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Old
07-17-2012, 04:39 PM
  #1
dynastyREredux
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Hockey Prosuectus Habs Top 10

Interesting, thoughtful piece,

http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/arti...articleid=1351

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07-17-2012, 04:52 PM
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Estimated_Prophet
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Tinordi should absolutely be ahead of Gallagher and Kristo......especially Kristo. It was pretty bold to put Collberg at #2 but I can't say that I totally disagree with it as he is definitely the best bet amongst our forward prospects to play in the top six.

Thrower was also too low imo and should have been ahead of Bozon for sure.....Timmins obviously thinks so.

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07-17-2012, 05:04 PM
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MXD
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Pretty good paper, though his ranking obviously biased toward ceiling (as opposed to likeliest to reach the ceiling). That's pretty much the only way to explain Hudon's ranking (behind Thrower!!!) at this point (...in which case, why is he behind Kristo and Gallagher...? I don't know... I would never rank him behind Gallagher, but I feel Hudon and Kristo are way closer than everybody says... Especially here).

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07-17-2012, 05:06 PM
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The skill may be there but the cumulative lack of size among the forward prospects is worrisome. That should be addressed in the next draft or in trades.

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07-17-2012, 05:08 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MXD View Post
Pretty good paper, though his ranking obviously biased toward ceiling (as opposed to likeliest to reach the ceiling). That's pretty much the only way to explain Hudon's ranking (behind Thrower!!!) at this point (...in which case, why is he behind Kristo and Gallagher...? I don't know... I would never rank him behind Gallagher, but I feel Hudon and Kristo are way closer than everybody says... Especially here).
You'd have to read a few of his other pieces explaining his thought process behind his rankings.

Couple of things: he sees defensemen as riskier projections and ranks them lower. possession skills are his driving factor when ranking players (explains hudon being very high). he doesn't put a whole lot of stock in intangibles. goaltender prospects have almost no value to him. he usually likes prospects with very high ceilings, but revises his rankings pretty regularly.

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07-17-2012, 05:13 PM
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MXD
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shutdown View Post
You'd have to read a few of his other pieces explaining his thought process behind his rankings.

Couple of things: he sees defensemen as riskier projections and ranks them lower. possession skills are his driving factor when ranking players (explains hudon being very high). he doesn't put a whole lot of stock in intangibles. goaltender prospects have almost no value to him. he usually likes prospects with very high ceilings, but revises his rankings pretty regularly.
Then the rankings are extremely coherent. Might explain why he has something for Archambeault as well.

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07-17-2012, 05:14 PM
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Interesting that he has Kristo so high. I always get the feeling that Kristo should be more dominant for his age, if he's going to end up a top 6 forward.

Also surprising to see Avtsyn above Dietz and Holland. Regardless of his skills, given his lack of production, I can't see AA developping into a player that can be relied on to put up points. I've never seen anyone claim that he has the skillset to adapt to any other role.

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07-17-2012, 10:44 PM
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Interesting ranking.. I know everyone think very highly of Tinordi and I do too cause he has alot of intangibles he can bring to the table in the future, but his puck skills are pretty horrible.. I think he will struggle alot to make the transition to the AHL, then the NHL..

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07-17-2012, 10:50 PM
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Watsatheo
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Roulin View Post
Interesting that he has Kristo so high. I always get the feeling that Kristo should be more dominant for his age, if he's going to end up a top 6 forward.

Also surprising to see Avtsyn above Dietz and Holland. Regardless of his skills, given his lack of production, I can't see AA developping into a player that can be relied on to put up points. I've never seen anyone claim that he has the skillset to adapt to any other role.
Well he was top 10 in the NCAA in points last season...

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Old
07-18-2012, 01:48 AM
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... whats a "Hockey Prosuectus"?

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Old
07-18-2012, 08:34 AM
  #11
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Montreal Canadiens Top 10 Prospects
1. Alexander Galchenyuk, Center
2. Sebastian Collberg, Right Wing
3. Nathan Beaulieu, Defense
4. Danny Kristo, Right Wing
5. Brendan Gallagher, Right Wing
6. Jarred Tinordi, Defense
7. Tim Bozon, Left Wing
8. Charles Hudon, Left Wing
9. Michael Bournival, Center
10. Morgan Ellis, Defense

Some of his rankings are way out in left field. Collberg should be #6 and Tinordi #2 or 3. Hudon should be nowhere near the top 10. Ellis should be a few notches higher. Galchenyuk is right, Beaulieu is about right and Kristo and Gallagher are also.

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Old
07-18-2012, 08:39 AM
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rockjngo
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amateur site. louis leblanc isn't on this list. Collberg is good but #2?, I think Leblanc should be top 5.

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07-18-2012, 08:42 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Carey Price View Post
Montreal Canadiens Top 10 Prospects
1. Alexander Galchenyuk, Center
2. Sebastian Collberg, Right Wing
3. Nathan Beaulieu, Defense
4. Danny Kristo, Right Wing
5. Brendan Gallagher, Right Wing
6. Jarred Tinordi, Defense
7. Tim Bozon, Left Wing
8. Charles Hudon, Left Wing
9. Michael Bournival, Center
10. Morgan Ellis, Defense

Some of his rankings are way out in left field. Collberg should be #6 and Tinordi #2 or 3. Hudon should be nowhere near the top 10. Ellis should be a few notches higher. Galchenyuk is right, Beaulieu is about right and Kristo and Gallagher are also.
That's his opinion. He also makes a living off his opinion, I think it's safe to say he isn't way out in left field. I, for one, think Collberg is the 2nd best prospect the Habs have. Tinordi has zero puck skills, that's why he isn't ranked #2 or #3.

Now, I don't think Hudon is top10, but Pronman had him in his top60 I think this year, he is fan and he is sticking by what he thinks, nothing wrong with that.

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Old
07-18-2012, 08:43 AM
  #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rockjngo View Post
amateur site. louis leblanc isn't on this list. Collberg is good but #2?, I think Leblanc should be top 5.
Actually it's a pro site. If you read the entire thing, maybe you'd know why Leblanc isn't on the first list.

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Old
07-18-2012, 08:44 AM
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Lars The GOAT Eller
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rockjngo View Post
amateur site. louis leblanc isn't on this list. Collberg is good but #2?, I think Leblanc should be top 5.
I'm guessing he graduated

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Old
07-18-2012, 09:09 AM
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Watsatheo
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Carey Price View Post
Montreal Canadiens Top 10 Prospects
1. Alexander Galchenyuk, Center
2. Sebastian Collberg, Right Wing
3. Nathan Beaulieu, Defense
4. Danny Kristo, Right Wing
5. Brendan Gallagher, Right Wing
6. Jarred Tinordi, Defense
7. Tim Bozon, Left Wing
8. Charles Hudon, Left Wing
9. Michael Bournival, Center
10. Morgan Ellis, Defense

Some of his rankings are way out in left field. Collberg should be #6 and Tinordi #2 or 3. Hudon should be nowhere near the top 10. Ellis should be a few notches higher. Galchenyuk is right, Beaulieu is about right and Kristo and Gallagher are also.
Not sure what you mean by left field as he clearly presents the good/bad/projection in his opinion of the prospects in his rankings. It's not like he ranked Engqvist our #1 prospect...not sure you can say anything is 'right' or 'wrong'.

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Old
07-18-2012, 09:15 AM
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Roulin
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Watsatheo View Post
Well he was top 10 in the NCAA in points last season...
According to this site, Kristo was 29th in Pts/G. I don't know where to find the list of raw point producers in order, but I count 20 players with more than him. Maybe you were looking at his division only?

http://www.ncaa.com/stats/icehockey-.../individual/99

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Old
07-18-2012, 09:32 AM
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Cool, so now you can copy/paste ever scouting report label it The Good & The Bad, and you are as legit as the next blogger? I have to start a new blog I guess.

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07-18-2012, 09:33 AM
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Originally Posted by Habs View Post
Cool, so now you can copy/paste ever scouting report label it The Good & The Bad, and you are as legit as the next blogger? I have to start a new blog I guess.
He works for ESPN as well.

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07-18-2012, 09:38 AM
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montreal
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Roulin View Post
Interesting that he has Kristo so high. I always get the feeling that Kristo should be more dominant for his age, if he's going to end up a top 6 forward.

Also surprising to see Avtsyn above Dietz and Holland. Regardless of his skills, given his lack of production, I can't see AA developping into a player that can be relied on to put up points. I've never seen anyone claim that he has the skillset to adapt to any other role.
Kristo was dominate this year, he played on what may have been the best line in the entire NCAA and he was a huge part of that. He was over a ppg and set career highs across the board. That said I was disappointed that he wasn't more consistent, if he was he would likely have been a top 5 scorer in the league. Hopefully he can work on that this year cause when he wants to he can take over a game with some highlight reel plays.

I don't know how anyone could watch Avtsin all year long and then go and rank him that high. He was so bad and ineffective, granted I understand he has upside but he actually regressed from the previous season and just looks useless out there. Granted maybe this is the year he turns it around, but after such a poor season I wouldn't be able to rank him that high as I have major doubts he will even be able to turn into a solid AHLer.

Quote:
Originally Posted by rockjngo View Post
amateur site. louis leblanc isn't on this list. Collberg is good but #2?, I think Leblanc should be top 5.
Leblanc can be considered graduated to some. I'm surprised to see Collberg that high but the one that really stood out to me was Bozon at 7, which seems really high to me. I only saw him play at the CHL prospects game so I don't have much of an opinion on him but that seems to be a very aggressive ranking.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Roulin View Post
According to this site, Kristo was 29th in Pts/G. I don't know where to find the list of raw point producers in order, but I count 20 players with more than him. Maybe you were looking at his division only?

http://www.ncaa.com/stats/icehockey-.../individual/99
Kristo was tied for 20th in the NCAA in scoring, but 1 more point and he would have been tied for 15th.

http://www.uscho.com/stats/overall/d...men/2011-2012/

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07-18-2012, 09:41 AM
  #21
Watsatheo
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Roulin View Post
According to this site, Kristo was 29th in Pts/G. I don't know where to find the list of raw point producers in order, but I count 20 players with more than him. Maybe you were looking at his division only?

http://www.ncaa.com/stats/icehockey-.../individual/99
http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/t...&leaguenm=WCHA

Yeah I mistakenly took WCHA stats, which if I'm not mistaken is one of the stronger divisions of the NCAA. Regardless, top 20 is good too:
http://www.uscho.com/stats/overall/d...men/2011-2012/

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07-18-2012, 09:44 AM
  #22
montreal
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Originally Posted by Watsatheo View Post
Yeah I mistakenly took WCHA stats, which if I'm not mistaken is one of the stronger divisions of the NCAA. Regardless, top 20 is good too
The WCHA is likely the top conference in the NCAA as it often has the most NHL draft picks, although the Hockey East conference has been winning a number of National Championships between BC and BU, the last few years.

This is the final year for the WCHA though, after that the NCAA will undergo a big facelift by shaking up 2 of it's biggest conferences

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Old
07-18-2012, 10:21 AM
  #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rockjngo View Post
amateur site. louis leblanc isn't on this list. Collberg is good but #2?, I think Leblanc should be top 5.
If you did actually take the time to read the entire page, you'd see he's on the 2nd list.

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Old
07-18-2012, 12:49 PM
  #24
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The Good: Bozon is a pretty well-rounded player. He's an above-average skater and puck-handler who has the gritty element to his game with his speed to be a forechecking pest or effective along the boards. He also has the creativity to make plays on his own and control the puck. He's a pretty good finisher, as he has an above-average shot and arguably a plus one. Bozon gets back on defense well and also plays with a bit of an edge.

The Bad: Aside from needing to bulk up, Bozon doesn't have a clear weakness to his game other than he lacks true standout skills.

Sounds like he just described Alex Burrows, with a better shot. Hope Tim can develop into such a player. That would be awesome!

I really like Corey's list(s). By NO MEANS am I an expert, and for all these players, I have limited-to-no viewings, but I seem to value the same attributes he does. I voted for Collberg starting at #2 on our board and until he eventually got chosen by the majority. I find them to be especially helpful for fantasy purposes too!

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Old
07-18-2012, 01:18 PM
  #25
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I don't know how anyone could watch Avtsin all year long and then go and rank him that high. He was so bad and ineffective, granted I understand he has upside but he actually regressed from the previous season and just looks useless out there. Granted maybe this is the year he turns it around, but after such a poor season I wouldn't be able to rank him that high as I have major doubts he will even be able to turn into a solid AHLer.
His explanation.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Corey Pronman on Twitter
Gotten a few emails on Habs ranking saying I have Avtsin way too high at 12. As an FYI compared to scouts I've talked to I'm lower on him

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