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Weber Signs OS w/ Philly (14 yrs, $110 mil - $7.85 mil cap hit) Mod Warning Post 364

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07-20-2012, 01:29 AM
  #726
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Originally Posted by 29dryden29 View Post
The bolded section can not be done Weber has signed the sheet no trade can be arranged till after the first year of the new deal is completed.
Great post, ILIILI, but this is correct. Once a player has signed an offer sheet they cannot be traded. Poile only has two options now, and if he decides to match he still cannot trade Weber until year 2 of the contract begins.

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07-20-2012, 01:34 AM
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I don't see Holmgren agreeing to anything like this. Apparently the asking price for Weber was Brayden Schenn and Coots and Holmgren said no and floated the offer sheet from what Dregger was saying on TSN. YOu know Poile will still want one of those guys and I just do not see Holmgren saying yes to that.
The leverage has changed. Now Poile has a gun to his head. But he still might be able to swing Voracek, Simmonds or Read if he can convince Holmgren he might be enough of a madman to match the offer.


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Great post, ILIILI, but this is correct. Once a player has signed an offer sheet they cannot be traded. Poile only has two options now, and if he decides to match he still cannot trade Weber until year 2 of the contract begins.
No one is talking about Weber being traded (an impossibility). Any trade would be a separate transaction contingent on Poile declining his RoFR.

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07-20-2012, 01:36 AM
  #728
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Great post, ILIILI, but this is correct. Once a player has signed an offer sheet they cannot be traded. Poile only has two options now, and if he decides to match he still cannot trade Weber until year 2 of the contract begins.
Perhaps we don't match, we then turn around and trade the first round picks back to Philly for something?

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07-20-2012, 01:40 AM
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Perhaps we don't match, we then turn around and trade the first round picks back to Philly for something?
But with them all likely being very low I am figuring the bottom 8 in the draft order will Holmgren want to give up anything of value for them?

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07-20-2012, 01:41 AM
  #730
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Perhaps we don't match, we then turn around and trade the first round picks back to Philly for something?
I think the only way we do that is if there is some sort of understanding of what the return will be. Even then it's a huge risk. It is possible, though.

At the end of the day I think the ownership takes the gamble and matches. No one ever became powerful without taking chances.

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07-20-2012, 01:44 AM
  #731
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I think the only way we do that is if there is some sort of understanding of what the return will be. Even then it's a huge risk. It is possible, though.

At the end of the day I think the ownership takes the gamble and matches. No one ever became powerful without taking chances.
How are the Predators going to sustain on-ice success if they match? Weber is not going to be the only source of salary inflation over the next 4 years.


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07-20-2012, 01:44 AM
  #732
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Originally Posted by Damaged Goods View Post
The leverage has changed. Now Poile has a gun to his head. But he still might be able to swing Voracek, Simmonds or Read if he can convince Holmgren he might be enough of a madman to match the offer.




No one is talking about Weber being traded (an impossibility). Any trade would be a separate transaction contingent on Poile declining his RoFR.
Be that as it may, I read it as Poile deciding not to match and then trading Weber. I could be wrong, but my response was tailored towards that being what the poster meant.

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07-20-2012, 01:47 AM
  #733
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Originally Posted by Damaged Goods View Post
How are the Predators going to sustain on-ice success if they match? Weber is not going to be the only source of salary inflation over the next 4 years.

Do you have some sort of insider information on the finances of the team that I don't have, because as far as I know the owners have been saying they are prepared to begin spending more. Let's not forget that non-hockey events bring in a good amount of money, too. Money from which the owners of the Preds can benefit. Not only that, but a billionaire was brought in as a minority share holder in the team last year. Also, it isn't out of the question to borrow the money for the largest chunk of the contract. I won't pretend to know which options are reasonable since I'm not privy to all relevant financial information, but I don't think the Preds are backed into the corner a lot of people are assuming they are. Not because of money, anyway.

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07-20-2012, 01:59 AM
  #734
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Do you have some sort of insider information on the finances of the team that I don't have, because as far as I know the owners have been saying they are prepared to begin spending more. Let's not forget that non-hockey events bring in a good amount of money, too. Money from which the owners of the Preds can benefit. Not only that, but a billionaire was brought in as a minority share holder in the team last year. Also, it isn't out of the question to borrow the money for the largest chunk of the contract. I won't pretend to know which options are reasonable since I'm not privy to all relevant financial information, but I don't think the Preds are backed into the corner a lot of people are assuming they are. Not because of money, anyway.
I didn't claim to know, I merely asked the question.

The problem is that they are going to have to spend wildly more money not to improve, but just to stand still.

Your answer is that they are going to start spending like Detroit, New York, Philadelphia, Boston, Pittsburgh, Vancouver, etc. to get over the hump. OK. That's one way that they could do it, but I am highly skeptical until I see it. It doesn't seem to make sense in their market.

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07-20-2012, 02:07 AM
  #735
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Originally Posted by Damaged Goods View Post

The problem is that they are going to have to spend wildly more money not to improve, but just to stand still.
A flyers fan would know something about this, no?

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07-20-2012, 02:08 AM
  #736
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Originally Posted by Damaged Goods View Post
I didn't claim to know, I merely asked the question.

The problem is that they are going to have to spend wildly more money not to improve, but just to stand still.

Your answer is that they are going to start spending like Detroit, New York, Philadelphia, Boston, Pittsburgh, Vancouver, etc. to get over the hump. OK. That's one way that they could do it, but I am highly skeptical until I see it. It doesn't seem to make sense in their market.
They still need to make the cap floor. They can pay Weber and still be pretty far from the cap. The bigger risk is if there is a CBA caused labor stoppage can they afford to pay the bonus? That may be the bigger worry

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07-20-2012, 02:08 AM
  #737
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I'm losing a tiny bit of respect for Dreger. He's repeatedly saying--on his blog, on SportsCentre and on TSN Radio--that, by signing the offer sheet, "Shea Weber has made it clear he wants out of Nashville." I'm rather astonished that such a respected hockey expert would not only read the situation at face value and run with it (we trust experts because they can see past face value), but would present that speculation as fact.

What he should be saying is that it's clear that Weber doesn't mind leaving, but, on the other hand, he also doesn't mind staying. That's the only reasonable reading of the situation, considering the two potential outcomes. It's also the more professional and expert take, IMO, and exactly the reading that fellow analyst Hradek gives in the link posted on the last page.

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07-20-2012, 02:13 AM
  #738
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Originally Posted by Damaged Goods View Post
I didn't claim to know, I merely asked the question.

The problem is that they are going to have to spend wildly more money not to improve, but just to stand still.

Your answer is that they are going to start spending like Detroit, New York, Philadelphia, Boston, Pittsburgh, Vancouver, etc. to get over the hump. OK. That's one way that they could do it, but I am highly skeptical until I see it. It doesn't seem to make sense in their market.
There's a term for this sort of thing. It's called "cognitive dissonance". Having assumed for so long that Nashville is and must be a budget team, it's a bit of a shock and a revelation to discover that they can be and in fact are working towards becoming a cap team. Suter leaving, however, has somewhat screwed that plan.

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07-20-2012, 02:16 AM
  #739
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Originally Posted by Viqsi View Post
There's a term for this sort of thing. It's called "cognitive dissonance". Having assumed for so long that Nashville is and must be a budget team, it's a bit of a shock and a revelation to discover that they can be and in fact are working towards becoming a cap team. Suter leaving, however, has somewhat screwed that plan.
I think you are probably right. Poile's plan was to resign Weber and Suter to significant deals. My guess is Poile woud have gradually gotten to the Salary cap over the next couple of seasons afterwards. The franchise would have appreciated in value as a result, so doing so would only make sense.

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07-20-2012, 02:17 AM
  #740
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They still need to make the cap floor. They can pay Weber and still be pretty far from the cap. The bigger risk is if there is a CBA caused labor stoppage can they afford to pay the bonus? That may be the bigger worry
It's not about the cap, but the payroll IMO.

If the Preds match, payroll this year will be at least $60 M (assuming no rollbacks). Then next year they have to contend with 7 of their own RFAs and 4 UFA, so you add whatever raises those players get on top of what they make now. We're talking $65-70 M for next year's payroll just to maintain the status quo, unless the new CBA puts a major lid RFA earnings. And in order for the owners to win that kind of CBA, it's probably going to take a long lockout. A lockout where Shea Weber's signing bonus will be protected no matter what.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Viqsi View Post
There's a term for this sort of thing. It's called "cognitive dissonance". Having assumed for so long that Nashville is and must be a budget team, it's a bit of a shock and a revelation to discover that they can be and in fact are working towards becoming a cap team. Suter leaving, however, has somewhat screwed that plan.
I am not being irrational to wait and see Nashville actually become a cap team before I start calling them one.

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07-20-2012, 02:27 AM
  #741
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Originally Posted by Damaged Goods View Post



I am not being irrational to wait and see Nashville actually become a cap team before I start calling them one.


we appreciate your patience.

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07-20-2012, 02:32 AM
  #742
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It's not about the cap, but the payroll IMO.

If the Preds match, payroll this year will be at least $60 M (assuming no rollbacks). Then next year they have to contend with 7 of their own RFAs and 4 UFA, so you add whatever raises those players get on top of what they make now. We're talking $65-70 M for next year's payroll just to maintain the status quo, unless the new CBA puts a major lid RFA earnings. And in order for the owners to win that kind of CBA, it's probably going to take a long lockout. A lockout where Shea Weber's signing bonus will be protected no matter what.




I am not being irrational to wait and see Nashville actually become a cap team before I start calling them one.
I thought he will make 14 million next season

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07-20-2012, 02:32 AM
  #743
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I can't wait till the new CBA does away with all this front loaded non sense. It's just another way the rich teams get an unfair advantage.


Teams like Philly can just wait around while other teams draft young studs, develop them properly through their system, watch them become superstars and then use an unfair negotiating tactic to rip that player away from the club that did all the work.

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07-20-2012, 02:37 AM
  #744
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I think there is some confusion about cap hits and bonuses. With the offer sheet Weber just signed, he's due to make $1 million in salary and $26 million in bonuses next year. That bonus is owed to him regardless of a lockout (which could very well happen.)

Source for salary and bonus information: http://www.tsn.ca/blogs/darren_dreger/?id=401000

Even if we only lose 10-20 games this season to work stoppage, that's still a lot of revenue (ticket sales, advertising, TV deals etc.) to loss for a franchise that doesn't have a corporate backing - the Flyers are owned by Comcast - and that failed to turn a profit last season, even after a deep playoff run.

This article has a good breakdown of Nashville's financial situation: http://www.tennessean.com/article/20...s-public-money


Last edited by TheSkatingDutchman: 07-20-2012 at 02:50 AM. Reason: Removed obligatory "Flyers fan here" because I am a derp.
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07-20-2012, 02:39 AM
  #745
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I'm losing a tiny bit of respect for Dreger. He's repeatedly saying--on his blog, on SportsCentre and on TSN Radio--that, by signing the offer sheet, "Shea Weber has made it clear he wants out of Nashville." I'm rather astonished that such a respected hockey expert would not only read the situation at face value and run with it (we trust experts because they can see past face value), but would present that speculation as fact.

What he should be saying is that it's clear that Weber doesn't mind leaving, but, on the other hand, he also doesn't mind staying. That's the only reasonable reading of the situation, considering the two potential outcomes. It's also the more professional and expert take, IMO, and exactly the reading that fellow analyst Hradek gives in the link posted on the last page.
But his agent pretty much came out and said it. Something to the effect that on July 4th (when Suter left) things changed. Now it could be agent speak, but I don't know what financial incentive he would have to say that. He's getting the same contract in Nashville as he would in Philly.

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07-20-2012, 02:42 AM
  #746
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Originally Posted by predfan24 View Post
I can't wait till the new CBA does away with all this front loaded non sense. It's just another way the rich teams get an unfair advantage.


Teams like Philly can just wait around while other teams draft young studs, develop them properly through their system, watch them become superstars and then use an unfair negotiating tactic to rip that player away from the club that did all the work.
And Weber did all the work from the player's side to put himself in this position where he was a highly-coveted free agent.

Per Dreger, the Predators could have signed Weber for 3 years / $21 million last summer but elected to take him to salary arbitration instead.


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I thought he will make 14 million next season
Right. Next season and the next 3 after that. That's what my payroll projections were based on.


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But his agent pretty much came out and said it. Something to the effect that on July 4th (when Suter left) things changed. Now it could be agent speak, but I don't know what financial incentive he would have to say that. He's getting the same contract in Nashville as he would in Philly.
http://iphone.tsn.ca/tsnpodcasts/Bousquet.mp3



TSN: Would it be your opinion that you hope the Predators don't match?

Bosquet: Well I think when we looked at the other options, and looking at ownership stability, hockey operations, the team... And then you gotta look at the other side. He just got engaged, stability for your family, security for your family moving forward and where you want to live. So I don't think you sign an offer sheet unless you're pointing in that one direction... So to answer your question, it's really up to [the Predators]. He'd really like to play with the Philadelphia Flyers. We all feel that he's just another piece in the puzzle to take them to the next level and he doesn't want to go through a rebuilding process again.


It's probably too strong to say that Weber "wants out" of Nashville, but it appears that the clear preference is for Philadelphia.


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07-20-2012, 02:44 AM
  #747
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I can't wait till the new CBA does away with all this front loaded non sense. It's just another way the rich teams get an unfair advantage.


Teams like Philly can just wait around while other teams draft young studs, develop them properly through their system, watch them become superstars and then use an unfair negotiating tactic to rip that player away from the club that did all the work.
because holmgren put a gun to webers head...

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07-20-2012, 02:50 AM
  #748
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And Weber did all the work from the player's side to put himself in this position where he was a highly-coveted free agent.

Per Dreger, the Predators could have signed Weber for 3 years / $21 million last summer but elected to take him to salary arbitration instead.




Right. Next season and the next 3 after that. That's what my payroll projections were based on.
Yes he did he also got extremely lucky to be a free agent in this the last summer where likely this front loaded lifetime deals will be allowed.

Had these types of deals not be allowed Preds could easily match even an 8 million cap hit for even 10ish years. Also it limits the power of a small market team when a rich team can offer sheet a player an absurd front loaded deal and force the other team to negotiate with them and only them.

Poile would have been stupid to sign him to that 3 year deal that takes one year of his UFA and either risked losing him for nothing or for peanuts(relatively speaking) at the trade deadline.

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07-20-2012, 03:02 AM
  #749
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Originally Posted by predfan24 View Post
I can't wait till the new CBA does away with all this front loaded non sense. It's just another way the rich teams get an unfair advantage.


Teams like Philly can just wait around while other teams draft young studs, develop them properly through their system, watch them become superstars and then use an unfair negotiating tactic to rip that player away from the club that did all the work.
Did you expect any different from Philly?They tried pulling a fast one on the Pronger contract, it get's real old.Wish Tampa weren't idiots back in the day regarding the Chris Gratton offer-sheet and kept the 4 1sts instead of trading them back to Philly for Mikael Renberg and ****ing KARL DYKHUIS

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07-20-2012, 04:14 AM
  #750
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But his agent pretty much came out and said it. Something to the effect that on July 4th (when Suter left) things changed. Now it could be agent speak, but I don't know what financial incentive he would have to say that. He's getting the same contract in Nashville as he would in Philly.
Dreger used that language before the agent spoke out, so it's not based on that. Besides, his language was "by signing [the offer sheet], it's clear that Weber wants out of Nashville," indicating that his conclusion is based simply on the offer sheet signing and nothing else.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Damaged Goods View Post
Bosquet: Well I think when we looked at the other options, and looking at ownership stability, hockey operations, the team... And then you gotta look at the other side. He just got engaged, stability for your family, security for your family moving forward and where you want to live. So I don't think you sign an offer sheet unless you're pointing in that one direction... So to answer your question, it's really up to [the Predators]. He'd really like to play with the Philadelphia Flyers. We all feel that he's just another piece in the puzzle to take them to the next level and he doesn't want to go through a rebuilding process again.

It's probably too strong to say that Weber "wants out" of Nashville, but it appears that the clear preference is for Philadelphia.
There's an error in that transcript. The agent says that Weber would "like" to play for the Flyers, not that he'd "really like" to play for them. That's a pretty important difference, since "like" isn't nearly as exclusive as "really like," IMO. If you've narrowed your list of teams down to two or three, I would think that you'd "like" to play for each of them, even if that's not possible. Either way, I'd take the agent's statements with a grain of salt. His job is to represent Weber in contract negotiations, not speak for him to the media. He's just giving his own thoughts and feelings, not necessarily Weber's.


Last edited by Osprey: 07-20-2012 at 04:29 AM.
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