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Dubnyk signs for 2 years @ 3.5M Cap Hit

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Old
07-06-2012, 01:37 AM
  #326
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Originally Posted by stratedge View Post
You misunderstand my point I think. I'm not against the point being given out. The Kings made the playoffs because they were in the top 8 in points, and that's what's all about.

I'm just trying to eliminate this notion that ".500" = "average". It used to be, but it's not anymore. .500 is your average winning percentage in every league, because every time 1 team wins a game, another team loses a game... you add them all up, and everyone comes out .500 on average. People have this notion built into their heads because that's how it works in every other sport that doesn't have ties (basketball, football, and now hockey).

However, .500 no longer means average... .500 is now the watermark in the NHL for "your team sucks and is going to miss the play-offs for sure". So, when people start throwing it around like it's evidence that a team is average, or a goalie is average, it really irks me. It shows that the person throwing that out there doesn't get it, and is buying into a misconstrued image of reality.
Or that they do not count beans like some people do.

I totally agree with this and your last post. Thanks for that. As a non numbers guy, it didn't even occur to me that the average was so scewed.


Last edited by Dorian2: 07-06-2012 at 01:46 AM.
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07-06-2012, 01:39 AM
  #327
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Originally Posted by Mr Bugg View Post
Want to know why Dubnyk was overpaid?



I believe that the Oilers thought it a strong possibility that Dubnyk might be presented with an offer sheet, and the thought of losing a young starter for a 2nd rounder was too much to handle. This is further supported by the short length of the deal, one that takes him to UFA status; if management expected him to be a long-term solution, the deal would have reflected that.
Not sure what you are getting at here. The Oilers would match any reasonable offersheet that Dubnyk would sign.

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07-06-2012, 01:44 AM
  #328
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Originally Posted by Insta View Post
Not sure what you are getting at here. The Oilers would match any reasonable offersheet that Dubnyk would sign.
lets just pretend that his agent told Tambo that DD is about to sign an offersheet for 3.3M x 2yrs. Compensation of a 2nd rounder.

Tambo turned around and signed him for 200K more.

In any case, with this signing the Oilers finally hit the cap floor with only Gagner left to sign.

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07-06-2012, 01:46 AM
  #329
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Originally Posted by Dorian2 View Post
Or that they do not count beans like some people do.

I titally agree with this and your last post. Thanks for that. As a non numbers guy, it didn't even occur to me that the average was so scewed.
Quoted before the edit.

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07-06-2012, 01:47 AM
  #330
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Originally Posted by Petro Points View Post
lets just pretend that his agent told Tambo that DD is about to sign an offersheet for 3.3M x 2yrs. Compensation of a 2nd rounder.

Tambo turned around and signed him for 200K more.

In any case, with this signing the Oilers finally hit the cap floor with only Gagner left to sign.
And you have nothing to support your opinion...

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07-06-2012, 01:48 AM
  #331
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This almost reminds me of the 08-09 Blackhawks situation where the 'Hawks signed Cristobal Huet to $5 million per season with Khabibulin still on the team (but in the last year of his contract).

Khabibulin proceeded to have an unreal season and lead the 'Hawks to the third round of the playoffs. It will be interesting to see what the Oilers' declaration of Dubnyk does to Khabibulin and whether he has one more run in him. A good season from Khabi could at the very least get the Oilers something at the deadline. Maybe something along the lines of the Tom Gilbert-for-Salo deal.

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07-06-2012, 01:48 AM
  #332
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Old
07-06-2012, 01:53 AM
  #333
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Originally Posted by Mr Bugg View Post
But at what term? Do you handcuff yourself by matching DD @ $3.3K for four years not knowing what he's going to be, or do you control his destiny for a two-year window that helps you better evaluate your financial position at the end of it?
You are just making things up. If there was some magical 4 year deal at 3.3m/year for Dubnyk, there is no way he turns that down so he can sign a 2 year deal.

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07-06-2012, 01:55 AM
  #334
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Originally Posted by Petro Points View Post
really? Dubnyk hasnt even solidified himself as a starter.. comparing him to Ward and Neimi who signed their contracts after winning the stanley cup is absurd.
No matter how you twist things.. Dubnyk will be overpaid by atleast a million\yr
No attempt to cherry pick stats here. I went strictly by save percentage from last season and selected 4 goaltenders in Dubnyk's range. Cam Ward is a better goaltender than Dubnyk at this stage (he's in his prime at 28 and he's not a great deal better than Dubnyk really, but he gets the nod for the time being); he's also a couple of years older (and making 2.5 M more a season). Imo Dubnyk is a better goaltender than Niemi, who played well enough to win the cup behind a great Blackhawks team, although I never thought that Niemi played particularly outstanding in any of the playoff series that he played, and he let in some soft goals during the run that his team compensated for. Craig Anderson is a decent goalie, but I think Dubnyk is on a higher trajectory and Nabokov, at 37, is at the end of his career. No comparison is perfect, but I just noted that Dubnyk's pay is not completely out of line for where he's at. I wouldn't trade Dubnyk straight up for Niemi, Anderson, or Nabokov, personally, and probably not even Ward, considering the money he's making. Certainly, Dubnyk still has some things to prove, but he's shown himself capable of taking the reins the past couple of seasons.

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07-06-2012, 02:01 AM
  #335
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We all knew we weren't going to change things in net this next season... Sooooo why does it matter that he is paid 1M too much?

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07-06-2012, 02:03 AM
  #336
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Originally Posted by dobiezeke View Post
And you have nothing to support your opinion...
I dont... im just trying to justify this overpayment

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07-06-2012, 02:05 AM
  #337
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Originally Posted by Petro Points View Post
I dont... im just trying to justify this overpayment
And ironically it isn't an overpayment.

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07-06-2012, 02:08 AM
  #338
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Originally Posted by dobiezeke View Post
And ironically it isn't an overpayment.
To you it isnt since you compare him to Schneider..

To me it is since I compare him to Deslaurier..

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07-06-2012, 02:13 AM
  #339
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Originally Posted by Daneo21 View Post
We all knew we weren't going to change things in net this next season... Sooooo why does it matter that he is paid 1M too much?
I wouldn't even say its that much. I was thinking 3 for 1 or 2 years is fair.

The fact is, we gave a slight overpayment to a guy who, other than the odd weak goal, has been very good for us throughout a few years of pretty terrible rosters. He now has 2 years to prove himself. By that point, Roy and Bunz should be ready and we'll have a good idea of where we stand. It's not like if he can take the next step his salary will double. He's probably looking at about a million dollar raise max

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07-06-2012, 02:24 AM
  #340
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Originally Posted by The Nuge View Post
I wouldn't even say its that much. I was thinking 3 for 1 or 2 years is fair.

The fact is, we gave a slight overpayment to a guy who, other than the odd weak goal, has been very good for us throughout a few years of pretty terrible rosters. He now has 2 years to prove himself. By that point, Roy and Bunz should be ready and we'll have a good idea of where we stand. It's not like if he can take the next step his salary will double. He's probably looking at about a million dollar raise max
I understand that and I'm glad you do too... my question was directed at the people that are complaining about this deal... again, we all knew our goaltending situation wasn't going to change this year so why the fuss over Dubnyk's salary over a short term deal?

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07-06-2012, 02:42 AM
  #341
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Originally Posted by Mr Bugg View Post
But at what term? Do you handcuff yourself by matching DD @ $3.3K for four years not knowing what he's going to be, or do you control his destiny for a two-year window that helps you better evaluate your financial position at the end of it?
A two-year window is about right; we'll know better where Bunz, Roy, Perhonen, and Tuohimaa stand in terms of their potential. Bunz certainly looks like a great young prospect and Roy has been developing nicely as well.

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07-06-2012, 03:02 AM
  #342
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I don't understand the complete inability of some people to think a half step - not even 1 step, but a half step - into the future. Horcoff's contract should have been a lesson for the entire organization. Khabbi as well. At these levels especially, salary has 0 to do with whether a guy can feed his family/dogs. It has to do with how much a player feels valued by management. Next time Petry goes for negotiations, you think he's going to play nice? What about the young guys? Why take less when other guys get more than they're worth? I can't understand how people can't see the repercussions of a bad deal. Look how Chicago lost its chance at a dynasty. Why was Detroit so successful? Because no one could earn more than Lidstrom...

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07-06-2012, 03:02 AM
  #343
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Originally Posted by The Nuge View Post
I wouldn't even say its that much. I was thinking 3 for 1 or 2 years is fair.

The fact is, we gave a slight overpayment to a guy who, other than the odd weak goal, has been very good for us throughout a few years of pretty terrible rosters. He now has 2 years to prove himself. By that point, Roy and Bunz should be ready and we'll have a good idea of where we stand. It's not like if he can take the next step his salary will double. He's probably looking at about a million dollar raise max
Yeah, realistically, at most this contract is a half million dollars on the high side. Dubnyk has lots of positive arrows these past two seasons, and he is technically quite sound. He hasn't had a tremendous defense playing in front of him, and it's not easy for a goalie to look good on a bad team, yet Dubnyk has done an admirable job of it.

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07-06-2012, 03:05 AM
  #344
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Originally Posted by Daneo21 View Post
I understand that and I'm glad you do too... my question was directed at the people that are complaining about this deal... again, we all knew our goaltending situation wasn't going to change this year so why the fuss over Dubnyk's salary over a short term deal?
This.

I mean this post is a perfect example of what I was railing against just now.

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07-06-2012, 03:06 AM
  #345
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No attempt to cherry pick stats here. I went strictly by save percentage from last season and selected 4 goaltenders in Dubnyk's range. Cam Ward is a better goaltender than Dubnyk at this stage (he's in his prime at 28 and he's not a great deal better than Dubnyk really, but he gets the nod for the time being); he's also a couple of years older (and making 2.5 M more a season). Imo Dubnyk is a better goaltender than Niemi, who played well enough to win the cup behind a great Blackhawks team, although I never thought that Niemi played particularly outstanding in any of the playoff series that he played, and he let in some soft goals during the run that his team compensated for. Craig Anderson is a decent goalie, but I think Dubnyk is on a higher trajectory and Nabokov, at 37, is at the end of his career. No comparison is perfect, but I just noted that Dubnyk's pay is not completely out of line for where he's at. I wouldn't trade Dubnyk straight up for Niemi, Anderson, or Nabokov, personally, and probably not even Ward, considering the money he's making. Certainly, Dubnyk still has some things to prove, but he's shown himself capable of taking the reins the past couple of seasons.
Not sure how you think Dubnyk is on higher trajectory than Craig Anderson. At least Anderson had a brilliant season and is paid accordingly on that basis. Dubnyk was 20 - 25, had mediocre save %, GAA, and hasn't distinguished himself in anyway, ever, He's been toiling as an NHL backup on the basis of beating out one player, JDD(and hardly at that) and due to a GM that wouldn't fill a key spot better than hiring Khabi. If we got a real reliable goalie instead we're not even having this Dubnyk conversation and he's in the where are they now file.

Next, citing stats is misleading because the team carefully managed Dubnyks starts through much of the season. For the most part they gave him the games they expected the team to do better in.

For instance a look at his starts against some non playoff teams is interesting.

If you were trying to make an Oiler goalie look good who would you start him against i our conference?

Columbus, correct. Dubnyk got ALL 4 games against the hapless blue jackets. The closest thing the Oilers have had to guaranteed win night.

What non playoff division team that has our number would you avoid putting Dubnyk out against? Minnesota, correct, Dubnyk had zero starts against Minny. How'd that happen. Doesn't look random to me.

For the record he had 4 games against the Flames, a safe bet because the Flames had one of the most putrid offences in the league.

He had 3 starts against the other bad team, Colorado.

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07-06-2012, 03:18 AM
  #346
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Whats the difference between an OTL and a Tie? Isn't the shootout just a competition to find out who gets the extra point and therefor slide over into the W column (all W's are 2 pts)?

Dubnyk contract is large. We can handle it, but I'm certain this could have been done for 3.2M without any complaints. 300,000 might come in handy next offseason, who knows. Or it could have been part of Dubnyk's future raise, instead of a built-in chunk. Oh well.

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07-06-2012, 03:57 AM
  #347
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Originally Posted by Replacement View Post
Not sure how you think Dubnyk is on higher trajectory than Craig Anderson. At least Anderson had a brilliant season and is paid accordingly on that basis. Dubnyk was 20 - 25, had mediocre save %, GAA, and hasn't distinguished himself in anyway, ever, He's been toiling as an NHL backup on the basis of beating out one player, JDD(and hardly at that) and due to a GM that wouldn't fill a key spot better than hiring Khabi. If we got a real reliable goalie instead we're not even having this Dubnyk conversation and he's in the where are they now file.

Next, citing stats is misleading because the team carefully managed Dubnyks starts through much of the season. For the most part they gave him the games they expected the team to do better in.

For instance a look at his starts against some non playoff teams is interesting.

If you were trying to make an Oiler goalie look good who would you start him against i our conference?

Columbus, correct. Dubnyk got ALL 4 games against the hapless blue jackets. The closest thing the Oilers have had to guaranteed win night.

What non playoff division team that has our number would you avoid putting Dubnyk out against? Minnesota, correct, Dubnyk had zero starts against Minny. How'd that happen. Doesn't look random to me.

For the record he had 4 games against the Flames, a safe bet because the Flames had one of the most putrid offences in the league.

He had 3 starts against the other bad team, Colorado.
So you're telling me that the 5 NHL games that Anderson played as a 25 year-old and the 17 NHL games that he played as a 26 year old were against the NHL's premier teams? When your team is in the bottom of the league, none of the other teams are easy to play against. Your defensive coverage doesn't make you look stellar either.

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07-06-2012, 04:07 AM
  #348
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Originally Posted by Petro Points View Post
To you it isnt since you compare him to Schneider..

To me it is since I compare him to Deslaurier..
Funnily enough, both comparisons are equally unsupportable.

There's a middle ground there, and it's called Jimmy Howard.

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07-06-2012, 04:32 AM
  #349
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Funnily enough, both comparisons are equally unsupportable.

There's a middle ground there, and it's called Jimmy Howard.
Yeah and Jimmy Howard is nothing to get excited about.

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07-06-2012, 05:14 AM
  #350
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Well the Flyers went to the cup with a "mediocre" goalie and the Hawks won with one.

I think Dubnyk is at least average. Could be on the verge of becoming OK and hell... maybe he'll rise up to decent eventually.

I think he was going to get $2+ million anyway you cut it and $2.5 was probably what most expected so we are arguing over ~$1 million in a $70 million cap world.

They obviously weren't going to get another goalie because about eleventy billion goalies have come and gone throughout the NHL as UFA's and in trades over the last few years.

They look to be committed to seeing what Dubby can do and Khabi is probably the backup until he's off the books unless some team is crazy enough to take him at this age. He's a good mentor/friend for Yakupov etc etc.

Who will be Dubby's backup the following year? Interesting to see who they use... maybe a guy like Danis until Roy/Bunz are ready to come up for a sniff.

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