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Weber signed to offer sheet (TSN: 14 yrs, $110m, cap hit $7.8m per yr.) Part 2

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07-22-2012, 07:05 PM
  #751
Haute Couturier
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Damaged Goods View Post
Because their entire business model is based on responsible spending.

Because if they match the Weber contract, they can kiss goodbye any hopes of being a profitable franchise for the next 6 years.
They can kiss that goodbye if they don't match. I they don't match they will kill the progress they have made. Fans will stop going to games and playoff revenue will be non-existent. The last thing they need is to be caught in a rebuild cycle that takes 3-5 years.

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07-22-2012, 07:13 PM
  #752
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Originally Posted by NitHeel View Post
And the reason you give up all this extra stuff when you don't have to is....?

If it comes down with a trade, the Flyers have all the leverage. The Preds likely can't foot the bill in that scenario and are prohibited to deal him anywhere but to Philadelphia. Why would you voluntarily start bidding against yourself?
Ugh, come on man, read the post. I said I don't want to and I didn't say I think that is what is going to happen. IF it did I would not be upset was the point of the post. Reading comprehension, people.

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07-22-2012, 07:13 PM
  #753
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Originally Posted by achdumeingute View Post
hopefully they still have fans by then, because of the dollar store forwards their ownership will surround weber with.

They HAVE the money...there is no question its there.

The question is do they want to spend it.

This deal is (for anyone) a bad financial deal for the first 6 years...potentially 78m in un insurable liabilities....horrid lol.
This is an incorrect assumption that a lot of people aren't getting. The team is ALREADY in debt and losing money. How, then, can you say it's not a question? They technically dont have the money to sustain their current operation, let alone add a 110 million dollar contract that includes 26 million dollars owed over the next 11 months. A feat that would be felt by even the top grossing upper echelon of NHL franchises.

I just do not see a way that Nashville can match it.

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07-22-2012, 07:17 PM
  #754
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Originally Posted by Haute Couturier View Post
They can kiss that goodbye if they don't match. I they don't match they will kill the progress they have made. Fans will stop going to games and playoff revenue will be non-existent. The last thing they need is to be caught in a rebuild cycle that takes 3-5 years.
I think that's an overreaction. The Preds are a pretty smart draft/develop team. They will limit their losses simply by the fact that they are not playing many players that much money. And they will have cap space and draft picks to prudently improve the current roster. I think they have a much higher risk of entangling themselves in a sticky situation if they match (unless they really are OK with losing $10-15 M on the team per year).

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07-22-2012, 07:17 PM
  #755
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It's pretty simple. If Nashville is able to match the offer sheet they will. If they go to Holmgren looking for a deal then Holmgren has all the power. In that case I'd offer them Read + Mez + MAB for 2 of the 1sts back. If that's not something they want to do, I tell them to match the deal.

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07-22-2012, 07:21 PM
  #756
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I still don't understand how people say they will match when they could never even come to terms in the first place. Add to the fact Pollie was shopping Weber. With the reports of discontent with contracts talk via his agent, all of this "they have no choice but to match" is total bull because if they wanted Weber and they have the ability to sign him he should be under contract to them. It's common sense.

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07-22-2012, 07:21 PM
  #757
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Originally Posted by DrinkFightFlyers View Post
Ugh, come on man, read the post. I said I don't want to and I didn't say I think that is what is going to happen. IF it did I would not be upset was the point of the post. Reading comprehension, people.
Yeah...that's exactly what I was referring to. But thanks for the inane lecture.

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07-22-2012, 07:21 PM
  #758
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A true fan sticks to his team no matter what the situation is or has been. Sad, and I considered him to be one of the better and reliable poster around our board.


Oh well, not my lost, he is entitled to stay by what he likes.

Anyways, he chose a great team to cheer for, so kudos to him and I actually like the Flyers a lot mainly due to Giroux who is by far by my favourite player in the league bar none.

though, I would never ever cheer for any team aside from Leafs given we go another 50 years without the play-offs

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07-22-2012, 07:24 PM
  #759
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Originally Posted by orange is better View Post
This is an incorrect assumption that a lot of people aren't getting. The team is ALREADY in debt and losing money. How, then, can you say it's not a question? They technically dont have the money to sustain their current operation, let alone add a 110 million dollar contract that includes 26 million dollars owed over the next 11 months. A feat that would be felt by even the top grossing upper echelon of NHL franchises.

I just do not see a way that Nashville can match it.
The owners of the Nashville Predators absolutely have the money to match the offer. You're talking about profitability and the internal budget of the team. If the combined wealth of the team says "Profits be damned!", then Weber will get matched.

I don't believe that business men of their caliber would necessarily do that, but any suggestion that they can't bucks reality.

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07-22-2012, 07:27 PM
  #760
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Originally Posted by Damaged Goods View Post
I think that's an overreaction. The Preds are a pretty smart draft/develop team. They will limit their losses simply by the fact that they are not playing many players that much money. And they will have cap space and draft picks to prudently improve the current roster. I think they have a much higher risk of entangling themselves in a sticky situation if they match (unless they really are OK with losing $10-15 M on the team per year).
They draft well, but Norris candidates don't grow on trees and defenseman take longer to develop. So they could spend years missing the playoffs. They still have to spend to the floor so they have to pay anyway. Remember they were spending $52M last year and they've gone on the record to say they would spend more than they ever have. They are currently at $40M. It's not like this means they will be $27M in a hole. The worst case scenario is they will eventually have to trade him for NHL ready youth which helps them rebuild faster. They aren't just going to pile up the losses each year if they do match. They also might receive more revenue sharing in the new CBA, the floor could go down, and salaries could be rolled back some to help minimize some of their losses.

I think they have much more to lose by letting him go.

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07-22-2012, 07:28 PM
  #761
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They'll match. Money shouldn't be an issue. I think they'll likely be building a budget/plan for the next few years based on what this deal will do to their finances/cap instead of just matching it and then winging it. Gotta have a plan first.

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07-22-2012, 07:34 PM
  #762
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Originally Posted by djlethal08 View Post
It's pretty simple. If Nashville is able to match the offer sheet they will. If they go to Holmgren looking for a deal then Holmgren has all the power. In that case I'd offer them Read + Mez + MAB for 2 of the 1sts back. If that's not something they want to do, I tell them to match the deal.
I don't offer anything, I'm calling their bluff. If Poile calls and says "Hey Scratch, we're going to match unless you give us the Schenn boys." I reply with go ahead, then match. The best I can give you right now is 4 picks, but I'll talk to my boys to see if they are willing to move any players for the picks. Call me back in an hour if you don't match.

That's it. If he calls back, now I really know he's my *****. If he doesn't, then he's matching and we move on.

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07-22-2012, 07:34 PM
  #763
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Big surpise coming for all the they will match crowd.

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07-22-2012, 07:34 PM
  #764
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Originally Posted by Haute Couturier View Post
They can kiss that goodbye if they don't match. I they don't match they will kill the progress they have made. Fans will stop going to games and playoff revenue will be non-existent. The last thing they need is to be caught in a rebuild cycle that takes 3-5 years.
They can also experience the same thing if they keep one player and surround him with beer league forwards.

Honestly, i don't see this ownership group stepping up to spend the team into REAL viability.

Which begs the point, why match in the first place?

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Old
07-22-2012, 07:39 PM
  #765
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Haute Couturier View Post
They draft well, but Norris candidates don't grow on trees and defenseman take longer to develop. So they could spend years missing the playoffs. They still have to spend to the floor so they have to pay anyway. Remember they were spending $52M last year and they've gone on the record to say they would spend more than they ever have. They are currently at $40M. It's not like this means they will be $27M in a hole. The worst case scenario is they will eventually have to trade him for NHL ready youth which helps them rebuild faster. They aren't just going to pile up the losses each year if they do match. They also might receive more revenue sharing in the new CBA, the floor could go down, and salaries could be rolled back some to help minimize some of their losses.

I think they have much more to lose by letting him go.
$14 M is over 27% of what they spent last year, for just one player. Weber is a great player, but he's not a one-man army. And he just went from being very underpaid to very overpaid within two years. So all that surplus value is gone now.

They have to spend $6 M in payroll over the floor to actually reach the cap floor with Weber (not just this year, but for the next 3 years).

They are in a very big hole if they want to retain Weber at this price, retain their RFAs and actually get better at the same time (make up for the loss of Suter).

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07-22-2012, 07:40 PM
  #766
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Haute Couturier View Post
They draft well, but Norris candidates don't grow on trees and defenseman take longer to develop. So they could spend years missing the playoffs. They still have to spend to the floor so they have to pay anyway. Remember they were spending $52M last year and they've gone on the record to say they would spend more than they ever have. They are currently at $40M. It's not like this means they will be $27M in a hole. The worst case scenario is they will eventually have to trade him for NHL ready youth which helps them rebuild faster. They aren't just going to pile up the losses each year if they do match. They also might receive more revenue sharing in the new CBA, the floor could go down, and salaries could be rolled back some to help minimize some of their losses.

They can get that out of this deal. With a bit of negotiating. Mez, Gus and Jake have been touted. And they can strike this deal without squandering $26mil in a calender year. I still think they probably match but I can't see how some people can be sure either way. Nashville have to set a lot of money aside for this deal and we're not just talking about year 1. It's going to be 6 years of financial hurt. They may to have to make extra splashes too because I'm not sure that they're shoe-ins to be a Playoff team next season. Add in the fact that there's a potential lockout to deal with and the fact that Weber has expressed a desire to play elsewhere and it's not so cut and dry.

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07-22-2012, 07:42 PM
  #767
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man i really hope they don't match

sounds like they are

god damn it

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Old
07-22-2012, 07:44 PM
  #768
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Quote:
Originally Posted by achdumeingute View Post
They can also experience the same thing if they keep one player and surround him with beer league forwards.

Honestly, i don't see this ownership group stepping up to spend the team into REAL viability.

Which begs the point, why match in the first place?
How do you know they won't? They signed Rinne to a huge deal and attempted to re-sign Suter and Weber. According to Andy Strickland they also attempted to sign Parise, but he did not want to play in Nashville. It seems like they might have been prepared to spend.

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07-22-2012, 07:45 PM
  #769
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man i really hope they don't match

sounds like they are

god damn it
From where? Everything points the other way for me. It depends who you read I guess.

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07-22-2012, 07:45 PM
  #770
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Originally Posted by phillyflyerfan1992 View Post
They'll match. Money shouldn't be an issue. I think they'll likely be building a budget/plan for the next few years based on what this deal will do to their finances/cap instead of just matching it and then winging it. Gotta have a plan first.
Money is the issue for them though. Read some of it here:

http://www.tennessean.com/article/20...s-public-money

Quote:
Millions of dollars in public funds and unsurpassed on-ice success have not been able to turn the Nashville Predators into a profitable business.

The leader of the local ownership group said members have been forced to put $60 million of their own money into the operation over the past five years, largely to cover losses. The city has given the Predators $38.6 million in the same period.
Their already having problems losing money. Like honestly, unless they do a multi-step process of increasing their funds I still dont see how they will have the money to cover Weber's 25 mill ish first year.

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07-22-2012, 07:49 PM
  #771
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Originally Posted by Damaged Goods View Post
$14 M is over 27% of what they spent last year, for just one player. Weber is a great player, but he's not a one-man army. And he just went from being very underpaid to very overpaid within two years. So all that surplus value is gone now.

They have to spend $6 M in payroll over the floor to actually reach the cap floor with Weber (not just this year, but for the next 3 years).

They are in a very big hole if they want to retain Weber at this price, retain their RFAs and actually get better at the same time (make up for the loss of Suter).
Ask the Blues, Oilers, and Ducks what losing one player can do. All three missed the playoffs after losing Pronger. Ask Oilers fans have crippling that was (Oilers are my 2nd team). Just the optics of your best player wanting out is damaging.

The floor won't be the same in the next CBA. The odds are that they won't need to spend nearly as much.

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07-22-2012, 07:54 PM
  #772
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They can kiss that goodbye if they don't match. I they don't match they will kill the progress they have made. Fans will stop going to games and playoff revenue will be non-existent. The last thing they need is to be caught in a rebuild cycle that takes 3-5 years.
No offense, but the rebuild is going to have happen with or without Weber, there's plunty of assets Nashville could pry out of the Flyer's to get this deal done.

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07-22-2012, 07:54 PM
  #773
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Patrick Kane was the only player in that top 3 picks worth anything, and hes a bust since he rather party. That whole draft was a failure.
I actually wanted Voracek with the 2nd overall. I thought he would turn out the best after Kane.

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07-22-2012, 07:56 PM
  #774
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Originally Posted by Haute Couturier View Post
Ask the Blues, Oilers, and Ducks what losing one player can do. All three missed the playoffs after losing Pronger. Ask Oilers fans have crippling that was (Oilers are my 2nd team). Just the optics of your best player wanting out is damaging.

The floor won't be the same in the next CBA. The odds are that they won't need to spend nearly as much.

If they cut payroll elsewhere to keep one player who is now overpaid, odds are the team is going south anyway. There is not very much fat on that roster to trim, contractually.

They would be better off sticking to their draft and develop roots, even if it means biting the bullet for a year or two. At least they won't have this stumbling-block of a contract in their way. Paying a player that much money runs counter to everything they've done to build up the franchise in its recent history.

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07-22-2012, 07:56 PM
  #775
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Originally Posted by Haute Couturier View Post
They draft well, but Norris candidates don't grow on trees and defenseman take longer to develop. So they could spend years missing the playoffs. They still have to spend to the floor so they have to pay anyway. Remember they were spending $52M last year and they've gone on the record to say they would spend more than they ever have. They are currently at $40M. It's not like this means they will be $27M in a hole. The worst case scenario is they will eventually have to trade him for NHL ready youth which helps them rebuild faster. They aren't just going to pile up the losses each year if they do match. They also might receive more revenue sharing in the new CBA, the floor could go down, and salaries could be rolled back some to help minimize some of their losses.

I think they have much more to lose by letting him go.
They may be at $40mill now... but they only have 4 dmen signed, 12 forwards (including 3-4 who played less than 30 games last year)

They have the least players currently contracted of any NHL team...

Considering most teams have about 15-16 forwards and 8-9 d-men signed for a season, they need an extra 7-8 players signed before the season... that is going to cost $10mill minimum... and actually has to cost slightly more than that to reach the floor (maybe $12mill in actual cash).

So that means they will be spending $52mill next year even IF THEY DON'T match (guess how much they pay in signing bonuses currently? $260k).

If they do it will put their yearly spending up to $65mill cash... and 13.26mill of that coming on the first day... that was their budget last year for all players pay packages for the first 3 months of the year. So next year, if they sign Weber, their first quarter of the season pay spending DOUBLES, it does as well for 3 years after that, and the two years after that they only get a 2mill respite.

They can match, just, I believe, but the risk due to the guaranteed money, as well as the lockout is so much I am not sure they will.

In the next calender year Weber will be over 33% of all the money the organisation spends on salary if they match.

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