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Weber Signs OS w/ Philly (14 yrs, $110 mil - $7.85 mil cap hit) Mod Warning Post 364

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07-20-2012, 03:40 PM
  #876
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Originally Posted by phillyfanatic View Post
Reading the posts, I agree, Philly made this deal almost impossible financially for Nashville to match. I keep hearing media types saying "they have to match, or they tell their fans they can't compete". IMO, if they match, they all but guarantee failure. Weber is not "financially" worth that money over the next five years. No way is having Weber going to bring in enough revenue to pay the contract off.

I see two scenerios:
1. They let him walk, take the picks and rebuild. The new CBA will likely disallow the unfair advantage.
2. They negotiate a trade with Philly for the draft picks. IE. We will not match offer, and in return we will give you back 2 first round picks for Andrej Meszaros and Sean Couturier (As an example).

So, what would be a fair #2 deal for Shea Weber?
I think Schenn+Schenn+1st would do it. I think Coots+Mez would do it also. I don't see why Philly would do it.

If the Preds have the ability to match, they're better off doing so. Even if you have to trade Weber, you'll get probably a haul the likes of which we've never seen in a year.

If they don't have the ability to match, then there's no incentive for Philly to do that whatsoever.

Unless Poile/Holmgren are engaged in a game of who calls who's bluff first.

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07-20-2012, 03:44 PM
  #877
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Originally Posted by RaiderDoug View Post
I think Schenn+Schenn+1st would do it. I think Coots+Mez would do it also. I don't see why Philly would do it.

If the Preds have the ability to match, they're better off doing so. Even if you have to trade Weber, you'll get probably a haul the likes of which we've never seen in a year.

If they don't have the ability to match, then there's no incentive for Philly to do that whatsoever.

Unless Poile/Holmgren are engaged in a game of who calls who's bluff first.
Holmgren would rather run with Weber and give you the 4 late first rounders then get trade fairly, it just makes more sense to them. Nashville won't be getting Schenn + Schenn.

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07-20-2012, 03:46 PM
  #878
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Originally Posted by ninetynine View Post
Holmgren would rather run with Weber and give you the 4 late first rounders then get trade fairly, it just makes more sense to them. Nashville won't be getting Schenn + Schenn.
Yep. The whole point is that we can't afford to match. It's the firsts or bankruptcy

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07-20-2012, 03:57 PM
  #879
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Originally Posted by ninetynine View Post
$27 million dollars in next 12 months is more than the ticket revenues, and the Preds haven't made money except in one season [2007-2008]. The Preds are my second-favourite team but there's too much money here.



Only a huge loan would keep Weber in Nashville.
where is the non hockey revenue from the arena? all the smart people and naysayers forget about that as powers mgmt use those revenues to keep the team profitable.

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07-20-2012, 03:58 PM
  #880
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Originally Posted by ninetynine View Post
Holmgren would rather run with Weber and give you the 4 late first rounders then get trade fairly, it just makes more sense to them. Nashville won't be getting Schenn + Schenn.
What if Poile calls up Holmgren and says:

"We're going to match the offer. We really don't want to tie up that much payroll in one guy, but the fact is it will completely blow any momentum we've made in this market, and we can't afford to let him go. We know you really want him, let's work something out".

Depending on how bad Holmgren wants Weber on the team, there could be something to that.

Lets face it, if the Preds can match, then they can trade him to the Rangers next year. Wouldn't it be better off for Holmgren to move something now instead of getting into a bidding war next year?

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07-20-2012, 03:59 PM
  #881
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Originally Posted by AtlantaWhaler View Post
Yep. The whole point is that we can't afford to match. It's the firsts or bankruptcy
if Phoenix can lose gobs of money and stay put for a few years, we will be fine. Even if the preds lose a few million bucks each of the next few years. When they are paying weber peanuts it won't matter.


Paul McCann has a good read out today on his blog about the deal.

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07-20-2012, 04:01 PM
  #882
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Originally Posted by token grinder View Post
where is the non hockey revenue from the arena? all the smart people and naysayers forget about that as powers mgmt use those revenues to keep the team profitable.
Wouldn't that fall under "Total Arena Revenues"?

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07-20-2012, 04:05 PM
  #883
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Originally Posted by token grinder View Post
where is the non hockey revenue from the arena? all the smart people and naysayers forget about that as powers mgmt use those revenues to keep the team profitable.
Under total arena revenues...

EDIT: Thanks MuckOG and congrats on your 666th post!

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07-20-2012, 04:06 PM
  #884
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How about this:

Nsh doesnt match as it makes 0 business sense.
Phila gets Weber and Nsh 4 Phila picks.
Then Phila sends Coburn or Meszaros + Couturier to Nsh for Gaustad and 4 Nsh picks.

Nsh gets 1 of the young guys thet wanted, they get a D back.
Phila gets Weber and Gaustad.

Picks are swapped, probably to Phila advantage.

Holmgren was able to convince Simon Gagne to drop his clause and go to Tampa for cap relief to the Flyers. He could try with Coburn (or even Timonen/Briere) who both have clauses but who earn way less than their cap hit.

Nsh need good players back. Is Coburn and Couturier enough?

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07-20-2012, 04:12 PM
  #885
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Originally Posted by RaiderDoug View Post
What if Poile calls up Holmgren and says:

"We're going to match the offer. We really don't want to tie up that much payroll in one guy, but the fact is it will completely blow any momentum we've made in this market, and we can't afford to let him go. We know you really want him, let's work something out".

Depending on how bad Holmgren wants Weber on the team, there could be something to that.

Lets face it, if the Preds can match, then they can trade him to the Rangers next year. Wouldn't it be better off for Holmgren to move something now instead of getting into a bidding war next year?
Weber can't be moved for a year anyway, but is due $27M in that timeframe

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07-20-2012, 04:13 PM
  #886
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Originally Posted by Stranger View Post
Weber signed a deal knowing the Preds couldn't match.
That's not necessarily an accurate assumption to make, IMO. It's possible that Weber figures that they could match it if they really have to. It may be true that, at present, they don't have the money to pay the up-front bonuses, but they're rich businessmen and can get it if they need to. It's like if someone owes you $500 that you know that he doesn't have in his bank account, but you demand it, anyways, since you know that he could pay you back by selling his iPad. Weber may be doing something similar here: twisting the Preds' arm to get them to pony up what he figures that they can accommodate, but are just being very stubborn about offering.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Snotbubbles View Post
The answer to this is simple. He had no choice but to sign. He wanted to get a front-loaded, lifetime contract before a new CBA was ratified and he really didn't have a long timeframe to do it. If he wait until next year the type of contract he signed is probably not allowed. So waiting a year and becoming an UFA really wasn't an option. What he did was wait and see how the negotiations between Philly and Nashville turned out, unfortunately they couldn't come to an agreement so Weber was forced to sign the offer sheet and hope Nashville doesn't match.
I agree with all of that except for the last bit. If Weber cares most about the contract, which you imply and I agree with, then it really doesn't matter whether Nashville matches, since he'll get the contract either way. He may even secretly hope that Nashville does match; we don't know.

Quote:
Originally Posted by cashisking View Post
Dude get your head out of the sand. You are in such denial. Yes your team will probably match but your captain, your leader wants to play somewhere else other than where he's playing now. Sure he might not mind going back to your team but he'd RATHER play for someone else. That's huge.
"Dude," you shouldn't assume where I'm coming from. Also, you shouldn't assume where he'd "rather" play. The theory that he'd rather play for Philly, which you appear to subscribe to, is just one of many theories possible based on the facts, not the only one. Seeing multiple ways to interpret this isn't denial; it's using one's head.


Last edited by Osprey: 07-20-2012 at 04:24 PM.
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07-20-2012, 04:13 PM
  #887
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Originally Posted by MSSLYNX View Post
How about this:

Nsh doesnt match as it makes 0 business sense.
Phila gets Weber and Nsh 4 Phila picks.
Then Phila sends Coburn or Meszaros + Couturier to Nsh for Gaustad and 4 Nsh picks.

Nsh gets 1 of the young guys thet wanted, they get a D back.
Phila gets Weber and Gaustad.

Picks are swapped, probably to Phila advantage.

Holmgren was able to convince Simon Gagne to drop his clause and go to Tampa for cap relief to the Flyers. He could try with Coburn (or even Timonen/Briere) who both have clauses but who earn way less than their cap hit.

Nsh need good players back. Is Coburn and Couturier enough?
Philly isn't giving up Couts, even if we don't get the picks back, sorry.

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07-20-2012, 04:22 PM
  #888
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ninetynine View Post
$27 million dollars in next 12 months is more than the ticket revenues, and the Preds haven't made money except in one season [2007-2008]. The Preds are my second-favourite team but there's too much money here.



Only a huge loan would keep Weber in Nashville.
One thing that really makes me feel that Philly fans' are doing some wishful thinking here is that all of the arguments that Nashville can't afford the contract are ignoring the possibility (or likelyhood) of revenue sharing after the new CBA is done. The owners are working to make that work, so just using past numbers doesn't really help the situation. I don't think the value of 4 late firsts is enough to make the Predators decide to let him go. It'd be tough to make the contract fit, but tougher to convince fans not to jump ship from a marketing perspective.

As for you Preds fans, it really sucks the way this summer has unfolded for you guys. I really hope this contract is matched and made to work.

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07-20-2012, 04:28 PM
  #889
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This isn't an offer sheet, it's a commando strike...

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07-20-2012, 04:37 PM
  #890
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Did the commando force Weber to sign?
Stayed 3 days in Phila. Made up his mind.
No way he didnt go back to Poile after getting the offer sheet.
Old pal Luke Schenn might have played a role too.

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07-20-2012, 04:40 PM
  #891
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Originally Posted by Thallis View Post
O...all of the arguments that Nashville can't afford the contract are ignoring the possibility (or likelyhood) of revenue sharing after the new CBA is done.
There wasn't a single line item in the NHL's proposal that called for an increase in revenue sharing. And the teams that would have to support such a thing are exactly teams like Philly, that are gunning for your big names.

 
Old
07-20-2012, 04:43 PM
  #892
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Originally Posted by MSSLYNX View Post
Did the commando force Weber to sign?
No, but $26 million in bonuses in the next calendar year probably made signing easier.

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07-20-2012, 04:43 PM
  #893
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Originally Posted by Dado View Post
There wasn't a single line item in the NHL's proposal that called for an increase in revenue sharing. And the teams that would have to support such a thing are exactly teams like Philly, that are gunning for your big names.
I don't see the players giving an inch on the revenue split between players and owners unless owners are willing to increase revenue sharing.

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07-20-2012, 04:57 PM
  #894
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Funny thing is this poisoned contract is a square punch in the face to Nashville was caused by what? The right choice or the choice we have no choice in going with now because of a series of total screw ups? Losing Weber is far from the right choice under these circumstances.
Without knowing exactly what choices were or weren't made it's hard to say what was a right choice and what was a total screwup ... what was actually a choice and what was a financially dictated option. Just because the team can afford to pay X millions over the course of the season does not mean they can afford to pay all of it in cash today.

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07-20-2012, 05:10 PM
  #895
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Originally Posted by MuckOG View Post
I don't see the players giving an inch on the revenue split between players and owners unless owners are willing to increase revenue sharing.
I see the rich teams having an issue with handing over even more of their money to the lower teams.

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07-20-2012, 05:11 PM
  #896
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ninetynine View Post
Under total arena revenues...

EDIT: Thanks MuckOG and congrats on your 666th post!
Are you sure that isn't total arena revenue for hockey games? It says "Nashville Hockey Club" at the top of the page. It very well may not include the money Powers Management makes on other events. $13m seems awfully low for it to be the revenue from every single event in the arena...

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07-20-2012, 05:13 PM
  #897
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Originally Posted by 29dryden29 View Post
I see the rich teams having an issue with handing over even more of their money to the lower teams.
I don't recall the rich owners having an issue taking all that expansion money from the lower teams....it's time for a little payback. The NHL is stronger as a whole, if all the teams can compete on a semi-equal footing.

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07-20-2012, 05:14 PM
  #898
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I see the rich teams having an issue with handing over even more of their money to the lower teams.
People who are down on revenue sharing ignore the absolute fact that revenue sharing is good for entire sports leagues, even the teams paying into it.

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07-20-2012, 05:15 PM
  #899
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this thread is about weber, not about whether Nashville gets revenue sharing. if we have to tolerate all these fans from other teams, at least stop all the discussion of nashville as a "lower team" versus the rich teams.
it's just open season in here on nashville fans wanting to discuss their team

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07-20-2012, 05:17 PM
  #900
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Originally Posted by Thallis View Post
One thing that really makes me feel that Philly fans' are doing some wishful thinking here is that all of the arguments that Nashville can't afford the contract are ignoring the possibility (or likelyhood) of revenue sharing after the new CBA is done. The owners are working to make that work, so just using past numbers doesn't really help the situation. I don't think the value of 4 late firsts is enough to make the Predators decide to let him go. It'd be tough to make the contract fit, but tougher to convince fans not to jump ship from a marketing perspective.

As for you Preds fans, it really sucks the way this summer has unfolded for you guys. I really hope this contract is matched and made to work.
"Revenue Sharing" is not likely to increase much. Big owners already hate it and they hold more sway in the NHL. I firmly respect the Predators, but this was a poisonous contract that was designed for a reason. Also, if there's a lockout there'll be no revenue sharing at all, or much income for the team but the Preds would still owe Shea $26M, and $27 if there isn't a lockout.

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