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Pirates: You Kissed Me and Stopped Me From Shaking And I Need You Today, Oh Wandy

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Old
07-16-2012, 02:08 PM
  #26
cassius
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Originally Posted by Jaded-Fan View Post
Heh. I do believe that I have dibs on that call.

The team certainly is not making the playoffs, it just has too many flaws, which have been masked by them winning a lot of one run games early in the year. Their pitching has been pitching over their head all year, and have been very lucky from an injury standpoint, especially with players who have not been known to be durable. The offense has come awake, but are now playing above their heads when they were playing below where they would reasonable have been thought to be earlier in the year.

All in all I hope that Huntington does not fear for his job and go all moron and make trades of the bulk of the future based on some illusion of what this team really is.
Yes you do, haha.

The Pirates overperformed in the 1st half - plain and simple... mostly on the productivity of McCutchen who is perhaps the best players in baseball right now.

There will definitely be a reversion to the mean as guys like James McDonald, Alvarez, and others slowly come back to life. I'll be surprised if they finish over .500.

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07-16-2012, 02:17 PM
  #27
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Yes you do, haha.

The Pirates overperformed in the 1st half - plain and simple... mostly on the productivity of McCutchen who is perhaps the best players in baseball right now.

There will definitely be a reversion to the mean as guys like James McDonald, Alvarez, and others slowly come back to life. I'll be surprised if they finish over .500.
How can you assume every young, unproven player that takes some step forwards is going to take step backs? What is the mean for Alvarez when he has barely any track record in the majors to begin with and was such a high pick and still developing. Yeah, sure some guys may slip back, but this was also a highly underachieving offense for the first 2 month of the season

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07-16-2012, 02:27 PM
  #28
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How can you assume every young, unproven player that takes some step forwards is going to take step backs? What is the mean for Alvarez when he has barely any track record in the majors to begin with and was such a high pick and still developing. Yeah, sure some guys may slip back, but this was also a highly underachieving offense for the first 2 month of the season

Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated points out some of the potholes in the road that could upset the Pirates in the remainder of the season:

How They Collapse: The bullpen is likely to regress. Look at it this way: the Pirates' bullpen is almost half a run better than was the best 'pen in the league last year (Atlanta, 3.03).

Also, the one-run wins are likely to go the other way more often. The Pirates are on a pace for 36 one-run wins -- that would be more one-run wins than for any team in the 19-season history of the six-division format.



http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/201...?sct=mlb_wr_a2

He also points out that Pittsburgh has fattened up on losing teams (25-9). It has the worst record of any division leader against teams at .500 or better (23-28). That screams of a team that is in reality nothing close to its record in terms of being a legit power in the league. Just smoke and mirrors.

He predicts that the Pirates do end up above .500, but honestly anyone who thinks that this is a legit contender, even given how weak the division is, is drinking the coolaide. This is a flawed team, that is likable but playing over its head. That is just reality.

I catch a lot of flack here for my Pirates' opinions, but I do not just pull a rant out of my rear, I do base them on facts and back them up.


Last edited by Jaded-Fan: 07-16-2012 at 02:35 PM.
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07-16-2012, 02:32 PM
  #29
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Cincinnati starts a series @ Arizona tonight and we start our series @ Colorado.

Need Cincy to lose.
Don't get your hopes up. Diamondbacks are terrrrible.

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07-16-2012, 02:35 PM
  #30
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Originally Posted by Jaded-Fan View Post
Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated points out some of the potholes in the road that could upset the Pirates in the remainder of the season:

How They Collapse: The bullpen is likely to regress. Look at it this way: the Pirates' bullpen is almost half a run better than was the best 'pen in the league last year (Atlanta, 3.03).

Also, the one-run wins are likely to go the other way more often. The Pirates are on a pace for 36 one-run wins -- that would be more one-run wins than for any team in the 19-season history of the six-division format.



http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/201...?sct=mlb_wr_a2

He also points out that Pittsburgh has fattened up on losing teams (25-9). It has the worst record of any division leader against teams at .500 or better (23-28).

He predicts that the Pirates do end up above .500, but honestly anyone who thinks that this is a legit contender, even given how weak the division is, is drinking the coolaide. This is a flawed team, that is likable but playing over its head. That is just reality.

I catch a lot of flack here for my Pirates' opinions, but I do not just pull a rant out of my rear, I do base them on facts and back them up.
We have a schedule loaded with teams under .500 the rest of the way which is worth noting. Those records above show 34 games against teams under .500 and 51 against teams over and our schedule going forward has a lot of Cubs and Astros on it because of it.

Not saying this team is loaded or can't slip at all, but those just assuming that they have to slip because guys like Walker, Alvarez, McDonald, etc have to slip is also a little harsh when these are all guys with legitimate upside that are still developing, and esp with the likes of Alvarez and Walker to a lesser degree, really were not even good for the first 2 months or incredible right now.

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07-16-2012, 02:37 PM
  #31
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Originally Posted by Pick87your71Poison View Post
We have a schedule loaded with teams under .500 the rest of the way which is worth noting. Those records above show 34 games against teams under .500 and 51 against teams over and our schedule going forward has a lot of Cubs and Astros on it because of it.
Yeah, are the Pirates really going to win 75% of their games against those teams like they have so far? Like I said, a LOT of breaks have gone the Pirates way thus far. Far more than breaks that have broken against them. To count on them continuing is madness.

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07-16-2012, 02:43 PM
  #32
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Yeah, are the Pirates really going to win 75% of their games against those teams like they have so far? Like I said, a LOT of breaks have gone the Pirates way thus far. Far more than breaks that have broken against them. To count on them continuing is madness.
They don't have to win 75% of those games though. People are not saying this team will or needs to win 90+ games. I believe they have 48 games left with teams under .500, plenty of which are the Astros, Cubs, Padres, etc that are way under .500. If they can go something like 28-20 which I know is no guarantee but is certainly doable and only a 58% win %, then they are already at 77-59. Then even going something pretty ugly like 8-18 in the other 26 games still puts them at 85-77.

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07-16-2012, 02:47 PM
  #33
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Great prospect write up. I just have one question. Why are you happy that Appel didn't sign? Don't get me wrong, I can live with waiting a year and drafting 9th as an alternative to losing next year's 1st rounder. But why wouldn't you want another potential #1-#2 pitcher?

That said, I do share your excitement with Mathisen. Having a young catcher who can actually move well enough to block pitches would be nice. Sanchez sucks. Barajas also sucks.

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07-16-2012, 02:47 PM
  #34
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the first step for the Pirates is to have a winning season. it's nice they're still in the division race, but they're not as stacked as the other "powerhouse" teams in the league.

i would be extremely happy with a winning season first. i'd be ecstatic over a playoff berth, though. IMO the winning season with no playoffs is the more likely scenario of the two.

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07-16-2012, 03:12 PM
  #35
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Baseball schedules are ridiculous. There are seriously only 6 more days off until the season ends in october. I would love to follow the Pirates like I do the Penguins and Steelers, but there are just too many freaking games

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07-16-2012, 04:07 PM
  #36
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All i want from the Bucs is a .501 record at the end of the season. Playoffs would just be a bonus.

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07-16-2012, 04:10 PM
  #37
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Originally Posted by CaseyPierroZabotel17 View Post
All i want from the Bucs is a .501 record at the end of the season. Playoffs would just be a bonus.
you greedy son of a...

I just want .500 to break the losing season streak

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07-16-2012, 04:23 PM
  #38
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I would trade another five losing seasons where we only won ten games a year for new ownership.

Surprising fact though, did you all know that Robert Nutting was the tenth richest team owner in all of baseball? Honestly, I did not expect that. I always assumed that it was a situation like that Barden guy who bought the casino but really did not have any money to actually build the damn thing.

I did a google search actually expecting the opposite to put here, that the Nuttings were struggling and that we needed new ownership with the money that they could spend on the team, and was honestly completely surprised to find that Mr. Nutting is one of the richest owners in baseball. Am I the only one surprised to learn that?

10. Robert Nutting (Nutting Family)
Estimated net worth: $1.1 billion
Team: Pittsburgh Pirates

The 10th-richest owner is the chairman and principal owner of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Robert Nutting. According to Wealth-X, the net worth of Nutting and his family comes to $1.1 billion, with a majority ($630 million) arising from their ownership of Ogden Newspapers, which owns papers in 13 states, according to the company’s website. Other assets include an estimated $250 million stake in the Pirates, a $95 million stake in Pennsylvania’s Seven Springs Mountain Resort and approximately $130 million in liquid assets.


http://www.cnbc.com/id/46941774/The_...Owners?slide=2

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07-16-2012, 04:46 PM
  #39
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I can see the Bucco's and Reds rivalry coming back for sure.
The Pirates and Reds had a great rivalry in the 70's. I didn't list it in the "hated rivalry" question. As these two teams had a great deal of respect for each. (Might have had more dislike had they shared the same division)

You had the Lumber Company of the 70's. A great hitting team that featured a feared lineup. In this decade the Pirates won their division 6 times, had 2 NL Pennants and 2 World Series wins.

And in Cicny you had the Big Red Machine. Also a tremendous offensive force in the decade. During the 70's the Reds won their division 5 times, had 4 NL Pennants, and also won 2 World Series.

These were the two premier teams in the National league during the 70's.

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07-16-2012, 05:00 PM
  #40
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Originally Posted by Dread Pirate Roberts View Post
Great prospect write up. I just have one question. Why are you happy that Appel didn't sign? Don't get me wrong, I can live with waiting a year and drafting 9th as an alternative to losing next year's 1st rounder. But why wouldn't you want another potential #1-#2 pitcher?

That said, I do share your excitement with Mathisen. Having a young catcher who can actually move well enough to block pitches would be nice. Sanchez sucks. Barajas also sucks.
I'm not happy he didn't sign, but the kid has done everything in the book to make me hate his guts since being drafted. Regardless of that, I still would have been quite thrilled had he signed, if only because he'd be a valuable asset to have.

Listen, Appel was better than anyone else on the board when we picked. We're unlikely to draft a player of Appel's caliber #9 next year and we can't afford to take a real risky player there because compensation picks don't carry over, so we need to sign that #9 pick or we just lose it...but we still come out of the situation just fine since that #9 pick is still likely to be better than any non-Appel player on the board this year. I think Appel stands to lose more than the Pirates do.

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07-16-2012, 05:09 PM
  #41
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Originally Posted by Jaded-Fan View Post
I would trade another five losing seasons where we only won ten games a year for new ownership.

Surprising fact though, did you all know that Robert Nutting was the tenth richest team owner in all of baseball? Honestly, I did not expect that. I always assumed that it was a situation like that Barden guy who bought the casino but really did not have any money to actually build the damn thing.

I did a google search actually expecting the opposite to put here, that the Nuttings were struggling and that we needed new ownership with the money that they could spend on the team, and was honestly completely surprised to find that Mr. Nutting is one of the richest owners in baseball. Am I the only one surprised to learn that?

10. Robert Nutting (Nutting Family)
Estimated net worth: $1.1 billion
Team: Pittsburgh Pirates

The 10th-richest owner is the chairman and principal owner of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Robert Nutting. According to Wealth-X, the net worth of Nutting and his family comes to $1.1 billion, with a majority ($630 million) arising from their ownership of Ogden Newspapers, which owns papers in 13 states, according to the company’s website. Other assets include an estimated $250 million stake in the Pirates, a $95 million stake in Pennsylvania’s Seven Springs Mountain Resort and approximately $130 million in liquid assets.


http://www.cnbc.com/id/46941774/The_...Owners?slide=2
I didn't know it was that high, but I knew having the money to spend was never even close to an issue.

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07-16-2012, 05:33 PM
  #42
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I didn't know it was that high, but I knew having the money to spend was never even close to an issue.
I freely admit that I was shocked. I did the google search expecting the opposite result, and to support wanting him to sell the team. I always just figured that given his family was all in newspapers, and crappy ones to boot, that he was one of the poorer owners in sports who needed the Pirate revenue sharing money to make ends meet. If anything this makes my opinion of him even worse though. He has the money, he just refuses to spend it. Like I said before, Nutting makes it far too easy to take shots at him. I do differentiate between the owner and the team though. Yeah I do a lot of slamming but it is all aimed at ownership. The team is likable, and most of the players on the team seem like great guys.

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07-16-2012, 05:40 PM
  #43
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Originally Posted by Big McLargehuge View Post
I'm not happy he didn't sign, but the kid has done everything in the book to make me hate his guts since being drafted. Regardless of that, I still would have been quite thrilled had he signed, if only because he'd be a valuable asset to have.

Listen, Appel was better than anyone else on the board when we picked. We're unlikely to draft a player of Appel's caliber #9 next year and we can't afford to take a real risky player there because compensation picks don't carry over, so we need to sign that #9 pick or we just lose it...but we still come out of the situation just fine since that #9 pick is still likely to be better than any non-Appel player on the board this year. I think Appel stands to lose more than the Pirates do.
If his issue was money, couldn't they just sign him to what he wanted, then just trade him at this year's trade deadline? He probably didn't want to be a part of this organization anyway (who does). I'm guessing a prospect of his caliber has a lot of trade value.

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07-16-2012, 06:03 PM
  #44
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Some tidbits listening to Bucco talk throughout the day.

Danny Knobler, baseball writer for CBS sports was on talking trade deadline on the FAN this morning. Just mentioned that "these things (trade talks) are so fluid. Probably much more than fans realize. Things change on a daily basis. Players go on streaks, teams rattle of a few wins or loses and suddenly their perspective changes. A player gets hot and the owner puts the kibosh on a trade".

Also mentioned that when dealing with trade rumors and reports that baseball writers get, as much as they try to put the best info out there, people (baseball execs, agents, etc.) will lie in order to further their own means. Basically a reminder to take everything you hear during this time with a grain of salt.

Later in the day during the Appel talk, Joe Starkey said that Scott Boras called him up and proceeded to scream bloody murder to him for Starkey saying that Houston offered Appel 6 mill. Boras vehemently denied it. Told Starkey to talk to the Houston GM, as reportedly he has already denied the 6 mill report also. I thought it was funny on a lot of levels. One being that Boras was listening to Starkey, so obviously he was checking out Pittsburgh radio. Also that Boras is aware of a how much of an idiot he looks like with the 6mill rumor out there. Or else it wouldn't bother him so much. And that so many times I have heard Starkey say, "we contacted Scott Boras and there was no response." Now Boras is calling him, lol. Typing that about Boras and connecting that with what Knobler said about how rumors are basically planted out there, to help someone out and sometimes sabotage others, it could very well be that Boras is telling the truth and the 6mill report is bogus. Who knows. Of course given Boras and his rep., almost everyone is going to buy that report of the Houston 6 mill. offer being true.

Heard some GMNH talk. Some good stuff.

Was asked about the Shane Victorino, and Upton rumors, and are the Pirates interested in them?

"Well since those guys are under contract to opposing teams it would tampering to express any specific interest in any player. But I will say this, we are being VERY AGGRESSIVE in our approach. We have called out every single seller out there. And, I think they are getting annoyed with us, but we have also been calling the bubble teams as well."

More on the trade talk a few questions later.

"We are willing to GIVE UP A LOT. Probably more than some people out there would like to see us give up. But we are not going to mortgage the future."

Was asked what players in the organization are untouchables.

"We do not have player that is untouchable. And invariably when I say this I have the same 6 GM's that call me up and try to make a trade for Andrew McCutchen." Then he named a few GM's, (Epstein is the only one I can remember) as having the philosophy that no player is untouchable. And he was saying he subscribes to the same. He mentioned that they don't have untouchables, but there are players that would be very, very, very hard for other teams to acquire. My guess is that he is saying this because if a player got beyond their comfortable price range, he would be moved. And then no fans can come back with the "you said player X would NEVER BE TRADED." jmo. Very lucky for us that he signed Cutch when he did and got the price that he did. (hopefully we keep him during his high priced years.) Later the hosts were praising that contract. Asking, could you imagine if they didn't sign McCutchen and they were starting negotiations now??? Those numbers would be a lot different.

Was asked when Starling Marte was coming up?

Didn't sound like he wanted to bring him up anytime soon.

"We took the patient approach with McCutchen and Walker, and that has worked out pretty well. When we were aggressive in our timeline with bringing up Pedro, Brad Lincoln and Presely, they all scuffled." There is something to be said for taking it level by level.
Neil mentioned 700 Ab's as a benchmark. Wasn't quite sure if was talking total minor league Ab's prior to the bigs.

Heard a quick blurb with Clint Hurdle being asked if the Pirates needed to go out and acquire a bat? And he responded that they indeed need to take that action.

If I remember anymore I will update this post later in an edit, instead of another post, so if interested, check back.

EDIT: GMNH said that it is a big sellers market right now. And that the "asks" are incredibly high. And, "as someone that caught a lot of grief in my first 3 to 4 years, for asking high value on marginal players, I can certainly understand were they are coming from. But the asks are probably the highest that I have ever seen them. But if you want to make a deal this early in the trade deadline period, you pay a hefty premium. We will see if the asks come down as we get closer to the trade deadline."

This was a few weeks ago, but NH has said that he believes the league will see a record number of trades, after the non waiver trade deadline period.


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Old
07-16-2012, 06:06 PM
  #45
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If his issue was money, couldn't they just sign him to what he wanted, then just trade him at this year's trade deadline? He probably didn't want to be a part of this organization anyway (who does). I'm guessing a prospect of his caliber has a lot of trade value.
Well we'd have forfeited our first round pick next year...there's no way in hell Appel was worth potentially three first round picks (compensation lottery as well).

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07-16-2012, 06:10 PM
  #46
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Well we'd have forfeited our first round pick next year...there's no way in hell Appel was worth potentially three first round picks (compensation lottery as well).
I get the impression that Boras threw Appel under the bus to try and prove a point. Honestly, the chances are very great that Appel gets screwed in this.

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07-16-2012, 06:12 PM
  #47
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Td_ice, thanks for sharing. Very interesting stuff.

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07-16-2012, 06:23 PM
  #48
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Was asked when Starling Marte was coming up?

Didn't sound like he wanted to bring him up anytime soon.

"We took the patient approach with McCutchen and Walker, and that has worked out pretty well. When we were aggressive in our timeline with bringing up Pedro, Brad Lincoln and Presely, they all scuffled." There is something to be said for taking it level by level.
Neil mentioned 700 Ab's as a benchmark. Wasn't quite sure if was talking total minor league Ab's prior to the bigs.

Don't know how Lincoln, Presely or Alvarez were considered rushes. Presely has over 2600 AB's (way more than either McCutchen and Walker and Presley was a college pick) in the minors and smashed AA and AAA. Lincoln played good chunks of 3 seasons in AAA and didn't stick in MLB until he was 27. Alvarez was the consensus best hitter in college baseball his draft year and raked in AA and AAA in the 2009 & 2010 seasons. None of those guys was rushed in any sense of the word and it just reeks of ******** to make an excuse as for why Marte isn't on the MLB roster.

They weren't patient with Walker as much as he sucked at hitting AAA pitching. He was a .260/.310 hitter over 1200 AB's in AAA. I still can't believe how well Walker has hit in the majors considering his track record. His last 180 AB's were the only good ones he ever had in AAA. I hate how NH makes it sound like it was part of his plan for Walker to suck in AAA and then hit well at the MLB level. I guess this is the plan for Tony Sanchez then.

Just hate this kind of double-talk.

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07-16-2012, 06:25 PM
  #49
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Td_ice, thanks for sharing. Very interesting stuff.
You bet sniugneP. If I remember anymore, I will update that post.

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07-16-2012, 06:26 PM
  #50
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I get the impression that Boras threw Appel under the bus to try and prove a point. Honestly, the chances are very great that Appel gets screwed in this.
We're definitely on the same page here. Appel and the Pirates were pawns in Boras's game. After Appel made his post-draft comment it was clear that the only way he was going to sign was if he ditched Boras. He stands to lose a lot in this...Boras doesn't care, he's preparing himself for war with MLB over this.

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