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Dubnyk signs for 2 years @ 3.5M Cap Hit

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07-05-2012, 11:10 PM
  #301
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I like Dubnyk, but I don't like this deal.

He's about 1-1.5 mil/year overpaid. If he can't establish himself as a legitimate starter this year, he's going to be a Khabibulin-like overpaid backup next year.

That being said, his agent definitely backed the Oilers into a corner. There is absolutely nothing left in the free agent market (unless the team wants to roll with Dan Ellis or Brent Johnson), and the goalies that are on the trading block are all way more overpriced than Dubnyk. The two year deal is good for both the team and Dubie - if he can't live up to the contract, the Oilers walk; if he does, Dubie is in for a payday (and I doubt the Oilers will mind paying for it).

Also, can we please stop comparing the Dubnyk deal to the Bernier/Harding deals? While it's nice to fantasize about how much better those players are than Dubnyk, both of them will be backups this year.

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07-05-2012, 11:11 PM
  #302
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Originally Posted by oilfaninvan View Post
I think dubey probably wanted more years but took the higher salary to do just 2 years? I dunno, it's weird.
Or conversely maybe he wanted a one year deal (he's eligible for UFA next year) so maybe the Oilers over paid a bit to buy one year of free agency.

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07-05-2012, 11:11 PM
  #303
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Originally Posted by DousedInOil View Post
Except that Harding is a backup. He is getting paid 55% of what Dubnyk is getting paid because he will probably play 55% of the games that Dubnyk plays. Last year he was 23rd in shots against and will now be the 22nd highest paid goaltender in the league. Seems pretty accurate to me.
47 games played is not what one expects from a starter. Until Dubnyk shows some legitimate consistency he's nothing more than a back-up on a team that doesn't have a legit starter.

Devan Dubnyk pulled this exact stunt the season prior. Was bad for the first 2/3rds of the season and then was lights out to end the year. He had most of us convinced that he had turned the corner. This year rolls around and the exact same thing happens.

I'm not as easily convinced the second time.

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07-05-2012, 11:11 PM
  #304
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Originally Posted by Spawn View Post
Too much money for a goalie who hasn't proven he can be a starter. How the hell can the Oilers justify 3.5M for Dubnyk when you look in our division and see Harding getting 1.9 and he was a UFA. Bad contract. Hopefully Dubnyk can actually be consistent for more than a 20 game stretch to end the year.

The Petry deal sort of makes up for it. His contract is pretty stellar at least.
you must be howling at the Schneider contract! What an overpayment for a 68 game goaltender....

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07-05-2012, 11:15 PM
  #305
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3.5 might be a tad overpayment

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07-05-2012, 11:34 PM
  #306
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I'm not sure what all the fuss is really. It's a comparable contract to what other goaltenders at his level are making.

Cam Ward $6.4 M
Antti Niemi $4.0 M
Craig Anderson $3.0 this year (3.5 M next)
Evgeni Nabokov $2.75 M

He's the future in the net with this club at the moment. I believe that he's giving up a year of UFA status. I don't think that it's such a huge overpay really...Well, they all make too much ****ing money.

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07-05-2012, 11:40 PM
  #307
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I think that Varlamov is a good comparable. The Avalanche are paying him 2.8 per over the next two seasons and his numbers are almost a mirror image of Dubnyk's on a markedly *cough* superior hockey team.

And we didn't have to lose a top 15 draft pick for our guy. So there's that...

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07-05-2012, 11:41 PM
  #308
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Moonlapse Vertigo View Post
Fair enough, but again, the NHL considers his 11/12 record to be 20-20-3 so yeah, that's what it was.
I don't want to beat a dead horse with you, but this is something that bothers me so I want to get it out there for the record.

The NHL is misleading fans, who are by and large pretty gullible, and I think they do it on purpose because clearly there's been no effort to correct people when they mistake points percentage for winning percentage. And I think the media have embraced it, because what's good for the NHL is good for the NHL media. 3 point games and using point percentages instead of win percentages, where in the vast majority of teams in the NHL are at or better that ".500", misleads a lot of casual fans into thinking that their team is performing better than it is. And that's good for the NHL, and that's good for interest. If 50% of the teams in the NHL had sub .500 records, then for virtually every American city in the NHL that falls into this category, that would mean fans tuning out their local team and turning to basketball or football or whatever. It's a marketing ploy and it's a damn good one, because people generally tend to think ".500 is the line between a team doing well and a team doing poorly" and when they hear their team is .500 they think "awesome my team is doing good, they're in the mix for the playoffs". If the NHL is able to mislead fans of sub-par teams into thinking their team is doing okay, the NHL stands to make more money, and here they've found a very ingenious way of doing it. The target demographic for the NHL is generally pretty bad a math, unfortunately, and even here where many fans would consider themselves pretty hardcore, there are people everywhere who are throwing around stats like ".500" and "nearly .500", except the stats they're using are ones where ".500" has absolutely no meaning or significance. In the "bonus point" system, ".600" is the new ".500", we should be saying "Dubnyk sucks because he's way below .600".


So, long story short, "what the NHL says" is worthless, they have an agenda to make things seem better than they are to as many people as possible, to keep you interested.

The truth is, if you're actually interested in a representation of the Oilers success with Dubnyk in the net, Dubnyk's record would be posted as either 20-23, or "15-21-5-2" (wins, losses, shootout wins, shootout losses).


Last edited by stratedge: 07-05-2012 at 11:54 PM.
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07-05-2012, 11:41 PM
  #309
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dobiezeke View Post
you must be howling at the Schneider contract! What an overpayment for a 68 game goaltender....
A) Lets not kid ourselves, Dubnyk is no Schneider. and B) What do I get upset for if Vancouver overpays for a goalie? More the better for the Oilers.

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07-05-2012, 11:45 PM
  #310
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Originally Posted by stratedge View Post
I don't want to beat a dead horse with you, but this is something that bothers me so I want to get it out there for the record.

The NHL is misleading fans, who are by and large pretty gullible, and I think they do it on purpose because clearly there's been no effort to correct people when they mistake points percentage for winning percentage. And I think the media have embraced it, because what's good for the NHL is good for the NHL media. 3 point games and using point percentages instead of win percentages, where in the vast majority of teams in the NHL are at or better that ".500", misleads a lot of casual fans into thinking that their team is performing better than it is. And that's good for the NHL, and that's good for interest. If 50% of the teams in the NHL had sub .500 records, then for virtually every American city in the NHL, that would mean fans tuning out their local team and turning to basketball or football or whatever. It's a marketing ploy and it's a damn good one, because people generally tend to think ".500 is the line between a team doing well and a team doing poorly" and when they hear their team is .500 they think "awesome my team is doing good, they're in the mix for the playoffs". If the NHL is able to mislead fans of sub-par teams into thinking their team is doing okay, the NHL stands to make more money, and here they've found a very ingenious way of doing it. The target demographic for the NHL is generally pretty bad a math, unfortunately, and even here where many fans would consider themselves pretty hardcore, there are people everywhere who are throwing around stats like ".500" and "nearly .500", except the stats they're using are ones where ".500" has absolutely no meaning or significance. In the "bonus point" system, ".600" is the new ".500", we should be saying "Dubnyk sucks because he's way below .600".


So, long story short, "what the NHL says" is worthless, they have an agenda to make things seem better than they are to as many people as possible, to keep you interested.

The truth is, if you're actually interested in a representation of the Oilers success with Dubnyk in the net, Dubnyk's record would be posted as either 20-23, or "15-21-5-2" (wins, losses, shootout wins, shootout losses).
Well - and I'm really going off the board here - the LA Kings probably made the playoffs on the strength of the NHL's goofy ass parity obsesssed "it looks better than it actually is" philosophy.

This is the way it is now. I don't particularly like it either.

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07-05-2012, 11:47 PM
  #311
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Originally Posted by Spawn View Post
A) Lets not kid ourselves, Dubnyk is no Schneider. and B) What do I get upset for if Vancouver overpays for a goalie? More the better for the Oilers.
Devil's advocate - what has Schneider done? 68 games in the NHL...handful of games in the playoffs. He has proven nothing over a full season. James Reimer was touted as the savior of TO with the same limited number of games played.

I agree...love the goalie debacle in Vancouver.

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07-05-2012, 11:57 PM
  #312
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stratedge View Post
I don't want to beat a dead horse with you, but this is something that bothers me so I want to get it out there for the record.

The NHL is misleading fans, who are by and large pretty gullible, and I think they do it on purpose because clearly there's been no effort to correct people when they mistake points percentage for winning percentage. And I think the media have embraced it, because what's good for the NHL is good for the NHL media. 3 point games and using point percentages instead of win percentages, where in the vast majority of teams in the NHL are at or better that ".500", misleads a lot of casual fans into thinking that their team is performing better than it is. And that's good for the NHL, and that's good for interest. If 50% of the teams in the NHL had sub .500 records, then for virtually every American city in the NHL that falls into this category, that would mean fans tuning out their local team and turning to basketball or football or whatever. It's a marketing ploy and it's a damn good one, because people generally tend to think ".500 is the line between a team doing well and a team doing poorly" and when they hear their team is .500 they think "awesome my team is doing good, they're in the mix for the playoffs". If the NHL is able to mislead fans of sub-par teams into thinking their team is doing okay, the NHL stands to make more money, and here they've found a very ingenious way of doing it. The target demographic for the NHL is generally pretty bad a math, unfortunately, and even here where many fans would consider themselves pretty hardcore, there are people everywhere who are throwing around stats like ".500" and "nearly .500", except the stats they're using are ones where ".500" has absolutely no meaning or significance. In the "bonus point" system, ".600" is the new ".500", we should be saying "Dubnyk sucks because he's way below .600".


So, long story short, "what the NHL says" is worthless, they have an agenda to make things seem better than they are to as many people as possible, to keep you interested.

The truth is, if you're actually interested in a representation of the Oilers success with Dubnyk in the net, Dubnyk's record would be posted as either 20-23, or "15-21-5-2" (wins, losses, shootout wins, shootout losses).
These are great posts and it needs to be stated more often apparently. Although I'm sure goalies benefit in the crazy skewed win loss column that is NHL stats. Its BS, and always has been BS. They count OT wins, but not OTL, makes no sense.

Of course the NHL is doing this on purpose because then fans of 20something different teams in a 30 team league can pretend they are .500 or better. Its statistical nonsense. .500 as a number infers mean. With the NHL it isn't.

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07-05-2012, 11:58 PM
  #313
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Originally Posted by Moonlapse Vertigo View Post
Well - and I'm really going off the board here - the LA Kings probably made the playoffs on the strength of the NHL's goofy ass parity obsesssed "it looks better than it actually is" philosophy.

This is the way it is now. I don't particularly like it either.
You misunderstand my point I think. I'm not against the point being given out. The Kings made the playoffs because they were in the top 8 in points, and that's what's all about.

I'm just trying to eliminate this notion that ".500" = "average". It used to be, but it's not anymore. .500 is your average winning percentage in every league, because every time 1 team wins a game, another team loses a game... you add them all up, and everyone comes out .500 on average. People have this notion built into their heads because that's how it works in every other sport that doesn't have ties (basketball, football, and now hockey).

However, .500 no longer means average... .500 is now the watermark in the NHL for "your team sucks and is going to miss the play-offs for sure". So, when people start throwing it around like it's evidence that a team is average, or a goalie is average, it really irks me. It shows that the person throwing that out there doesn't get it, and is buying into a misconstrued image of reality.

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07-06-2012, 12:02 AM
  #314
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I'm not sure what all the fuss is really. It's a comparable contract to what other goaltenders at his level are making.

Cam Ward $6.4 M
Antti Niemi $4.0 M
Craig Anderson $3.0 this year (3.5 M next)
Evgeni Nabokov $2.75 M

He's the future in the net with this club at the moment. I believe that he's giving up a year of UFA status. I don't think that it's such a huge overpay really...Well, they all make too much ****ing money.
really? Dubnyk hasnt even solidified himself as a starter.. comparing him to Ward and Neimi who signed their contracts after winning the stanley cup is absurd.
No matter how you twist things.. Dubnyk will be overpaid by atleast a million\yr

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07-06-2012, 12:05 AM
  #315
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Originally Posted by Petro Points View Post
really? Dubnyk hasnt even solidified himself as a starter.. comparing him to Ward and Neimi who signed their contracts after winning the stanley cup is absurd.
No matter how you twist things.. Dubnyk will be overpaid by atleast a million\yr
Schneider...

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07-06-2012, 12:12 AM
  #316
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No, I understand your point just fine. I agree that the NHL's ".500" isn't the true .500 anymore or a benchmark for proper success or a playoff birth... but I'm struggling to think of a goaltender out there who would do better on this... silly Steve Tambellini built team at this juncture. Like I mentioned earlier, Dubnyk's agent had a lot of ammunition to take into the negotiations and the Oilers don't have a lot of goaltending options.

It's not ideal, but whatever. It doesn't affect the Oilers' cap situation one iota and if he sucks we walk away in 2014. Fix the *******, defence, Tambellini.

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07-06-2012, 12:15 AM
  #317
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Originally Posted by dobiezeke View Post
Schneider...
have you seen him play? or checked his stats? Schnieder is good enough to make Luongo expendable. Dubnyk could clear waivers if he struggles in the first week of next season. It was a toss up between DD and JDD not too long ago.

20-8-1 1.96GAA 0.937 save%

20-20-3 2.67GAA 0.914save%

hardly comparable.

3.5M for DD is too much

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07-06-2012, 12:17 AM
  #318
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I'm not denying his ability but I'd like to see Cory Schneider's numbers if he were an Oiler in 10/11 and 11/12.

Bottomline, yeah, Dubnyk is overpaid over the next two years but Tambiman has to improve the damn team playing in front of him.

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07-06-2012, 12:18 AM
  #319
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Originally Posted by Petro Points View Post
have you seen him play? or checked his stats? Schnieder is good enough to make Luongo expendable. Dubnyk could clear waivers if he struggles in the first week of next season. It was a toss up between DD and JDD not too long ago.

20-8-1 1.96GAA 0.937 save%

20-20-3 2.67GAA 0.914save%

hardly comparable.

3.5M for DD is too much
Watched him play his whole AHL career...great goalie.

He has played a grand total of 68 games in the NHL....If he was an Oiler the braintrust of HFOIL would have freaked out that he was signed to the deal he was given.

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07-06-2012, 12:22 AM
  #320
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It's more money than he should probably be getting, but in the end it likely doesn't matter.

If by the end of this contract, he has proven to be a legitimate #1 goalie then he'll be worth the money and probably get another contract at market price. If he doesn't prove to be a legitimate starter after two years, I don't see them bringing him back no matter what the current cap hit is.

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07-06-2012, 12:25 AM
  #321
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07-06-2012, 12:30 AM
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After having had some time to think about it...

Given that the Oilers have a lot of cap room, I don't think that Dubnyk's salary mattered all that much versus cap space since the Oilers are not a cap team.

That said, giving him the salary that they did was a more a statement than anything else. A statement that Dubnyk is the number one goaltender for this team, no questions asked. I think it was done for Dubnyk's confidence, for Ralph (it was all too easy for Renney to slip back into playing Khabibulin night after night last season) and for Dubnyk's Oilers teammates as well.

It was a calculated move, a risk which, if it doesn't pay off after two seasons, the team can cut ties. If it doesn't pay off after one season, the team can get a goaltender next summer as well since Khabibulin will be off the books.

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07-06-2012, 12:33 AM
  #323
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Want to know why Dubnyk was overpaid?



I believe that the Oilers thought it a strong possibility that Dubnyk might be presented with an offer sheet, and the thought of losing a young starter for a 2nd rounder was too much to handle. This is further supported by the short length of the deal, one that takes him to UFA status; if management expected him to be a long-term solution, the deal would have reflected that.
not sure what that has to do with Dubnyk's contract. Unless the Oilers found out that he was about to sign a 3.3M offersheet from another team.

Oh well it is done.. hopefully this contract does not kill his career.

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07-06-2012, 12:35 AM
  #324
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I just hate when a guy gets overpaid because he will always want more. If Dubnyk shows some improvement after two years, he will want >3.5M a year because his starting point was so high. He will never get a decrease. Hopefully he really improves and we all want to give him a raise in two years.

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07-06-2012, 12:36 AM
  #325
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http://capgeek.com/comparables.php?s...012&player=273

....and that is just a quick comparable. Terrible contract for that price.

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