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Kessel's statistical potential

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07-12-2012, 08:05 AM
  #1
MapleLeafs9
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Kessel's statistical potential

I was just sitting here looking up some stats, was pretty bored, and I realized how lucky we may really be to have a player like Phil Kessel. He had 37 goals and 82 points last year...37 AND 82! The highest a Leaf has put up since Sundin's 83 points in '99 and 37 goals in '03.

So that made me start thinking, and thinking about it, Kessel was a real treat to watch this year. He was flying all over the place and has such a fantastic shot, also showed some playmaking abilities as well. By how much he is crapped on by all the other 29 fan bases you would think he is a 2nd liner, overrated by all of Leafs Nation, a floater, etc. I truly believe he is, in fact, severely underrated by all the other 29 fan bases, and that only Leaf fans and management know what we truly have here.

I took a look at his career stats, and I think we can all agree Kessel is going to be a 35-40 goal, 85+ point scorer for many years to come, so I decided to add up the stats and I think when all is said and done, he will be among the all the time greats. He is 24 turning 25 in October, will likely play until he is 40, so 15 more years...Here's what I got:

30 goals average x 15 years = 450. Add that to his 165 goals already and you have approximately 615. That would place him 16th all time in goal scoring (lower rank 15 years from now seeing that Ovechkin, Crosby and others will be up there as well). I choose to use 30 as the average because he will probably score 35-40 on average and MAYBE even have a 50 goal season, but will decline to probably some 20 goal seasons in his later years.

75 points average x 15 years = 1125. Add that to his 327 points already and you have approximately 1452. That would place him 15th all time in points scoring (again, lower 15 years from now due to many other players getting up there). Reasoning for 75 points average is same as above...He will probably put up many 80-90 and maybe even 100 point seasons, but decline later on.

He may or may not get those numbers, or he could achieve even greater numbers. But Kessel is a great player and I wish other fan bases can open their eyes and see what he really is. Can't wait to see how much better he can play with a legit #1 centre.


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07-12-2012, 08:12 AM
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indigobuffalo
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Um... no. We're packaging him with our 1st in 2013 for Rick Nash...

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07-12-2012, 08:16 AM
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MapleLeafs9
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Um... no. We're packaging him with our 1st in 2013 for Rick Nash...
Oh yeah. Sorry everybody...Sorry! /thread

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07-12-2012, 08:36 AM
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Stephen
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I appreciate your enthusiasm, but playing 15 more years is pretty tough, and maintaining a 75 point, 30 goal pace is really a tall order for anybody. I mean, at 38-39, Wayne Gretzky himself only scored 9 goals...

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07-12-2012, 08:39 AM
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The Naz
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Reminded me how much I dislike Hughson as the PBP guy. He just isn't interested in calling the leafs. He seems so bored until they score and puts on his fan hat. Big difference between he and Cole, Bowen and Miller.

Anyway, can't wait for the season to start. I gotta believe there is a better team waiting for us in Oct.

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07-12-2012, 08:41 AM
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It's funny actually. I think Phil Kessel is overrated by many Leaf fans, underrated by many non-leaf fans, and in the end is a good player. I don't personally care for his style of play, but he gets results, and he is a true goal scorer.

That all said, 75 point average for the next 15 years is extremely optomistic.

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07-12-2012, 08:45 AM
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MapleLeafs9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stephen View Post
I appreciate your enthusiasm, but playing 15 more years is pretty tough, and maintaining a 75 point, 30 goal pace is really a tall order for anybody. I mean, at 38-39, Wayne Gretzky himself only scored 9 goals...
Well it's not like he averaged 143 points and 45 goals a year or anything...

Remember, Gretzky was known to be more of a playmaker than a goal scorer, although he excelled everywhere. So a 40 year old with a pass first mentality, playing on the 2nd line and during the dead puck era isn't going to help. He also had 23 goals and 90 points the year before.

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07-12-2012, 08:50 AM
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Originally Posted by Sypher04 View Post
It's funny actually. I think Phil Kessel is overrated by many Leaf fans, underrated by many non-leaf fans, and in the end is a good player. I don't personally care for his style of play, but he gets results, and he is a true goal scorer.

That all said, 75 point average for the next 15 years is extremely optomistic.
I believe it's pretty realistic. Yes I am being optimistic but 82 points at the age of 24 is no small feat. I think he will continue to improve and have quite a few 85-90+ point years down the road...He will likely put up 60-50 points near the end of his career which is why I chose 75.

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07-12-2012, 08:55 AM
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Pretty lofty stuff. Not sure I see Kessel as a guy playing until he's 40, and I'm as big a fan of his as anyone, I really think he's an elite sniper the likes of which we haven't had in a long time. 500 goals and 1000 points should be safely in reach as long as he stays healthy and plays until he's say 35. 600 and nearly 1500.. that's real big time stuff, not so sure, but hey, here's hoping I suppose (as long as he stays a Leaf).

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07-12-2012, 09:07 AM
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Kessel early in his draft year was considered to be the American Sidney Crosby. The kid had elite potential. He was expected to go #1 overal however shockingly fell to #5.

I honestly believe after watching Kessel this past season, that the leafs could be sitting on the most dynamic offensive winger in the league. (excluding defensive play).

Kessel can absolutely take over a game and stick handle in a phone booth. He controls the pace of the game. A comparable style winger to Kessel IMO would be Alexander Ovechkin. Now I understand that Ovechkin has put up prolific HHOF numbers early in his career, however is falling back down to earth. Kessel is getting better as he begins to reach his prime.

Now i know there are the likes of Hossa, Kovalchuk, St.Louis. IMO a combination of age, potential, all around offensive game (including team mates, ability to score, puck handling talent, vision of the ice) i would say kessel was the most affective offensive forward in that group (offensively and excluding playoffs).

Of course all of this excludes his games against Boston. Kessel would actually be a plus player if we didnt play boston this year..

He had

3points in 6 games with a -11 rating ....

Kessel's stats without playing Boston

76GP 36G 43A +1 = 79P

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07-12-2012, 09:39 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HockeyGuruPitka View Post
Kessel early in his draft year was considered to be the American Sidney Crosby. The kid had elite potential. He was expected to go #1 overal however shockingly fell to #5.

I honestly believe after watching Kessel this past season, that the leafs could be sitting on the most dynamic offensive winger in the league. (excluding defensive play).

Kessel can absolutely take over a game and stick handle in a phone booth. He controls the pace of the game. A comparable style winger to Kessel IMO would be Alexander Ovechkin. Now I understand that Ovechkin has put up prolific HHOF numbers early in his career, however is falling back down to earth. Kessel is getting better as he begins to reach his prime.

Now i know there are the likes of Hossa, Kovalchuk, St.Louis. IMO a combination of age, potential, all around offensive game (including team mates, ability to score, puck handling talent, vision of the ice) i would say kessel was the most affective offensive forward in that group (offensively and excluding playoffs).

Of course all of this excludes his games against Boston. Kessel would actually be a plus player if we didnt play boston this year..

He had

3points in 6 games with a -11 rating ....

Kessel's stats without playing Boston

76GP 36G 43A +1 = 79P
Yeah I definitely remember the "American Crosby" hype, while his personality and obstacles (cancer) were different and changing his development path, he grew up dominating minor hockey just as prolific as Crosby did in American circles. Kessel definitely has elite skill and potential, while we all have our vision of what Elite is supposed to represent, he is in an elite class of his own on the Leafs. For now. Love the kid, loved the video, makes me wanna shoot some pucks now. Proud he's a Leaf.

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07-12-2012, 09:58 AM
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Seriously love this guy, was smiling and jumped a little bit when seeing some of those goals. What a beauty!

I know it won't happen but if he gets better defensively, and plays center with JVR and Lupul? Might be an interesting thing, who knows. Whatever the case is, he's a keeper and I hope he hits 40+ in the upcoming season.

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07-12-2012, 10:13 AM
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I'm hoping he becomes a 40-40 guy in the next few years.

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07-12-2012, 10:42 AM
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Watching that video, what stands out is how many of his goals were to open up the scoring, tie a game, or take a lead.

Awesome player

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07-12-2012, 10:44 AM
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What is amazing for Kessel is that he has 4 years of 30 goal seasons at 25. This is his most amazing feat and shows his consistency and also his relative injury free durability.
Also after the small drop off goals since joining the leafs, he seems to be back on track since last year of increasing goal output.

That said, last year, Malkin and Stamkos play seem to be level beyond Kessel. They are playing like generational talents. And Kessel is in the mix with other elite category with players like Gabby, Neale, Kovy, Perry, Moulson (maybe Taveres makes him look this good), Taveres, pacioretty and Eberle etc. Even Ovy and Perry seemed to drop off from their previous dominance.

What is needed for kessel to take his game to next level is a performance that separates him from the "elite pack". A 45 plus goal season. I think league wide Kessel is just another quality player in the elite pack. A 1C might be the catalyst for this elevation in importance of Kessel across the league but I think this is the reality Kessel is another very good but not generational player (yet).

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07-12-2012, 11:32 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Naz View Post
Reminded me how much I dislike Hughson as the PBP guy. He just isn't interested in calling the leafs. He seems so bored until they score and puts on his fan hat. Big difference between he and Cole, Bowen and Miller.

Anyway, can't wait for the season to start. I gotta believe there is a better team waiting for us in Oct.

doesn't matter that he calls a very clean game eh?

I for one could not care less that he isn't a Leafs Homer. Everytime I have to listen to Bowen and Miller I want to stab myself in the ears with a ****ing ice pick. They get so far off topic and start telling jokes and ****....Just call the ****ing game.

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07-12-2012, 11:51 AM
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Please don't show this outside of the Leafs board...

I like your optimism but...my god...this post is full of so much wrong...for so many reasons

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07-12-2012, 11:53 AM
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I said the kid had 50/50 potential when we first got him, and I still believe it.

That being said, it takes the right linemates and right situation for that to happen for most any player, so he might never get there.....but hey, the kid was pretty much a 40/40 guy at age 23/24, and that's without a legit #1 C beside him, so he still has a chance to get up there.

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07-12-2012, 12:12 PM
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Lets just take it one year at a time. For all we know he gets a career ending injury in the first game of the 2012-2013 season.

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07-12-2012, 12:13 PM
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Originally Posted by MeowLeafs View Post


Please don't show this outside of the Leafs board...

I like your optimism but...my god...this post is full of so much wrong...for so many reasons
Elaborate, instead of just trying to make me sound foolish.

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07-12-2012, 12:16 PM
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Quote:
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I appreciate your enthusiasm, but playing 15 more years is pretty tough, and maintaining a 75 point, 30 goal pace is really a tall order for anybody. I mean, at 38-39, Wayne Gretzky himself only scored 9 goals...
Only because goalies started to play the butterfly and actually making saves.

Gretzky and Lemieux were great and all but have you seen the goalies from those days? they just stood up thin, gave you a lot to shoot at. They were easy to deke.
One move and they had nothing.

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07-12-2012, 12:18 PM
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Kessel will never be a difference maker until he is willing to go to the dirty areas on the ice as well as be willing to take a check to make a play, something he has yet shown a willingness to do.

His numbers this year was a result of him playing for a coach who allowed him to play in one zone only and his coach this year will have none of that. He will be hard pressed to achieve the same point total this coming year under Carlyle. Also Carlyle is a line matcher which will see his average ice time a game drop.

I love Kessel's skill.....but not a fan of his overall game.

I posted after Carlyle arrived here that I believe him and Carlyle will not see eye to eye at all.

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07-12-2012, 12:27 PM
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I think your projections up to age 40 are a little off. I too believe that he hs room to grow beyond a PPG player, especially if we get an equally talented center for him, but I'm not sure I see him putting up those kind of points at age 40.

What we do have going for him, is that because he is not a crash and bang player, he will likely enjoy many more healthy seasons than his peers. Unfortunately, people who want Kessel to be Colton Orr don't realize this.

We have a special, special player.

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07-12-2012, 12:29 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by diceman934 View Post
Kessel will never be a difference maker until he is willing to go to the dirty areas on the ice as well as be willing to take a check to make a play, something he has yet shown a willingness to do.

His numbers this year was a result of him playing for a coach who allowed him to play in one zone only and his coach this year will have none of that. He will be hard pressed to achieve the same point total this coming year under Carlyle. Also Carlyle is a line matcher which will see his average ice time a game drop.

I love Kessel's skill.....but not a fan of his overall game.

I posted after Carlyle arrived here that I believe him and Carlyle will not see eye to eye at all.
Teemu Selanne. That name should be enough to tell you skilled player like Kessel can easily get along with Carlyle.

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07-12-2012, 12:34 PM
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Originally Posted by zeke View Post
I said the kid had 50/50 potential when we first got him, and I still believe it.

That being said, it takes the right linemates and right situation for that to happen for most any player, so he might never get there.....but hey, the kid was pretty much a 40/40 guy at age 23/24, and that's without a legit #1 C beside him, so he still has a chance to get up there.
All he really needs to do is pull a Kulemin/Perry and shoot 17% for a season and there's your 50 goals. Hell, he only has to shoot a 13.5% to break 40.

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