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Will the Wild get ANY of the Big Three UFA's?

View Poll Results: Which of the Big Three UFA's will the Wild sign?
Are you kidding? They don't want to come here! 18 38.30%
Parise 8 17.02%
Suter 9 19.15%
Schultz 0 0%
Pfft! Only ONE? They're getting all THREE! 12 25.53%
Voters: 47. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
07-05-2012, 11:39 PM
  #251
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Jan Itor View Post
Squidz, is there anything even remotely foreseeable that would cause the cap do drop somewhat dramatically, say, $8-$10 million (not related to a CBA re-structure)?
Anything that's even likely? No. While a work stoppage would harm revenues, a lot of league revenues are tied up in a long term TV deal from NBC, and even with a lockout, attendance in Canada as well as for NYR wouldn't be meaningfully harmed. A work stoppage could lead to a small dip in the cap, but probably not a 10%+ drop.

The only other thing I could see dropping the cap would be contraction. However, that's such a minute possibility that it's hardly worth mentioning. More likely, even if there's further hard times for some franchises, a relocation to a place like Houston, QC, or Hamilton for a team like Phoenix would cause an increase to the cap. A relocation to a place like Seattle or KC wouldn't likely make a major change either direction as while initial revenues would be on the lower side for the league average, any relocated team would likely be a low revenue producer, so it would have minimal impact.

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07-05-2012, 11:43 PM
  #252
Dr Jan Itor
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Makes sense. Good times.

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07-05-2012, 11:46 PM
  #253
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raising the percentage of revenues that go to the players would probably lower the cap. but since thats the exact opposite of what the owners want i don't see that happening.

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07-05-2012, 11:50 PM
  #254
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There are a couple other upward pressures on the cap too. Florida's strong run, as well as new marketing campaigns should improve their revenue meaningfully. Dallas was abnormally bad for revenue because of their owner going bankrupt (unrelated to the team) and subsequently the team had absolutely no marketing or promotions while being run by an intermediary. The new ownership has taken things over strongly, brought in a bunch of big name talent, revitalized their marketing, and the team's not likely to be fighting a World Series run to start the season. Finally, I believe the HNIC contract is up very soon (not sure which year though) and with an additional Canadian team, and rumors that CBC might finally lose the bidding to another channel whose name eludes me (CTV maybe?) prospects are good for that being a higher paying deal than the last.

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07-05-2012, 11:59 PM
  #255
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Originally Posted by rynryn View Post
raising the percentage of revenues that go to the players would probably lower the cap. but since thats the exact opposite of what the owners want i don't see that happening.
To the contrary, lowering the players' percentage would lower the cap, but that's the CBA structure I was avoiding. Currently, the players receive 57% of HRR. The owners would like to get that down to 50%. Such a huge jump seems unlikely, so I'd expect something near the middle, between 52% and 54% if I had to guess. As for how large that impact would be, ignoring changes to the method of calculating the cap, a 52% split would leave the cap just under $65MM if I remember correctly.

However, with 4 teams over that figure already, and a fifth guaranteed to top it before the season starts, I'd expect any change in HRR sharing would see some form of cap relief. That could come in the form of amnesty, buyout, or rollback. However, it could also come in the form of a new cap calculation method. Currently there is no such thing as the "cap ceiling" or "cap floor." What actually happens is there is a "salary midpoint" which is 57% of league total HRR. Teams are allowed to deviate up to $8MM from the midpoint, which is where the ceiling and floor concepts come from. If the CBA were to drop the player share to a smaller figure, it's possible that calculation could be changed to result in a similar cap. A straight $10MM range or $12MM range would be opposed by the players however, as that would probably require an increase in their escrow amounts. Instead, I can see the midpoint becoming offset, with the ceiling some say $10MM above it, but the floor $16MM below. That would likely offset the necessary increases in escrow rates.

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07-06-2012, 12:10 AM
  #256
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Quote:
Originally Posted by squidz View Post
To the contrary, lowering the players' percentage would lower the cap, but that's the CBA structure I was avoiding. Currently, the players receive 57% of HRR. The owners would like to get that down to 50%. Such a huge jump seems unlikely, so I'd expect something near the middle, between 52% and 54% if I had to guess. As for how large that impact would be, ignoring changes to the method of calculating the cap, a 52% split would leave the cap just under $65MM if I remember correctly.

However, with 4 teams over that figure already, and a fifth guaranteed to top it before the season starts, I'd expect any change in HRR sharing would see some form of cap relief. That could come in the form of amnesty, buyout, or rollback. However, it could also come in the form of a new cap calculation method. Currently there is no such thing as the "cap ceiling" or "cap floor." What actually happens is there is a "salary midpoint" which is 57% of league total HRR. Teams are allowed to deviate up to $8MM from the midpoint, which is where the ceiling and floor concepts come from. If the CBA were to drop the player share to a smaller figure, it's possible that calculation could be changed to result in a similar cap. A straight $10MM range or $12MM range would be opposed by the players however, as that would probably require an increase in their escrow amounts. Instead, I can see the midpoint becoming offset, with the ceiling some say $10MM above it, but the floor $16MM below. That would likely offset the necessary increases in escrow rates.
They could do a tick down... If the goal is to get the cap ceiling down 5%, they could roll with the 57% in 2012-13, down to 54.5% in 13-14, and 52% in 14-15. With the way revenues have increased and the cap has gone up, the cap ceiling should stay relatively stable over those 3 seasons.

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Old
07-06-2012, 12:26 AM
  #257
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Heater would be an amazing asset once he takes a pay cut. Hope we find a way to keep him around
If he can get back to 30-30 form, I wouldn't be opposed to re-signing him for 2-3 years at a 4-5 million cap hit.

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07-06-2012, 12:28 AM
  #258
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Originally Posted by WILDhockeyfan View Post
If he can get back to 30-30 form, I wouldn't be opposed to re-signing him for 2-3 years at a 4-5 million cap hit.
I have this thought of a Heatley - Brodziak - Bulmer 3rd line, three years down the road. I think it could work.

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07-06-2012, 12:32 AM
  #259
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I have this thought of a Heatley - Brodziak - Bulmer 3rd line, three years down the road. I think it could work.
I was more thinking he takes Bouchard's spot on the 2nd line, assuming Butch is gone or worse, retired. A few years from now maybe:

Parise - Koivu - Coyle
Heater - Granlund - Seto

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07-06-2012, 12:37 AM
  #260
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WILDhockeyfan View Post
I was more thinking he takes Bouchard's spot on the 2nd line, assuming Butch is gone or worse, retired. A few years from now maybe:

Parise - Koivu - Coyle
Heater - Granlund - Seto
A few years from now I fully expect Granlund to jump up to being the team's #1 center.

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Old
07-06-2012, 12:51 AM
  #261
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I certainly wouldn't be penciling in Coyle's name for the 13-14 roster's 1st line. If he makes the team (and that is certainly still an "if" at this point) I imagine he'd start on the second line.

Heatley on a third line eventually has an intriguing quality.

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07-06-2012, 12:56 AM
  #262
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Quote:
Originally Posted by squidz View Post
I certainly wouldn't be penciling in Coyle's name for the 13-14 roster's 1st line. If he makes the team (and that is certainly still an "if" at this point) I imagine he'd start on the second line.

Heatley on a third line eventually has an intriguing quality.
Fine then:

Parise - Koivu - Heater
Seto - Granlund - Coyle

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07-06-2012, 09:27 AM
  #263
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Answer: yes.

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