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07-24-2012, 11:30 AM
  #1
ICdave
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What will the Jets do with Tobias Enstrom?



Rich takes a look a what might happen with Tobias Enstrom.

Part 1 examines Enstrom as a player. To read click here.

Part 2 compares him to some other D-men from around the league and where his contract numbers might end up. To read click here

As always, opinions are welcome.

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07-24-2012, 12:31 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WpgMikos View Post


Rich takes a look a what might happen with Tobias Enstrom.

Part 1 examines Enstrom as a player. To read click here.

Part 2 compares him to some other D-men from around the league and where his contract numbers might end up. To read click here

As always, opinions are welcome.
Stellar breakdown as usual by Rich WpgMikos

Part 2 really lays it out and I think the comps are spot on. Toby (pending new CBA outcome) will fetch about $6.2 to $6.5 million per year.

We will need to pay up or pull the trigger on a trade!

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07-24-2012, 12:32 PM
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Great breakdown. I wrote this in the comments:

Quote:
The biggest issue with trading Toby is the Jets lack of a replacement. He is a top pairing defender and he is left handed. Bogo, Buff, Postma and Redmond are all accustomed to playing on the right side.

That leaves one of Stu, Hainsey, Clitsome or Meech to take top pairing minutes on the left side.

That would scare the crud out of me, especially when you consider that Hainsey and Clitsome are also pending UFAs. Combine that with zero NHL ready left D prospects and the Jets can't really afford to let him go.

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07-24-2012, 12:41 PM
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I keep going back and forth on Enstrom - I think I'd prefer that they pay up, and re-sign him. If the contract is reasonable, they can always deal him from a position of strength (depending on NTC / NMC that he may get inserted into this contract).

I have such a good feeling about the ability to truly compete for a playoff spot this year, that I get the feeling they'd end up in a Suter type situation at the deadline. If the Jets are competing for a spot in the playoffs, they can't trade him. This would be the worst situation possible in terms of asset management.

If the Jets do trade Enstrom, does that cause enough damage on D that competing for a playoff spot this year will be difficult? I think this is the big question regarding trade or sign. I suppose it depends on the pieces coming back in the trade.

I'm one of those "Kool-Aid" drinkers though, so I'm assuming that Chevy will do what's right for the club. If they trade him, I'll wish him luck on his new team. If they keep him, I'll cheer him on as a Jet.


Last edited by YWGinYYZ: 07-24-2012 at 12:49 PM.
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07-24-2012, 12:44 PM
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Originally Posted by YWGinYYZ View Post

I have such a good feeling about the ability to truly compete for a playoff spot this year, that I get the feeling they'd end up in a Suter type situation at the deadline. If the Jets are competing for a spot in the playoffs, they can't trade him. This would be the worst situation possible in terms of asset management.
Agree we can't go into season with him not under contract.....if we are in a playoff race the pressure not to trade him away will be very high especially if he is having a very good year......Lets get him inked up or get what we can and move on

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07-24-2012, 12:49 PM
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Originally Posted by YWGinYYZ View Post
If the Jets do trade Enstrom, does that cause enough damage on D that competing for a playoff spot this year will be difficult? I think this is the big question regarding trade or sign. I suppose it depends on the pieces coming back in the trade.
I think it would regardless of what we got back.

Toby is the Jets #1 LD and he doesn't have anybody close to challenging him.

Would another team offer a #1 LD in a package for Toby? I can't see it.

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07-24-2012, 12:50 PM
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Originally Posted by truck View Post
I think it would regardless of what we got back.

Toby is the Jets #1 LD and he doesn't have anybody close to challenging him.

Would another team offer a #1 LD in a package for Toby? I can't see it.
That's what I'm afraid of, and why I've swung back to the "get him signed" side of things.

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07-24-2012, 12:55 PM
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Good D man. Good person. If you are in a small market environment, you need to proactively hold on to your top tier players - there are deep pocket poachers out there that will scr*w your franchise in a heartbeat.

However, if he won't re-sign at a little above market, the handwriting is on the wall: trade him.

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07-24-2012, 12:59 PM
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I agree with Truck and YYGinYYz,

IMO, our need for another top 6 forward isn't as dire as before, and I think losing Enstrom creates a big hole on the top pair (as we don't really have another person who can handle 20+ minutes), and we also don't have a potential top LHD either on the team, or in the system.

I'm leaning towards hoping we get Enstrom signed as it appears that losing him may cause more problems than whatever positives we might gain in a trade.

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07-24-2012, 01:10 PM
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Nice writeup, it really is a tough call on Toby. In my opinion he really doesn't have any untapped potential, what you see is what you get. I think come trade deadline if the Jets are close to a playoff spot there's no way they trade him. That being said if at any point during the season you can get a top 6 forward for him I think you probably pull the trigger. Toby's valuable but he doesn't exactly fit into the Jets mold of physicality moving forward.

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07-24-2012, 01:12 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by truck View Post
Great breakdown. I wrote this in the comments:
...Truck said moving Toby would scare the crud out of him

Truck, I know this line of thinking I propose is not popular....but

Trading anybody from an org that has not been in the playoffs for forever doesn't even scare a little crud out of me. I am also a koolaid drinker (for now), and buy into the theory that these guys are going to take steps to try and change a culture of defeat, and any deal will include what they believe to be the right return.

If they decide that Toby, Buff, Little or anyone else needs to go - then I am ok with it. Remember, this franchise is no better than Columbus, Toronto or Calgary when it comes to recent playoff success (ala nada). It's not like our "top guys" have been winning Hart, Norris or Conn Smythe trophies, so to say I would be scared of moving anyone is just not part of my opinion.

Except Bogo ....fire away!


Last edited by TCsmyth: 07-24-2012 at 01:15 PM. Reason: Adding quote
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07-24-2012, 01:13 PM
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Lets try and trade him and Kane and get alot.

Hes good, but I think he won't be able to do an important skill when hes older.

Kane on the other hand I think is highly overrated, hes not as good as people say, plus we could get a ton out of him.

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07-24-2012, 01:24 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TCsmyth View Post
...Truck said moving Toby would scare the crud out of him

Truck, I know this line of thinking I propose is not popular....but

Trading anybody from an org that has not been in the playoffs for forever doesn't even scare a little crud out of me. I am also a koolaid drinker (for now), and buy into the theory that these guys are going to take steps to try and change a culture of defeat, and any deal will include what they believe to be the right return.

If they decide that Toby, Buff, Little or anyone else needs to go - then I am ok with it. Remember, this franchise is no better than Columbus, Toronto or Calgary when it comes to recent playoff success (ala nada). It's not like our "top guys" have been winning Hart, Norris or Conn Smythe trophies, so to say I would be scared of moving anyone is just not part of my opinion.

Except Bogo ....fire away!
I didn't say moving Toby would scare me. I am all for trades that make the team better, but putting Hainsey, Stu, Meech or Clitsome on the first pair would scare the crud out or me. The Jets simply don't have somebody else that capable of playing those minutes well. Moving Toby would make the team substantially worse on the back end.

I agree, TNSE will try to clean out any bad seeds, but I don't know the players and refuse to speculate as to who isn't and isn't a fit in the locker room. All I can go off of is on ice performance.

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07-24-2012, 01:35 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by truck View Post
I didn't say moving Toby would scare me. I am all for trades that make the team better, but putting Hainsey, Stu, Meech or Clitsome on the first pair would scare the crud out or me. The Jets simply don't have somebody else that capable of playing those minutes well. Moving Toby would make the team substantially worse on the back end.

I agree, TNSE will try to clean out any bad seeds, but I don't know the players and refuse to speculate as to who isn't and isn't a fit in the locker room. All I can go off of is on ice performance.
Don't misunderstand, sorry I wasn't clear....I am not insinuating any bad seeds, just that by moving anyone, it's not like we are breaking up the 1975 Canadiens. We have not won with what ATL / WPG has, so it isn't like we would be breaking up Champions.

Again, not suggesting they move him or anyone else...just that it wouldn't fuss me a whole lot.

Serious question, who took up all the minutes when Toby was hurt last year? I thought we played very well, and if I am not mistaken, the minutes were soaked up by a combo of Bogo, Hains and Stuart...anybody help me on that recollection?

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07-24-2012, 02:05 PM
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Originally Posted by TCsmyth View Post
Don't misunderstand, sorry I wasn't clear....I am not insinuating any bad seeds, just that by moving anyone, it's not like we are breaking up the 1975 Canadiens. We have not won with what ATL / WPG has, so it isn't like we would be breaking up Champions.

Again, not suggesting they move him or anyone else...just that it wouldn't fuss me a whole lot.

Serious question, who took up all the minutes when Toby was hurt last year? I thought we played very well, and if I am not mistaken, the minutes were soaked up by a combo of Bogo, Hains and Stuart...anybody help me on that recollection?
Minutes were divided up. If I remember correctly Hainsey spent a bunch of time with Bogo and Oduya got paired with Buff. Oduya is gone and Hainsey is a short term solution.

Did the Jets do well without him? I don't know if they did that much better or worse, but you can't read too much into small samples.

Without Toby the Jets went 11-7-3, but they were 1-3-2 in their first 6.
They also allowed 4 or more goal in 7 of the 20 games including 6 twice and 7 once. I wouldn't say that is great defensive play.

When he came back, they went 5-1-1 in their first seven, but totaled to 23-22-6 through the rest of the season. Plus, Buff, Kane and Bogo missed a bunch of time there and Pavi fell apart.

How much better or worse the record was with and without Toby doesn't mean much.

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07-24-2012, 02:09 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by truck View Post
Minutes were divided up. If I remember correctly Hainsey spent a bunch of time with Bogo and Oduya got paired with Buff. Oduya is gone and Hainsey is a short term solution.

Did the Jets do well without him? I don't know if they did that much better or worse, but you can't read too much into small samples.

Without Toby the Jets went 11-7-3, but they were 1-3-2 in their first 6.
They also allowed 4 or more goal in 7 of the 20 games including 6 twice and 7 once. I wouldn't say that is great defensive play.

When he came back, they went 5-1-1 in their first seven, but totaled to 23-22-6 through the rest of the season. Plus, Buff, Kane and Bogo missed a bunch of time there and Pavi fell apart.

How much better or worse the record was with and without Toby doesn't mean much.
Thanks for the stats, yes it was Johnny O that soaked up some of the minutes...cheers

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07-24-2012, 02:17 PM
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Enstrom will be a gamble, another year like last and he really isn't worth much, but if he plays to his potential or at least as well as he had in the past he will command a lot.

The jury is still out on him in a Jets uniform, saw some good things last season but really didn't like seeing him manhandled as he was against certain teams last season.

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07-24-2012, 02:35 PM
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Enstrom would be harder to move if he was the QB on the #1 PP and a significant PKer. He's neither. IMO it would be hard to pay him $6.5 million for what he provides and as a budget franchise. The term he would likely look for would take us well into Wheeler, Kane, Burmistrov and Bogosian's prime (UFA years) and into Scheifele's 2nd deal. That is a significant amount of money if those guys turn out.

Right now is a good time to strike pending the outcome of Weber and with Nash to NYR. Teams like Detroit, Philly, Vancouver, maybe Nashville if they take the picks, have space to accomodate a high salaried player at this point, and a need or want for one.

If we could get something like this, I'd be all over it:

To WPG:

Brendan Smith
Landon Ferraro (or a different solid top 9 prospect)
filler [draft pick(s)]

To DET:

Toby Enstrom
[filler, draft pick or mid-level prospect (Gregoire, rights to Kulda)]

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07-24-2012, 02:43 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by truck View Post
How much better or worse the record was with and without Toby doesn't mean much.
Well, it did suggest that the wheels didn't exactly fall off the team in his absence. It also suggests that those claiming it is vital that the Jets keep Enstrom are perhaps overstating things a bit, small sample size or not. Regardless, I believe that any decision as to whether they keep him will boil down to financial details; perhaps the team will feel they'd rather allocate the money elsewhere given that Little, Wheeler, & Bogo will all require RFA deals at the end of next season.

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07-24-2012, 02:56 PM
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I agree with Truck and YYGinYYz,

IMO, our need for another top 6 forward isn't as dire as before, and I think losing Enstrom creates a big hole on the top pair (as we don't really have another person who can handle 20+ minutes), and we also don't have a potential top LHD either on the team, or in the system.

I'm leaning towards hoping we get Enstrom signed as it appears that losing him may cause more problems than whatever positives we might gain in a trade.
I'm with you's on this one, I'd like to keep Enstrom too. There have been times over the course of the season and heading into this offseason that I was open to dealing him if it brought us a good top 6 forward in return, but with the offseason moves we have made and the steps forward our players should take, I really like our mix and team right now. We've got some holes i'm sure we'll come to realize (all or most teams endure them) but as it stands right now I feel quite comfortable with what Chevy has done to date and what we have to work with headed into the season.

Enstrom is indeed small and that can be a bit of a downfall for a defenceman who logs the minutes he does and has the responsibilities he does, but we can surround him with bigger players so his size isn't the be all, end all in terms of whether we should keep him or not, in my opinion. He serves a purpose and can play a key role, so I think he can be a valuable piece here in Winnipeg both this season and beyond.

If we could sign Enstrom to a 4-5 year deal at 5.5-5.75, i'd be happy with that. I'd really rather not go north of 6 million though, but we'll see what happens if we do re-sign him.

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07-24-2012, 03:00 PM
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Well, it did suggest that the wheels didn't exactly fall off the team in his absence. It also suggests that those claiming it is vital that the Jets keep Enstrom are perhaps overstating things a bit, small sample size or not. Regardless, I believe that any decision as to whether they keep him will boil down to financial details; perhaps the team will feel they'd rather allocate the money elsewhere given that Little, Wheeler, & Bogo will all require RFA deals at the end of next season.
It is all about sample size and the Jets had more Left D options last year.

It will surely be about money, but like the Pav situation, they don't have a better option.

Don't forget, Burmi will need a new deal too.

Thankfully Antropov and Hainsey and their rather large cap hits will come off the books. Jets could give all four of them and Toby $2 mill raises without a significant increase in spending.

Add 2 mill to each deal:
Wheeler $4,550,000
Little $4,383,333
Bogo $4,500,000
Burmi $3,500,000
Toby $5,750,000

It wouldn't be impossible to do something like that... Give or take here and there.

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07-24-2012, 03:02 PM
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I'm with you's on this one, I'd like to keep Enstrom too. There have been times over the course of the season and heading into this offseason that I was open to dealing him if it brought us a good top 6 forward in return, but with the offseason moves we have made and the steps forward our players should take, I really like our mix and team right now. We've got some holes i'm sure we'll come to realize (all or most teams endure them) but as it stands right now I feel quite comfortable with what Chevy has done to date and what we have to work with headed into the season.

Enstrom is indeed small and that can be a bit of a downfall for a defenceman who logs the minutes he does and has the responsibilities he does, but we can surround him with bigger players so his size isn't the be all, end all in terms of whether we should keep him or not, in my opinion. He serves a purpose and can play a key role, so I think he can be a valuable piece here in Winnipeg both this season and beyond.

If we could sign Enstrom to a 4-5 year deal at 5.5-5.75, i'd be happy with that. I'd really rather not go north of 6 million though, but we'll see what happens if we do re-sign him.
I wouldn't mind that either.

The Carle comparable would be quite reasonable.

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07-24-2012, 03:23 PM
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Originally Posted by BigZ65 View Post
Enstrom would be harder to move if he was the QB on the #1 PP and a significant PKer. He's neither. IMO it would be hard to pay him $6.5 million for what he provides and as a budget franchise. The term he would likely look for would take us well into Wheeler, Kane, Burmistrov and Bogosian's prime (UFA years) and into Scheifele's 2nd deal. That is a significant amount of money if those guys turn out.

Right now is a good time to strike pending the outcome of Weber and with Nash to NYR. Teams like Detroit, Philly, Vancouver, maybe Nashville if they take the picks, have space to accomodate a high salaried player at this point, and a need or want for one.

If we could get something like this, I'd be all over it:

To WPG:

Brendan Smith
Landon Ferraro (or a different solid top 9 prospect)
filler [draft pick(s)]

To DET:

Toby Enstrom
[filler, draft pick or mid-level prospect (Gregoire, rights to Kulda)]
Interesting post.

I was going to propose Enstrom for Brendan Smith. I really don't think we need O assets as much as we do D assets at this point especially if we can't get Toby into a reasonable deal.

Smith is 23 years old and ready for prime time now after paying his dues in the Detroit system. He is 6'2" 205 (ish) former 1st round draft choice and a left handed shot with offensive upside. Smith, Bogosian, and Trouba would be three quarters of a very special long term top 4 grouping. Plus we would have him until he was 27 years old (pending new CBA). Toby is going to cost us $6 million a year in his new deal and although I like Toby more than most Jets fans but I think his offensive talents are redundant on a team with Buff, Bogosian, and Postma and I think Smith will put up 30 points this year.

I firmly believe Smith could play top 4 minutes this year (I could be wrong). I salivate at the thoughts of a Smith Bogosian top pairing in a year or two.

The problem is I really doubt Detroit would touch this.

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07-24-2012, 03:49 PM
  #24
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Like this idea
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Originally Posted by ps241 View Post
Interesting post.

I was going to propose Enstrom for Brendan Smith. I really don't think we need O assets as much as we do D assets at this point especially if we can't get Toby into a reasonable deal.

Smith is 23 years old and ready for prime time now after paying his dues in the Detroit system. He is 6'2" 205 (ish) former 1st round draft choice and a left handed shot with offensive upside. Smith, Bogosian, and Trouba would be three quarters of a very special long term top 4 grouping. Plus we would have him until he was 27 years old (pending new CBA). Toby is going to cost us $6 million a year in his new deal and although I like Toby more than most Jets fans but I think his offensive talents are redundant on a team with Buff, Bogosian, and Postma and I think Smith will put up 30 points this year.

I firmly believe Smith could play top 4 minutes this year (I could be wrong). I salivate at the thoughts of a Smith Bogosian top pairing in a year or two.

The problem is I really doubt Detroit would touch this.
Like this idea and the players mentioned.With the guys to resign in the next few years,6m plus for Toby is just to much money.The time for trading him is right now.

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07-24-2012, 04:06 PM
  #25
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Originally Posted by BigZ65 View Post
Enstrom would be harder to move if he was the QB on the #1 PP and a significant PKer. He's neither. IMO it would be hard to pay him $6.5 million for what he provides and as a budget franchise. The term he would likely look for would take us well into Wheeler, Kane, Burmistrov and Bogosian's prime (UFA years) and into Scheifele's 2nd deal. That is a significant amount of money if those guys turn out.

Right now is a good time to strike pending the outcome of Weber and with Nash to NYR. Teams like Detroit, Philly, Vancouver, maybe Nashville if they take the picks, have space to accomodate a high salaried player at this point, and a need or want for one.

If we could get something like this, I'd be all over it:

To WPG:

Brendan Smith
Landon Ferraro (or a different solid top 9 prospect)
filler [draft pick(s)]

To DET:

Toby Enstrom
[filler, draft pick or mid-level prospect (Gregoire, rights to Kulda)]
Why would the Wings do this? Not that its a terrible deal but I think Smith has a higher ceiling than Enström.

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