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How It All Unravelled, Starting Last Summer

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07-23-2012, 11:37 PM
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PredsV82
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How It All Unravelled, Starting Last Summer

I think we final have a pretty clear picture of how things went from both Weber and Suter saying that they would be here long term and us all believing it to the Charlie Foxtrot that we find ourselves in right now.

I think it all went to Hades last summer when the owners weren't at that time prepared to tell poile that he could match any offer sheet on Weber

I believe Weber(rightly or wrongly) thought he would never know what his true market value was if he only dealt with Poile.

Thus, last summer, Weber planned on shopping for offer sheets, not because he necessarily wanted to leave, but because he wanted to get paid maximum money. I think he would have been perfectly fine if Poile had matched whatever offer he had received last summer.

Suter was planning on seeing what Weber got, and then demanding the same money, having more leverage as a pending UFA.


Poile, knowing he couldn't definitely match the offer sheet Weber might get, filed for arbitration, making offer sheets impossible....

Weber says, fine, sign me for one year and we will do this again next summer

Suter sees that Weber wasn't able to set the market by offer sheet, and realizes that the only way to be sure he can get max money is to go to July 1 and see what he gets offered... and when he reached this decision, I believe he probably started taking to Parise about going home to Minnesota provided the money was good enough...

and so here we are...

I think if Poile had the green light to match offer sheets last summer Weber would have probably got something like 8milx10yrs from somebody, and if Poile had matched then Weber and Rinne would have been given the same deals and likely would have all three signed...

just a shame the owners money situation didn't firm up sooner...

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07-24-2012, 12:26 AM
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And now we're left with where to go from here.

In my mind, this is all in the hands of the fans now. They call this a franchise killer. That only happens if we let it happen. The fans need to rally around the product now, because they can take whatever they want from the Preds, but they can't take the passion. The fans need to keep showing up at the games, keep watching the games, keep supporting the team. I'm sure everyone here is up to the task.

Don't let those ******** keep us down!!

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07-24-2012, 12:27 AM
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Originally Posted by Machinehead View Post
And now we're left with where to go from here.

In my mind, this is all in the hands of the fans now. They call this a franchise killer. That only happens if we let it happen. The fans need to rally around the product now, because they can take whatever they want from the Preds, but they can't take the passion. The fans need to keep showing up at the games, keep watching the games, keep supporting the team. I'm sure everyone here is up to the task.

Don't let those ******** keep us down!!
Couldn't have put it better myself.

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07-24-2012, 12:29 AM
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Originally Posted by PredsV82 View Post
I think we final have a pretty clear picture of how things went from both Weber and Suter saying that they would be here long term and us all believing it to the Charlie Foxtrot that we find ourselves in right now.

I think it all went to Hades last summer when the owners weren't at that time prepared to tell poile that he could match any offer sheet on Weber

I believe Weber(rightly or wrongly) thought he would never know what his true market value was if he only dealt with Poile.

Thus, last summer, Weber planned on shopping for offer sheets, not because he necessarily wanted to leave, but because he wanted to get paid maximum money. I think he would have been perfectly fine if Poile had matched whatever offer he had received last summer.

Suter was planning on seeing what Weber got, and then demanding the same money, having more leverage as a pending UFA.


Poile, knowing he couldn't definitely match the offer sheet Weber might get, filed for arbitration, making offer sheets impossible....

Weber says, fine, sign me for one year and we will do this again next summer

Suter sees that Weber wasn't able to set the market by offer sheet, and realizes that the only way to be sure he can get max money is to go to July 1 and see what he gets offered... and when he reached this decision, I believe he probably started taking to Parise about going home to Minnesota provided the money was good enough...

and so here we are...

I think if Poile had the green light to match offer sheets last summer Weber would have probably got something like 8milx10yrs from somebody, and if Poile had matched then Weber and Rinne would have been given the same deals and likely would have all three signed...

just a shame the owners money situation didn't firm up sooner...

One correction:

Lou Lamoriello new that Parise was gone way before that, that is why Kovy was given such contract. So Suter and Parise already new where they will play in back 2010

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07-24-2012, 12:41 AM
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Originally Posted by Machinehead View Post
And now we're left with where to go from here.

In my mind, this is all in the hands of the fans now. They call this a franchise killer. That only happens if we let it happen. The fans need to rally around the product now, because they can take whatever they want from the Preds, but they can't take the passion. The fans need to keep showing up at the games, keep watching the games, keep supporting the team. I'm sure everyone here is up to the task.

Don't let those ******** keep us down!!
I wouldn't have agreed 5 days ago but now that I've had time to let things settle in I agree. Even if Weber is gone, we get nice picks or maybe a gentlemen's trade. This way we have tons of kids and will be damn good again soon. If we keep Weber, that's all the better too. I just don't want his contract to doom this franchise. The Predators are greater than Shea Weber.

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07-24-2012, 12:48 AM
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Considering everything we've been through as fans of this team, this certainly sucks. But, my personal opinion is that this is nowhere near as ulcer inducing as Baldy trying to buy and move the team.

So, whether Weber is a Predator or a Flyer, I'll still support this team in my little way.

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07-24-2012, 07:08 AM
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I'm a Preds fan - I'll be there regardless of what tomorrow night brings.

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07-24-2012, 07:31 AM
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Originally Posted by tserberis View Post
One correction:

Lou Lamoriello new that Parise was gone way before that, that is why Kovy was given such contract. So Suter and Parise already new where they will play in back 2010
There is absolutely no evidence to back this assertion up whatsoever.

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07-24-2012, 07:36 AM
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There is absolutely no evidence to back this assertion up whatsoever.
if there was "evidence", as you call it, it'd be tampering, and that's a pretty serious problem for an owner/franchise to get into; worse if Liarpold did it with his former team. however, there was plenty of "speculation" following them playing together at the olympics - whether that was substantive or wild-@$$ shooting-from-the-hip we know how it played out.

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07-24-2012, 07:45 AM
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if there was "evidence", as you call it, it'd be tampering, and that's a pretty serious problem for an owner/franchise to get into; worse if Liarpold did it with his former team. however, there was plenty of "speculation" following them playing together at the olympics - whether that was substantive or wild-@$$ shooting-from-the-hip we know how it played out.
The "speculation" of them playing together was just that....and it could very well have been on another team besides Minnesota.

Heck, up until the moment they signed, it was pretty much certain (according to the so-called "experts", anyways) that Suter would sign in Detroit and Parise with Pittsburgh.


Last edited by MuckOG: 07-24-2012 at 07:53 AM.
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07-24-2012, 07:46 AM
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I think alot of it was due to Poile misjudging the players preference for "lifetime" deals.

We all speculated on here that it would be a 7x7 type deal would be somewhere in the ballpark of that it would take. Since that what Rinne went for, it's safe to assume that that's what DP figured too. Turns out we were wrong by 50%.

I think had we offered the 13 yr 100 mil deals last year, they'd both be Predators.

Had Poile faxed over 2 contracts similar to what Suter signed for to each players respective agents in November, then i think it would have been very difficult for each player to walk past those deals every day in order to hit some "far off" free agency where the money would have been relatively the same.

That said, this is the benefit of hindsight. I don't think anyone anywhere expected some of the ginormous deals that were signed this summer.

Moral of the story - when you have players like Weber/Suter, you don't fart around hoping for a "fair" deal and letting them go to UFA to "establish market value". If you have to blow the market away long before they even sniff UFA - then so be it.

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07-24-2012, 08:12 AM
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Originally Posted by tserberis View Post
One correction:

Lou Lamoriello new that Parise was gone way before that, that is why Kovy was given such contract. So Suter and Parise already new where they will play in back 2010
umm no he did not. He was prepared to give Parise an offer north of 80 million over 10+ years, and was visibly upset when Zach tossed the middle finger and picked Minnesota.

What Lou knew, though, was that he couldn't offer both Pari$e AND $uter a contract. That was most likely the deal-breaker.

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07-24-2012, 08:39 AM
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I think alot of it was due to Poile misjudging the players preference for "lifetime" deals.

We all speculated on here that it would be a 7x7 type deal would be somewhere in the ballpark of that it would take. Since that what Rinne went for, it's safe to assume that that's what DP figured too. Turns out we were wrong by 50%.

I think had we offered the 13 yr 100 mil deals last year, they'd both be Predators.

Had Poile faxed over 2 contracts similar to what Suter signed for to each players respective agents in November, then i think it would have been very difficult for each player to walk past those deals every day in order to hit some "far off" free agency where the money would have been relatively the same.

That said, this is the benefit of hindsight. I don't think anyone anywhere expected some of the ginormous deals that were signed this summer.

Moral of the story - when you have players like Weber/Suter, you don't fart around hoping for a "fair" deal and letting them go to UFA to "establish market value". If you have to blow the market away long before they even sniff UFA - then so be it.
but as you said thats hindsight, nobody was expecting the ridiculous money suter and parise got... just about everyone was assuming that the cap hits would be near where they are, and in fact poile offered comparable cap hit contracts... but the massive frontloading is unprecedented...

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07-24-2012, 08:47 AM
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Regardless of what was known in the Suter situation and for that matter Parise (thought that is a different subject) he never committed here long term, regardless of what him and Poile talked about or agreed to. If you have an agreement, sign it. He never did. I also think Suter had an ego problem playing with Weber.

Weber is a different animal. I think Weber actually wanted to stay, was shocked that we filed for arbitration and things went down hill very quickly from there. I also believe Weber is frustrated with the lack of success in the playoffs and the lack of a true star forward (something he tried to do by getting Rads back and we all saw how that ended). There may have been some hard feelings about Franson, a very good friend of Weber's getting dealt. This is speculation, but I would suggest that perhaps Weber is just tired of being a big fish in a small pond. He probably thinks he could've had two Norris titles already if he was playing for any other team.

It remains to be seen what will happen, but I believe this small market killer contract is a middle finger to the Predators organization. Still, we have 48 hours now. Anything can happen.

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07-24-2012, 09:09 AM
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but as you said thats hindsight, nobody was expecting the ridiculous money suter and parise got... just about everyone was assuming that the cap hits would be near where they are, and in fact poile offered comparable cap hit contracts... but the massive frontloading is unprecedented...
Agreed.

7x7 was a very fair deal for all parties involved. Maybe 8x7 for Weber.

My point was though, if you have a guy like Weber or Suter, and you want to keep him - you cannot possibly even let him sniff UFA, because whatever you think a "fair" deal is - it's going to be blown away when he hits UFA.

If we're lucky enough to have a player the caliber of Weber, then the next time, we better be prepared to offer the "unprecedented" deal at least a year before UFA. Make them an offer they literally cannot refuse.

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07-24-2012, 09:16 AM
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Tired

This is really starting to get tiresome. Hurry up and get over with already. I wish the Preds had done a few things differently 1-2 yrs ago and signed both guys to 8-10 yr contracts. They were both young and would be a Pred for life basically. When you have good players, lock them up early so you don't have to go through this.

With that being said, I do wish Weber stays, BUT if we do not match SO BE IT! We still have to sign some more players to reach the min salary even with Weber. I would have Weber come to the office and ask him "do you want to stay a Pred for life or go to Philly?" Then I would do what he says. Plain and simple. Move on. We are not NYR or Philly or Montreal, we do not want or need all of this drama.

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07-24-2012, 09:18 AM
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Agreed.

7x7 was a very fair deal for all parties involved. Maybe 8x7 for Weber.

My point was though, if you have a guy like Weber or Suter, and you want to keep him - you cannot possibly even let him sniff UFA, because whatever you think a "fair" deal is - it's going to be blown away when he hits UFA.

If we're lucky enough to have a player the caliber of Weber, then the next time, we better be prepared to offer the "unprecedented" deal at least a year before UFA. Make them an offer they literally cannot refuse.
but this is exactly my point... Weber wouldnt have taken ANY deal from Poile because I believe he was assuming no matter what Poile offered someone else out there might offer more, and thus his desire to se his value by offer sheet.

had ownership been able to tell Poile "thats fine, let him get an offer sheet and we will cover it, no matter what", I think Weber would have received nearly the same total money with less up front, and we could have matched and moved on to Suter... although Rinne would have probably cost more as a result..

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07-24-2012, 09:28 AM
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but this is exactly my point... Weber wouldnt have taken ANY deal from Poile because I believe he was assuming no matter what Poile offered someone else out there might offer more, and thus his desire to se his value by offer sheet.

had ownership been able to tell Poile "thats fine, let him get an offer sheet and we will cover it, no matter what", I think Weber would have received nearly the same total money with less up front, and we could have matched and moved on to Suter... although Rinne would have probably cost more as a result..
Maybe.

If Poile had slapped a 13yr 100 mil deal on the table prior to arb and said "here's the best deal you're ever going to get from us", what are the odds he signs it?

It would take a very confident agent and player to pass up a deal like that in order to go to arb, sign a 1 year deal (with attendant risk of injury, poor performance, etc) in order to possibly cash in more later.

Maybe they both would have had giant cojones, but human nature says a bird in hand is better than 2 in the bush, and I'm betting at least one of them would have taken the dough.

Once you let a player get to make those other visits - he's got Philly figuring out how to structure a deal to hurt you, he's got his wife chirping in his ear about Minnesota, he's visiting old friends and conspiring to play with them - then not only are you bidding against the money from other organizations, you're bidding against their sales pitches and outside influences.

Next time, if we end up with someone the caliber of Weber, then the management needs to do every single thing possible to keep him from testing both the RFA/UFA market.

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07-24-2012, 09:32 AM
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umm no he did not. He was prepared to give Parise an offer north of 80 million over 10+ years, and was visibly upset when Zach tossed the middle finger and picked Minnesota.

What Lou knew, though, was that he couldn't offer both Pari$e AND $uter a contract. That was most likely the deal-breaker.
So what? Other 10 clubs were prepared too, but in deep they all knew where they both would end up.
Same with Richards last year. It was known from that get go it would be Rags.

There is also why Suter wasn't traded. Who would pick him and give away assets for only a year of his service???


You don't listen to what they all say. You look at what they do. Because what they say is only for public ears. It calls politics.

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07-24-2012, 11:05 AM
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Maybe.

If Poile had slapped a 13yr 100 mil deal on the table prior to arb and said "here's the best deal you're ever going to get from us", what are the odds he signs it?
Based on apparent Weber's desire to get paid early, I'd guess that his signing your hypothetical 13yr/$100mil deal would depend on structure. It's just like the reports that Suter agreed to term and total dollars earlier last season .... that's great, but, did they ever agree upon contract structure? Tossing around generic terms and averaged numbers is great, but, when it comes down to it these deals depend on details and money in any given calendar / season year. Weber's offer is $7.85mil per year when looked at on average ... which is VERY reasonable. The problem is it's $27mil in the first 49 weeks ... a hellish amount to cough up in such a short time span.

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07-24-2012, 11:16 AM
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Based on apparent Weber's desire to get paid early, I'd guess that his signing your hypothetical 13yr/$100mil deal would depend on structure. It's just like the reports that Suter agreed to term and total dollars earlier last season .... that's great, but, did they ever agree upon contract structure? Tossing around generic terms and averaged numbers is great, but, when it comes down to it these deals depend on details and money in any given calendar / season year. Weber's offer is $7.85mil per year when looked at on average ... which is VERY reasonable. The problem is it's $27mil in the first 49 weeks ... a hellish amount to cough up in such a short time span.
Don't disagree, but then again, maybe you don't even get to that conversation.

Or maybe you toss in some signing bonus that is acceptable to both you and the player.

My point being, if we're faced with this scenario next time, we need to make sure we have our ultimate best offer on the table early. We don't need to be waiting for anyone to set the market for us.

We also need to be playing a little hardball. Put the gigantic offer out there and put a deadline of July 1st - we're not going to get in a bidding war. We've put our best offer out there and if you don't want it, we're moving on to option 2. That way you give the player something to think about - will I be leaving money on the table if I go out and search for FA offers? And, we don't get caught with our junk in the wind (Bryan Allen would look pretty good in gold right about now).

If we were prepared to pay UFA prices for both Weber and Suter, why did we let them go UFA - when Suter could be convinced by "family issues" or Weber could get spooked and decide he wanted to play in Philly.

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07-24-2012, 11:29 AM
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Don't disagree, but then again, maybe you don't even get to that conversation.

Or maybe you toss in some signing bonus that is acceptable to both you and the player.

My point being, if we're faced with this scenario next time, we need to make sure we have our ultimate best offer on the table early. We don't need to be waiting for anyone to set the market for us.

We also need to be playing a little hardball. Put the gigantic offer out there and put a deadline of July 1st - we're not going to get in a bidding war. We've put our best offer out there and if you don't want it, we're moving on to option 2. That way you give the player something to think about - will I be leaving money on the table if I go out and search for FA offers? And, we don't get caught with our junk in the wind (Bryan Allen would look pretty good in gold right about now).

If we were prepared to pay UFA prices for both Weber and Suter, why did we let them go UFA - when Suter could be convinced by "family issues" or Weber could get spooked and decide he wanted to play in Philly.
Structure is always part of the discussion. If Poile throws a $110 mil deal out there at $12mil per year for the first 6, $8mil of that in bonuses for the first four seasons, leaving more pay in the later years ... that's great if the player is only looking for $$$$/years. If they are looking for a huge up front payday, it very well might not be enough and they might counter with that same $110mil in the Weber offer sheet structure.

Fans can get as upset as we want. We throw around arbitrary deadlines on message boards constantly ... so why July 1st? Why not May 28th or June 13th? Weber could get an offer sheet on the 1st so if Poile were shopping him on that date and Weber accepts an offer .... same situation as today. (not that isn't what reportedly happened with Philly)

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07-24-2012, 11:50 AM
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Structure is always part of the discussion. If Poile throws a $110 mil deal out there at $12mil per year for the first 6, $8mil of that in bonuses for the first four seasons, leaving more pay in the later years ... that's great if the player is only looking for $$$$/years. If they are looking for a huge up front payday, it very well might not be enough and they might counter with that same $110mil in the Weber offer sheet structure.

Fans can get as upset as we want. We throw around arbitrary deadlines on message boards constantly ... so why July 1st? Why not May 28th or June 13th? Weber could get an offer sheet on the 1st so if Poile were shopping him on that date and Weber accepts an offer .... same situation as today. (not that isn't what reportedly happened with Philly)
I'm not going to present an exact plan. That's DP's job.

We don't know what they would have signed for last year - it could have been a straight 13x100. It could have been a frontloaded deal. Both players may have thrown caution to the wind and said "I want to test UFA no matter what".

Safe to say, they were never offered anything close to the deals they signed. They were never offered anything that made them think twice about exploring UFA options or searching for offer sheets.

The July 1st date is important because it lets the player know that:

1. We're not going to be part of driving up the price.
2. He stands a real chance of leaving money on the table if the market doesn't bear what the Preds were willing to pay.

Both are inducements to sign early. Both require DP playing a little hardball.


Again, we have no idea what would have happened had Weber and Suter been offered deals anywhere near what they just signed for. If you let them go UFA/RFA, then you're at the mercy of other teams money and sales pitches. They absolutely could have been looking for frontloaded mega-signing bonuses.

Then again, that would have required the player leaving a 100 million contract on the table for a year or more in order to search for that signing bonus. Maybe I'm wrong, but I have a hard time seeing alot of guys reject that.

Again, neither player was given a fair market value offer until he went out and got it from another team. Just something to remember next time we have a player the caliber of a Weber/Suter.

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07-24-2012, 12:05 PM
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I'm not going to present an exact plan. That's DP's job.

We don't know what they would have signed for last year - it could have been a straight 13x100. It could have been a frontloaded deal. Both players may have thrown caution to the wind and said "I want to test UFA no matter what".

Safe to say, they were never offered anything close to the deals they signed. They were never offered anything that made them think twice about exploring UFA options or searching for offer sheets.

The July 1st date is important because it lets the player know that:

1. We're not going to be part of driving up the price.
2. He stands a real chance of leaving money on the table if the market doesn't bear what the Preds were willing to pay.

Both are inducements to sign early. Both require DP playing a little hardball.


Again, we have no idea what would have happened had Weber and Suter been offered deals anywhere near what they just signed for. If you let them go UFA/RFA, then you're at the mercy of other teams money and sales pitches. They absolutely could have been looking for frontloaded mega-signing bonuses.

Then again, that would have required the player leaving a 100 million contract on the table for a year or more in order to search for that signing bonus. Maybe I'm wrong, but I have a hard time seeing alot of guys reject that.

Again, neither player was given a fair market value offer until he went out and got it from another team. Just something to remember next time we have a player the caliber of a Weber/Suter.
That last part is a complete unknown. They may or may not have been offered fair market value just not in the structure they wanted. If the reports of Suter agreeing to $$$$/years in November are true, that counters the contention that he wasn't offered market value. The rumored long term offers to Weber last summer were all fair market value, but, he wanted a short term deal .... the amount is similar between the rumored offers and what Weber's agent is now saying he could have been signed for last year ... again, a matter of deal structure.

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