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Realistic Career Projections for Habs Prospects

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Old
07-12-2012, 08:31 AM
  #76
MTL-rules
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Originally Posted by JAVO16 View Post
Alex Galchenyuk = David Legwand

Nathan Beaulieu = Ron Hainsey

Jarred Tinordi = Ryan O'Byrne

Sebastian Collberg = Nikita Filatov

Brendan Gallagher = Eric Perrin

Morgan Ellis = Dan Jancevski





Could very well be... let's not get carried away by our prospects too soon.

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07-12-2012, 09:14 AM
  #77
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I'll try this just for pure fun. Based on the first 15 prospects voted here in another thread.

Then I'll keep this post to see how wrong I am in a couple of years...

1. Alex Galchenyuk, C -- Average first line center, but first line center nonetheless. Won't have impressive numbers, but will be a coach's player. Will be better in playoffs than in regular season.

2. Nathan Beaulieu, D -- Good #2 to #4 d-man. Will never be the most efficient in his own territory, neither in the o-zone, but will be a nice complementary piece to the premiere d-man point producer for the team he will play for. Eternal second PP unit.

3. Jarred Tinordi, D -- Valuable stay-at-home d-man. Long career from #4 to #7 d-man. Will need to be paired with the perfect fit to be as good as he can.

4. Louis Leblanc, C/RW -- Coach's player, good third liner with occasional top lines duty. Will have a couple of seasons during which people will think he finally breakout (points), but it will never go higher than during these seasons.

5. Sebastien Collberg, RW -- Speedy winger, will have problems to translate his offensive potential in the NHL. After a few seasons alternating between second line and third or fourth, will go back in Europe. Think Anti Nieminen.

6. Brendan Gallagher, RW -- Constant yet average point producer on any line he will play. Long career as a complimentary point producer in the Cliff Ronning mold. Will end up having play for many teams.

7. Morgan Ellis, D -- Another coach's player, in the Josh Gorges mold. An interesting #5-6 d-man to have around.

8. Danny Kristo, RW -- Good third liner, what Chris Higgins could have been. Occasional top lines duty. Will end up playing for many team as an interesting complementary part.

9. Dalton Thrower, D -- Will have some chances because of his character and shot, but will never be more than a #5-#7 d-man. Short career. Lots of injuries.

10. Michael Bournival, C -- Star in the AHL, with some valuable moments on a third or fourth line in the NHL. Could become the ideal 13th forward.

11. Mac Bennett, D -- Will be a late bloomer, reaching the NHL when people will have forgot about him, and will surprise with his smooth skating. But beside 1 or 2 seasons during which a struggling team will take a chance on him as a regular point man, he will never be more than a #5-#7 d-man, helpful when one of the PP point man is injured. Think about Lee Norwood a few years ago.

12. Tim Bozon, LW -- Career AHLer with some cups of coffee in the NHL. Not good enough to be a sniper or a real power forward, and not strong or gritty enough to be a real third or fourth liner. Will end up playing in Europe.

13. Patrick Holland, C -- Will surprise a lot of people by becoming a good second line center, but without a true "personality" or edge, so he will end up playing for a lot of struggling teams. Could become a poor man Andrew Cassels.

14. Aaron Palushaj, RW -- What you see now is what it will always be. Somewhere between the AHL and NHL. Will try in the KHL in 1 or 2 years.

15. Darren Dietz, D -- Serviceable spare part in the NHL. Will have a few good season as a #4-#6 d-man, but nothing to write home about.

Now, we'll see... lol
Oh just kill me now if that's what we have to look forward to. I think your projectinos are extremely pessimistic and we might as well have the worst prospects in the NHL based on this. I understand you're trying to be realistic, but really? NO home run picks at ALL? We've had more than our share of players who are currently making a big impact in the NHL on other teams and our own if you look at Subban and MaxPac. I'm sorry I just don't agree with your views at all.

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Old
07-12-2012, 09:31 AM
  #78
CanadienKid25
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Originally Posted by Roulin View Post
Definitely the most realistic list so far.
Agreed

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Old
07-12-2012, 09:59 AM
  #79
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Gally: Bust
Collberg: Bust
Leblanc: Bust
Beaulieu: Bust
Tinordi: Bust
Thrower: Bust
Ellis: Bust
Kristo: Ohhh man that's a bust.


I think I'd like to be crowned as king of realism, now. Kthnx.

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Old
07-12-2012, 10:07 AM
  #80
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Stop comparing Ellis with Gorges, Ellis is reliable defensively, but he is more a two-way D than a defensive D. He has a good offensive touch and can trigger a hard slap shot, which has nothing to do with Josh (captain Kelowna ).

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07-12-2012, 11:43 AM
  #81
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It's always hard to do this kind of thing because no two players are ever alike. Besides that, I don't really know what I'm talking about when it comes to prospects. In any event.

Tinordi: a blend of Matvichuk and Hatcher from the Dallas days. In effect, a tough, physical shutdown defenceman with leadership. But Tinordi seems to be a better skater than both though not as mean or vicious as either.

Beaulieu: a Hainsey or Sydor or Wideman type of player. But maybe there's a Brian Campbell-ness to him, in that it could take time before he harnesses his supreme skating and offence and develops the ability to impact a game in a way that separates him from the more typical PP defenceman with warts who can still find a home in many teams' top 4.

Galchenyuk: not too much to go on, but possibly a scaled version (given the NHL's expansion) of a franchise playmaker centre like Hawerchuk and Francis. The team's best forward and perennial offensive leader. A player to build around, and who makes players around him better.

Ellis: he makes me think of Rivet with lesser fighting and physical abilities. An honest defenceman who won't cheat on defence and can give some offence from time to time. A reliable but unspectacular player with potential to grow into a leadership role.

That's enough fantasy for now. I'll look through my old hockey cards later and see what other associations spring to mind.

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07-12-2012, 12:08 PM
  #82
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Originally Posted by MTL-rules View Post
Could very well be... let's not get carried away by our prospects too soon.
Yeah, but it's more fun to be optimistic than defeatist when it comes to player projection. These are actually what I think are the bottom-ceiling (is that an expression ?) of these prospects.

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07-12-2012, 12:53 PM
  #83
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Originally Posted by montreal View Post
Are you saying that Ellis is a better skater then Beaulieu?
I'm not.

I mean skating like the wind is an asset. If you don't position well/read the play well enough you'll skate for nothing and the slower guy with better anticipation will much more visible.

We have an olympic size rink here, which should considerably avantage beaulieu's skating to ellis' toughness. Yet Ellis always looked stronger then both Beaulieu and Gormley (two fantastic skaters) every time they played here. A good skater that can't use it on a rink of our size has tons of work to do before being able to use it in the NHL with much better players. A guy like Ellis that doesn't need skating to look good is much closer IMO.

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07-12-2012, 01:23 PM
  #84
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Originally Posted by CH4 View Post
I'm not.

I mean skating like the wind is an asset. If you don't position well/read the play well enough you'll skate for nothing and the slower guy with better anticipation will much more visible.

We have an olympic size rink here, which should considerably avantage beaulieu's skating to ellis' toughness. Yet Ellis always looked stronger then both Beaulieu and Gormley (two fantastic skaters) every time they played here. A good skater that can't use it on a rink of our size has tons of work to do before being able to use it in the NHL with much better players. A guy like Ellis that doesn't need skating to look good is much closer IMO.
I see. Personally I thought Beaulieu looked better then Ellis at the Memorial Cup but it's the only time i've seen them on the same ice together.

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07-12-2012, 01:24 PM
  #85
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NotProkofievian View Post
Gally: Bust
Collberg: Bust
Leblanc: Bust
Beaulieu: Bust
Tinordi: Bust
Thrower: Bust
Ellis: Bust
Kristo: Ohhh man that's a bust.


I think I'd like to be crowned as king of realism, now. Kthnx.
the most realistic list I've seen so far

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07-12-2012, 01:27 PM
  #86
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Galchenyuk : 80 pts Toews type. no.1C (yes i know i have big expectations)
Beaulieu : 40+ pts PP specialist with def shortcomings.no.4-5D (not sold on him)
Tinordi : Faster,meaner Hal Gill.no.3-4D (i like his simple, solid game)
Gallagher : slower,more abrasive Gionta type (who doesn't like him really)
Collberg : 2nd line sniper
Leblanc : solid north-south 3rd line forward 30/40 pts a year (poor man's Bergeron)
Thrower : tougher Beauchemin type D
Ellis : steady low-risk defensive D (Gorges type)

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07-12-2012, 01:53 PM
  #87
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A good comparison for Beaulieu would be Jay Bouwmeester, I think.

Tall, mobile, good on offence, not so good on defence but fast enough that he can still be OK.

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07-12-2012, 01:58 PM
  #88
montreal
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Originally Posted by Pr3Va1L View Post
A good comparison for Beaulieu would be Jay Bouwmeester, I think.

Tall, mobile, good on offence, not so good on defence but fast enough that he can still be OK.
really, that sounds like a bad comparison to me.

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07-12-2012, 02:13 PM
  #89
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The guy that Beaulieu always reminds me of is Brissbois(sp?). Now if
he can have a little more confidence at the NHL level, and get stronger than
Brissbois, I'd settle for that.
Feel free to hate me for this, if you really don't like him.

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07-12-2012, 02:24 PM
  #90
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Originally Posted by poetryinmotion View Post
Oh just kill me now if that's what we have to look forward to. I think your projectinos are extremely pessimistic and we might as well have the worst prospects in the NHL based on this. I understand you're trying to be realistic, but really? NO home run picks at ALL? We've had more than our share of players who are currently making a big impact in the NHL on other teams and our own if you look at Subban and MaxPac. I'm sorry I just don't agree with your views at all.
Pure fun, like I said. Now watching the futur unfold is the fun of it. I wouldn't consider what I wrote as "my views". More of "my wild guesses".

By the way, in what I wrote, I see at least 5 or 6 players who will have an impact in their own right. It is just that wqe don't agree on what an impact is.

What I wrote on Galchenyuk is pretty close of a "home run pick", if you ask me...

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07-12-2012, 02:30 PM
  #91
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Originally Posted by Pr3Va1L View Post
A good comparison for Beaulieu would be Jay Bouwmeester, I think.

Tall, mobile, good on offence, not so good on defence but fast enough that he can still be OK.
J-Bo is one of the premier shutdown dmen in the league (plays very tough minutes)

Its his offense that has been underwhelming.

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07-12-2012, 02:31 PM
  #92
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NotProkofievian View Post
Gally: Bust
Collberg: Bust
Leblanc: Bust
Beaulieu: Bust
Tinordi: Bust
Thrower: Bust
Ellis: Bust
Kristo: Ohhh man that's a bust.


I think I'd like to be crowned as king of realism, now. Kthnx.
Most realistic list I've seen in this thread

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07-12-2012, 02:36 PM
  #93
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Beaulieu was over +40 in the last 3 years with the Seadogs. Sure he has lots of points, essentially a PPG guy but that's seriously good.

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07-12-2012, 02:45 PM
  #94
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Originally Posted by pelletier666 View Post
Beaulieu was over +40 in the last 3 years with the Seadogs. Sure he has lots of points, essentially a PPG guy but that's seriously good.
Beaulieu was a career +124 in 233 games for the Sea Dogs, of course his numbers are going to be inflated due to playing on such a stacked team but even still that's impressive (even though I hate the plus minus stat)

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07-12-2012, 02:55 PM
  #95
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Many people think that Beaulieu is not going to fare so well in the NHL, but I stand by my point that he could b a top pair d-man, that produces 50-70 points a year, with good defensive play. I really think this kid is going to be something special. I'd compare him to Dan Boyle.

Galchenyuk has had various projections, but nevertheless, he will be out no.1 centre, that can give you 70-90 points a year, and he's the kind of player you can build a championship team around. I'd compare him to Jonathan Toews or Anze Kopitar.

Those 2, plus our other prospects like Tinordi, Collberg, Gallagher, etc... plus our current young core in Price, Subban, and Pacioretty, we could have something really special in a few years.

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07-12-2012, 03:09 PM
  #96
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Alex Galchenyuk- #1C, 80+ pts in prime years, Kopitar

Beaulieu- 2nd Pairing, #1PP, 40+ pts, Mike Green

Tinordi- 1st/2nd pairing, #1 PK, 10-25 pts, Dan Girardi

Collberg- 2nd line, 25g, 45+ pts, Jason Spezza

Gallagher- 2nd/3rd line, 20-25g, 40+ pts, Brian Gionta

Ellis- 2nd/3rd pairing, 20-30pts, good +/-, Gorges

Kristo- 2nd line, 20-25g, 30-40pts, Chris Higgins

Thrower- 3rd Pairing, 20 pts, Bieksa

Bozon- 1st/2nd line, 50 pts, Pat Kane (I like this kid)

This assuming they all make the NHL which in all likelihood won't happen.

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07-12-2012, 03:43 PM
  #97
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Many people think that Beaulieu is not going to fare so well in the NHL, but I stand by my point that he could b a top pair d-man, that produces 50-70 points a year, with good defensive play. I really think this kid is going to be something special. I'd compare him to Dan Boyle.

Galchenyuk has had various projections, but nevertheless, he will be out no.1 centre, that can give you 70-90 points a year, and he's the kind of player you can build a championship team around. I'd compare him to Jonathan Toews or Anze Kopitar.

Those 2, plus our other prospects like Tinordi, Collberg, Gallagher, etc... plus our current young core in Price, Subban, and Pacioretty, we could have something really special in a few years.
agreed, it's just that he needs a lot of refinement to many parts of his game and may never be more than a PP specialist, but i do like his upside a lot

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07-13-2012, 09:45 AM
  #98
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Quote:
Originally Posted by poetryinmotion View Post
Oh just kill me now if that's what we have to look forward to. I think your projectinos are extremely pessimistic and we might as well have the worst prospects in the NHL based on this. I understand you're trying to be realistic, but really? NO home run picks at ALL? We've had more than our share of players who are currently making a big impact in the NHL on other teams and our own if you look at Subban and MaxPac. I'm sorry I just don't agree with your views at all.
Really - I think you might be extremely disappointed if you're expecting much more than that. I thought that was a very realistic assessment (though I wouldn't call it very optimistic).

Only time will tell, and clearly I hope he's wrong on a few of his predictions, but I think some people are getting a little too optimistic on here.

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Old
07-13-2012, 11:23 AM
  #99
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Collberg is undersized, does not have a strong defensive game and struggled mightily when playing against tough competition.

He has a very long way to go before he will be making any impact or even make the team with the Canadiens.

This is why I love the HFBoards and love threads like this one.
You forgot to add he doesn't fight.

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07-13-2012, 12:50 PM
  #100
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I'll limit this to guys I have seen play a game, and paid attention to.

Galchenyuk: PPG center. He's as driven as Plekanec, but is in a different league talent wise. The guy has so many offensive tools that our other centermen don't have, all in one package. You put him with Patches and another good winger, and he'll easily get his 40-50 apples per year, on top of scoring 30+ goals per year. 80 points mean, 225 variance.

Collberg: First line winger. I think he'd be so good with Galchenyuk and Pacioretty. A gionta like career, not comparing the players, as they play very differently.

Tinordi: A good, mean #4, and PK specialist.

Beaulieu: A good #3. I don't think he's got what it takes upstairs to be a top flight dman. But it will be a menace to have to deal with Subban 25 minutes per game, and then have Beaulieu moving the puck another 25 minutes per game.

Gallagher: He'll have a similar impact to Marchand, even though they play different games. When the habs are getting shut down, Gallagher will be that guy to will us the dirtiest, greasiest, garbage goal you've ever seen to get us back in the game.

Leblanc: I liked the Lehtinen comparison. Probably wont win 3 selke's though, and will probably get more offense from assists.

Pribyl: He really has the potential to be a 50+ point player, but this development path he's on leads me to be skeptical. He may not even be offered a contract.

I'm gonna get out to see Bozon, and Thrower this year, as for right now I can't comment. I like the picks though.

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