I fully agree. Flyers have no reason to overpay, Ducks have no reason to give up Ryan for something that doesn't make the team better.
But to call Voracek + Meszaros + 1st spectacular overpayment for Ryan is just downright silly.
The difference between a 22 year-old, two-way, 50 point winger, and a 25 year-old, two-way, 70 point winger, is not a young top-4 defenseman and a first round pick.
It seems to me that as a matter of pure value, Voracek + Mez or Voracek + 1st is much closer than all three together.
The difference between a 22 year-old, two-way, 50 point winger, and a 25 year-old, two-way, 70 point winger, is not a young top-4 defenseman and a first round pick.
It seems to me that as a matter of pure value, Voracek + Mez or Voracek + 1st is much closer than all three together.
Meszaros turns 28 in few monts. Not old, not young. His contract is not exactly greatness either.
The difference between 20g, 50p winger and 35g,70p winger is pretty big, especially given that Ryan brings much more physicality.
That 1st rounder is pretty late one, it's not like you're trading a top10 pick.
Personally I think Voracek, Meszaros and Flyers 1st is not fair value for Ryan.
Meszaros turns 28 in few monts. Not old, not young. His contract is not exactly greatness either.
The difference between 20g, 50p winger and 35g,70p winger is pretty big, especially given that Ryan brings much more physicality.
That 1st rounder is pretty late one, it's not like you're trading a top10 pick.
Personally I think Voracek, Meszaros and Flyers 1st is not fair value for Ryan.
Mezsaros turns 27 in October. That draft pick won't likely be top-10, but it could be around 20 again.
Agree to disagree, I guess. I just don't see past precedents in which a player of Ryan's caliber returned two good, young NHL players as well as a 1st. (Voracek is a clear tier above Dubinsky / AA--who are closer to Mezsaros' level).
Mezsaros turns 27 in October. That draft pick won't likely be top-10, but it could be around 20 again.
You're right, he turns 27 in october. My bad.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jeh82
Agree to disagree, I guess. I just don't see past precedents in which a player of Ryan's caliber returned two good, young NHL players as well as a 1st. (Voracek is a clear tier above Dubinsky / AA--who are closer to Mezsaros' level).
Yes, we agree to disagree.
Also I'd argue that Voracek has POTENTIAL to be a tier above Dubinsky. Right now he's not above. Same goes for AA who's about the same age and has similar stats.
Also I'd argue that Voracek has POTENTIAL to be a tier above Dubinsky. Right now he's not above. Same goes for AA who's about the same age and has similar stats.
With the exception of one break-out season (which came at the age of 25), Dubinsky's production tracks pretty closely with Jake's--except the latter did it at age 18-21. Anisimov has only topped 40 points once--and, again, is 2 years older. If you look at their stats, Voracek is a step ahead of each player in terms of average production, etc.--and that's without taking into account the age difference.
I don't think it is a stretch to suggest that he's a more valuable asset.
With the exception of one break-out season (which came at the age of 25), Dubinsky's production tracks pretty closely with Jake's--except the latter did it at age 18-21. Anisimov has only topped 40 points once--and, again, is 2 years older. If you look at their stats, Voracek is a step ahead of each player in terms of average production, etc.--and that's without taking into account the age difference.
I don't think it is a stretch to suggest that he's a more valuable asset.
Of course he's more valuable because he still has time to up his game and reach his potential. What's somewhat worrying is the fact that Voracek hasn't been able to crack 50p since his second NHL season. Last season he got more PP time per game than all other Flyers forwards except Giroux.
Next season will tell a lot (assuming there's a CBA in place...)
Its more fair calling Voracek a 50 pt player as he has been within that total 3 times. 50 pts once, 49 Once, 46 once, the past 3 seasons.
Ryan has had 71 pts once, and every other year his highest is 64, having only broke 60 points twice in his career. the other good years are with totals of 57 points each.
Thats hardly a 70 point player when we are looking at avg here. where as Voracek can be referred to as a 50 pt player because his average is much much closer to that title, even though they have each only his there designations once.
Ryan is not a 70 point player, but a 70 point threat, and a 60 point player. Voracek is a 50 point player, at current for both.
Most people probably don't realize when they do this.
Hardly.
The way I read his comment, the poster was characterizing the production he felt reasonably could be expected next year--and not describing past accomplishments. If he was doing the former, then he might be low-balling Jake a bit, but he isn't being inconsistent. If he's doing the latter, then both are incorrect, or at least partially incorrect. You chose to treat the two aspects of the post with different standards. Pointing out that inconsistency is not an "ad hominem" attack--particularly because I was not using it to dispute your claim, but rather raising the point to get you to clarify your position.
While Ryan has never had a 35 goal-70 point season, he's had a 34 goal, 71 point season. Jake has never broken 20 goals, so characterizing him as a 20 goal, 50 point player can't be considered a fair characterization of his past accomplishments, can it?
This is all a bit silly anyway. I think most of us can agree that Ryan is a better player--and that Jake will not likely ever develop to match Ryan's offensive production--particularly his goal-scoring. The disagreement seems to come in sizing up the difference between Ryan's peak and Jake's potential, on the one hand, and ascertaining the value of that difference, on the other.
Im going to say it, Anaheim Duck fans are delusional. I don't think they are a playoff team next year. Perry and Getzlaf are very nice pieces to have, but beyond that(Ryan and Selanne) they really have nothing. Koivu is old as dirt and slowed terribly by injuries. DSP is still very young, and they are expecting a lot from a player who hasn't played a full season in the NHL. Their depth is horrible, besides their four star players.
Defense is also a struggle for them. Yes they did sign Souray(slower and old) and Bryan Allen(not much offense), but they will not dramatically improve that team. Fowler took a step back last year from all I heard, and Sbisa is still developing into a top 4 defender. I believe it would be their teams best interest to maybe start a mini rebuild, and I am not just saying trading Ryan to us. They are still some ways off I feel from being a Stanley Cup contender.
Im going to say it, Anaheim Duck fans are delusional. I don't think they are a playoff team next year. Perry and Getzlaf are very nice pieces to have, but beyond that(Ryan and Selanne) they really have nothing. Koivu is old as dirt and slowed terribly by injuries. DSP is still very young, and they are expecting a lot from a player who hasn't played a full season in the NHL. Their depth is horrible, besides their four star players.
Defense is also a struggle for them. Yes they did sign Souray(slower and old) and Bryan Allen(not much offense), but they will not dramatically improve that team. Fowler took a step back last year from all I heard, and Sbisa is still developing into a top 4 defender. I believe it would be their teams best interest to maybe start a mini rebuild, and I am not just saying trading Ryan to us. They are still some ways off I feel from being a Stanley Cup contender.
And I thought I was pessimistic about this upcoming season...
