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How much do Flyers need to "sweeten" the deal for Nashville?

View Poll Results: What additional pieces should the Flyers offer to prevent the Preds from matching?
Meszaros and Gus/Bourdon 19 15.20%
Meszaros, Gus/Bourdon and Laughton/Cousins 10 8.00%
Meszaros, Gus/Bourdon and Voracek/Read/Simmonds 27 21.60%
Couturier/Schenn 8 6.40%
Coburn+/++ 2 1.60%
Nothing at all / call their bluff 59 47.20%
Voters: 125. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
07-23-2012, 10:17 AM
  #26
StevensCakeBakerBacker
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Broad Street Elite View Post
Not that simple. This contract would surely hamstring them, so they have to consider that in the equation. I agree that right now, Weber + financial woes > 4 1sts and the fanbase hit. However, considering all of the other things in the equation, what you need to substitute the 4 1sts for is absolutely not considerably more than Voracek and Mez + next 2 1sts. Maybe a Bourdon, Cousins, or something else on top.
If NSH has such a great fan base, why would they leave in mass because Weber left the team? Regardless of whether or not Weber leaves, the fans should still have a problem with ownership/management because they allowed this mess to become a reality (also, consider all the other talent NSH let walk out the door).

I'm sure there will be an initial emotional reaction from the NSH fan base, just like the reaction last off season when Richards and Carter were traded.

NSH could potentially (if they trade up) have two top 15 picks for the next 4 years, that could be a really cheap and quick rebuild...

NSH also has approximately 10 RFAs/UFAs to sign next off season. I don't know that it's a lock the Flyers get Weber, but I don't really see how NSH can afford the deal, especially when you consider the bonus money owed cannot be insured in the event of lockout/injury.

I'm open to a trade in order to get Weber here, but Holmgren already made his position clear that Couts/Schenn are not going the other way. Mez and Jake I could handle, but the Flyers better be able to bring in Doan (or another W for Giroux) because W will be extremely thin.

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07-23-2012, 10:23 AM
  #27
DrHamburg
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Why in the world would the Flyers try to entice the preds further? You think they would rather have Weber or Mez and Voracek?

If they dont match its clearly a money issue. They wont want Mez. You would need to do 3 first, bourdon + gust + wellwood. Cheap contracts with roster players for nashville. giving them voracek and mez for say 8 million a season combined, they might as well pay weber.

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07-23-2012, 10:30 AM
  #28
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Originally Posted by DrHamburg View Post
Why in the world would the Flyers try to entice the preds further? You think they would rather have Weber or Mez and Voracek?
Do you think they would rather have 4 1st round picks or 2/3 1st round picks, Meszaros and Voracek?


Quote:
Originally Posted by DrHamburg View Post
If they dont match its clearly a money issue. They wont want Mez. You would need to do 3 first, bourdon + gust + wellwood. Cheap contracts with roster players for nashville. giving them voracek and mez for say 8 million a season combined, they might as well pay weber.
You are making too clear a distinction between the player issue and the money issue. It's really the nexus of personnel and money (where you get value). And that is what we have here -- a value issue. If you concede more value to Nashville, then you're more likely to land Weber.


Last edited by Damaged Goods: 07-23-2012 at 10:48 AM.
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07-23-2012, 10:36 AM
  #29
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Originally Posted by teegale View Post
The way I'm looking at it is that if Nashville is talking about a possible "trade" scenario then they can't afford to sign Weber. If I was Homer we do nothing, and call their bluff.
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Originally Posted by Flyerfan4life View Post
nothing..

either the Preds will find the cash to match or they wont..

giving up players to them isnt going to change that outcome..
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheIceman26 View Post
call their bluff, nash doesn't have the money for this contract...it's pretty obvious or they would have matched the day it was offered.
We've put Nashville into a lose-lose situation. But only one of the "lose" outcomes is also a true "win" outcome for the Flyers. You would want to lead Nashville towards the "lose" outcome that has the most benefit for the Flyers. Because you have to admit that when faced with a lose-lose situation, there is some chance that Nashville will pick the "lose" outcome that doesn't benefit the Flyers.

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07-23-2012, 10:36 AM
  #30
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Originally Posted by DrHamburg View Post
Why in the world would the Flyers try to entice the preds further? You think they would rather have Weber or Mez and Voracek?

If they dont match its clearly a money issue. They wont want Mez. You would need to do 3 first, bourdon + gust + wellwood. Cheap contracts with roster players for nashville. giving them voracek and mez for say 8 million a season combined, they might as well pay weber.
1. If you can guarantee Weber for an underpayment, you do it.

2. NSH needs to get to the cap floor, Mez and Vora help them achieve that while also getting good talent.

3. NSH is concerned with the real money (and timing of those bulk payments) they need to pay Weber, not the cap hit. Mez+Vora for $8 million cap hit (paid out evenly over the season) does not equal Weber at $7.8 million ($26 Million + owed in the next 11 months in 2 large payments, one of which is immediately due).

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07-23-2012, 10:38 AM
  #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DrHamburg View Post
Why in the world would the Flyers try to entice the preds further? You think they would rather have Weber or Mez and Voracek?

If they dont match its clearly a money issue. They wont want Mez. You would need to do 3 first, bourdon + gust + wellwood. Cheap contracts with roster players for nashville. giving them voracek and mez for say 8 million a season combined, they might as well pay weber.
The Predators ARE REQUIRED to spend to get to the cap floor. Roughly 13 million dollars. However, with Weber's deal, they end up paying a boatload more in terms of real dollars than in cap hit. Players like Mez and Voracek are or will be compensated in a manner that aligns their play with an appropriate cap hit and actual salary.

There are a ton of other factors here:

1.) Weber's contract is all bonus upfront meaning it gets paid whether the there's a lockout or not

2.) Bonuses are uninsurable. That's 68 million dollars of financial risk for the franchise

Yes, a decision not to match would be tied to money, but not necessarily in the way you're indicating. They have to send some to meet the minumums (as they would even if they match). but in terms of cost versus cap, they may not be able to maintain profitability if they do.

However, 4 1sts don't help them get to the cap minimum nor do they make their team even remotely close to competitiveness. Some young players to fill holes and cap space along with some of the more immediate picks go a lot farther towards softening a blow.

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07-23-2012, 10:41 AM
  #32
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DrHamburg, you are right on the cap hits but forget about the quick 26 mil. bonuses and more later on.
They will have to get on the salary floor anyway. They could check around and get that with Phils' 4 picks but not sure about their value to another team.

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07-23-2012, 10:42 AM
  #33
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The ideal situation would be to call their bluff and part with the four 1st round picks because the draft is always a crap shoot, especially that far down in the first round.

But I agree with other responses that if the flyers are this close to acquiring a talent like weber then I would rather take the sure thing which would be sweetening the pot.

With that said I would make the offer like this:

Mezaros
Gustavsen or Bourdon
Cousins or Laughton
3 of the 1st round picks

If that isnt enough I would be willing to add Voracek or read so something like this:

Mezaros
Gustavssen or Bourdon
Voracek or Read
2 of the 1st round picks

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07-23-2012, 10:55 AM
  #34
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If for a moment, I can be greedy and have my perfect dream scenerio it would go something like this:

1) Preds dont match and trade 2 of the 1st round picks back to the flyers for Mezaros, Bourdon, and Laughton.

2) Flyers then trade both returned 1st round picks along with Voracek and Gustavssen to Anaheim for Bobby Ryan

3) My line up would be...

Hartnell($4.2)-Giroux($3.8)-Ryan($5.1)
Simmonds($1.8)-Briere($6.5)-Schenn($3.1)
Fedetenko($1.8)-Couturier($1.4)-Read($.9)
Wellwood($.6)-Talbot($1.8)-Rinaldo($.5)/Cousins($.9)

Weber($7.9)-Timonen($6.3)
Schenn($3.6)-Coburn($4.5)
Grossman($3.5)-Lilja($.7)/Gervais($.8)

Bryzgalov($5.7)
Leighton($.9)

Obviously they would need to buyout/Waive/Demote to phantoms whoever else to remain cap compliant but this my dream so it will work! lol

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07-23-2012, 10:56 AM
  #35
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I bet nashville is already shopping to see if they can land some of ryan nash or else to save the face of the franchise and calm the fan base....if they think they can 3 first and mez are enought

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07-23-2012, 11:04 AM
  #36
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Nash would be the same cap hit without the frontloaded money so you think nashville is thinking about trade asset with 2 first (nashville pick and they keep the flyers one) and another player or 2 for nash. Then they have a new captain reach cap floor and save their face...so the trade would look like weber vs mez nash and a 1st for the fans ....What do you think???

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07-23-2012, 11:07 AM
  #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by flyersfromquebec View Post
Nash would be the same cap hit without the frontloaded money so you think nashville is thinking about trade asset with 2 first and another player or 2 for nash. Then they have a new captain reach cap floor and save their face...so the trade would look like weber vs mez nash and a 1st for the fans ....What do you think???

It's a complete reach, but of course that would be great.

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07-23-2012, 11:08 AM
  #38
flyersfromquebec
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Originally Posted by Damaged Goods View Post
It's a complete reach, but of course that would be great.
I just edited the post for the first round picks

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07-23-2012, 11:10 AM
  #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Krishna View Post
Meszaros, Voracek, gustafsson/bourdon in exchange for 2 1sts
Agreed...except that I would want to keep Gus instead of Bourdon as he is waiver exempt this year.

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07-23-2012, 11:11 AM
  #40
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If Nashville is able to sign him, they'll sign him. There is no way theyre thinking "well we could sign him, but we wont if you give us....". Keeping weber is bigger for the organization than anything they would be able to get from us.

If I am homer, I call their bluff, and dont trade any one.

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07-23-2012, 11:14 AM
  #41
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It's not as simple as "if they can, they will." It's a huge cost for them to sign Weber, like any decision it's going to be based on costs vs. benefits. If the sole benefit is more money to spend elsewhere and picks they may decide to match. If you add to that the benefit of getting some good players, they're less likely to match.

The Flyers goal should not be forcing Nashville into a bad financial situation, the goal should be to get Weber. If that takes a trade, and it might, then there is absolutely zero reason why they shouldn't make the trade.

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07-23-2012, 11:16 AM
  #42
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I love the way people throw Voracek into proposals as if he just some throw in player

Lets forget that he was a PPG player after his concussion, oh and netted 10 points in 11 games during the play-offs. Hopefully, he isn't going anywhere.

As i've said before, If Nash offers a trade, they clearly cannot match the deal and are looking for alternatives. Simple decision to keep put then.

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07-23-2012, 11:20 AM
  #43
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Quote:
Originally Posted by StevensCakeBakerBacker View Post
1. If you can guarantee Weber for an underpayment, you do it.

2. NSH needs to get to the cap floor, Mez and Vora help them achieve that while also getting good talent.

3. NSH is concerned with the real money (and timing of those bulk payments) they need to pay Weber, not the cap hit. Mez+Vora for $8 million cap hit (paid out evenly over the season) does not equal Weber at $7.8 million ($26 Million + owed in the next 11 months in 2 large payments, one of which is immediately due).
They might not want Mez as his real $ is more than his cap hit the next 2 years. Cap hit is $4 mill..real $ is $4.75 and $5.5.

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07-23-2012, 11:21 AM
  #44
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Reaper1097 View Post
If for a moment, I can be greedy and have my perfect dream scenerio it would go something like this:

1) Preds dont match and trade 2 of the 1st round picks back to the flyers for Mezaros, Bourdon, and Laughton.

2) Flyers then trade both returned 1st round picks along with Voracek and Gustavssen to Anaheim for Bobby Ryan

3) My line up would be...

Hartnell($4.2)-Giroux($3.8)-Ryan($5.1)
Simmonds($1.8)-Briere($6.5)-Schenn($3.1)
Fedetenko($1.8)-Couturier($1.4)-Read($.9)
Wellwood($.6)-Talbot($1.8)-Rinaldo($.5)/Cousins($.9)

Weber($7.9)-Timonen($6.3)
Schenn($3.6)-Coburn($4.5)
Grossman($3.5)-Lilja($.7)/Gervais($.8)

Bryzgalov($5.7)
Leighton($.9)

Obviously they would need to buyout/Waive/Demote to phantoms whoever else to remain cap compliant but this my dream so it will work! lol

Blecccch.

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07-23-2012, 11:23 AM
  #45
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thelos View Post
I think we just send them Mez + Gus/Bourdon for the 2014 first and maybe 1 other first, so that we have a first when we host the draft. I really dont think we can lose Voracek after already saying goodbye to Jagr and JVR
Gus or Bourdon really dont have a high trade value. They would be just throw ins for roster spots for Nashville.
Getting Weber makes Mez expendable. Sure some want a defense making over 36 million but it isnt the ideal thing to do.
As far as Jake goes, I dont want to lose him either. But there are some players that make it worth it. Weber is one of those guys. He scored more goals then Jake did last year alone. He is an elite defenseman. When was the last time we had a guy like that at his age?

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07-23-2012, 11:24 AM
  #46
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If Nashville has the resources to match and are seriously considering doing so, I don't think Mez is going to change their minds. I think we'd need to throw them Voracek and Coburn.

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07-23-2012, 11:27 AM
  #47
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Originally Posted by Fish Invictus View Post
If Nashville has the resources to match and are seriously considering doing so, I don't think Mez is going to change their minds. I think we'd need to throw them Voracek and Coburn.
exactly. Mez is a typical middle paring defenseman. he is far from a deal breaker. Voracek would have to go the other way.

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07-23-2012, 11:34 AM
  #48
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I like mez, but even with Kimmo gone our top 4 D is

Weber, Schenn
Coburn, Grossman

mez as a 5th D is a luxury not a need.

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07-23-2012, 11:45 AM
  #49
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Originally Posted by Fish Invictus View Post
If Nashville has the resources to match and are seriously considering doing so, I don't think Mez is going to change their minds. I think we'd need to throw them Voracek and Coburn.
That all depends on how close the Preds are to the tipping point, doesn't it?

It would also be interesting to know if the Preds are having discussions with other teams about turning around and trading for veteran pieces with less onerous contracts to keep their window open.


Quote:
Originally Posted by GoneFullHolmgren View Post
exactly. Mez is a typical middle paring defenseman. he is far from a deal breaker. Voracek would have to go the other way.
At least he's not vastly overpaid (like Weber is going to be). You can't entirely dismiss the value he provides in a trade.

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07-23-2012, 11:49 AM
  #50
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Originally Posted by Damaged Goods View Post
That all depends on how close the Preds are to the tipping point, doesn't it?

It would also be interesting to know if the Preds are having discussions with other teams about turning around and trading for veteran pieces with less onerous contracts to keep their window open.
Yeah, it does depend on how able they are to do it. If they aren't able at all and the Flyers know it, they don't have much right to ask for Coburn. If they're close enough that it's a 50/50 swing and they're leaning towards matching, I don't see Voracek+Mez really changing their minds. I like Mez, but he's not really that good.

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