having a higher average with this group, as ranked, mean you played with the highest quality teammates? That stat is WAY off the mark.
It's the same exact formula as quality of competition, only using linemates instead of opposition. Not a perfect system but no worse than CorsiRelQOC which is pretty universally accepted.


Quote:
Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
He was put in a position he wasn't ready for, a #1 scoring line center. Once that became obvious, his ice time was cut and so was the offensive caliber of his linemates.


Here is ice time/shifts for Adam in the four 13gm blocks from your blog.

Gms 1-13 ----> 15mins/19.5 shifts
Gms 14-26 ---> 11:45/12.8 shifts
Gms 27-39 ---> 12:30/16.6 ( I believe we had some injuries and thats why his ice time spiked a bit here)
Gms 40-52 ---> 10:15/14

Just passing this info along since I think this helps give further context to the data you already put forth. Nice job with that blog post/article btw.
Like I said, I will never bash Adam for what happened after the demotion. I suppose even playing those minutes with the linemates he had, he should've been able to atleast post a couple of points instead of being shut out in his final 21 games. However, like I said, I don't take issue with that.

After the first 11 games, he really did not score at all even while his linemates were still carrying the offense.

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07-01-2012, 09:49 AM
  #64
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Originally Posted by Buffalo87 View Post
We're talking about two different things here. A player can have a more prominent offensive role on the team while not being cast in the most offensive role on the team. Like you were saying before, it's percentages vs raw numbers. Jason Pominville has a more prominent offensive role on the team than Adam. However, we aren't talking about which player influenced the team's offense more, we're talking about what kind of role Adam was put in.



I agree with you here, not an overwheling offensive role by any stretch. Lindy Ruff does not utilize zone-starts the way some coaches do. Alain Vigneault has players as high at 75+% ozone starts and as low as 30% ozone starts. Ruff doesn't do that. So no, Adam was certainly not cast in an overwhelming offensive role, but he was cast in one of the more offensive roles on the team.



Yes, you're right here. But I think it was more semantics. He didn't have the most offensive zone starts of anyone on the team. If you want to consider the difference of 0.1% in just 22 games of Hecht, then I guess he didn't have the highest ozone start % either. But that number for Hecht is pretty insignificant for me.



That was definitely part of it, but the demotion wouldn't of happened either way if the offense was still there. I'm just saying many (not saying you) give Adam a pass on this season as if he were the victim of a mysterious Lindy Ruff line juggle. Adam earned that demotion.



It's the same exact formula as quality of competition, only using linemates instead of opposition. Not a perfect system but no worse than CorsiRelQOC which is pretty universally accepted.




Like I said, I will never bash Adam for what happened after the demotion. I suppose even playing those minutes with the linemates he had, he should've been able to atleast post a couple of points instead of being shut out in his final 21 games. However, like I said, I don't take issue with that.

After the first 11 games, he really did not score at all even while his linemates were still carrying the offense.
First off, nice job with your blog post that this info is from. It was well research and thought out. I posted this sentiment earlier but think it got lost in my rambling responses.


As for Adam, I think he was put into a spot he wasn't ready for yet (#1 line scoring center). I don't think it was done with the idea of lets throw him in the deep water and see if he can swim. It was just the way things played out in camp with his strong preseason and injuries to centers. A big reason he wasn't ready was due to his poor defensive play. From the get go Ruff was doing a crazy balancing act with him and his linemates. They usually didn't play the same amount at ES and many times Pommer would take faceoffs or cover the defensive role for that line. Basically doing things the center should have been doing. We got away with it for a bit because Adam was able to produce some offense early on.

But it was an unsustainable setup if Adam couldn't get his defensive game to a level where he could play as much as his linemates. Particularly when there were some injuries early among the forwards and most were struggling offensively. It led to Vanek/Pommer playing more. Adam couldn't play the minutes they were already playing at ES let alone get more ice time due to the issues among the forwards.

Adam would have been much better served coming up into a situation like we had at the end the season (last 14gms) with 3 scoring lines. If he was put on a lesser offensive line, it might have been what the doctor ordered. But circumstances were what they were.

The only thing I think was a bit unfair to Adam was keeping him up for as long as they did during the scoreless streak. I can't imagine that was too good for his confidence.


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07-01-2012, 10:04 AM
  #65
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Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
First off, nice job with your blog post that this info is from. It was well research and thought out. I posted this sentiment earlier but think it got lost in my rambling responses.
Haha thanks, I appreciate it.


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Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
As for Adam, I think he was put into a spot he wasn't ready for yet (#1 line scoring center). I don't think it was done with the idea of lets throw him in the deep water and see if he can swim. It was just the way things played out in camp with his strong preseason and injuries to centers. A big reason he wasn't ready was due to his poor defensive play. From the get go Ruff was doing a crazy balancing act with him and his linemates. They usually didn't play the same amount at ES and many times Pommer would take faceoffs or cover the defensive role for that line. Basically doing things the center should have been doing. We got away with it for a bit because Adam was able to produce some offense early on.

But it was an unsustainable setup if Adam couldn't get his defensive game to a level where he could play as much as his linemates. Particularly when there were some injuries early among the forwards and most were struggling offensively. It led to Vanek/Pommer playing more. Adam couldn't play the minutes they were already playing at ES let alone get more ice time due to the issues among the forwards.

Adam would have been much better served coming up into a situation like we had at the end the season (last 14gms) with 3 scoring lines. If he was put on a lesser offensive line, it might have been what the doctor ordered. But circumstances were what they were.

The only thing I think was a bit unfair to Adam was keeping him up for as long as they did during the scoreless streak. I can't imagine that was too good for his confidence.
I completely agree with you final point here. He should've been sent down long before that. It was visible that his confidence was just completely shot, and as has been alluded to many times, that confidence wasn't about to be boosted playing 10-12 minutes with 3rd and 4th liners.

I agree that it was a questionable move putting him on the top line, it puts him in a great position to put up points but a lot of responsibility comes along with it that he wasn't quite ready for.

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07-01-2012, 10:06 AM
  #66
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Originally Posted by joshjull View Post
Adam would have been much better served coming up into a situation like we had at the end the season (last 14gms) with 3 scoring lines. If he was put on a lesser offensive line, it might have been what the doctor ordered. But circumstances were what they were.
TBH, there's every chance Adam would fit in snuggly on Ennis and Stafford's LW. Especially if he has improved his desire to play physically. The guy has a shot and really good instincts on how to use it.

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07-01-2012, 10:18 AM
  #67
JPurp26
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Adam has a lot of work to do in the A before even thinking about NHL opportunities

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