You and tuckrr are failing to see that there is much more gray area here than you can see - it's not black and white.
If Nash has the cash, wants to match, and values Weber more highly than any package they can get, they would have matched already and had the press conference. We would not be having this discussion, nor would the Preds owners be meeting (today and tomorrow) to figure out a plan. Homer would not be talking to Poile about a trade.
If they are bluffing because they don't have the cash, we can call their bluff, but that comes with the risk of really not knowing whether they will match or not.
Either way, the only way to GUARANTEE that Weber is a Flyer is to eliminate their option to match by making an acceptable deal of some players in return for the picks.
They don't need picks, and they don't need salaries in return either - they need PLAYERS to replace Suter and Weber.
Mez would be a good step in that direction, while their good prospects mature. How much more is all that's left to be decided.
If, ultimately, Homer won't offer a package they can live with, they might have to match reluctantly and take the financial hit.
In the meantime, it's certainly open to discussion.
You said it yourself in this post. If they had the money to match and wanted to match, they would have done so already. Or they are pissed the flyers offer sheeted weber and are going to make them wait all week to match it.
Preds GM has nothing to gain by saying "you win, you get weber". He is going to pretend they might actually match. It is black and white. If the Preds would trade Weber, it would be for like couts and schenn.
The only 2 options, they are going to match, or bluffing to rob homer.
All I know is that if the Flyers get him by calling Poile's bluff I want to hear how it all went down.....I think Poile is trying to play possum but he's effectively dead. They can't afford Weber.....if they decide to try and afford him they will bankrupt themselves in the long run. I mean Weber doesn't even want to commit to them.....
All I know is that if the Flyers get him by calling Poile's bluff I want to hear how it all went down.....I think Poile is trying to play possum but he's effectively dead. They can't afford Weber.....if they decide to try and afford him they will bankrupt themselves in the long run. I mean Weber doesn't even want to commit to them.....
its really is fascinating if you can divorce yourself from the emotion as a fan... talk about high stakes poker.... if the Preds owners really can allow poile to match, then poile holds the winning hand and it will be up to holmgren to decide how badly he wants weber...
do you guys really think Holmgren is OK missing out on Weber?
If so, Poile obviously will get nowhere in trying to get players instead of picks.. but if he really REALLY wants Weber and thinks there is a chance Poile will match then he probably agrees to a deal tomorrow, don't you think?
as I have said elsewhere, I think the owners have told poile to see if he can get a more acceptable return and if its good enough, then let Weber go, but if Holmgren won't give in, then he will be allowed to match.
its really is fascinating if you can divorce yourself from the emotion as a fan... talk about high stakes poker.... if the Preds owners really can allow poile to match, then poile holds the winning hand and it will be up to holmgren to decide how badly he wants weber...
do you guys really think Holmgren is OK missing out on Weber?
If so, Poile obviously will get nowhere in trying to get players instead of picks.. but if he really REALLY wants Weber and thinks there is a chance Poile will match then he probably agrees to a deal tomorrow, don't you think?
as I have said elsewhere, I think the owners have told poile to see if he can get a more acceptable return and if its good enough, then let Weber go, but if Holmgren won't give in, then he will be allowed to match.
A little under half the people in the thread voted to not trade anything and call the bluff. I really think most are excited about getting Weber but would rather not trade a good portion of the future for him. I think Holmgren is steadfast on not trading Schenn or Couturier for Weber and I think at most Mez and Voracek are on the table. And even then I think Homer really thinks Poile can't match and I don't think he will budge
its really is fascinating if you can divorce yourself from the emotion as a fan... talk about high stakes poker.... if the Preds owners really can allow poile to match, then poile holds the winning hand and it will be up to holmgren to decide how badly he wants weber...
do you guys really think Holmgren is OK missing out on Weber?
If so, Poile obviously will get nowhere in trying to get players instead of picks.. but if he really REALLY wants Weber and thinks there is a chance Poile will match then he probably agrees to a deal tomorrow, don't you think?
as I have said elsewhere, I think the owners have told poile to see if he can get a more acceptable return and if its good enough, then let Weber go, but if Holmgren won't give in, then he will be allowed to match.
--For what its worth, the only exchange homer & poile have had is a brief '**** you'
No gratton trade is imminent, its up to nashville to match or not to match.
Interestingly enough, I don't think even Nashville knows if they can match --hence the holdup. They are running the numbers to see how screwed they would really be after this contract and likely lockout.
ultimately with this much money on the line, I'd bet they fold.
Btw, they hate us so much right now that if it was in the 'grey' they'd prefer to match short of couturier.
--For what its worth, the only exchange homer & poile have had is a brief '**** you'
No gratton trade is imminent, its up to nashville to match or not to match.
Interestingly enough, I don't think even Nashville knows if they can match --hence the holdup. They are running the numbers to see how screwed they would really be after this contract and likely lockout.
ultimately with this much money on the line, I'd bet they fold.
Btw, they hate us so much right now that if it was in the 'grey' they'd prefer to match short of couturier.
I don't think its about hate. Poile has been around long enough to know this is all business and reportedly he and Holmgren are personally friendly.
what we were hearing is Holmgren got frustrated at poile not coming down off his trade demands and put the OS out there to force the issue. I think he was counting on Poile preferring to trade than match and thinks he can get Poile to take less of a return this way...
The longer it goes (and we're within 47 hours now), the more likely Weber becomes a Flyer. Even before the offer sheet, it's clear Poile was considering cutting losses with Weber. If it's taking this long to match, the ownership could be persuaded by Poile to allow him to match, but they're still not sold if we're going to go into Day 6. And I don't see ownership greenlighting Poile spending $27M on one player, and $80M over 6 years just to turn around and trade him a year from now, or after they spent the money (unless the new CBA allows teams to spend money in trades again).
Holmgren has no reason to cave in, because worst case scenario is that no one in the East gets him if the Flyers don't, while leaving Poile in an untenable situation is simply collateral damage. He's right in thinking this was the best chance to get Weber, for as long as they wanted him.
If they don't want a combination of players that doesn't include Giroux/Schenn(s)/Couturier, then I'd challenge them to match. If Nashville bankrupts themselves spending $100M on two players in the next 6 years, that's not our problem.
The longer it goes (and we're within 47 hours now), the more likely Weber becomes a Flyer. Even before the offer sheet, it's clear Poile was considering cutting losses with Weber. If it's taking this long to match, the ownership could be persuaded by Poile to allow him to match, but they're still not sold if we're going to go into Day 6. And I don't see ownership greenlighting Poile spending $27M on one player, and $80M over 6 years just to turn around and trade him a year from now, or after they spent the money (unless the new CBA allows teams to spend money in trades again).
Holmgren has no reason to cave in, because worst case scenario is that no one in the East gets him if the Flyers don't, while leaving Poile in an untenable situation is simply collateral damage. He's right in thinking this was the best chance to get Weber, for as long as they wanted him.
I don't think waiting til day 6 necessarily means its a no-go on matching... more likely what has gone on is two-fold... first, the owners have been deciding if the can match and if so, arranging contingencies to have the $13 million cash available because its due upon signing. That likely took a few days..
In the meantime, Poile has probably been not just talking to Holmgren about a "trade in lieu of not matching" but probably other teams setting up possible trades involving the Philly picks to see what other moves are possible if the choose not to match... for instance, I would think Poile has at least spoken to Calgary about J-Bo as a backup plan(or maybe even Phoenix about Yandle since they may be most likely to take picks), and if he has a deal thats ready to go, that may go a long way to making it clear which way is the best to go
most likely the meetings held tonight and/or tomorrow boiled down to discussing all of those possibilities and choosing the best one...
If it's taken this long to decide to spend $13M, then there's questions as to whether or not they actually want to spend it ahead of having it together. Would love to know how they would have signed him otherwise, they would have spent at least half of that in salary and signing bonus had they re-signed him.
I don't think its about hate. Poile has been around long enough to know this is all business and reportedly he and Holmgren are personally friendly.
what we were hearing is Holmgren got frustrated at poile not coming down off his trade demands and put the OS out there to force the issue. I think he was counting on Poile preferring to trade than match and thinks he can get Poile to take less of a return this way...
so now we will see how it all ends...
They were trying to move Weber, the flyers screwed them over. Hate is an understatement.
They were trying to move Weber, the flyers screwed them over. Hate is an understatement.
actually they were trying to sign Weber, or, failing that, move him.
the offer sheet gives us the chance to sign him. it may suck mightily, but if we do sign him then the Flyers at least forced Weber to crap or get off the pot...
actually they were trying to sign Weber, or, failing that, move him.
the offer sheet gives us the chance to sign him. it may suck mightily, but if we do sign him then the Flyers at least forced Weber to crap or get off the pot...
They were shopping him, after Suter left. The flyers didnt like the price, and royally screwed the predators. Whether or not the flyers get Weber at this point, the Nashville MGMT 'Hates' Ed Snider at this moment.
The only 2 options, they are going to match, or bluffing to rob homer.
Or the third option: we found the money to match, but prefer to trade him the picks for players if the return is right, because the contract and bonuses will hamstring us.
As Dreger said, and was repeated in this thread, they may feel they can take the picks and deal them elsewhere, or would rather get Meszaros and a forward and a prospect for two of the picks, then deal the other two for JBo or Yandle. That would replace the first pairing they just lost pretty well, with two 20+minute guys.
What the Flyers did by going the OS route is try to force a trade. The only way Snider (and let's not kid ourselves, Ed is pulling the strings) can ensure he gets Weber is to make sure the Preds don't match by making it worth their while to walk away.
All that is left to be determined is will the best offer meet the final demand?
Not sure at what point this offer was on the table, pre or post offer sheet, but according to Sam Charchidi, he tweeted the following:
"Per Dregger, Trade Flyers had on table: Read/Mez/ 2x1st/ 1x2nd/ 1x3rd"
If thats the case, couldnt be happier really.
I don't think the Pred's can match the offer. I think the trade talk is simply because Nashville is going to need roster players, and Philly will want to restock the cupboard sometime in the next half decade, and there are viable options still available in FA to replace players sent out, at no additional cost.
If they traded the above, you can go out and sign a Doan, or even Semin for that matter to play the wing, you keep Voracek and basically the line-up would be sick.
We have the depth at D to run without Mesz, or at the least you give them a shot, and maintain a bit of a cap cushion to add at or approaching the deadline if needed.
I think that Weber insisted on getting these bonuses ( atleast first 2 years, due to potential lockout, otherwise he could potentially lose 27 million and nobody is that stupid )
Preds probably offered him a contract with high salary but minimal bonuses and a shorter term and more spread out ( since cap hit is irrelevant for a team like Nashville, salary matters )
They went to a impasse, probably negotiated with Weber a list of teams were he would like to go, and a estimate what he would ask.
Poile contacted these teams ( Rangers,Flyers,Vancouver etc..) and started a auction of some sort, and probably tough he could negotiate a trade in peace for atleast a month
Asked Flyers for alot ( Couturier, Schenn +, which for a signed Weber is reasonable )
Homie thought others would make more tempting offer, wasnt willing to offer moon for Weber ( Smart ), and Sketched a offersheet that was brilliant.
Weber thought he gets his money and weighted the gamble Nashville would not match, because it would be hell to go to Nashville after signing the sheet.
So i really think there is no reason to sweeten the deal, but if there is a real hockey trade to be made, ( think what trade you would make if this Weber saga didnt exist ) then he should go for it.
Tldr if Nashville can match, they match, if not they wont.
I think that Weber insisted on getting these bonuses ( atleast first 2 years, due to potential lockout, otherwise he could potentially lose 27 million and nobody is that stupid )
Preds probably offered him a contract with high salary but minimal bonuses and a shorter term and more spread out ( since cap hit is irrelevant for a team like Nashville, salary matters )
They went to a impasse, probably negotiated with Weber a list of teams were he would like to go, and a estimate what he would ask.
Poile contacted these teams ( Rangers,Flyers,Vancouver etc..) and started a auction of some sort, and probably tough he could negotiate a trade in peace for atleast a month
Asked Flyers for alot ( Couturier, Schenn +, which for a signed Weber is reasonable )
Homie thought others would make more tempting offer, wasnt willing to offer moon for Weber ( Smart ), and Sketched a offersheet that was brilliant.
Weber thought he gets his money and weighted the gamble Nashville would not match, because it would be hell to go to Nashville after signing the sheet.
So i really think there is no reason to sweeten the deal, but if there is a real hockey trade to be made, ( think what trade you would make if this Weber saga didnt exist ) then he should go for it.
Tldr if Nashville can match, they match, if not they wont.
I think you have a good read on Holmgrens line of thinking.
The ultimate question is, just how badly does Holmgren want/need Weber?
I think what will happen today is Poile calls Holmgren and says "we work out a deal today or else we match"
Holmgren either believes Poile, and the two reach a deal, and the offer sheet is then not matched and whatever other trade happens, or Holmgren doesnt believe Poile (or doesnt care if he loses Weber) and then we find out if poile is bluffing.
Personally I think the Preds will reluctantly match if the only option is the 4 firsts but would rather trade if something decent can be worked out.
I think you have a good read on Holmgrens line of thinking.
The ultimate question is, just how badly does Holmgren want/need Weber?
I think what will happen today is Poile calls Holmgren and says "we work out a deal today or else we match"
Holmgren either believes Poile, and the two reach a deal, and the offer sheet is then not matched and whatever other trade happens, or Holmgren doesnt believe Poile (or doesnt care if he loses Weber) and then we find out if poile is bluffing.
Personally I think the Preds will reluctantly match if the only option is the 4 firsts but would rather trade if something decent can be worked out.
Somehow I doubt their ownership group reportedly consisting of 10 people looking at the "bottom line" will agree to match..especially given the below info...
Hey but more power to them buying a McMansion and being house poor and then being foreclosed upon in the out years....
Quote:
After last season, the leader of the local ownership group told the Tennessean newspaper that ownership members had been forced to put $60 million of their own money into the operation over the last five years, largely to cover losses.
I think that if they dont match, it is really going to be hard for that franchise to be successful in the future. They will have to draft a stanley cup team , since attracting free agents is almost impossible.
I am not envious of the position they are in one bit.
I'd prefer not to trade any forwards at the moment.
If all we have to give up is Read and Mezaros, you make the deal, regardless if you think that nashville can match or not. Read can be replaced easily within the organisation, So can Mezaros. While Read is a fantastic player, we have players with speed and PK ability to replace him.
Same with Mezaros. Gustaffson is ready to be an NHL player. He showed it last year, he just needs the chance. The flyers will effectively clear the room for him to join the team, being pushed by Gervais and MAB.
Somehow I doubt their ownership group reportedly consisting of 10 people looking at the "bottom line" will agree to match..especially given the below info...
Hey but more power to them buying a McMansion and being house poor and then being foreclosed upon in the out years....
that article you quoted was not accurate, the $60 million was not largely to cover losses, the majority of the money was to buy out Boots DelBiaggio. Plus we have added B. Wilson to the ownership group and he is filthy rich...
and in any case, all we need is the ability to make Holmgren think we will match, and then see just how badly he wants Weber.
I wont dispute that poile and our ownership group would rather trade Weber than match that abomination of a contract, but if all we are getting is 4 first they may just bite the bullet and match
With Carchidi's comment on twitter this morning, that they havent had any trade talks at all... It completely knocked the wind out of the small hope I had, unless Poile is just a really crappy GM, I think they match.
edit: Im still of the opinion that the contract will absolutely cripple Nashville's chances at success if they do match though. Economically and on the ice, it doesn't make much sense. But does Poile really want to be remembered as Santa Clause?
With Carchidi's comment on twitter this morning, that they havent had any trade talks at all... It completely knocked the wind out of the small hope I had, unless Poile is just a really crappy GM, I think they match.
Just because there has been no talk between homer and nashville doesnt mean ****.
