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Weber signed to offer sheet (TSN: 14 yrs, $110m, cap hit $7.8m per yr.) Part 2

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07-23-2012, 03:03 PM
  #976
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Originally Posted by FadeToBlack View Post
Since nobody attempted a financial analysis of the Predators to see if they could afford Weber, I took it upon myself to do so. Even if revenues rise 2% (I know thats low, but I feel gate receipts and whatnot may fall for NSH next year so I went low) and costs besides bonuses and salary rise only 5% (I think that's reasonable given inflation right now) and the Preds spend to only the cap floor (If they match the Weber offer, they're at 54.711 thanks to the Kostityn signing, floor is 54.2) they would be losing almost as much money as last year, not including the loss of interest they would have from not being able to bank the ST revenue.

Here ya go... of most importance, note the month to month dollars on hand totals... Having to finance that debt for the additional time minus the loss of interest from having that cash in the bank could easily cost them an additional million bucks a year.


2011-2012



2012-2013
Post it on the main board and see what people say about this.

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07-23-2012, 03:05 PM
  #977
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Originally Posted by flyersfan9180 View Post
Post it on the main board and see what people say about this.
I will later, I just noticed a mistake, revenues were $82m last year, that spreadsheet has them calculated at $84m. I'll fix that, reupload screenshots and put it on the other Weber thread in the Trades forum.

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07-23-2012, 03:08 PM
  #978
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Originally Posted by FadeToBlack View Post
I will later, I just noticed a mistake, revenues were $82m last year, that spreadsheet has them calculated at $84m. I'll fix that, reupload screenshots and put it on the other Weber thread in the Trades forum.
Nice work on the chart. Would love to see what a lockout shortened season would do to those numbers.

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07-23-2012, 03:11 PM
  #979
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So youre saying they can't afford him?

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07-23-2012, 03:13 PM
  #980
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SO, they can't afford him unless the preds start operating like the US gov't. sweet

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07-23-2012, 03:14 PM
  #981
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Originally Posted by Snotbubbles View Post
Nice work on the chart. Would love to see what a lockout shortened season would do to those numbers.
Good idea, I'll do that as well and put that up too. FYI, the $2m in revenue doesn't make much of a difference because I had that added to expenses too. Cuts the loss $40k. So 7.347 instead of 7.387.

Not to say they can't afford him, they'd just need more capital. I'm saying this shows they can afford him, the losses wouldn't be that much worse if they're not operating on a line of credit and instead operating with a backup cash reserve. However, it royally screws up their financial situation and puts them in the red all year long instead of 5 months, haha. Once that cash reserve runs out, the additional debt would really screw them, especially if assets need to be put up to finance the debt once it hits certain levels. Without $50,000,000+ dollars sitting in a backup reserve, or some very nice revenue and profit growth over the next 3-5 seasons, this contract will be really difficult for them to match.

Also, they certainly won't be able to ice a competitive team with this contract unless they're willing to lose $15m+ per year... at least that's the case under this CBA, so you'd expect gate and other related revenues to fall... domino effect.


Last edited by FadeToBlack: 07-23-2012 at 03:20 PM.
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07-23-2012, 03:20 PM
  #982
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After the first year of 2012-2013 you have bonus money that has 14 mill allocated to it. Doesn't the OS have a payout of double that in the first calender year or did you allocate that money elsewhere..

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07-23-2012, 03:28 PM
  #983
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Originally Posted by bristhebest View Post
After the first year of 2012-2013 you have bonus money that has 14 mill allocated to it. Doesn't the OS have a payout of double that in the first calender year or did you allocate that money elsewhere..
The second bonus payment ($13MM, July 1st 2013) belongs into the 13/14 season.

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07-23-2012, 03:31 PM
  #984
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The one flaw I notice with these calculations is they assume that there will be a FULL NHL season next year.

I'd love to see what the version of those financials looks like in which there is a lock out, which is a very real possibility, and a risk that CANNOT be overlooked from nashvilles perspective.

If they are calculated to be -$7 mill per month or so with an NHL season, imagine if there isnt one, and they have to pay out all that bonus money, but with no gate, concession, tv, arena ad, parking and minimized merch revenues.

I'm not investment banker (their owner is....) but it looks like a horrible investment to make.....

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07-23-2012, 03:34 PM
  #985
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They'll still get revenues if there is a lockout... ST revenues will be held (and eventually rolled if no season is played) but gate revenues will go bye bye and I'm going to calculate a 25% drop in other revenues per month locked out. To make things simple, I'm gonna have revenues instantly jump back up to 0% deduction as soon as the lockout ends, even though that's not realistic.

Players don't get paid during a lockout, right?

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07-23-2012, 03:35 PM
  #986
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Ok I haven't been on these forums in a while...and after reading a couple of these posts I'm a bit confused.

Aren't we playing the waiting game? Isn't the ball in NSH court right now? If so, then why is everyone talking about trading Vorachek and/or other pieces to Nashville?...this is so confusing

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07-23-2012, 03:35 PM
  #987
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Where does the 17m revenue come from in July of 2012?

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07-23-2012, 03:38 PM
  #988
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Originally Posted by Krishna View Post
Where does the 17m revenue come from in July of 2012?
Jump for season ticket sales. Easier to calculate it as a bulk payment July 1st even though I should realistically spread it between July, Aug and Sept probably.

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07-23-2012, 03:40 PM
  #989
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Originally Posted by Krishna View Post
Where does the 17m revenue come from in July of 2012?
Numbers that were used seem to be exact numbers from the previous year that were adjusted due to inflation..

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07-23-2012, 03:41 PM
  #990
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Can the Preds state before the deadline if they are not matching?

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07-23-2012, 03:42 PM
  #991
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Originally Posted by bristhebest View Post
Numbers that were used seem to be exact numbers from the previous year that were adjusted due to inflation..
As I said, 2% bump in gate revenues. Given they lost Suter and a couple other big players, I think a 2% rise is fair.

Anybody know if players still get paid during a lockout? I'd think not... do they just lose that money, or do they get it when the lockout ends? IE if there's a two month lockout, are they paid a bulk check when the lockout ends in Nov/Dec?

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07-23-2012, 03:42 PM
  #992
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Can the Preds state before the deadline if they are not matching?
Yep..

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07-23-2012, 03:42 PM
  #993
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Can the Preds state before the deadline if they are not matching?
I'm sure they can, but I imagine they're going to use their full 7 days to try and work out the best course of action.

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07-23-2012, 03:45 PM
  #994
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Originally Posted by FadeToBlack View Post
As I said, 2% bump in gate revenues. Given they lost Suter and a couple other big players, I think a 2% rise is fair.

Anybody know if players still get paid during a lockout? I'd think not... do they just lose that money, or do they get it when the lockout ends? IE if there's a two month lockout, are they paid a bulk check when the lockout ends in Nov/Dec?
From what I hear. no the contracts become void as neither party has to honor with no agreement on the table, however bonus money still has to be paid out.

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07-23-2012, 03:46 PM
  #995
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And another mistake found, I duplicated SK's salary, so they still need to spend like, $2.6m to hit the floor even if they match with Suter, so they'd lose about $10m this season if they match and just spend to the floor.

I was also looking at salary, not cap... so $12m shortfall? Wow, hold on let me redo these and get back with an exact number.

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07-23-2012, 03:46 PM
  #996
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People are awesome. We really have die hard hockey fans. Somebody just showed a private jet flew from Nashville to Philadelphia today in the early morning lol. Just someone thinking about looking that up is astonishing

And they are even tweeted what kind of airplane it was. Obviously it was a "high roller" if he owns a private jet!

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07-23-2012, 03:51 PM
  #997
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Ok, question about the calculations though....

If they match the offer they may well lose money in the short term, yes, but don't they risk losing WAY more money in later years from having a significantly worse product that they can't improve?

Everyone gets the deal is a burden early on, but the issue is potential revenue in the future and whether or not losing Weber hurts that.

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07-23-2012, 03:51 PM
  #998
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Originally Posted by Fish Invictus View Post
I'm sure they can, but I imagine they're going to use their full 7 days to try and work out the best course of action.
By that sum up, can we assume that they really dont want to pay him that money since they have said before they would match any offer? Unless they are holding out that Homer caves and gives them Schenn and/or Couts.

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07-23-2012, 03:52 PM
  #999
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Originally Posted by brucewaynegretzky View Post
Ok, question about the calculations though....

If they match the offer they may well lose money in the short term, yes, but don't they risk losing WAY more money in later years from having a significantly worse product that they can't improve?

Everyone gets the deal is a burden early on, but the issue is potential revenue in the future and whether or not losing Weber hurts that.
What if they are a non playoff team with Weber? Something they have to consider.

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07-23-2012, 03:53 PM
  #1000
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Ok I haven't been on these forums in a while...and after reading a couple of these posts I'm a bit confused.

Aren't we playing the waiting game? Isn't the ball in NSH court right now? If so, then why is everyone talking about trading Vorachek and/or other pieces to Nashville?...this is so confusing
Not really confusing. Homer and Poile are playing poker. Homer has opened with a big bet, the offer sheet. He had tried to trade for the rights before Weber signed it, but Poile asked for Couturier and Brayden Schenn.

Now the ball is in Nashville's court, you are right. They have to decide to match or not. Matching will be financially troublesome - and Weber's agent's rumblings about him wanting to move doesn't help their PR sell. Not matching will not get enough return (if you think 4 late round 1st picks is too little) for a top 3 Dman in the game.

The third option is for the teams to work out a secondary deal (called a Gratton deal): if the Preds don't match, the Flyers will trade them X players for X number of the picks back.

The players we send are essentially a trade for Weber's rights as an already signed RFA, as an enticement to not match.

Why would the Flyers do this? If they REALLY want Weber, they may have to. The Preds can say, 'we're matching, unless' and Homer has to call the bluff. The problem is I think he really wants Weber.

I think the Rick Nash deal helps the Flyers here, ironically. The Rangers got a premier player, signed long term, and didn't have to give up any of their top young players or prospects. No Stepan. No McDonough. No Del Zotto. No Kreider. No Callaghan.

I think Homer can use this to say: see, let's do the same thing, but No Giroux, Schenns, Couturier or Coburn. Take your pick of two of the rest, one D, one F, and a prospect.

Offer pairs: Meszaros and Simmonds or Grossmann and Voracek? Plus Cousins or Gustafsson? If you want Mez AND Vora, no prospect. Plus keep two of the first rounders and send us back a D prospect you don't think you can sign too.

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