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Justin Schultz joins the Oilers Part II

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07-28-2012, 02:03 AM
  #451
Bryanbryoil
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Justin Schultz was a combined +25 in the last 2 years including a team leading +11 last season. Of his 40 career goals 21 were on the PP. He had a 14.4% shooting % over his career as well and was 3rd on his team last year as a defenseman despite leading the team in shots on goal and goals. He only took 22 penalties in his 121 career games as well which IMO shows that he was pretty solid defensively to not have to take many penalties. Schultz was the top defensive scorer in Divison 1 hockey and the 23rd overall leading scorer.

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07-28-2012, 05:12 AM
  #452
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Thanks for the info BBO. Really helpful for those of us not too familiar with this guy. I'm going to be cautiously optimistic about him but the fact that every team wanted him and thinks he can be a top 4 defenceman NOW has to mean something.

Quick question though and this goes out for all you stat junkies, not calling you out specifically Bryan but why include penalty minutes? Can't you just spin that as "oh he takes so few penalties, he's really disciplined!" or "oh he takes lots of penalties, he really sticks up for his teammates!". Legit question as I'm slightly ignorant when it comes to this stuff

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07-28-2012, 06:31 AM
  #453
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Originally Posted by zaray_656 View Post
Thanks for the info BBO. Really helpful for those of us not too familiar with this guy. I'm going to be cautiously optimistic about him but the fact that every team wanted him and thinks he can be a top 4 defenceman NOW has to mean something.

Quick question though and this goes out for all you stat junkies, not calling you out specifically Bryan but why include penalty minutes? Can't you just spin that as "oh he takes so few penalties, he's really disciplined!" or "oh he takes lots of penalties, he really sticks up for his teammates!". Legit question as I'm slightly ignorant when it comes to this stuff
In US college hockey it is pretty clear that penalty numbers are not going to reflect highly aggressive stuff such as fighting or physical retaliation since that is not really part of the college game.

So the numbers BBO quoted could be viewed as a measure of how seldom Schultz had to resort to something illegal to compensate for not being in a position to properly defend the play. But I am sure that BBO will also tell you that there is nothing exact in that data and that you can only guess based on the data alone.

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07-28-2012, 03:15 PM
  #454
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Originally Posted by zaray_656 View Post
Thanks for the info BBO. Really helpful for those of us not too familiar with this guy. I'm going to be cautiously optimistic about him but the fact that every team wanted him and thinks he can be a top 4 defenceman NOW has to mean something.

Quick question though and this goes out for all you stat junkies, not calling you out specifically Bryan but why include penalty minutes? Can't you just spin that as "oh he takes so few penalties, he's really disciplined!" or "oh he takes lots of penalties, he really sticks up for his teammates!". Legit question as I'm slightly ignorant when it comes to this stuff
Fourier does a good job of explaining my rationale below, I will also add to his take.

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In US college hockey it is pretty clear that penalty numbers are not going to reflect highly aggressive stuff such as fighting or physical retaliation since that is not really part of the college game.

So the numbers BBO quoted could be viewed as a measure of how seldom Schultz had to resort to something illegal to compensate for not being in a position to properly defend the play. But I am sure that BBO will also tell you that there is nothing exact in that data and that you can only guess based on the data alone.
The bolded is indeed the case, from what I have seen of him he is more of a Nick Schultz type of a D than a Theo Peckham. Very good positioning and stick work, smart passes in his own zone, etc. A very cerebral player instead of a hulking physical specimen like Peckham or Sutton who uses their large size to their benefit but also take more penalties due to a lack of skating and sometimes discipline.

Schultz at least this last season was on their #1 PK unit as well so it's not as if he wasn't put in tough situations, he was their all around guy used in all key situations. Need a goal? Send out Schultz. Need a stop? Send out Schultz. When you play huge minutes and minimize the amount of penalties that you take it can point to a player being sound defensively. From what I've seen of him that is exactly my take on this player.

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07-28-2012, 07:03 PM
  #455
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This is a long shot but is there anywhere I can watch some of his games? I hate not being able to give an opinion on the kid...outside of "his stats look good and a lot of GM's went hard after him because apparently he's NHL ready".

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07-28-2012, 09:11 PM
  #456
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This is a long shot but is there anywhere I can watch some of his games? I hate not being able to give an opinion on the kid...outside of "his stats look good and a lot of GM's went hard after him because apparently he's NHL ready".
Likewise. Would like to see him play a few full games to see what he is like.

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07-28-2012, 09:22 PM
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He was named "Best Defensive Player of the Year".

It's a weird award. It looks like the majority of winners are puck-moving defenseman, but there's also some defensive defenseman and even forwards who have won the award too.
Yes he won best defensive player of the year award twice, in back to back seasons, apparently only the third player in league history to do so. The award by the way I believe Krueger said is voted on by the leagues coaches.

He was also a finalist for the Hobey Baker two years running.

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07-28-2012, 09:51 PM
  #458
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wheatking View Post
This is a long shot but is there anywhere I can watch some of his games? I hate not being able to give an opinion on the kid...outside of "his stats look good and a lot of GM's went hard after him because apparently he's NHL ready".
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Originally Posted by pocketful View Post
Likewise. Would like to see him play a few full games to see what he is like.
I've seen him play on Fox College Sports here in the US, maybe if some of you have Satellite TV you might get that channel? I may have seen him on the Big 10 channel as well.

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07-28-2012, 10:02 PM
  #459
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I know it's been mentioned before but I'm very curious to see how his shot translates to the NHL. Schultz look like he's got good hands and an accurate wrister so I can see him scoring off the rush or sneaking in from the point but if they put him on the point on the PP I'm wondering if he'll score from there. I've seen college highlights where he's done it but his shot is kind of a floater and I don't see it beating many NHL goalies.

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07-28-2012, 10:08 PM
  #460
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Originally Posted by Asher View Post
I know it's been mentioned before but I'm very curious to see how his shot translates to the NHL. Schultz look like he's got good hands and an accurate wrister so I can see him scoring off the rush or sneaking in from the point but if they put him on the point on the PP I'm wondering if he'll score from there. I've seen college highlights where he's done it but his shot is kind of a floater and I don't see it beating many NHL goalies.
He's going to have to use a diverse variety of shots at the NHL level and IMO he is game for it. I could see him potting 10 goals or so in his rookie year, maybe more depending on how much of a green light he is given offensively.

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07-29-2012, 04:23 AM
  #461
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Originally Posted by Bryanbryoil View Post
He's going to have to use a diverse variety of shots at the NHL level and IMO he is game for it. I could see him potting 10 goals or so in his rookie year, maybe more depending on how much of a green light he is given offensively.
I think Krueger is going to give him a lot of freedom to play his type of game offensively. The same can be said for all the kids.

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07-29-2012, 04:57 AM
  #462
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Does defensive player awards in Schultz's case imply a high degree of competence in his own end or were they akin to Mike Green's nomination for Norris?

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07-29-2012, 12:28 PM
  #463
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Does defensive player awards in Schultz's case imply a high degree of competence in his own end or were they akin to Mike Green's nomination for Norris?
Even if they are akin to Mike Green. Is that necessarily a bad thing? Obviously Schultz has miles and miles to go before being considered anywhere near Green was, but Mike Green at his best was one of the leagues most elite talents. 73 points in 68 games with 31 goals to go along with it and +24. Followed that up with 76 points in 75 games and +39. I would be ecstatic if the Schultz could be a player like that.

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07-29-2012, 02:12 PM
  #464
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Let's not go overboard - defensemen have the steepest learning curve and are hard to project. It's almost a given that Schultz can be a roster D-man on a weak NHL roster this year. Some say he could be a top-4 player, *already*, but given the strange and unpredictable developmental curves that defensemen follow - I think all bets are off.

He could be MA Bergeron or he could be a Tobias Enstrom. A nice piece to have in the bottom half of your d-pairings, but lordy if you are depending on anything more - we have got a problem here.

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07-29-2012, 03:05 PM
  #465
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Originally Posted by oilsands View Post
Let's not go overboard - defensemen have the steepest learning curve and are hard to project. It's almost a given that Schultz can be a roster D-man on a weak NHL roster this year. Some say he could be a top-4 player, *already*, but given the strange and unpredictable developmental curves that defensemen follow - I think all bets are off.

He could be MA Bergeron or he could be a Tobias Enstrom. A nice piece to have in the bottom half of your d-pairings, but lordy if you are depending on anything more - we have got a problem here.
MA Bergeron? Have you ever seen this kid play? Never mind, based on what you just said that's a rhetorical question and I already know the answer. The kid has size, is good defensively, and very good offensively. Burke wanted him instead of Gardiner and Gardiner is looking like a solid young D, it's pretty common knowledge that Schultz' upside is > Gardiner's and some on here were contemplating a Gardiner + #5 swap for 1st overall.

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07-29-2012, 03:12 PM
  #466
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Originally Posted by oilsands View Post
Let's not go overboard - defensemen have the steepest learning curve and are hard to project. It's almost a given that Schultz can be a roster D-man on a weak NHL roster this year. Some say he could be a top-4 player, *already*, but given the strange and unpredictable developmental curves that defensemen follow - I think all bets are off.

He could be MA Bergeron or he could be a Tobias Enstrom. A nice piece to have in the bottom half of your d-pairings, but lordy if you are depending on anything more - we have got a problem here.
Do you have Schultz confused with someone else?

Bergeron and Enstrom are both 4'' shorter than Schultz. And even ignoring that, you're comparing a very highly touted 2nd rounder to an undrafted QMJHLer and a late blooming 8th round pick.

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07-29-2012, 03:47 PM
  #467
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The thing I find most impressive about his low PIM numbers is that everything I've read about him says he is an ultra competative guy on the ice during games and in practice. You would think that would more often than not result in high PIMs unless you are able to keep your composure and focus when things are tight. That, or he doesn't take many penalties because he always has the puck, which is also good (probably better actually).

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07-29-2012, 04:03 PM
  #468
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I know it's hard to find comparables but I was thinking a season like Cam Fowler had in his rookie year wouldn't be an unrealistic target for Schultz.

Fowler put up these numbers: 76 10 30 40 -25 playing 22 minutes per game in his rookie year. Other than the big minus number that's a pretty impressive rookie year for a dman.

I don't think it's out of the question that Schultz puts up similar numbers as he's 22 and Fowler was only 18. Fowler had some great offensive players to play with which obviously boosted up his numbers but I think Schultz could be in the 30-40 point range as well. He'll likely get plenty of prime PP time and playing with Eberle/Hall/RNH/Yakupov//Hemsky/Gagner should give him a pretty good kickstart to his career.

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07-29-2012, 06:34 PM
  #469
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dnicks17 View Post
Do you have Schultz confused with someone else?

Bergeron and Enstrom are both 4'' shorter than Schultz. And even ignoring that, you're comparing a very highly touted 2nd rounder to an undrafted QMJHLer and a late blooming 8th round pick.
Laleggia perhaps? I really like that kids upside if he can show enough strength to play a regular shift on D. He was the 3rd highest scoring D in Division I as a Freshman last year.

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The thing I find most impressive about his low PIM numbers is that everything I've read about him says he is an ultra competative guy on the ice during games and in practice. You would think that would more often than not result in high PIMs unless you are able to keep your composure and focus when things are tight. That, or he doesn't take many penalties because he always has the puck, which is also good (probably better actually).
Competitive yes, physical? Not so much. He doesn't give up on plays but I don't see him being even as physical as Petry was in his first stint here. That said his skating, stick, and size will go a long way to providing solid defense for us.

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I know it's hard to find comparables but I was thinking a season like Cam Fowler had in his rookie year wouldn't be an unrealistic target for Schultz.

Fowler put up these numbers: 76 10 30 40 -25 playing 22 minutes per game in his rookie year. Other than the big minus number that's a pretty impressive rookie year for a dman.

I don't think it's out of the question that Schultz puts up similar numbers as he's 22 and Fowler was only 18. Fowler had some great offensive players to play with which obviously boosted up his numbers but I think Schultz could be in the 30-40 point range as well. He'll likely get plenty of prime PP time and playing with Eberle/Hall/RNH/Yakupov//Hemsky/Gagner should give him a pretty good kickstart to his career.
I expect much better than -25 but 40 points isn't unrealistic depending on what role he is given to start the year.

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07-29-2012, 06:51 PM
  #470
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Man I'm excited to see this kid play this year, start the season already please.

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07-29-2012, 07:29 PM
  #471
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Originally Posted by NewOilersDynasty2012 View Post
Man I'm excited to see this kid play this year, start the season already please.
Having a healthy Whitney, Petry, and J. Schultz should really improve our transition game and as a direct result our secondary scoring.

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07-30-2012, 12:24 AM
  #472
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I know it's been mentioned before but I'm very curious to see how his shot translates to the NHL. Schultz look like he's got good hands and an accurate wrister so I can see him scoring off the rush or sneaking in from the point but if they put him on the point on the PP I'm wondering if he'll score from there. I've seen college highlights where he's done it but his shot is kind of a floater and I don't see it beating many NHL goalies.
His college coach made a comment that he has an uncanny talent or feel for releasing the puck at the right time from the point and getting it through to the net through traffic. I don't think he has a huge howitzer or anything but has a good wrister from the point and pretty quick release.

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07-30-2012, 02:01 AM
  #473
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Anyone think of a current NHL dman that's really good at wristing shots through from the point? I'm just trying to think of a possible comparison.

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07-30-2012, 05:53 AM
  #474
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Anyone think of a current NHL dman that's really good at wristing shots through from the point? I'm just trying to think of a possible comparison.
Not really just wrist shots, but Lidstrom was a master of getting the puck to where it had to be. Now Shultz is not Lidstrom so comparing the players makes no sense, but the point is that it is not just dmen with cannons that can be effective.

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07-30-2012, 08:28 AM
  #475
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Man I'm excited to see this kid play this year, start the season already please.
Yep..and after reading this thread, I'm almost more interested in seeing him than seeing Yakupov.

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