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The case for a 1-year surgical tank for the Habs

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Old
07-27-2012, 09:59 AM
  #176
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Originally Posted by PricePkPatch View Post
Let me ask you a hypothetical question.

Let say we do or don't sign Doan. Let's say we are in 6th-7th place comes march/February.

How about then? Should We do our best to try to become a contender and acquire a powerful veteran?
No. Because that powerful veteran would most likely be a UFA. Otherwise, that powerful veteran will cost an arm and leg. At the moment, the Habs have 4 picks in the first two rounds. Let's give Timmins the opportunity to draft a nasty core.

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07-27-2012, 10:06 AM
  #177
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Originally Posted by PricePkPatch View Post
Yup. With Markov back and Bouillon as depth, Kaberle already present, our D is better than last year.

Kaberle + Markov >> Spacek + Gill
I had an argument on this thread last year.

I said Markov+Gorges wouldn't replace Hamrlik+Wisniewski. I was right. The others were wrong.

There are new injuries every single year. Every single offseason habs fans say "next year when we have no injuries". When are some of you going to learn? There will be new injuries every year.

2011-2012
Markov, Gionta, Gomez, Moen, Eller.

2010-2011
Cammalleri, Pacioretty, Markov, Gorges.

2009-2010
Markov, Cammalleri, Kostitsyn, Oh burned.

2008-2009
Schneider, Tanguay, Latendresse, Lang, Higgins, Koivu, Komisarek... worst year for injuries that I can recall.

2007-08
The magical no injuries year we hear about on HFBoards every summer. Habs finished 1st in the conference and were a bona fide stanley cup contender.


Last edited by DAChampion: 07-27-2012 at 10:11 AM.
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07-27-2012, 10:09 AM
  #178
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Originally Posted by Carey Price View Post
It has nothing to do with the fans, where do you see me mention the fans anywhere in my post?
OK, you're right. I misread your post.

Ultimately, I think UFAs will come when we offer the most money (see Gionta, Cammalleri), and when we're headed in the right direction.

I hope we can make a run at Corey Perry next summer. It's a long shot, but he's exactly what we're missing long-term. It will take something like 10 years, 90 million dollars (assuming the current cap).

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07-27-2012, 10:09 AM
  #179
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Originally Posted by SeriousHabs View Post
No. Because that powerful veteran would most likely be a UFA. Otherwise, that powerful veteran will cost an arm and leg. At the moment, the Habs have 4 picks in the first two rounds. Let's give Timmins the opportunity to draft a nasty core.
Exactly. The players on the roster should have a solid feeling this is a throwaway year.

They're not getting Semin or Jagr and why give them some some help at the trade deadline, either.

Take it easy boys, save yourself for next year.

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07-27-2012, 10:11 AM
  #180
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
OK, you're right. I misread your post.

Ultimately, I think UFAs will come when we offer the most money (see Gionta, Cammalleri), and when we're headed in the right direction.

I hope we can make a run at Corey Perry next summer. It's a long shot, but he's exactly what we're missing long-term. It will take something like 10 years, 90 million dollars (assuming the current cap).
I don't see Perry even reaching free agency.

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07-27-2012, 10:18 AM
  #181
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Originally Posted by Et le But View Post
I don't see Perry even reaching free agency.
Bergevin has already failed to sign Semin, Jagr, Parise, or Suter, which is where I base my tanking/rebuilding/evaluation/transition/development theory.

He could still surprise me.

He could sign Doan, which would raise us from a 11-15th place team to a 6-10th place team.

He could also propose the following trade to Anaheim:

To Anaheim
Eller
Bourque
Beaulieu
2012 1st rounder

To Montreal:
Bobby Ryan

Ultimately, this roster is not competing for a playoff spot barring a miracle. However, if we mortgage the future, we can compete for a playoff spot this year. I fully agree with that statement.

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07-27-2012, 10:25 AM
  #182
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This thread amounts to game playing without rules and without any time limit. The tankards insist on prolonging it until they can wear out their skeptics. In chess, a game that goes on for 50 moves without a pawn move or piece capture is an automatic draw regardless of which player has the better position. This is what the OP is playing for despite having the weaker position. In real life Bergevin won't allow it to get this far. As general manager it would be suicidal for him to tear apart the Habs to appease dilettantes who have no stake in the game but lots of time to waste on brainstorms.

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Old
07-27-2012, 10:32 AM
  #183
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
Bergevin has already failed to sign Semin, Jagr, Parise, or Suter, which is where I base my tanking/rebuilding/evaluation/transition/development theory.

He could still surprise me.

He could sign Doan, which would raise us from a 11-15th place team to a 6-10th place team.

He could also propose the following trade to Anaheim:

To Anaheim
Eller
Bourque
Beaulieu
2012 1st rounder

To Montreal:
Bobby Ryan

Ultimately, this roster is not competing for a playoff spot barring a miracle. However, if we mortgage the future, we can compete for a playoff spot this year. I fully agree with that statement.
We currently have more talent on the roster than 4-5 teams that made the playoffs last year, not sure you equate that we need a miracle.

If they can score 15 more goals and give up 15 less they'd be a 5th or 6th place team and in the hunt for top 3(division winner).

As I have said multiple times for every player that may see a drop in production(Pacioretty? Cole?) we have about 6-7 guys that can give us a lot more next year like Markov Gionta Bourque Kaberle Emelin Eller Plekanec Moen. That's not including newcomers like Armstrong Prust Bouillon and potentially another UFA/trade addition.

In terms of last year's standings, nobody has more upside to climb quickly than the Habs. Even in a crappy year where a lot more went wrong than right, the +- was only -14. That's better than Florida who won their freaking division and only 6 from Washington who took our Boston.

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07-27-2012, 10:32 AM
  #184
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Teufelsdreck View Post
This thread amounts to game playing without rules and without any time limit. The tankards insist on prolonging it until they can wear out their skeptics. In chess, a game that goes on for 50 moves without a pawn move or piece capture is an automatic draw regardless of which player has the better position. This is what the OP is playing for despite having the weaker position. In real life Bergevin won't allow it to get this far. As general manager it would be suicidal for him to tear apart the Habs to appease dilettantes who have no stake in the game but lots of time to waste on brainstorms.
This is a discussion forum. It's meant to discuss things.

If you're into the hollow instant gratification of competing for 8th place, then that's your thing and so be it. However, some of us don't care for mediocrity. We want to see championships. We want to see a Stanley Cup in Montreal, and we have a sufficiently long attention span that we're willing to wait longer than 5 minutes. If it takes a season of development then so be it, that's much better than a decade of bubble teams.

Your strategy has been in place since the 1993-1994 season. It has brought nothing. 20 years without the Cup. We're turning into the Maple Leafs. Every year 1993 bears more and more resemblance to 1967.

There are rules to this thread. If Bergevin mortgages the future to trade for players to help us win now, then the thread is obsolete. But as it stands this team is a lottery team. And as long as this team is a lottery team then that is the correct paradigm to discuss strategy.

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Old
07-27-2012, 10:46 AM
  #185
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
Jacques Martin was a very good coach. He took a very poor team and made it 8th and 6th in two seasons. However, this is not the same team. We've lost Hamrlik, Wisniewski, Halpern from the early parts when Martin took us to 6th place. We lost Cammalleri and Kostitsyn from last year's team.

This team is extremely weak. You disagree, that's fine. However, you'll have no choice but to agree when the team is struggling in December.
Fair enough. But will you do the same if they're not? Or will you attribute that to temporary insanity?

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Old
07-27-2012, 10:47 AM
  #186
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~

Quote:
Originally Posted by Carey Price View Post
We currently have more talent on the roster than 4-5 teams that made the playoffs last year, not sure you equate that we need a miracle.

If they can score 15 more goals and give up 15 less they'd be a 5th or 6th place team and in the hunt for top 3(division winner).

As I have said multiple times for every player that may see a drop in production(Pacioretty? Cole?) we have about 6-7 guys that can give us a lot more next year like Markov Gionta Bourque Kaberle Emelin Eller Plekanec Moen. That's not including newcomers like Armstrong Prust Bouillon and potentially another UFA/trade addition.

In terms of last year's standings, nobody has more upside to climb quickly than the Habs. Even in a crappy year where a lot more went wrong than right, the +- was only -14. That's better than Florida who won their freaking division and only 6 from Washington who took our Boston.
OK, you and I have gone back and forth for 4 pages. I will try and summarize our current positions and come to an acceptable resolution. I hope you find this post agreeable.

There are several minor disagreements between us, but I think you'll agree that the major disagreement is our assessment of the strength of the current roster.

You believe that the strength of the current roster is that of a bubble team, and perhaps even one of the better bubble teams. I think if you were forced to bet you might say 7th place in the eastern conference, or something close to that.

If that was my belief, that the habs were a 6th-10th place, then I would not have made this thread. In fact in no previous summer have I supported such a strategy, as this is the first time I consider the Habs an 11th-15th place team. If I thought the Habs were one of the better bubble teams (and I was GM), I would be throwing money at Shane Doan, and trying to trade for a defensive defenseman with size, which is something we need until Tinordi is ready.

However, I consider the Habs an 11th-15th place team. I don't think that's worth mortgaging the future over. Part of the difference, I think, is that you are making the "no injury approximation" when projecting the roster, whereas I prefer to assume the most likely event based on recent seasons, that 2 of our 10 best players will be injury at any given time.

You mention Bourque several times. I have not addressed Bourque. I think your hope is that Bourque can bounce back to being a 25-25 player. My view of Bourque? He was fanning on beautiful passes from Eller in so many games last season. If that's permanent, he's done. However, if it's not, then he could bounce back... but he'll never be a 25-25 player from the third line. If he is to reach those numbers again it will be with top-6 minutes and PP time. At that point however, he will be taking ice time away from someone who should be in the top-6, and reducing their numbers. For example, if Pacioretty gets injured, we might lose his 35 goals but gain 25 goals from Bourque. Bourque would have "bounced back", but it's a net loss from the team.

Conclusion:
We will see who is right with respect to the strength of the current roster by the all-star break. If I'm wrong and this team is in ~7th place (which you consider more likely), then Bergevin might consider trading a 2nd rounder for some missing piece, like when Gauthier acquired Wisniewski or Gainey acquired Moore. If the team is in ~12th place (which I consider more likely), I think Bergevin needs to start assessing the trade market for selling veterans, to both cash in on the 2013 draft and clear cap space for the 2013 UFA class.

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07-27-2012, 10:53 AM
  #187
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
OK, you and I have gone back and forth for 4 pages. I will try and summarize our current positions and come to an acceptable resolution. I hope you find this post agreeable.

There are several minor disagreements between us, but I think you'll agree that the major disagreement is our assessment of the strength of the current roster.

You believe that the strength of the current roster is that of a bubble team, and perhaps even one of the better bubble teams. I think if you were forced to bet you might say 7th place in the eastern conference, or something close to that.

If that was my belief, that the habs were a 6th-10th place, then I would not have made this thread. In fact in no previous summer have I supported such a strategy, as this is the first time I consider the Habs an 11th-15th place team. If I thought the Habs were one of the better bubble teams (and I was GM), I would be throwing money at Shane Doan, and trying to trade for a defensive defenseman with size, which is something we need until Tinordi is ready.

However, I consider the Habs an 11th-15th place team. I don't think that's worth mortgaging the future over. Part of the difference, I think, is that you are making the "no injury approximation" when projecting the roster, whereas I prefer to assume the most likely event based on recent seasons, that 2 of our 10 best players will be injury at any given time.

You mention Bourque several times. I have not addressed Bourque. I think your hope is that Bourque can bounce back to being a 25-25 player. My view of Bourque? He was fanning on beautiful passes from Eller in so many games last season. If that's permanent, he's done. However, if it's not, then he could bounce back... but he'll never be a 25-25 player from the third line. If he is to reach those numbers again it will be with top-6 minutes and PP time. At that point however, he will be taking ice time away from someone who should be in the top-6, and reducing their numbers. For example, if Pacioretty gets injured, we might lose his 35 goals but gain 25 goals from Bourque. Bourque would have "bounced back", but it's a net loss from the team.

Conclusion:
We will see who is right with respect to the strength of the current roster by the all-star break. If I'm wrong and this team is in ~7th place (which you consider more likely), then Bergevin might consider trading a 2nd rounder for some missing piece, like when Gauthier acquired Wisniewski or Gainey acquired Moore. If the team is in ~12th place (which I consider more likely), I think Bergevin needs to start assessing the trade market for selling veterans, to both cash in on the 2013 draft and clear cap space for the 2013 UFA class.
I agree with most of what you said. I'm happy MB has not made any "mortgage the future" deals. I'm also happy he hasn't dumped guys like Kaberle and Bourque for nothing, first, because we'd have to spend money to replace them anyways and second, because they can be a lot better than they were last year, at least wait till they bounce back then move them for a much bigger return.

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07-27-2012, 10:53 AM
  #188
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Originally Posted by Paul Dipietro View Post
Fair enough. But will you do the same if they're not? Or will you attribute that to temporary insanity?
If this current roster is in 6th or 7th place without any anomalies taking place then I will of course need to think about how I was so wrong.

An anomaly would be if someone like Chara would miss the season due to a concussion. That would raise the position of the other 4 teams in the division. Strange things happen, and such strange things could carry us to a 6th place finish even if you agree with my analysis.

Another anomaly would be if Bergevin mortgages the future, like the Bobby Ryan trade I invented above.

I also think we're a bubble team if we have a "no injury year" like in 2007-08.

However, if we make 6th place or approximately that in a typical injury year and without any blockbuster trades that mortgage the future, then that will show that my analysis is severely flawed. I think that's clear at this point.

I've been wrong before. For example, last summer I thought Jeff Carter and James Wisniewski would greatly improve the Blue Jackets roster.

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07-27-2012, 11:28 AM
  #189
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The thought of planning a tank would make me quit watching,the team is in good shape this year.Anyone remember what Markov plays like Bouillon back to bolster the defence,along with Emelin and Diaz in their sophomore seasons.The Defence Rests,the offence in the meantime adding Prust was probably as good a move as any this off-season for under $100mil.Armstrong should drive the opposition crazy as he loves to do drawing penalties and PKing.Bourque could be the surprise offensively and for hitting and if he doesn't then Shane Doan will be on Plekanec's line.All in All it promises to be an interesting season,if Carey Price is in top form (Vezina Trophy)and PK with Markov taking pressure off of him,the Habs will make the playoffs.Galchenyuk may stick after the pre-season if so, long playoff run finally with the cousins getting a shot at the Lord Stanley Cup.Surgical or not tanking isn't the way to build a winner,character and hard work with talent throughout the lineup is the way.

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Old
07-27-2012, 11:39 AM
  #190
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
OK, you and I have gone back and forth for 4 pages. I will try and summarize our current positions and come to an acceptable resolution. I hope you find this post agreeable.

There are several minor disagreements between us, but I think you'll agree that the major disagreement is our assessment of the strength of the current roster.

You believe that the strength of the current roster is that of a bubble team, and perhaps even one of the better bubble teams. I think if you were forced to bet you might say 7th place in the eastern conference, or something close to that.

If that was my belief, that the habs were a 6th-10th place, then I would not have made this thread. In fact in no previous summer have I supported such a strategy, as this is the first time I consider the Habs an 11th-15th place team. If I thought the Habs were one of the better bubble teams (and I was GM), I would be throwing money at Shane Doan, and trying to trade for a defensive defenseman with size, which is something we need until Tinordi is ready.

However, I consider the Habs an 11th-15th place team. I don't think that's worth mortgaging the future over. Part of the difference, I think, is that you are making the "no injury approximation" when projecting the roster, whereas I prefer to assume the most likely event based on recent seasons, that 2 of our 10 best players will be injury at any given time.

You mention Bourque several times. I have not addressed Bourque. I think your hope is that Bourque can bounce back to being a 25-25 player. My view of Bourque? He was fanning on beautiful passes from Eller in so many games last season. If that's permanent, he's done. However, if it's not, then he could bounce back... but he'll never be a 25-25 player from the third line. If he is to reach those numbers again it will be with top-6 minutes and PP time. At that point however, he will be taking ice time away from someone who should be in the top-6, and reducing their numbers. For example, if Pacioretty gets injured, we might lose his 35 goals but gain 25 goals from Bourque. Bourque would have "bounced back", but it's a net loss from the team.

Conclusion:
We will see who is right with respect to the strength of the current roster by the all-star break. If I'm wrong and this team is in ~7th place (which you consider more likely), then Bergevin might consider trading a 2nd rounder for some missing piece, like when Gauthier acquired Wisniewski or Gainey acquired Moore. If the team is in ~12th place (which I consider more likely), I think Bergevin needs to start assessing the trade market for selling veterans, to both cash in on the 2013 draft and clear cap space for the 2013 UFA class.
I've followed your posts throughout this thread and basically agree with your assessment.

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07-27-2012, 11:41 AM
  #191
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
This is a discussion forum. It's meant to discuss things.

If you're into the hollow instant gratification of competing for 8th place, then that's your thing and so be it. However, some of us don't care for mediocrity. We want to see championships. We want to see a Stanley Cup in Montreal, and we have a sufficiently long attention span that we're willing to wait longer than 5 minutes. If it takes a season of development then so be it, that's much better than a decade of bubble teams.

Your strategy has been in place since the 1993-1994 season. It has brought nothing. 20 years without the Cup. We're turning into the Maple Leafs. Every year 1993 bears more and more resemblance to 1967.

There are rules to this thread. If Bergevin mortgages the future to trade for players to help us win now, then the thread is obsolete. But as it stands this team is a lottery team. And as long as this team is a lottery team then that is the correct paradigm to discuss strategy.
See your whole argument is flawed because they are not going into the season fighting for 8th spot. All teams go in fighting for first and things unfold like injuries, trades, etc.

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07-27-2012, 11:59 AM
  #192
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
Bergevin has already failed to sign Semin, Jagr, Parise, or Suter, which is where I base my tanking/rebuilding/evaluation/transition/development theory.

He could still surprise me.

He could sign Doan, which would raise us from a 11-15th place team to a 6-10th place team.

He could also propose the following trade to Anaheim:

To Anaheim
Eller
Bourque
Beaulieu
2012 1st rounder

To Montreal:
Bobby Ryan

Ultimately, this roster is not competing for a playoff spot barring a miracle. However, if we mortgage the future, we can compete for a playoff spot this year. I fully agree with that statement.
Failed to sign?lol.an you have what kind of credibility? I m surprised you don't have a job in the nhl as a gm.there are way too many trolls on here lately.

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07-27-2012, 12:09 PM
  #193
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If u wanna see your team finish last go cheer for the Leafs
DA makes a thoughtful post. And you post this as the first response. Thanks for contributing to a complex discussion with good arguments to be made for or against.

Quote:
Originally Posted by CP31 View Post
Everyone seems to forget we were at the top in man games lost last year, and especially with a healthy Markov, we are a much better team than last year.
I don't put Marky in my lineups. He is not on the roster for me until he plays the first 20 games and plays well.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jigger77 View Post
If you don't play to win the game, might as well not show up.
I agree with DA, and like him, and all of us who believe we should rebuild one more year, I have NEVER suggested that the Habs play to lose. Ever.

You add nothing to the discussion with this statement. Nothing.

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07-27-2012, 12:24 PM
  #194
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
If this current roster is in 6th or 7th place without any anomalies taking place then I will of course need to think about how I was so wrong.

An anomaly would be if someone like Chara would miss the season due to a concussion. That would raise the position of the other 4 teams in the division. Strange things happen, and such strange things could carry us to a 6th place finish even if you agree with my analysis.

Another anomaly would be if Bergevin mortgages the future, like the Bobby Ryan trade I invented above.

I also think we're a bubble team if we have a "no injury year" like in 2007-08.

However, if we make 6th place or approximately that in a typical injury year and without any blockbuster trades that mortgage the future, then that will show that my analysis is severely flawed. I think that's clear at this point.

I've been wrong before. For example, last summer I thought Jeff Carter and James Wisniewski would greatly improve the Blue Jackets roster.
Why do you count the potential anomalities for the other teams (like your concussed Chara example) yet fail to think about the anomalities we've experienced last year (Markov out ++) ? To use your word. Anomality.

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07-27-2012, 12:27 PM
  #195
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
If you're into the hollow instant gratification of competing for 8th place, then that's your thing and so be it. However, some of us don't care for mediocrity. We want to see championships. We want to see a Stanley Cup in Montreal, and we have a sufficiently long attention span that we're willing to wait longer than 5 minutes. If it takes a season of development then so be it, that's much better than a decade of bubble teams.
So, what you're saying is that you want them to go from lottery team one year, to cup winner the next? There's never any room for anything in the middle?

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07-27-2012, 12:29 PM
  #196
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Originally Posted by FF de Mars View Post
Why do you count the potential anomalities for the other teams (like your concussed Chara example) yet fail to think about the anomalities we've experienced last year (Markov out ++) ? To use your word. Anomality.
I've discussed this several times in this thread, but I understand if you don't want to read the whole thing.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
I had an argument on this thread last year.

I said Markov+Gorges wouldn't replace Hamrlik+Wisniewski. I was right. The others were wrong.

There are new injuries every single year. Every single offseason habs fans say "next year when we have no injuries". When are some of you going to learn? There will be new injuries every year.

2011-2012
Markov, Gionta, Gomez, Moen, Eller.

2010-2011
Cammalleri, Pacioretty, Markov, Gorges.

2009-2010
Markov, Cammalleri, Kostitsyn, Oh burned.

2008-2009
Schneider, Tanguay, Latendresse, Lang, Higgins, Koivu, Komisarek... worst year for injuries that I can recall.

2007-08
The magical no injuries year we hear about on HFBoards every summer. Habs finished 1st in the conference and were a bona fide stanley cup contender.

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07-27-2012, 12:37 PM
  #197
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So, what you're saying is that you want them to go from lottery team one year, to cup winner the next? There's never any room for anything in the middle?
My proposed strategy predicts a rapid transition from lottery team to cup contender. The amount of time spent in between depends on the development curve of our youth and Bergevin's batting average on the UFA market.

Rapid transitions have happened. New Jersey went from basement team to Stanley cup finalist in one season. Part of that was the usefullness of Adam Larsson and the signing of UFA Ilya Kovalchuk. Carolina went from basement in 2004 to cup winner in 2006, in which Andrew Ladd helped.

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07-27-2012, 12:39 PM
  #198
Dont Poke Subban
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Oh my ******* god! another "tanking" thread!

for the gazillionth time, its never going to happen! if you're an nhl player, you want to compete, win, make the playoffs and go for the ultimate prize. If you're the management, you want to put a winning team possible out there. besides, its all about the paying fans. you dont wanna waste their money.

imo, you're not a real fan if you want to see your team lose and waste another year just so the team could end up with a better pick. hey, its all about development. maybe try focusing on that.

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07-27-2012, 12:40 PM
  #199
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I don't see Perry even reaching free agency.
If he does we have a nice bargaining chip with his former team mate Prust

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07-27-2012, 12:40 PM
  #200
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I've read it. But it doesn't make sense. Every team looses players through injuries, but when star players go down, it's hard to replace that. Markov is a better point producer than Chara. How is it not an anomality that last year we lost our best player ? It would be an anomality for Boston too.

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