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Philadelphia Phillies (MLB): 2012 Regular Season (Utter-Lee Hopeless Part 2)

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07-04-2012, 07:28 PM
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Philadelphia Phillies (MLB): 2012 Regular Season (Utter-Lee Hopeless Part 2)

Well, it seems to be the sentiment of most that this season shall be a colossal failure, and who better to pin it on than this season's biggest disappointment and snake bitten hero, Clifton Phifer Lee?

Hopefully the drubbing of the Mets today and Lee's first win can turn this team around and be the spark they need to make a run. Or they'll flounder and die, and we'll lose Hamels. Here's to optimism!

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07-04-2012, 07:40 PM
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I like the title.

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07-05-2012, 12:42 AM
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i honestly don't think the phils are done yet. they've looked pretty horrendous the past few weeks, but were not even halfway thru through the season yet. if they can continue to get healthy and put things together offensively I can see them battling for a WC spot.

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07-05-2012, 05:56 AM
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i honestly don't think the phils are done yet. they've looked pretty horrendous the past few weeks, but were not even halfway thru through the season yet. if they can continue to get healthy and put things together offensively I can see them battling for a WC spot.
I think someone said the same thing a few weeks ago. This team is way too inconsistent. When they are hitting, the pitching is off. When pitching improves, they don't hit.

Best case scenario is that Howard's return inspires the team and maybe Rubin can get a good setup guy at the deadline.

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07-05-2012, 08:02 AM
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i honestly don't think the phils are done yet. they've looked pretty horrendous the past few weeks, but were not even halfway thru through the season yet. if they can continue to get healthy and put things together offensively I can see them battling for a WC spot.
Actually, they were halfway through the season 2 games ago. And the only way I see them battling for a playoff spot is if they can go on a sustained run, like an 11-1 or 10-2 stretch. And with this bullpen I can't see that happening. They need to pray for Halladay's quick return along with Howard's. Maybe then everyone gets a little more settled [i.e. Pence to 5-hole (or maybe 6 and Chooch stay 5), KK back as the long man] and they feel more comfortable. Even then I still don't see it happening. I'd like to, but I don't.

I gotta stop it with all the parentheses and elipses.

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07-05-2012, 08:30 AM
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They need to play .645 baseball the rest of the year to get to 88 wins...

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07-05-2012, 08:43 AM
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They need to play .645 baseball the rest of the year to get to 88 wins...
Aka: SELL SELL SELL!

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07-05-2012, 10:05 AM
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i honestly don't think the phils are done yet. they've looked pretty horrendous the past few weeks, but were not even halfway thru through the season yet. if they can continue to get healthy and put things together offensively I can see them battling for a WC spot.
Yes, we are.

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They need to play .645 baseball the rest of the year to get to 88 wins...
I see your optimism has finally dwindled. I'm already at the point where I'm scouring the rest of the league for prospects that we can get back in trades. Join me!

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07-05-2012, 10:18 AM
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Yes, we are.



I see your optimism has finally dwindled. I'm already at the point where I'm scouring the rest of the league for prospects that we can get back in trades. Join me!
Earlier in the year I said if they were 10 or more games back like 70-80 games in, then it'd be time to sell. Barring a ridiculous run before the trade deadline, they're gonna have to move a couple pieces.

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07-05-2012, 10:27 AM
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Earlier in the year I said if they were 10 or more games back like 70-80 games in, then it'd be time to sell. Barring a ridiculous run before the trade deadline, they're gonna have to move a couple pieces.
At least your optimism is infused with a healthy dose of realism. As much as it would be nice to re-sign Hamels (both from a practical and sentimental standpoint), I guess I'm in the minority in thinking it would be even better for the franchise to use him to replenish the pipeline with young up-and-coming prospects at positions of dire need. The future of the team depends on it, in my opinion. If the Rangers are willing to do a deal centered around Mike Olt, I hope Amaro is all over it.

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07-05-2012, 10:39 AM
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At least your optimism is infused with a healthy dose of realism. As much as it would be nice to re-sign Hamels (both from a practical and sentimental standpoint), I guess I'm in the minority in thinking it would be even better for the franchise to use him to replenish the pipeline with young up-and-coming prospects at positions of dire need. The future of the team depends on it, in my opinion. If the Rangers are willing to do a deal centered around Mike Olt, I hope Amaro is all over it.
The thing is though, with the new rules on draft pick compensation, is anyone going to give up a ton for him with the threat of him going to the Dodgers?

I'd like to, well not really but you know what I mean, move Lee. The problem again is what do you get. He has a NTC I believe, and people are going to try to devalue him because of that horrible return the Phils got for him the first time.

Victorino should be gone, and Blanton too. We'd get minor pieces back, but at least it'd be something.

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07-05-2012, 11:06 AM
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The thing is though, with the new rules on draft pick compensation, is anyone going to give up a ton for him with the threat of him going to the Dodgers?

I'd like to, well not really but you know what I mean, move Lee. The problem again is what do you get. He has a NTC I believe, and people are going to try to devalue him because of that horrible return the Phils got for him the first time.

Victorino should be gone, and Blanton too. We'd get minor pieces back, but at least it'd be something.
Given the Rangers desperation to win the World Series this year and Josh Hamilton possibly hitting the free agency market, I think they'd definitely give up a top prospect like Mike Olt, who's blocked at 3B by Beltre for the next three years, for Cole Hamels -- even if it's just for a few months and a playoff run. Victorino and Blanton won't return prospects who could be real pieces for the future, so it's whatever.

Selling low on Lee, especially with his contract and how his situation was handled the first time he was dealt, makes me uncomfortable. I say hold onto him and see how he is next year and how the team is. If he's pitching well and the team's sputtering again, that's the right time to trade him.

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07-05-2012, 11:18 AM
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Also, if it's possible to entice Cincinnati to take a chance on Victorino or even Polanco (looks like Rolen is done), I'd try to get Tony Cingrani. A guy like Billy Hamilton (101 SB in 80 GP to go with .322/.413/.439 in A+) won't be available for a rental, but Cingrani is a guy who should be in play. Cingrani's arm action is of concern and likely prohibits him from being a MLB starter, but he at least profiles as a great bullpen LHP.

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07-05-2012, 11:30 AM
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Given the Rangers desperation to win the World Series this year and Josh Hamilton possibly hitting the free agency market, I think they'd definitely give up a top prospect like Mike Olt, who's blocked at 3B by Beltre for the next three years, for Cole Hamels -- even if it's just for a few months and a playoff run. Victorino and Blanton won't return prospects who could be real pieces for the future, so it's whatever.

Selling low on Lee, especially with his contract and how his situation was handled the first time he was dealt, makes me uncomfortable. I say hold onto him and see how he is next year and how the team is. If he's pitching well and the team's sputtering again, that's the right time to trade him.
I was actually going to say that the whole thing doesn't have to be fixed in one trade deadline. They'll still have good pieces to move next year as well, and probably the year after.

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07-05-2012, 11:41 AM
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I was actually going to say that the whole thing doesn't have to be fixed in one trade deadline. They'll still have good pieces to move next year as well, and probably the year after.
Agreed. This can -- and should -- be a two-year, accelerated rebuild project.

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07-05-2012, 11:56 AM
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If they're still super out of it by the deadline, I'm fine shipping anyone not named Rollins, Utley, Howard, Chooch, Pence, Lee, Halladay, Hamels, Stutes and Papelbon.

Again, I blame this season on injuries, and see no reason the core can't compete next year. I also see it being an absolute necessity to not trade Hamels unless it's 100% guaranteed he won't sign.

Hamels said in an interview he's a loyal guy and appreciates everything the organization has done for him, and I see no reason to not believe him. Amaro also pulled him in for a meeting on Tuesday, and has adamantly stated he plans on getting him re-signed.

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07-05-2012, 12:16 PM
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If they're still super out of it by the deadline, I'm fine shipping anyone not named Rollins, Utley, Howard, Chooch, Pence, Lee, Halladay, Hamels, Stutes and Papelbon.
Well then be prepared to get absolutely nothing back for the future.

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07-05-2012, 12:19 PM
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Well then be prepared to get absolutely nothing back for the future.
I'm fine with that for now. Rebuild through drafting and signing people, like Gillick did. Drafted the core, picked off Werth, Victorino, Chooch, etc. to killer deals and made the most of their talent. Need to get back to this mentality, and since he's an adviser, it may be possible.

Ruben's ego will not allow him to go into a full rebuild, so I don't expect it in the least. Not saying it's the best option for longevity, but I think it's the option they'll be pursuing. I think it's a huge mistake losing Hamels. And I fully believe that with this group and a few tweaks, they can compete next year for the crown.

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07-05-2012, 12:28 PM
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If they're still super out of it by the deadline, I'm fine shipping anyone not named Rollins, Utley, Howard, Chooch, Pence, Lee, Halladay, Hamels, Stutes and Papelbon.
Hawhat?!?!?!?! Don't think you have to worry about him getting moved.

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07-05-2012, 12:29 PM
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Hawhat?!?!?!?! Don't think you have to worry about him getting moved.
Lol I was waiting for that, I just really like him, think he has good stuff. Plus he's worth more here than in a trade, since he's dead this year. Probably should have added Worley to that, since he's exactly what we need: cheap and skilled.

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07-05-2012, 12:37 PM
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Lol I was waiting for that, I just really like him, think he has good stuff. Plus he's worth more here than in a trade, since he's dead this year. Probably should have added Worley to that, since he's exactly what we need: cheap and skilled.
Yeah he has zero value now. He had a nice couple months last year, but flamed out at the end. We'll see what happens with him.

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07-05-2012, 01:05 PM
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I'm fine with that for now. Rebuild through drafting and signing people, like Gillick did. Drafted the core, picked off Werth, Victorino, Chooch, etc. to killer deals and made the most of their talent. Need to get back to this mentality, and since he's an adviser, it may be possible.

Ruben's ego will not allow him to go into a full rebuild, so I don't expect it in the least. Not saying it's the best option for longevity, but I think it's the option they'll be pursuing. I think it's a huge mistake losing Hamels. And I fully believe that with this group and a few tweaks, they can compete next year for the crown.
Pat Gillick wasn't here when the core was drafted. Ed Wade was -- though I think the current front office/scouting infrastructure has pretty much remained the same. Gillick just made some shrewd low risk/high reward additions to the core while also pulling the trigger on some horrendous trades (see: Gavin Floyd and Gio Gonzalez for Freddy Garcia). That's how it goes.

The team can start to commit more to the draft and start rebuilding that way, but baseball isn't like the other three major sports. It'll be at least three years before you start seeing any returns from the rebuild-through-the-draft approach.

I'd share more of your optimism about keeping this group together and making a few tweaks for next year... if this group hadn't been slowly eroding in quality for three years now. You can point to last season's 102 wins, but that team, as it proved against the Cardinals, was overrated and fattened up on the bad teams while struggling against the top contenders and good starting pitchers.

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07-05-2012, 01:10 PM
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Pat Gillick wasn't here when the core was drafted. Ed Wade was -- though I think the current front office/scouting infrastructure has pretty much remained the same. Gillick just made some shrewd low risk/high reward additions to the core while also pulling the trigger on some horrendous trades (see: Gavin Floyd and Gio Gonzalez for Freddy Garcia). That's how it goes.

The team can start to commit more to the draft and start rebuilding that way, but baseball isn't like the other three major sports. It'll be at least three years before you start seeing any returns from the rebuild-through-the-draft approach.

I'd share more of your optimism about keeping this group together and making a few tweaks for next year... if this group hadn't been slowly eroding in quality for three years now. You can point to last season's 102 wins, but that team, as it proved against the Cardinals, was overrated and fattened up on the bad teams while struggling against the top contenders and good starting pitchers.
You're right, I screwed up on the GM. And yea he wasn't perfect but his cheap acquisitions that paid huge dividends were integral to their success.

And I know the draft takes a while to pay off, but I give this team 2-3 year window with the current core. I do see what you're saying about the erosion, I guess I'm just an eternal optimist and I'm looking at what could happen, and feel that we could make another run.

And you're absolutely correct about the bloated stats last year, but still, they did break 100, that's not easy to do.

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07-05-2012, 01:25 PM
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Pat Gillick wasn't here when the core was drafted. Ed Wade was -- though I think the current front office/scouting infrastructure has pretty much remained the same. Gillick just made some shrewd low risk/high reward additions to the core while also pulling the trigger on some horrendous trades (see: Gavin Floyd and Gio Gonzalez for Freddy Garcia). That's how it goes.

The team can start to commit more to the draft and start rebuilding that way, but baseball isn't like the other three major sports. It'll be at least three years before you start seeing any returns from the rebuild-through-the-draft approach.

I'd share more of your optimism about keeping this group together and making a few tweaks for next year... if this group hadn't been slowly eroding in quality for three years now. You can point to last season's 102 wins, but that team, as it proved against the Cardinals, was overrated and fattened up on the bad teams while struggling against the top contenders and good starting pitchers.
It'll be longer than that, especially if they're out of high school, and especially with how the Phils never bring anyone up until they're 25.

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07-05-2012, 01:28 PM
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It'll be longer than that, especially if they're out of high school, and especially with how the Phils never bring anyone up until they're 25.
Hence the "at least" caveat. I was trying to be, how you say, optimistic.

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