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How much do Flyers need to "sweeten" the deal for Nashville?

View Poll Results: What additional pieces should the Flyers offer to prevent the Preds from matching?
Meszaros and Gus/Bourdon 19 15.20%
Meszaros, Gus/Bourdon and Laughton/Cousins 10 8.00%
Meszaros, Gus/Bourdon and Voracek/Read/Simmonds 27 21.60%
Couturier/Schenn 8 6.40%
Coburn+/++ 2 1.60%
Nothing at all / call their bluff 59 47.20%
Voters: 125. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
07-23-2012, 03:30 PM
  #76
ELab2
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Originally Posted by BobbyClarkeFan16 View Post
I don't think it's a so what if they match attitude. I think Spongolium is bang on on this issue. After the Rick Nash deal, Weber's rights have a lower value than what Nashville may have thought. The fact that Nash essentially went for two spare parts, a prospect and a pick is a sign of what Poile can expect for Weber. Let's not forget either that Nash has a long term contract and Weber is an RFA. I think Poile might have to either swallow really hard and match or take a whole lot less than what he thought he was going to get.
None of this makes sense.

Weber now has a long term contract based on the offer sheet. Nashville gets 4 first round picks if they let him walk, otherwise he's locked up with no NTC. Weber's "trade value" is not as an RFA. His RFA status is utterly irrelevant to what Nashville is willing to take not to match.

There's only one other team in the equation, the Flyers. If they want Weber, and Nashville can and will match, they have to give up what Nashville wants. Otherwise they don't get Weber.

Nash's trade value has literally nothing to do with Weber's unless it puts Holmgren other more pressure to get a prime defender.

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07-23-2012, 03:38 PM
  #77
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Originally Posted by ELab2 View Post
None of this makes sense.

Weber now has a long term contract based on the offer sheet. Nashville gets 4 first round picks if they let him walk, otherwise he's locked up with no NTC. Weber's "trade value" is not as an RFA. His RFA status is utterly irrelevant to what Nashville is willing to take not to match.

There's only one other team in the equation, the Flyers. If they want Weber, and Nashville can and will match, they have to give up what Nashville wants. Otherwise they don't get Weber.

Nash's trade value has literally nothing to do with Weber's unless it puts Holmgren other more pressure to get a prime defender.
It makes total sense and Nash's trade value very much as a lot to do with what Nashville can expect for Weber's rights. Weber does not have a contract. He has an offer. People need to realize that. He's not signed, sealed and delivered. Until Nashville matches or walks away from the offer, he remains in limbo until then. If Nashville matches, then they can't deal him for a year. If Nashville walks away, first round picks they get. However, if Nashville decides to deal his rights to the Flyers, then the Nash trade is a precedent. And when you consider that Nash was dealt for what amounts to very little, I think Nashville is in no position to demand the moon because they won't get it. The Flyers don't need to add more. And the thinking that they need to add more so that Nashville won't match or they'll just deal his rights is ludicrous. If two mid level players, a prospect and first nets a signed for five years Rick Nash, then two higher end players (Meszaros and Voracek) is more than sufficient for Weber. If Poile doesn't want that, then he's a fool.

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07-23-2012, 03:40 PM
  #78
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Originally Posted by ELab2 View Post
That seems like a "so what if they match" attitude. I don't understand that. Do you want Weber or not? You're acting like you're in a universe where Nashville can't match. Unless you anyone knows that for sure, and no one does but Nashville, it makes no sense to say 4 picks or nothing.
Quote:
None of this makes sense.

Weber now has a long term contract based on the offer sheet. Nashville gets 4 first round picks if they let him walk, otherwise he's locked up with no NTC. Weber's "trade value" is not as an RFA. His RFA status is utterly irrelevant to what Nashville is willing to take not to match.

There's only one other team in the equation, the Flyers. If they want Weber, and Nashville can and will match, they have to give up what Nashville wants. Otherwise they don't get Weber.

If you're of the mind that Nashville would rather match then take any reasonble combination of roster players in a trade for him, then it makes complete sense. You obviously don't think that - and maybe you're right - but that's thinking of the people you disagree with.

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07-23-2012, 03:55 PM
  #79
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Originally Posted by NitHeel View Post
If you're of the mind that Nashville would rather match then take any reasonble combination of roster players in a trade for him, then it makes complete sense.
But that can't be a response to what do you think we should give up if necessary. You can't know if Nashville is going to match, if you answer that way you're either assuming they absolutely are or they absolutely can't. None of knows whether either of those are true, and it's probably reasonable to assume that neither is true, at that point it because costs/benefits for both teams. And from that point, if you say its 4 1sts or nothing, you're simply saying that Weber is worth that exact combination to the Flyers and no more and no different.

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07-23-2012, 04:01 PM
  #80
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Originally Posted by BobbyClarkeFan16 View Post
However, if Nashville decides to deal his rights to the Flyers, then the Nash trade is a precedent. And when you consider that Nash was dealt for what amounts to very little, I think Nashville is in no position to demand the moon because they won't get it. The Flyers don't need to add more. And the thinking that they need to add more so that Nashville won't match or they'll just deal his rights is ludicrous. If two mid level players, a prospect and first nets a signed for five years Rick Nash, then two higher end players (Meszaros and Voracek) is more than sufficient for Weber. If Poile doesn't want that, then he's a fool.
The Nash trade is not precedent because it has no bearing on a completely different kind of deal. Weber can only be a Pred or a Flyer, there hasn't been any long drawn out attempt to trade him with constant offers and rejections like Nash went through, and the Preds already know the absolute minimum they can get if they let him go.

This is nothing like a trade of a player being shopped around.

And I don't know what you keep talking about "dealing his rights." Today, as it stands, Weber can only play for two teams next year and he will have basically the same contract with both (unless the Flyers were to acquire then trade him). There are no "rights" to deal.

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07-23-2012, 04:02 PM
  #81
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Originally Posted by ELab2 View Post
But that can't be a response to what do you think we should give up if necessary. You can't know if Nashville is going to match, if you answer that way you're either assuming they absolutely are or they absolutely can't. None of knows whether either of those are true, and it's probably reasonable to assume that neither is true, at that point it because costs/benefits for both teams. And from that point, if you say its 4 1sts or nothing, you're simply saying that Weber is worth that exact combination to the Flyers and no more and no different.
"If necessary" is a complete hypothetical that Holmgren can't know before Wednesday. The only question is do you think it's a bluff or not.

No, of course you don't know if they're going to match or not. But as a GM, you have to add up all the pieces and decide which one you think is going to happen. To the people who don't think like you do here, it's an either/or thing...they either have the ability to match and will or they don't and they won't.


And to be fair, I didn't see anyone saying "4 1sts or no deal", though perhaps I missed it in the 8 trillion pages of threads. I think the opposing stance is "4 1sts or some combination of players/picks that equals 4 1sts".

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07-23-2012, 04:05 PM
  #82
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Originally Posted by ELab2 View Post
Nash's trade value has literally nothing to do with Weber's unless it puts Holmgren other more pressure to get a prime defender.
It does if it provides context/perspective to the debate and helps Poile sell a Mez+Voracek+prospect deal to his fans- it's a better return, in terms of quality, than Columbus got for Nash.

Weber wanted out, I didn't want to match, so I got the best deal I could, which is better than Columbus did, said Poile to his STHs....

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07-23-2012, 04:07 PM
  #83
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Originally Posted by NitHeel View Post
"If necessary" is a complete hypothetical that Holmgren can't know before Wednesday. The only question is do you think it's a bluff or not.

No, of course you don't know if they're going to match or not. But as a GM, you have to add up all the pieces and decide which one you think is going to happen. To the people who don't think like you do here, it's an either/or thing...they either have the ability to match and will or they don't and they won't.


And to be fair, I didn't see anyone saying "4 1sts or no deal", though perhaps I missed it in the 8 trillion pages of threads. I think the opposing stance is "4 1sts or some combination of players/picks that equals 4 1sts".
Fair enough. My thinking is just that we know that Holmgren can't know for sure whether it's a bluff. Of course you could take the chance that it isn't, but if you really want Weber you have to figure out whether you take that risk. People saying it's either/or certainly must realize that if you really want the player, as I'm sure Holmgren does, the moment that there's uncertainty about that either/or statement you have to start thinking about other assets.

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07-23-2012, 04:08 PM
  #84
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Originally Posted by Larry44 View Post
It does if it provides context/perspective to the debate and helps Poile sell a Mez+Voracek+prospect deal to his fans- it's a better return, in terms of quality, than Columbus got for Nash.

Weber wanted out, I didn't want to match, so I got the best deal I could, which is better than Columbus did, said Poile to his STHs....
That's a good point, I didn't consider that. If that that was BCF16s point I apologize. However, he seemed to be talking more about how the GM should value the return based on what's an acceptable quality compared to other trades, rather than fan perception.

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07-23-2012, 04:16 PM
  #85
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I'm confused. Nashville cannot trade Weber since he signed our offer sheet. You guys want to give up pieces to get back first round picks, rather than have productive, established NHLers?

Or am I missing something?

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07-23-2012, 04:20 PM
  #86
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Originally Posted by mypunkrock View Post
I'm confused. Nashville cannot trade Weber since he signed our offer sheet. You guys want to give up pieces to get back first round picks, rather than have productive, established NHLers?

Or am I missing something?
I think the primary point is that Nashville MIGHT match unless the Flyers agree in advance to exchange players for those/some of those picks. That's what is being discussed here at least.

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07-23-2012, 04:37 PM
  #87
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Originally Posted by ELab2 View Post
I think the primary point is that Nashville MIGHT match unless the Flyers agree in advance to exchange players for those/some of those picks. That's what is being discussed here at least.
Yes, it's a poker game. Poile has to try to extract players in a side deal, if he doesn't want just the picks.

To get players, he has to claim to be willing to match. Homer really has no choice, if he wants Weber for sure, than to make a deal. He can call Poile's bluff, at which point he loses any chance of getting Weber ever.

All we're trying to figure out is what would an acceptable price to both sides to ensure Nashville doesn't match so the Flyers get Weber.

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07-23-2012, 04:38 PM
  #88
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If they will only not match Weber's sheet if we trade for him, let them match it. I don't want to cripple the team to get a player that trading for in the first place was going to cripple the team. They either have to take the players we offer, take the picks (keep them or trade them), or keep Weber. If they were really going to work out a trade for him, they would have done so before the offer sheet was made in place of dragging their feet by not wanting to pay for their own franchise player (allowing him to hit the RFA market by not signing him long term last season to a possibly cheaper longer term deal) or trying to get too much for him like the asking price of Nash (and see what they actually got for him).

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07-23-2012, 04:38 PM
  #89
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EDIT:
Sorry I'm new her and didn't recognize the poll, but I'll still keep this up for anybody who thinks the Schenn Brothers or Voracek should go to Nashville:



Lets just put this in perspective of the Flyers with the 4 1st round picks being irrelevant because it just becomes a jumbled mess.

Predators getting B. Schenn = Flyers giving up 1/2 of Mike Richards deal.
Predators getting L. Schenn = Flyers giving up JVR deal.
Predators getting J. Voracek= Flyers giving up 1/2 of Carter deal.

Sooo:

- - -
Predators get B. Schenn + L. Schenn
Flyers get S. Weber

Predators lose S. Weber
Flyers lose B. Schenn or (1/2 M. Richards return), basically both (JVR,+ L. Schenn.)
- - -

- - -
Predators get J. Vorachek
Flyers get S. Weber

Predators lose Weber
Flyers lose J. Voracek or (1/2 J. Carter return)
- - -

Looks like you guys are way better off in hoping to get Voracek if anything no matter how the 4 draft picks are arranged.


Last edited by deftones1986: 07-23-2012 at 05:05 PM.
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07-23-2012, 04:41 PM
  #90
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Fair enough. My thinking is just that we know that Holmgren can't know for sure whether it's a bluff. Of course you could take the chance that it isn't, but if you really want Weber you have to figure out whether you take that risk. People saying it's either/or certainly must realize that if you really want the player, as I'm sure Holmgren does, the moment that there's uncertainty about that either/or statement you have to start thinking about other assets.
It will be interesting to see who is bluffing as we get to 11 pm on Weds., and I'm assuming we will.

With a half hour left to match or not match, Poile will have to make the call, agree to a trade or pay up.

Homer is in the same boat. He'll be under pressure to give in to Poile's demands or lose Weber forever.....

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07-23-2012, 04:46 PM
  #91
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Originally Posted by turkinaa View Post
If they will only not match Weber's sheet if we trade for him, let them match it. I don't want to cripple the team to get a player that trading for in the first place was going to cripple the team. They either have to take the players we offer, take the picks (keep them or trade them), or keep Weber. If they were really going to work out a trade for him, they would have done so before the offer sheet was made in place of dragging their feet by not wanting to pay for their own franchise player (allowing him to hit the RFA market by not signing him long term last season to a possibly cheaper longer term deal) or trying to get too much for him like the asking price of Nash (and see what they actually got for him).
I can see this logic, but I don't think Ed Snider is thinking this way. He WANTS Weber. And Weber wants to be a Flyer. It's going to happen.

Re: working out a trade, they only had one day before. Weber's agents told Poile he would sign Philly's offer sheet in the morning. After a full day of trade talks, Poile insisted on Couts and Brayden Schenn and would not budge. So Homer had Weber sign the offer sheet.

What Poile wasn't counting on, when he called Homer's bluff, is how front-bonus loaded the offer sheet was. He was prepared to take his medicine, and let the Flyers set the market for his boy, he didn't count on it being a poison pill delivered with an 'I'm leaving' note....

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07-23-2012, 05:15 PM
  #92
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Originally Posted by Larry44 View Post
Homer is in the same boat. He'll be under pressure to give in to Poile's demands or lose Weber forever.....
Or for one year until they can trade him after losing a lot of money regardless if there is a hockey season.

Plus I love how many GMs are aiming so high for their talent and accepting pieces that make the trade value so low. There's hope yet to snag Weber and Ryan on the dime.

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07-23-2012, 05:25 PM
  #93
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call their bluff, nash doesn't have the money for this contract...
That's exactly what this is.

This offer sheet is merely checking to see if Poile has permission from his parents to gamble an uninsured fortune.

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07-23-2012, 05:33 PM
  #94
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Yes, it's a poker game. Poile has to try to extract players in a side deal, if he doesn't want just the picks.

To get players, he has to claim to be willing to match. Homer really has no choice, if he wants Weber for sure, than to make a deal. He can call Poile's bluff, at which point he loses any chance of getting Weber ever.

All we're trying to figure out is what would an acceptable price to both sides to ensure Nashville doesn't match so the Flyers get Weber.
Some people here are very bad at poker.
Nashville will or won't match:
If they will --nothing we can do.
If they won't --They are bluffing and trying to get voracek for a 1st.

Thankfully homer is good at poker. He isn't negotiating at all; he made the offer, and now he's drinking mai-tais waiting for the response.

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07-23-2012, 05:35 PM
  #95
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I really hope Homer calls Poile's bluff. I want Poile to make Weber his greatest regret, replacing Stevens.

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07-23-2012, 08:50 PM
  #96
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Originally Posted by tuckrr View Post
Some people here are very bad at poker.
Nashville will or won't match:
If they will --nothing we can do.
If they won't --They are bluffing and trying to get voracek for a 1st.
So your view is that it's IMPOSSIBLE to get them from "will match" to "won't match" by giving them player(s)?

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07-23-2012, 09:48 PM
  #97
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So your view is that it's IMPOSSIBLE to get them from "will match" to "won't match" by giving them player(s)?
I don't think it's "will or won't" match. I think it's "can but prefer not to but will if we have to." I don't think they've made up their minds yet.

If the Preds were determined to match and there is no question in their own minds, they could have matched last Thursday - and kept Weber's agents from going out there and setting fire to the bridge by saying "he wants to play in Philly because he respects their tradition and commitment to winning."

The ONLY reason for waiting is because they aren't sure if they "can" match or the "want" to match. Trading some players for the picks will definitely move them from will to won't, otherwise they would have already played their cards.

If they want Weber, they can have him. They haven't shown it yet. If they want more than 4 picks, they have to make a deal.

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07-23-2012, 09:50 PM
  #98
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See you guys are missing the point. Tuckrr is on the spot. They are either going to match Weber or not. If they were going to match, they would. If they weren't going to match they would say "we wont match if you give us xxx xxx, etc." Predators would rather have Weber than anything on the roster the Flyers have (besides giroux or the given packages with schenns and couts). You guys are assuming Nashville wants Mez. And you are acting like they need to add in all this salary. They are what 4 million away right now (from the cap floor), plus need to add at least 3 defensemen and can still sign another forward.

Offering Voracek would be stupid. There is no point in giving him up. If Money is the issue they won't match anyway. If they have the money they would just match it. You guys are just being homers acting like Mez and 3 firsts would somehow sway the predators to give up Weber. that is just poor asset management.

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07-23-2012, 09:55 PM
  #99
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Snider is a shrewd businessman and Im sure he has a pretty good handle on how difficult it will be for Nashville to finance a matching offer. Trust me...any underwriter looking at the Preds situation is not going to part with the kind of up front money the Flyers are offering unless its at a big rate of interest and the ownership is probably not liquid enough to cover it on their own. Could be wrong but my feeling is they just cant afford weber and Holmgren should call their bluff.

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07-23-2012, 10:04 PM
  #100
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See you guys are missing the point. Tuckrr is on the spot. They are either going to match Weber or not. If they were going to match, they would. If they weren't going to match they would say "we wont match if you give us xxx xxx, etc." Predators would rather have Weber than anything on the roster the Flyers have (besides giroux or the given packages with schenns and couts). You guys are assuming Nashville wants Mez. And you are acting like they need to add in all this salary. They are what 4 million away right now (from the cap floor), plus need to add at least 3 defensemen and can still sign another forward.

Offering Voracek would be stupid. There is no point in giving him up. If Money is the issue they won't match anyway. If they have the money they would just match it. You guys are just being homers acting like Mez and 3 firsts would somehow sway the predators to give up Weber. that is just poor asset management.
Tuckrr said this:
Quote:
Nashville will or won't match:
If they will --nothing we can do.
If they won't --They are bluffing and trying to get voracek for a 1st.
You and tuckrr are failing to see that there is much more gray area here than you can see - it's not black and white.

If Nash has the cash, wants to match, and values Weber more highly than any package they can get, they would have matched already and had the press conference. We would not be having this discussion, nor would the Preds owners be meeting (today and tomorrow) to figure out a plan. Homer would not be talking to Poile about a trade.

If they are bluffing because they don't have the cash, we can call their bluff, but that comes with the risk of really not knowing whether they will match or not.

Either way, the only way to GUARANTEE that Weber is a Flyer is to eliminate their option to match by making an acceptable deal of some players in return for the picks.

They don't need picks, and they don't need salaries in return either - they need PLAYERS to replace Suter and Weber.

Mez would be a good step in that direction, while their good prospects mature. How much more is all that's left to be decided.

If, ultimately, Homer won't offer a package they can live with, they might have to match reluctantly and take the financial hit.

In the meantime, it's certainly open to discussion.

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