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It's Thinking
Join Date: May 2002
Location: Los Angeles
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Pirates: You Kissed Me and Stopped Me From Shaking And I Need You Today, Oh Wandy
The Pittsburgher Thread was conceived as a place for any Penguins fan to talk about sports of any kind and I'd say it has been a success thus far...but something happened that no one ever could have seen coming...the Pirates started winning. Along with the Pirates winning games the Pittsburgher Thread became essentially a Pirates GDT with any talk about anything else being quickly glossed over and ignored...in an effort to preserve the spirit of that thread I've received the okay to split this thread off for just Pirates talk. Jaded-fan need not apply.
To Christen this thread I decided that it was high time that I actually posted that updated top prospects list I've been promising for months now (I lost my pre-season list when my harddrive died...I swear I was early on the Alen Hanson bandwagon!). Hopefully my use of the word Christen doesn't offend Mark Appel.
A header: post-draft lists are hard to compile...if this was done a month ago everything, aside from the top two, would be different for one glaring reason. I expect/hope that more than two 2012 draftees are on this list next year, but without time it's really hard to place those prospects in a fairly deep system. On a similar note I'm not placing any of the new International free agents on the list because I just don't know enough about them...though I do find it incredibly entertaining that the Pirates' two biggest International signings so far this year are both 16 year-old Dominicans named De La Cruz costing $700k apiece. There were a handful of International prospects from the past couple signing periods I had on my shortlist...but I'm preferring to take the Greg Polanco route with them and wait until they explode in the minors before including them.
1. Gerrit Cole, RHP, 21, Altoona (AA)
The top overall pick in last year’s draft would have benefited from the new draft’s rules (not financially, mind you), as he signed at the last second and didn’t play any professional games last year, but he’s quickly made up for lost time in high-A ball this year. Cole’s stats are largely meaningless this year, as the Pirates are tweaking his delivery and his pitch selection (as with all low minors pitchers), but he’s still managed to put up great numbers and make the Florida League All-Star Game along with Jameson Taillon. Cole earned a promotion to Altoona a few weeks ago and struggled in his latest start, inflating his numbers (only 4 games).
My projection is that he’ll finish the season in Altoona, start next season in Indianapolis, and be called-up to the Majors sometime after the June cut-off date (a date early in June where a player called up doesn’t fulfill a full year of Major League service for contract purposes, effectively buying the team another year of control) when he’s good and ready. I can see a circumstance where he bypasses AAA, but I wouldn’t put money on it unless injuries above him on the depth chart force their hand.
2012 Stats: Bradenton(A+):13 G/GS, 5-1, 2.55 ERA, 1.104 WHIP, 67 IP, 69 K, 21 BB, 3.29 SO/BB, 9.3 SO/9
Altoona (AA): 4 G/GS, 2-2, 5.17 ERA, 1.532 WHIP, 15.2 IP, 16 K, 2 BB, 8 SO/BB, 9.2 SO/9
ETA: June 2013
2. Jameson Taillon, RHP, 20, Bradenton (A+)
Taillon has been messed with a bit more than Cole in the low minors, but he’s still well along his initial ETA. His innings are still being heavily controlled, but should grow considerably as the season progresses. Next year is when we need to start paying attention to his numbers, as the Pirates typically don’t let pitchers loose until they reach Altoona. Taillon has struggled a bit on the mound over the past month as he’s not been getting nearly as many strikeouts as usual, but again there is little to read into pitching statistics at this stage of the minors.
2012 Stats: 17 G/GS, 5-7, 4.43 ERA, 1.193 WHIP, 91.1 IP, 75 K, 28 BB, 2.68 SO/BB, 7.4 SO/9
ETA: June 2014
3. Starling Marte, OF, 23, Indianapolis (AAA)
Any day now we’ll see Marte in the Majors, and he’s a prospect certainly worthy of getting excited about. He profiles to be a very similar prospect as McCutchen…but we have to remember that McCutchen has exceeded his supposed ceiling. In Marte I see a hitter who’s minor league numbers should translate to the Majors, a .270-.300 hitter who hits 15-20 home runs a year while having good gap power, plus speed, and a plus glove.
2012 Stats: 88 G, .286, 10 HR, 55 RBI, 18 SB, .349/.490/.839
ETA: July 2012
4. Alen Hanson, SS, 19, West Virginia (A)
One of the rising stars of minor league baseball; Hanson recently slotted in at #40 on Baseball America’s mid-season list despite not being on the pre-season list. If anything will ever help Pirates fans move on from the horrors of the Miguel Sano saga, it’s the note that Hanson plays the same position and was signed in that same summer from the same country for roughly $3 million less. I still wish Sano would be in the system, but Hanson’s presence helps cauterize that wound.
Hanson essentially skipped State College (he played 3 games there at the end of last season) and is one of the youngest players in the South Atlantic League, and certainly one of the youngest contributors. His bat has evolved well past even the most rosy prognosticator’s expectations in his second year in the U.S., namely in the development of a power swing that no one saw coming. Hanson’s 15 home runs lead West Virginia and rank 4th in the SALLY (the top two hitters are 22 and 23 years old, respectively).
2012 Stats: 88 G, .332, 15 HR, 49 RBI, 22 SB, .394/.585/.978
ETA: September 2014
5. Luis Heredia, RHP, 17, State College (SS A)
Not enough attention is paid to the Pirates’ third prospect with ace potential…which is somewhat understandable considering he’s still a kid in many respects, but his stuff ranks up there with anyone in the system and he’s already a full year ahead of his expected development (made the GCL as a 16 year-old before expected and spent only one season there before the Pirates deemed him too good for a league largely filled with college seniors and 18-19 year-old Latin prospects) and he’s looked good doing it. It’s hard to get excited about only five starts, but Heredia has a 1.12 ERA in 5 starts in State College as the youngest player in the NY-Penn League. Most importantly he’s shown a great improvement in control, which is any young flame thrower’s weakness. He’s on the fast track to success…but considering his age that fast track is still a cross-country ride.
2012 Stats: 5 G/GS, 1-1, 1.12 ERA, 1.083 WHIP, 24 IP, 14 K, 6 BB, 2.33 SO/BB, 5.2 SO/9
ETA: 2016
6. Josh Bell, OF, 19, West Virginia (A)
Despite being drafted last year Bell has the least amount of professional experience on this list, thanks to being a deadline signee last year (for a record $5 million for a non-first rounder, a figure that doesn’t stand to be topped any time soon) and having knee surgery just 15 games into the season. The good news is that the injury wasn’t a bad one and he is expected to return before the season ends, the bad news is that his development has been effectively put on ice for half a season. With only 66 professional plate appearances there’s little to be derived from his minimal stats this year, but his upside is very real. Bell has five tool potential, but it’s rare for players to actually develop all five and his glove projects him more as a corner outfielder than center fielder (not a concern for the Pirates, thankfully). Everything is upside with Bell and there really isn’t much else to say until we actually see him play an extended amount of time in the minors.
2012 Stats: 15 G, .274, 1 HR, 11 RBI, 1 SB, .288/.403/.691
ETA: Late 2015
7. Robbie Grossman, OF, 22, Altoona (AA)
Grossman struggled mightily upon starting the season in AA, but over the past month or so he’s been one of the best batters in the Eastern League, helping his numbers come close to looking good. His April was just about hopeless…but after the end he had to his season last year and his winter ball performance I won’t hold it against him. Grossman is building a profile as a weak starter/strong finisher. He’s known for his intense all-out demeanor and playing style, so it shouldn’t be too surprising that it takes a while for him to warm up. Grossman projects to be a workman third outfielder, a guy who’s not too naturally gifted but has a work ethic and intensity matched by few. He should be a solid #3/great #4 outfielder who can play all three outfield positions very well with more gap power than home run power…his batting average will never be terribly high, but he draws walks better than anyone else in the system, even though he struggled there mightily when adjusting to AA pitching (the transition from high A to AA ball is the hardest one in the minors, so struggles early on are to be expected). He’s still sitting at 55 walks drawn in 373 plate appearances in Altoona (14.7%), after collecting a minor league high of 104 in 616 last year (16.8%) in Bradenton. For comparison’s sake, Neil Walker leads the big league club with 34 in 356 (9.6%).
2012 Stats: 84 G, .254, 7 HR, 30 RBI, 9 SB, .371/.405/.776
ETA: Late 2013
8. Jeff Locke, LHP, 24, Indianapolis (AAA)
Locke tickles me endlessly, mostly because he’s still developing in the system according to plan even after the guy he was traded for flamed out in Atlanta and then again in Pittsburgh for a second time. Locke, Atlanta’s 2nd rounder in 2006, is putting together his finest minor league season yet and is looking very much like a legitimate middle-of-the-rotation starter who can strike out his fair share of batters. If the Pirates do call up a pitcher to start games this season it’ll be interested to see which of Locke or Owens they choose.
2012 Stats: 17 G/GS, 7-5, 2.95 ERA, 1.232 WHIP, 100.2 IP, 87 K, 25 BB, 3.48 SO/BB, 7.8 SO/9
ETA: August 2012
9. Rudy Owens, LHP, 24, Indianapolis (AAA)
Owens has seen a revival to his prospect status this year after an extremely forgettable first season in AAA that saw him shut down early (he’s only 6 innings away from matching his total from last year). When a prospect like Owens comes out of nowhere (unheralded 28th round selection in 2006) and shines in the low minors and then struggles mightily in AAA it sends up a lot of red flags, especially when that prospect is a fairly light-throwing lefty. This was to be Owens’ make or break year to say if he was a legitimate prospect, or just a lefty with good-enough stuff to fool AA caliber batters. He’s responded with a great season, one certainly worth of a call-up to the bigs if necessary. Locke and Owens are really interchangeable on this list, I just prefer Locke because he builds to be a better strikeout pitcher in the Majors and they both excel with control. Owens’ strikes me more as a prototypical left-handed groundball starter (#4/5 guy) while Locke as more of an all-around lefty (#3/4 guy).
2012 Stats: 17 G/GS, 7-4, 2.89 ERA, 1.123 WHIP, 106 IP, 76 K, 20 BB, 3.8 SO/BB, 6.5 SO/9
ETA: August 2012
10. Kyle McPherson, RHP, 24, Altoona (AA)
McPherson has become the forgotten prospect this year…but it’s not hard to see why. He was a riser in the system last season who promptly got hurt this year as soon as eyes started to focus on him. McPherson started the season on the minor league disabled list with shoulder inflammation, which is not a term anyone wants to hear, but he returned to the mount a month ago without requiring surgery and has looked decent. The big thing for McPherson this year is to survive the season while putting in full-time work the rest of the way without requiring surgery. He was set to start the season in Indianapolis, but has started this year out in Altoona and will remain there until his shoulder is at full-strength. To change gears on this entry, McPherson was showing all of the necessary elements of a #3 starter before and is one of the best control pitchers in the minors, which goes nicely with the fact that he has a good fastball, one that was touching 95 in extended spring training, meaning he’s always had a nice SO/BB figure, always a favorite stat of mine. He’s pitched solidly in his return to Altoona so far this year and should find himself in Indianapolis any day now.
2012 Stats: 5 G/GS, 1-4, 4.40 ERA, 1.186 WHIP, 28.2 IP, 23 K, 5 BB, 4.6 SO/BB, 7.2 SO/9
ETA: 2014
11. Gregory Polanco, OF, 20, West Virginia (A)
Polanco is one of this season’s biggest risers in the system and it’s not hard to see why. Polanco is growing into his extensive frame and added power to his repertoire this year, hitting 12 home runs so far (2nd behind only Hanson in WV) despite retaining his speed (34 steals). Polanco is definitely someone to watch in the coming years. Polanco has the ideal build for an outfielder and gets bonus points for being a lefty.
2012 Stats: 86 G, .316, 12 HR, 59 RBI, 34 SB, .379/.512/.891
ETA: 2015
12. Wyatt Mathisen, C, 18, GCL Pirates (Rk)
Yes, I have Mathisen as the system’s top rated catcher. Yes, I have Mathisen as the system’s top rated prospect from the 2012 draft (thank you God for telling Appel to go back into the draft). The top prep catching prospect spent last season playing shortstop, but don’t take that as a sign that he’s going to have to change positions, take that as a sign that Mathisen is an amazing athlete – prep schools almost always start their team’s best athletes at short stop or center field. Mathisen has the build to be a catcher and remain a catcher, one with plus defense and plus speed (for a catcher).
2012 Stats: 18 G, .322, 0 HR, 7 RBI, 4 SB, .406/.390/.796
ETA: 2016
13. Clay Holmes, RHP, 19, State College (SS A)
Holmes, like Bell, received a record deal last year ($1.2 million for a 9th rounder) that isn’t going to be beaten any time soon, and unlike a lot of the bonus babies the Pirates have signed to big money deals only to see little to no return from in the low minors, Holmes has looked dominant in practice sessions and has carried that over into his first few minor league games. Holmes has an ideal starter’s build (6’5”, 230) and a great change-up to go with a solid fastball and curve combo. He’s a groundball innings-eater type who could rise through the system fairly quickly, despite his slow start.
2012 Stats: 5 G/GS, 2-1, 1.14 ERA, 23.2 IP, 15 K, 11 BB, 1.36 SO/BB, 5.7 SO
ETA: 2015
14. Barrett Barnes, OF, 20, State College (SS A)
Hey, a raw, toolsy outfielder? In the Pirates system? Get outta here…
The Pirates scouts definitely have a thing for these types of players. Barnes has four tool potential and looks like as pure of a center fielder that exists in the system. Barnes will be an interesting prospect to follow in the ensuing years because he certainly has all the tools necessary to be a damn fine 2nd tier prospect.
2012 Stats: 22 G, .280, 2 HR, 13 RBI, 7 SB, .396/.400/.796
ETA: 2015
15. Bryan Morris, RHP, 25, Indianapolis (AAA)
I balk at putting relief pitchers in the top 20 for obvious reasons, but Morris has a pedigree that deserves it. Unfortunately he’s the only asset remaining from the Jason Bay deal and he’s no longer a starter, but he profiles to be a good candidate to be a closer in the Majors now. He’s pitching in the set-up man role in Indianapolis (prospects rarely close in AAA, as the job is held by journeymen veterans Tim Wood (13 saves) and Doug Slaten (8), but Morris has still managed 5 of his own. Most importantly his SO/9 has risen since the move to the bullpen while his BB/9 number has fallen. Morris could be what Daniel Moskos should have been…which is so sad in so many ways.
2012 Stats: 29 G/0 GS, 1-2, 5 SVs, 2.58 ERA, 1.108 WHIP, 52.1 IP, 54 K, 12 BB, 4.5 SO/BB, 9.3 SO/9
ETA: September 2012
16. Alex Dickerson, 1B, 22, Bradenton (A+)
Dickerson was a beast of a hitter for Utah in college and has done well for himself so far in the minors. Dickerson is an interesting prospect to watch partially because he’s almost by himself at the position, but also because he has one of the best power builds and power swings of anyone in the system, but he’s yet to hit for power consistently with a wooden bat. He may be another in the long line of AAAA 1B prospects the Pirates have gone through, or he may have the swing to escape it…only time will tell.
2012 Stats: 86 G, .296, 8 HR, 64 RBI, 7 SB, .355/.442/.797
ETA: 2015
17. Justin Wilson, LHP, 24, Indianapolis (AAA)
The Indianapolis rotation certainly isn’t short on 24 year-old lefties. Wilson is one of those pitchers that you never really know what you’re going to get. On the days where he’s on he is comparable to the best pitchers in this organization…on the days he’s off you’re in for a long night. The good news here is that his SO/9 number is better than it’s been in his previous three seasons in the minors, while his BB/9 number is slowly shrinking. He profiles to be a bottom-of-the-rotation lefty, but only because of his inconsistency issues.
2012 Stats: 19 G/GS, 7-4, 4.06 ERA, 1.194 WHIP, 99.2 IP, 102 K, 48 BB, 2.13 SO/BB, 9.2 SO/9
ETA: 2013
18. Victor Black, RHP, 24, Altoona (AA)
Black was a sandwich round pick in 2009 (49th overall) and was one of the cheaper pitchers drafted that year by the Pirates, largely because he was drafted as a reliever (still BA’s 50th ranked prospect in that draft and top pure relief prospect). Black’s career was, like so many other top Pirates pitching prospects, because of injuries. A combination of shoulder and bicep injuries limited him to only 4.2 innings in 2010. 2011 was fairly rough to Black as he was recovering, but his arm has returned to full-strength this year and he’s been a dominant reliever in AA, finishing 19 of the 31 games he’s appeared in (his 6 saves lead the Curve).
2012 Stats: 31 G, 1-1, 6 SVs, 1.42 ERA, 1.368 WHIP, 38 IP, 49 K, 18 BB, 2.72 SO/BB, 11.6 SO/9
ETA: 2014
19. Nick Kingham, RHP, 20, West Virginia (A)
One of the 2010 bonus babies, Kingham was a quickly rising prospect in the system after pristine numbers in State College last year, but has struggled mightily with the promotion to West Virginia this year. Kingham’s stats this year are putrid, thanks in large part to a high home run ratio, but his upside is similar to McPherson’s and his season last year was good enough to buy him a year on the list. He profiles to be a strong innings-eater type with a low/mid 90s fastball and a plus curve and changeup.
2012 Stats: 18 G/GS, 1-7, 6.06 ERA, 1.462 WHIP, 78.2 IP, 73 K, 27 BB, 2.70 SO/BB, 8.4 SO/9
ETA: 2015
20. Tony Sanchez, C, 24, Indianapolis (AAA)
It sucks when an injury derails a kid’s career. Sanchez took two pitches to the face within a couple weeks of each other in 2010 and the second one knocked him out for the season (with an .870 OPS at the time). That second pitch to the cranium effectively cost him a year of development (he was in-line for a call-up when it happened) and his bat has gone south since then. Sanchez was also drafted as a defensive catcher, but his caught stealing numbers in the minors would make even Rod Barajas blush. I’m keeping him on this list because of his pedigree and upside, but Sanchez profiles to be little more than a platoon catching prospect at this point.
2012 Stats: Altoona (AA): 40 G, .277, 0 HR, 17 RBI, 1 SB, .370/.390/.760
Indianapolis (AAA): 27 G, .245, 4 HR, 11 RBI, 0 SB, .308/.429/.737
ETA: 2013
__________________
“The most terrifying fact about the universe is not that it is hostile, but that it is indifferent. If we can come to terms with this indifference and accept the challenges of life within the boundaries of death, our existence as a species can have genuine meaning and fulfillment. However vast the darkness, we must supply our own light.” - Stanley Kubrick
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