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The case for a 1-year surgical tank for the Habs

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Old
07-27-2012, 01:49 PM
  #226
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Originally Posted by Paul Dipietro View Post
I'd agree if I thought it was a matter of probability and we had a string of bad luck.

But I don't. The Habs should seriously consult a voodoo priest
Fair enough. I do believe it's probabilities. But maybe we should hire nahual or a djinn in our staff.

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07-27-2012, 02:00 PM
  #227
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
No, it's a rhetorical question.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rhetorical_question
- lol i know what you did there. i just want you to get to your point. its still stupid.

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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
If you're satisfied with competing for 8th place then you have the mentality of a loser.
-who says i want to compete for 8th place? read my post carefully. as crazy as this may sound, i want the team to go for the cup even with the kind of team that we have. i want to win and not go purposely for high draft pick. how is that a loser mentality?


Quote:
Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
There's no denying Bergevin's lack of activity on the trade market.

If the team wanted Semin we would have had Semin. Ergo, the team didn't want a more powerful offense. It didn't want additional 20-30 goals. Why not?
-how can you prove MB didnt even try to sign him? knowing mtl, we dont always attract players that easy. besides, even for one year, the guy isnt even worth 7million. happy the habs didnt sign him for that contract.[/QUOTE]

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07-27-2012, 02:09 PM
  #228
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Originally Posted by jagielski41 View Post
-who says i want to compete for 8th place? read my post carefully. as crazy as this may sound, i want the team to go for the cup even with the kind of team that we have. i want to win and not go purposely for high draft pick. how is that a loser mentality?
see post #186 on page 8.

Obviously I want this team to give 100%. If they surprise me and are in 6-8th place at the all-star break then I'll be thrilled and I'll write a long post on this forum entitled "why I was wrong about the tank". However, I consider that extremely unlikely.

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Originally Posted by jagielski41 View Post
-how can you prove MB didnt even try to sign him? knowing mtl, we dont always attract players that easy. besides, even for one year, the guy isnt even worth 7million. happy the habs didnt sign him for that contract.
MB said he didn't want Semin.

Since Semin got such a crappy contract I am satisfied assuming that any team that wanted Semin could have had Semin.

7 million for 1 year is harmless. What do you think are the odds he would have been more useful than Gomez? 80%?

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07-27-2012, 02:09 PM
  #229
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
I'm not asking anybody to lose. I hope this team gives 100% throughout the season.
but, but, but..you're secretly hoping for the team to lose. please just admit it, lol.

amiright?

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07-27-2012, 02:12 PM
  #230
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Originally Posted by jagielski41 View Post
but, but, but..you're secretly hoping for the team to lose. please just admit it, lol.

amiright?
If we get a cinderella run like in 2009-10 I'll enjoy it.
If we have a rebuilding year and draft McKinnon, I'll enjoy that. Just as you're happy about Galchenyuk.

I'm ok as long as Bergevin doesn't mortgage the future on dumb trades or dumb UFA signings that would help us win now. As I said to another poster, thus far Bergevin gets an A+ for me.

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07-27-2012, 02:12 PM
  #231
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Originally Posted by jagielski41 View Post
but, but, but..you're secretly hoping for the team to lose. please just admit it, lol.

amiright?
Considering next year's draft class, it would be stupid not to (regardless of where you stand on the "tank" debate)

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07-27-2012, 02:23 PM
  #232
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
see post #186 on page 8.

Obviously I want this team to give 100%. If they surprise me and are in 6-8th place at the all-star break then I'll be thrilled and I'll write a long post on this forum entitled "why I was wrong about the tank". However, I consider that extremely unlikely.
it wasnt my post..but anyway im looking forward for your "why I was wrong about the tank" thread.


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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
MB said he didn't want Semin.

Since Semin got such a crappy contract I am satisfied assuming that any team that wanted Semin could have had Semin.

7 million for 1 year is harmless. What do you think are the odds he would have been more useful than Gomez? 80%?
-you're right. i remember that interview on tsn. but MB prolly said he didnt want semin because of the asking price. but if the price was around 4-4.5 mil, i think MB wouldve signed him.

he wouldve been more useful than gomez for sure. but the management's mentality is not to gamble and spend another 7 million on a guy you dont really know what to expect.

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07-27-2012, 02:27 PM
  #233
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
I had an argument on this thread last year.

I said Markov+Gorges wouldn't replace Hamrlik+Wisniewski. I was right. The others were wrong.

There are new injuries every single year. Every single offseason habs fans say "next year when we have no injuries". When are some of you going to learn? There will be new injuries every year.

2011-2012
Markov, Gionta, Gomez, Moen, Eller.

2010-2011
Cammalleri, Pacioretty, Markov, Gorges.

2009-2010
Markov, Cammalleri, Kostitsyn, Oh burned.

2008-2009
Schneider, Tanguay, Latendresse, Lang, Higgins, Koivu, Komisarek... worst year for injuries that I can recall.

2007-08
The magical no injuries year we hear about on HFBoards every summer. Habs finished 1st in the conference and were a bona fide stanley cup contender.
So if we tank, our injury problem will go away.

But that's not realistic, is it? The proper response should be.............Since we will have injuries every season, we should tank every season.

Bravo. I am giving you credit for creating one of the best T threads of all time. What is the over/under on how many pages you will generate with this thread?

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07-27-2012, 03:21 PM
  #234
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Originally Posted by SouthernHab View Post
So if we tank, our injury problem will go away.

But that's not realistic, is it? The proper response should be.............Since we will have injuries every season, we should tank every season.

Bravo. I am giving you credit for creating one of the best T threads of all time. What is the over/under on how many pages you will generate with this thread?
In case anybody's confused by this:

The Habs definitely need to think about what their injury issue is. Once they figure that out they can contend. Maybe they need an enforcer, better training, or better equipment. I don't know.

With that said, I think it's wise to use a 2-injury standard when projecting the team. Try and think about how good the roster is if any 2 of the top 10 players are injured. Could be Subban and Emelin. Could be Cole and Price. Could be Gorges and Plekanec. Repeat the trial if a few times. That will give you a good predictor about final eastern conference standing.

Once you have a lot of good players you can brush off injuries more easily. The Bruins won the cup without Marc Savard and without Nathan Horton, because they had a lot of good players.

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07-27-2012, 03:47 PM
  #235
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
The Bruins won the cup without Marc Savard and without Nathan Horton, because they had a lot of good players.
Thats your best example? Horton missed two games the season the Bruins won the cup and played in 21 of the 25 playoff games.

The Bruins cup season was an anomaly, just like last years' Habs team.

Oh and one thing you completely ignore is coaching. Habs were competitive when they trusted and played Martin's system (wether you like the style of hockey or not). As soon as the players and our dear former GM lost faith in Martin the team stopped competing. Once Martin got fired chaos took over, Cunneyworth blew it and the team didn't play well at all. You can't simply look at rosters and determine wether they are playoff bound or not just looking at the players. How they fit together as a team and how they are coached is extremely important.

That said Cunneyworth was a rookie coach put in a terrible situation. No disrespect to the guy but he had no chance and couldn't rise to the challenge. Even if Therrien is average or bad it can't be worse, the players are going to try and impress the new coach and general manager. They are also starting anew while last year they started the season with a slump and had to live with it the rest of the year.

Its possible the Habs finish in the bottom five, just like its possible they finish with 100pts and blow everyone's mind. Depends how they can play as a team.

Look at the bright side :

1. We have a star goaltender (he could end up a Vezina candidate and at worse ''just'' a top10 goalie.)
2. We have two good/great defensemen in Subban&Markov, two guys that can be legitimate no1 or at worse no2 on many teams.
3. We had two 30+goal scorers that could repeat.
4. We don't have a spectacular no1 center but we have good depth at the position with 3 solid guys.
5. We added grit and character to the bottom6 which should fit the more aggressive character Therrien is going to give to this team.
6. We have a couple of players that used to be good and could bounce back. If only one of these can do it then the team gets much better. Its not completely out of question that Bourque could score 20+ goals or Kaberle play like a decent top4 defensemen. So many people would have traded Kovalev for a 7th round pick the off-season before he led us to first place in the east...

I could find more, just think about it and we don't have that bad of a team.


Last edited by FlyingKostitsyn: 07-27-2012 at 04:04 PM.
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Old
07-27-2012, 04:10 PM
  #236
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I think there will be a much bigger impact from having a complete overhaul of the front office. There is alot more postive energy coming from them. I think that will rub off on to the players. What we saw last year, you won't see this year.

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Old
07-27-2012, 04:23 PM
  #237
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Originally Posted by FlyingKostitsyn View Post
Thats your best example? Horton missed two games the season the Bruins won the cup and played in 21 of the 25 playoff games.

The Bruins cup season was an anomaly, just like last years' Habs team.

Oh and one thing you completely ignore is coaching. Habs were competitive when they trusted and played Martin's system (wether you like the style of hockey or not). As soon as the players and our dear former GM lost faith in Martin the team stopped competing. Once Martin got fired chaos took over, Cunneyworth blew it and the team didn't play well at all. You can't simply look at rosters and determine wether they are playoff bound or not just looking at the players. How they fit together as a team and how they are coached is extremely important.

That said Cunneyworth was a rookie coach put in a terrible situation. No disrespect to the guy but he had no chance and couldn't rise to the challenge. Even if Therrien is average or bad it can't be worse, the players are going to try and impress the new coach and general manager. They are also starting anew while last year they started the season with a slump and had to live with it the rest of the year.

Its possible the Habs finish in the bottom five, just like its possible they finish with 100pts and blow everyone's mind. Depends how they can play as a team.

Look at the bright side :

1. We have a star goaltender (he could end up a Vezina candidate and at worse ''just'' a top10 goalie.)
2. We have two good/great defensemen in Subban&Markov, two guys that can be legitimate no1 or at worse no2 on many teams.
3. We had two 30+goal scorers that could repeat.
4. We don't have a spectacular no1 center but we have good depth at the position with 3 solid guys.
5. We added grit and character to the bottom6 which should fit the more aggressive character Therrien is going to give to this team.
6. We have a couple of players that used to be good and could bounce back. If only one of these can do it then the team gets much better. Its not completely out of question that Bourque could score 20+ goals or Kaberle play like a decent top4 defensemen. So many people would have traded Kovalev for a 7th round pick the off-season before he led us to first place in the east...

I could find more, just think about it and we don't have that bad of a team.
OK, the example of Boston is weak. You are correct.

Will Michel Therrien be a better coach than Jacques Martin? I don't know. It's a variable. I do think Martin was a great coach who made the best out of a weak team. It is doubtful that any given coach will be better than Martin.

A lot of things went wrong last year and a lot of things went right. We finished 15th and we were 12th at the time of the coaching change.

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07-27-2012, 04:26 PM
  #238
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What is the OP's argument for? If every one of your points are true, we would be tanking regardless of how much we try to win.

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07-27-2012, 04:33 PM
  #239
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What is the OP's argument for? If every one of your points are true, we would be tanking regardless of how much we try to win.
I think a lot of people made a post like yours, so there's a point I clearly failed to communicate.

The answer is an absolute yes. I hold that this team is weak, and that even if they try hard and have relatively few injuries I expect them to fall in the range of 11th-15th place. There is no need to deliberately lose or to give more starts to the backup goalie etc.

Up to this point, I give Bergevin an A+. He has not made any mortgage the future trades, and he has not signed any UFA quick fixes.

The next step, when we're in ~13th place at the deadline, is to sell. Bergevin should spend the season getting a feel of the market to get good deals.

I think Leblanc/Gallagher should be sheltered in Hamilton, and Gomez/Bourque/Kaberle should be given privileged minutes to maximize their trade value.

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Old
07-27-2012, 04:37 PM
  #240
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Originally Posted by PricePkPatch View Post
Seems the me the man arguing for us to lose before we even started to be the true loser.

Look, you didn't convinced us. Can you drop the personal attacks?!
He convinced me, don't speak for everyone.

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07-27-2012, 04:39 PM
  #241
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
I think a lot of people made a post like yours, so there's a point I clearly failed to communicate.

The answer is an absolute yes. I hold that this team is weak, and that even if they try hard and have relatively few injuries I expect them to fall in the range of 11th-15th place. There is no need to deliberately lose or to give more starts to the backup goalie etc.

Up to this point, I give Bergevin an A+. He has not made any mortgage the future trades, and he has not signed any UFA quick fixes.
And this is the point and one I think has been made before. This is not a 'one year surgical tank' as anyone other than you understands it. It is a GM making reasonable moves to improve the team where he can, avoiding panic moves that are unlikely to work and planning for the medium term rather than mortgaging the future in search of instant success.

A 'one year surgical tank' cannot imply anything other than a deliberate attempt to lose before the season has even started. Which would be ludicrous enough so that it, notwithstanding the misleading thread title, you're not advocating that at all.

FWIW I think your analysis is unnecessarily pessimistic. The gap between 8th and 15th is not massive. The difference between the teams is often measured in terms of organisation and motivation rather than talent.

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Old
07-27-2012, 05:01 PM
  #242
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
I think a lot of people made a post like yours, so there's a point I clearly failed to communicate.

The answer is an absolute yes. I hold that this team is weak, and that even if they try hard and have relatively few injuries I expect them to fall in the range of 11th-15th place. There is no need to deliberately lose or to give more starts to the backup goalie etc.

Up to this point, I give Bergevin an A+. He has not made any mortgage the future trades, and he has not signed any UFA quick fixes.

The next step, when we're in ~13th place at the deadline, is to sell. Bergevin should spend the season getting a feel of the market to get good deals.

I think Leblanc/Gallagher should be sheltered in Hamilton, and Gomez/Bourque/Kaberle should be given privileged minutes to maximize their trade value.
You are going to look awfully foolish when that prediction turns out to be false. I will bet you a one month absence from this board that this team makes the playoffs. If they make it you disappear for a month and if they finish 11th or lower I disappear for a month.

Surely with all of your absolute wisdom you picked Ottawa to make the playoffs last season

The funny part is you are giving Bergevin an A+ but I am positive he would find your proposal of a "surgical tank" laughable. You need to remove yourself from the fantasy realm and realize that Bergevin and co. were brought in by the Molsons to win and to start doing so as immediately as possible. You and your fantasies aren't accountable at the end of the day.....Bergevin is.

Bergevin is clearly doing the best he can to build a winner without mortgaging the future. He clearly described the type of players that he wants to acquire (no Semin) in his initial press conference and has held true to his word. Do you really think that he signed Prust, Armstrong and Bouillon because it would help us tank????? Did he show interest in both Jagr and Doan because he was hoping to bottom out this season. Come on, deal with the facts and not your fantastical little world of tanking and unicorns hopping rainbows.

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07-27-2012, 05:17 PM
  #243
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He convinced me, don't speak for everyone.
And we are suppose to be surprised ?

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07-27-2012, 05:34 PM
  #244
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The Habs aren't an elite team but IMO they're too good to be desperately scrambling for the last playoff spot in the last week. By the time their prospects mature in a few years they'll be taken seriously. Since some of the 30 NHLteams are weaker than the Habs, it isn't a lock for them to be in the lottery group. The tankards on this site can't get it through their bony crania that the draftees they gain for players like Markov and Plekanec probably won't be as good as the veterans they replace. Gill and AKost were replaced by Nashville second rounders who may not be as good in the long run. Just look at previous Hab second rounders, such as Ben What's his name, Urquhart, Lapierre, etc. Of the second rounders in in this so-called A+ draft, Collberg has a good chance of becoming a regular, Thrower a smaller chance. Tanking is not a sound strategy.

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07-27-2012, 05:56 PM
  #245
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Tank or not! I will leave it up to the habs to make my decision! If theres a chance at the playoffs i cheer for the habs, if the season becomes a rightoff, i ll be cheering for them to finish last!

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07-27-2012, 06:07 PM
  #246
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Tank or not! I will leave it up to the habs to make my decision! If theres a chance at the playoffs i cheer for the habs, if the season becomes a rightoff, i ll be cheering for them to finish last!
I think most of us would agree with that. It doesn't change the fact that tanking is a myth.

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07-27-2012, 07:54 PM
  #247
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
If your dream is an 8th place finish then you are not a fan. FULL STOP.
No where am I stating I want to finish in 8th. You, on the other hand, want us to lose. So, ****** try, leafs fan.

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07-27-2012, 09:14 PM
  #248
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Originally Posted by Estimated_Prophet View Post
Surely with all of your absolute wisdom you picked Ottawa to make the playoffs last season
Ottawa achieved nothing this season.

They made it into 8th and were wiped out in the 1st round.

But seriously man... do you actually think Ottawa achieved anything this year? An "A for effort" perhaps ??

Quote:
Originally Posted by Estimated_Prophet View Post
Do you really think that he signed Prust, Armstrong and Bouillon because it would help us tank?????
No.

Prust is a long-term signing, he got a 4-year contract. He will help us in the playoffs in future seasons and help make sure our youth don't get pushed around.

Armstrong is a reclamation project. 1 year 1 million dollars. If he fails then there's no loss. If he works out then we are winners and we have first dibs on keeping him.

Bouillon is a depth signing. Having Bouillon means we don't need to start trading away draft picks once the inevitable multiple injuries happen on defense.


Last edited by DAChampion: 07-27-2012 at 09:26 PM.
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07-27-2012, 11:35 PM
  #249
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The real disagreement seems to be how the habs project this year. Some look at the lineup on paper and think 11-15, therefore if that's the case come trade deadline you sell. Some people think barring injuries we're good enough to contend for a playoff spot and make a run once were in.

I am of the opinion of the former. I think the hole on the 2nd line and even more so the lack of a solid top 4 D have us on the outside looking in. However, just like every year some teams surprise and thats why they play the games. I hope I'm wrong, but much like DaChampion if i had to make a prediction I dont think this lineup is good enough.


Last edited by rdubb: 07-27-2012 at 11:52 PM.
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07-27-2012, 11:42 PM
  #250
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On the gut level, do you know what I think of the bleating for a "one-year surgical tank"? It's an infant bawling because its diaper is wet and cold and full of unpleasant semisolids. Grow up!

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