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NHL proposal amounts to declaration of war

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Old
07-14-2012, 12:38 PM
  #26
MuckOG
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We have nothing to fear but Donald Fehr himself.

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07-14-2012, 12:48 PM
  #27
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We have nothing to fear but Donald Fehr himself.
Could not have said it better myself.

The moment I started worrying about these CBA negotiations was the moment Fehr was brought in by the players.

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07-14-2012, 01:12 PM
  #28
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Originally Posted by squidz View Post
Whether or not years on deals expire is something that would be determined in the new CBA. That is to say, we don't know yet because that's one of the many "to be decided" factors. If there were a full year lockout (still no reason anyone would even think that a possibility) either result could ensue. As for the last lockout, 1 year expired on all deals except for ELCs that were in their first year (I'm pretty sure that was the cutoff...).

As for the AHL, there will be a season there. They're governed by their own CBA which is wholly independent from the NHL's CBA. As for contracts to be signed, players would need to seek new contracts with AHL teams. There may be stipulations about how or if this works in the AHL CBA (I've never read it, but it's possible to have non-compete clauses and the like built in) but I couldn't tell you what they are.



Very important facts that no one ever seems to want to mention:

In no CBA is agreed to by September 15 (the day the current CBA expires, yes there still is a current CBA) nothing actually happens. Under the relevant labor laws, if a CBA expires and is not replaced both employers and employees are required to operate under the terms of the expired CBA until it is replaced. Literally what that means is that play will continue under the existing rules until either the owners lock players out or the players go on strike. Donald Fehr has pledged that the players are willing to start the season, if genuine (and not just a horrible media ploy) the owners and players are likely to agree to a no-stoppage clause and play this season under the expired CBA (as has happened multiple times in league history, albeit once without the no-stoppage clause which bit the owners).

If the owners lock players out (potentially could be a good short-term plan as revenues from October through December are markedly lower than revenues for the rest of the season) it starts costing them money in January. If they're confident they can secure a favorable deal in that timeframe (that seems like a big no considering the factors involved) they might be willing to lockout players until December/January. I'd put this at a relatively low probability of occurring unless the players refuse to agree to a no-strike clause on the season.

If the players were to strike, they would be unable to seek replacement employment, so they'd be unable to play in the AHL, Europe, wherever. Because of that, and the seasonal nature of player compensation, it's unlikely the players would strike prior to April. However, Fehr is most notable for engineering a player strike between the final game of the season and the playoffs in baseball. That's the point where the players may have the most negotiating room. Considering the structure of the league's deal with NBC, I'm not so certain the players would have that leverage there in this case.




Ultimately the question of "who's at fault" is better asked "who does not agree to a no-stoppage clause?"


Thank you for the information, squidz.

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Old
07-14-2012, 01:17 PM
  #29
Northland Wild Man
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Originally Posted by MuckOG View Post
We have nothing to fear but Donald Fehr himself.
I kind of had a feeling the owners might try for a bigger grab at first with him at the helm of the PA. I think it's because he will push hard for them to give up more.

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07-14-2012, 01:19 PM
  #30
geowild
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Originally Posted by bozak911 View Post
These are the three things that I have heard are major sticking points for the players. With the caveat that even the players union does not like the arbitration process.

The current arbitration process is basically a forced situation where the management team trashes the player and the player trashes the management team. Due to the fact that there are sometimes guaranteed arbitration meetings...

I'm pretty sure that both sides want to drastically either do away with this process or completely over haul it.

The proposal I heard was this sort of logic tree:
If QO = Yes Then set percentage increase over previous contract, for 1 year.
Else (QO=No) Then Player becomes UFA.

That way, management has the ability to throw out the QO or not. Then, it's a done deal, good or bad, rather than sitting in a room and being ***** to each other because that is what the system expects.
How does that work for a Stamkos? (answer: It doesn't).

That might be reasonable for 90% of the guys, but the real young stars are screwed, and given the reality of injury, could have a superstar 6 years, get hurt, and never have the big payday they deserved. I like the "each side puts out a number, and the arbitrator can only pick one of them as most just. . . no baby-splitting"

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07-14-2012, 02:50 PM
  #31
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Not sure if this has already been discussed, but how do the owners benefit from a lockout? Aren't they losing money? I feel like it would be far more beneficial to play under the old CBA until a new one can be agreed upon.

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07-14-2012, 03:01 PM
  #32
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Originally Posted by Sneaky Priest View Post
Not sure if this has already been discussed, but how do the owners benefit from a lockout? Aren't they losing money? I feel like it would be far more beneficial to play under the old CBA until a new one can be agreed upon.
Owners make lots of money outside hockey but players don't.

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07-14-2012, 04:29 PM
  #33
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Originally Posted by Sneaky Priest View Post
Not sure if this has already been discussed, but how do the owners benefit from a lockout? Aren't they losing money? I feel like it would be far more beneficial to play under the old CBA until a new one can be agreed upon.
they make more money with a more favorable CBA, i'm pretty sure the owners would love the idea of all the players being paid an hourly wage if they could. the pie is large and owners want as much of it as they can grab

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07-14-2012, 05:48 PM
  #34
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So I guess I'll be watching the Aeros this year. I'm assuming Granlund and Brodin will be down their now.

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07-14-2012, 05:53 PM
  #35
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Yup.

Scandella and Spurgeon as well.

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07-14-2012, 06:09 PM
  #36
geowild
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Originally Posted by MuckOG View Post
We have nothing to fear but Donald Fehr himself.
There's no question who the aggressors are here, and it isn't Fehr and the players. At least not up to now.

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07-14-2012, 06:44 PM
  #37
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Originally Posted by geowild View Post
There's no question who the aggressors are here, and it isn't Fehr and the players. At least not up to now.
I think the combination of the owners looking like they want to play hardball and the players hiring Fehr make for a potentially lethal combination.

If there is a work stoppage... any kind of work stoppage... the NHL is going to lose all the ground it has made up in the past few years in terms of popularity and fan support.

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Old
07-14-2012, 07:15 PM
  #38
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Originally Posted by geowild View Post
There's no question who the aggressors are here, and it isn't Fehr and the players. At least not up to now.
Alternatively, the players are the aggressors because of the absurd revenue split. The NHL has a 43/57 revenue split. The NBA has a 50/50 split (it actually varies slightly year to year, but ultimately averages to even) and the NFL has a 52/48 split (again, varises slightly, that's the average).

As for the terms of the proposal, obviously it's a bid low then haggle to the middle arrangement. The owners have asked for a 54/46 split. Absurd right? Well, in their negotiations, the NFL started at a 60/40 split after $1BN was excluded from the calculation. The owners in the NBA negotiations asked for similar concessions. Frankly, the revenue split the league is asking for is generous compared to the other two leagues that recently went through the same discussions.

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07-14-2012, 07:20 PM
  #39
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RDS.ca posted details of the proposal, including a reduction of players' hockey-related revenues from 57 per cent to 46 per cent
Frankly, this is the part that I am the least concerned about. It is negotiating 101. In the end, it will end up more like 51/49 or 50/50. Absolutely not concerned over that and if it were the only issue... I'd be 100% certain the season starts on time.

I'm more concerned on some of the other issues that were listed by the NHL. Those are pretty much core desires and there would be little wiggle room for compromise. In other words, are they just bargaining chips? I'll give this up, if you give that up...

Until the NHLPA is dissolved, I'm not going to worry.

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07-14-2012, 07:35 PM
  #40
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Originally Posted by bozak911 View Post
Frankly, this is the part that I am the least concerned about. It is negotiating 101. In the end, it will end up more like 51/49 or 50/50. Absolutely not concerned over that and if it were the only issue... I'd be 100% certain the season starts on time.

I'm more concerned on some of the other issues that were listed by the NHL. Those are pretty much core desires and there would be little wiggle room for compromise. In other words, are they just bargaining chips? I'll give this up, if you give that up...

Until the NHLPA is dissolved, I'm not going to worry.
I'd say by far the most threatening thing in the alleged proposal is the changes to HRR calculations. The players have long been of the mind that they want HRR to include more things, and have more opportunity for close audit (they have some sort of audit rights, but they're very limited I believe) based upon request rather than cause. The revenue split is important, but everyone knows that's going to end up going down. HRR composition is the big issue in these negotiations.

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Old
07-14-2012, 08:13 PM
  #41
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With the lockout nearly a guarantee, it's time to search for silver linings.

1. Three months in the AHL will let all of the new prospects grow together and get their feet wet as a group. Granlund can learn to play on a smaller ice sheet. Chemistry can be developed.

2. No hockey the first three months means we save money for the playoffs.

3. Three fewer months of hockey means three fewer months of injuries.

4. Starting in late December means the Wild can start off hot for a few months and not worry about going into a tailspin the final 3 months.

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07-14-2012, 09:06 PM
  #42
Sneaky Priest
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If we win the cup during a shortened season we will never hear the end of it.

"the only reason the Wild won the cup is because the season was shortened."

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Old
07-14-2012, 09:16 PM
  #43
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Originally Posted by squidz View Post
Alternatively, the players are the aggressors because of the absurd revenue split. The NHL has a 43/57 revenue split. The NBA has a 50/50 split (it actually varies slightly year to year, but ultimately averages to even) and the NFL has a 52/48 split (again, varises slightly, that's the average).
Come now, he who is trying to change the status quo and threatening a work stoppage to do it is the aggressor. The old NBA split was 43/57 before the most recent contract, so the current NHL split was not in the least out-of-line when negotiated. . . as a result of a year-long lockout by the owners.

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Old
07-14-2012, 10:48 PM
  #44
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Well there is one silver lining in all this. Our Houston Aero's are going to have one hell of a good team this year. It will be great following them. The NHL will eventually get their ducks in a row. I won't lose any sleep over it, when it's all said and done, it's just one group of extremely rich guys arguing with an even bigger group of rich guys over who gets how much of us poor folks money.

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Old
07-14-2012, 11:15 PM
  #45
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With the lockout nearly a guarantee, it's time to search for silver linings.
I doubt the 2003 draft class ends up being as good as it was had there been no lockout.

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07-14-2012, 11:22 PM
  #46
BigT2002
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I thought the players said they would play with an expired contract regardless...it was the owners who would lock them out?

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07-15-2012, 02:17 PM
  #47
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I thought the players said they would play with an expired contract regardless...it was the owners who would lock them out?
I imagine the owners could be persuaded to avoid locking the players out if the players union signs a no-strike pledge. One of Fehrs most basic tactics is arranging for strikes near the playoffs and I'm sure if this season were to start under the expired CBA, that would be the owners greatest fear.

So I think unless the players sign a no-strike pledge, it is all but a certainty the owners will lock out the players at some point.

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07-15-2012, 03:41 PM
  #48
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I imagine the owners could be persuaded to avoid locking the players out if the players union signs a no-strike pledge. One of Fehrs most basic tactics is arranging for strikes near the playoffs and I'm sure if this season were to start under the expired CBA, that would be the owners greatest fear.

So I think unless the players sign a no-strike pledge, it is all but a certainty the owners will lock out the players at some point.
I could see that and then the owners get pushed by both the players and NBC to get it done with. The playoffs and Winter Classic are the only money makers NBC really has with the league.

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Old
07-15-2012, 03:46 PM
  #49
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It really is in no ones best interest to have a lock-out.

Players: lose money
Owners: lose money
fans: get pissed and don't spend money

If nothing is signed come April I would get a little nervous about a player strike then, but that's about it. They're both going to play a little hard ball to get what they want, but it is in everyones best interest to play and keep things rolling.

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Old
07-15-2012, 05:29 PM
  #50
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There is likely to be two months to be depressed and frustrated, so I'm not starting and being concerned with that now. Won't and don't pay any real attention to CBA news till September.

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