You have to figure a young star in a top pro league like the SEL beats out a late first rounder who hasn't even played in college yet.
A late first has only about a 30-35% chance of cracking the NHL even as a bottom-feeder. Fast has a better shot of making it, as well as a better shot of being an impact player.
heights may be outdated (or 100% accurate. not sure which source you used or which was updated more recently), but if they are outdated-- 3 inches is a big diff on skjei's odds of breaking the roster in a few years
via NHL.com's final draft report
Skjei: 6' 3" | 200lbs
via eliteprospects and wikipedia(i know--not a real source )
Fasth: 6' 0" | 176 lbs
i voted fast since skjei hasn't really proven himself against men. certainly not to the extent of fast, and honestly fast currently has a better level of talent (from the little i have seen each)
can't overlook the size + skating ability of skjei. definitely ups his chances of being able to break the roster (albeit still not proven as high as fasth)
Last edited by mooskating: 07-28-2012 at 09:41 PM.
I love Fast but if recent Rangers scouting has taught us anything, it's to trust their ability to draft/find/develop defensive prospects. Skjei sounds like he's going to be real steady and a big minute eater. That said, I'm excited for both kids, so it's 5a and 5b.
For me Thomas, Fasth and Skjei could really go in any order.
The lack of love for St. Croix is really disturbing. He's the best player on the best team in the best junior league in the world. NewOil, who watches all his games, says that he's a terrific prospect and very likely will be in the NHL as a top-6 forward.
The lack of love for St. Croix is really disturbing. He's the best player on the best team in the best junior league in the world. NewOil, who watches all his games, says that he's a terrific prospect and very likely will be in the NHL as a top-6 forward.
The opinion of one poster does not equate to a sure thing. St. Croix put up some really nice numbers in the regular season, but his scoring seemed to drop off in the playoffs when things got more physical. It's not an insult to have Fast, who's playing in the SEL, and Skjei, who's a first round pick, ahead of St. Croix. Junior numbers are just junior numbers. They're not the end all, be all of judging a prospect. All of Fast, Thomas, and Skjei likely have higher ceilings than St. Croix.
The opinion of one poster does not equate to a sure thing. St. Croix put up some really nice numbers in the regular season, but his scoring seemed to drop off in the playoffs when things got more physical. It's not an insult to have Fast, who's playing in the SEL, and Skjei, who's a first round pick, ahead of St. Croix. Junior numbers are just junior numbers. They're not the end all, be all of judging a prospect. All of Fast, Thomas, and Skjei likely have higher ceilings than St. Croix.
All of Fast, Thomas, and Skjei likely have higher ceilings than St. Croix.
I think they all have a lower ceiling. St. Croix is the most talented offensive player of them all, and if one of these 4 becomes a first liner, I would bet that it will be St. Croix. I am not saying he will be a first liner, but he has the highest probability.
(Just to be clear so that people don't go around saying I predicted that he'll be a first liner: if four players have, say, a 20%, 15%, 10% and 5% chance of becoming a first liner, all of them are unlikely to do it, but the one who has a 20% chance has the best odds).
I think they all have a lower ceiling. St. Croix is the most talented offensive player of them all, and if one of these 4 becomes a first liner, I would bet that it will be St. Croix. I am not saying he will be a first liner, but he has the highest probability.
(Just to be clear so that people don't go around saying I predicted that he'll be a first liner: if four players have, say, a 20%, 15%, 10% and 5% chance of becoming a first liner, all of them are unlikely to do it, but the one who has a 20% chance has the best odds).
Disagree. I think Fast definitely has a better chance to be a first line winger than St. Croix has a chance to be first line center.
Fasth, however one thing that shouldn't be put into question when analyzing Skjei is his chances of making the show. He's a big, mobile and cerebral defenseman; as much of a sure bet player as you're gonna get in some shape or form.
Fasth, however one thing that shouldn't be put into question when analyzing Skjei is his chances of making the show. He's a big, mobile and cerebral defenseman; as much of a sure bet player as you're gonna get in some shape or form.
If he were sure-fire, he would have gone in thre top-3 or at least top-5.
If he were sure-fire, he would have gone in thre top-3 or at least top-5.
That's false. Skjei, aside from his skating, doesn't have the game breaking ability of Yakupov or the other top prospects. But he has the qualities that make an NHL player, similar to our 1st pick from 2011, JT Miller.
You used stats to project Skjei's chances of being an NHLer. All I said was that he will very likely be an NHLer, how effective of one is unclear. Miller could make the team as early as Game 1 of this season, but I doubt he's risen in too many rankings because it remains to be seen if he will be a top 6 player.
The lack of love for St. Croix is really disturbing. He's the best player on the best team in the best junior league in the world. NewOil, who watches all his games, says that he's a terrific prospect and very likely will be in the NHL as a top-6 forward.
He doesn't really have the size and disappeared for long stretches in post season and Memorial Cup. He has his work cut out for him to be a NHL regular, maybe on Columbus.
I think they all have a lower ceiling. St. Croix is the most talented offensive player of them all, and if one of these 4 becomes a first liner, I would bet that it will be St. Croix. I am not saying he will be a first liner, but he has the highest probability.
(Just to be clear so that people don't go around saying I predicted that he'll be a first liner: if four players have, say, a 20%, 15%, 10% and 5% chance of becoming a first liner, all of them are unlikely to do it, but the one who has a 20% chance has the best odds).
By what possible metric are you determining that St. Croix has the best shot at being a first liner? Scouting reports give Fast and Thomas just as much or more raw talent than St. Croix. Skjei's physical talents make him a much surer shot at being a quality NHLer than St. Croix.
All St. Croix has going for him against the others at this point are some nice junior numbers and one very enthusiastic HFboards poster. You put way too much weight on junior scoring rates. He didn't even carry them over into the playoffs. I like him a lot, but let's be realistic here. Taken on their own, a bunch of points in juniors don't mean much. He's got a lot of skill, but it's completely up in the air how well his game translates to the professional levels.
Quote:
Originally Posted by broadwayblue
Is that so...or do you mean higher floors?
Fast and Thomas have higher ceilings for sure. It's debatable whether Skjei has a higher absolute ceiling, but he certainly has a much higher floor.
Yeah I've been very unimpressed when I've watched St. Croix.
Agreed. I hate labels but aspects of his game just scream "perimeter player".
I don't have him in my top 10.
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