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Old
07-30-2012, 04:28 AM
  #76
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Originally Posted by Jussi Trollinen View Post
Presumably, our 3rd line is gonna be Tlusty//Welsh//LaRose. That's two 20 goal wingers, one of which hits like a tank and has the best work ethic on the team, and the other has just enough flash and dazzle in him to make SportsCentre once or twice a season. him.
I'm sorry, who hits like a truck? LaRose? Lol.

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07-30-2012, 04:51 AM
  #77
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I'm sorry, who hits like a truck? LaRose? Lol.
Yeah, like a truck. Just not like a very big one.

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07-30-2012, 10:53 AM
  #78
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Originally Posted by Sens1Canes2 View Post
I'm sorry, who hits like a truck? LaRose? Lol.


BRING IT!

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07-30-2012, 11:09 AM
  #79
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Originally Posted by TheBigKahuna View Post
Improved every year? Really? If last season was an improvement, he had no business in the NHL in the two previous seasons. Saying he's ahead of Faulk is a joke...and ends this discussion right there.
He's improved every year, if you can't see it, you hate him too much to rationally discuss it and should probably just bow out.

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07-30-2012, 11:59 AM
  #80
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Originally Posted by Hurricane Anton View Post
He's improved every year....
No he hasn't. He's easily the weakest link in the Canes blueline today.

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07-30-2012, 12:13 PM
  #81
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Oh good lord. Please hush

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07-30-2012, 12:15 PM
  #82
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Oh good lord. Please hush


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07-30-2012, 12:28 PM
  #83
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Originally Posted by TheBigKahuna View Post
No he hasn't. He's easily the weakest link in the Canes blueline today.
That's not saying much. Pitkanen and Gleason are much higher-profile players, and Faulk is a budding stud. Why would we compare McBain to guys like that given his age and role?

So who's left? The two oldest players on the team, Harrison and Corvo. The latter is much the same kind of player, with a decade more experience and not likely to play much beyond his current contract. Harrison... well, frankly I'd argue that Harrison snowed a lot of people with his career season and is ultimately about the same level of player as McBain with nowhere near the growth potential.

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07-30-2012, 12:34 PM
  #84
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That's an egregious misquotation of Jack Nicholson.

I've never been McBain's biggest fan, but I don't trust myself to evaluate defensemen fairly. Last season, there were a few times that I noticed him make pretty big mistakes in a row, and once that happened, I found myself trying to fit that idea--the idea that McBain screws up a lot--to every game I watched. But that's not fair obviously, and a lot of people I know insist that Pitkanen is really terrible and turns it over way too much, but dear God that is so not true. So maybe I'm also wrong about McBain. I think everyone on this board needs to take their own opinions with a grain of salt, because it's so easy to decide that a player has a certain tendency and then look for it whenever they're on the ice.

Any given player is going to touch the puck or do something important away from the puck tens of times every game for 82 games in a season. Our brains aren't designed to reasonably analyze all that data, so instead we pick and choose what we want to see to fit the trends we perceive, because perceiving trends is fun and makes us feel smart. I'm interested to see what various statistically rigorous metrics say about McBain's play.

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07-30-2012, 12:36 PM
  #85
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Originally Posted by tarheelhockey View Post
I'd argue that Harrison snowed a lot of people with his career season and is ultimately about the same level of player as McBain
I'd argue that, considering the negative opinion of Harrison in comparison to the positive opinion of McBain at the outset of last season, the end of that sentence makes a mockery of the beginning.

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07-30-2012, 12:39 PM
  #86
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Originally Posted by geehaad View Post
I'd argue that, considering the negative opinion of Harrison in comparison to the positive opinion of McBain at the outset of last season, the end of that sentence makes a mockery of the beginning.
I'm honestly not sure what you just said.

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07-30-2012, 01:11 PM
  #87
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Originally Posted by urn View Post
I'm interested to see what various statistically rigorous metrics say about McBain's play.
I'd never try to pass off the subjective plus-minus as statistically rigorous, but it's a pretty good distillation of each player's results in the end zones.

According to that metric, which is basically a hand-count of how many times he was truly, directly involved in the puck going in the net at even strength, McBain was offensively on a level similar to Pitkanen, and both were an exponential degree ahead of the rest of our defensemen.

More specifically, McBain materially helped put the puck in the net once per 74:04 of five-on-five. Pitkanen took only 62:40 to generate a "plus", so his total numbers would have looked a lot better if not for the injuries. Gleason took nearly twice as much time to generate a plus (not to mention his were front-loaded into the first half of the season), and Faulk was nowhere close, at nearly 170 minutes per-plus.

Even granting that a subjective measurement carries the risk of error (though I'd argue that this is a more accurate metric than any standard statistic), it says something when two guys are separated by a degree of 100%. McBain and Pitkanen were our clear-cut best offensive defensemen at even strength.

The defensive side is where McBain suffers a little. He only took 45:26 to generate a minus, and while that was still better than Joni's 38:34 and Harrison's 43:35, it compares unfavorably to Faulk (53:58), Allen (67.43) and Gleason (76:50).

Overall, McBain was a MUCH better offensive force than anyone other than Pitkanen (who wasn't around a lot of the season) and his defense while poor was still middle-of-the-road for our roster. His overall impact was respectable in comparison to guys who get a lot less flak from the fans.

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Old
07-30-2012, 01:17 PM
  #88
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Originally Posted by tarheelhockey View Post
I'd never try to pass off the subjective plus-minus as statistically rigorous, but it's a pretty good distillation of each player's results in the end zones.

According to that metric, which is basically a hand-count of how many times he was truly, directly involved in the puck going in the net at even strength, McBain was offensively on a level similar to Pitkanen, and both were an exponential degree ahead of the rest of our defensemen.

More specifically, McBain materially helped put the puck in the net once per 74:04 of five-on-five. Pitkanen took only 62:40 to generate a "plus", so his total numbers would have looked a lot better if not for the injuries. Gleason took nearly twice as much time to generate a plus (not to mention his were front-loaded into the first half of the season), and Faulk was nowhere close, at nearly 170 minutes per-plus.

Even granting that a subjective measurement carries the risk of error (though I'd argue that this is a more accurate metric than any standard statistic), it says something when two guys are separated by a degree of 100%. McBain and Pitkanen were our clear-cut best offensive defensemen at even strength.

The defensive side is where McBain suffers a little. He only took 45:26 to generate a minus, and while that was still better than Joni's 38:34 and Harrison's 43:35, it compares unfavorably to Faulk (53:58), Allen (67.43) and Gleason (76:50).

Overall, McBain was a MUCH better offensive force than anyone other than Pitkanen (who wasn't around a lot of the season) and his defense while poor was still middle-of-the-road for our roster. His overall impact was respectable in comparison to guys who get a lot less flak from the fans.
Wow, that's extremely interesting. Thanks for that. That metric does sound pretty promising, because it keeps an accurate tally of the stuff that everyone notices, like "damn Corvo totally left the guy wide open in front of the net."

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07-30-2012, 01:20 PM
  #89
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What would make the subjective plus-minus even better (and more subjective) is if a plus was awarded for breaking up a goal scoring chance.

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07-30-2012, 01:22 PM
  #90
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And he's 24. The only player younger in the comparison group is Faulk.

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07-30-2012, 01:29 PM
  #91
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Originally Posted by Plan The Parade View Post
What would make the subjective plus-minus even better (and more subjective) is if a plus was awarded for breaking up a goal scoring chance.
Absolutely. The main limitation is that NHL.com only archives the scoring plays, along with some other unhelpful stuff like saves.

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07-30-2012, 01:59 PM
  #92
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How much would a file containing full-game footage of every game played since say 2000 cost? Would the NHL (or some weird meticulous guy) even sell that?

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07-30-2012, 02:01 PM
  #93
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Originally Posted by urn View Post
How much would a file containing full-game footage of every game played since say 2000 cost? Would the NHL (or some weird meticulous guy) even sell that?
It seems like a natural next step for the Gamecenter archive. No idea how much it would cost, but it would be a hell of a nice Christmas present!

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07-30-2012, 02:08 PM
  #94
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Originally Posted by tarheelhockey View Post
I'd never try to pass off the subjective plus-minus as statistically rigorous, but it's a pretty good distillation of each player's results in the end zones.

According to that metric, which is basically a hand-count of how many times he was truly, directly involved in the puck going in the net at even strength, McBain was offensively on a level similar to Pitkanen, and both were an exponential degree ahead of the rest of our defensemen.

More specifically, McBain materially helped put the puck in the net once per 74:04 of five-on-five. Pitkanen took only 62:40 to generate a "plus", so his total numbers would have looked a lot better if not for the injuries. Gleason took nearly twice as much time to generate a plus (not to mention his were front-loaded into the first half of the season), and Faulk was nowhere close, at nearly 170 minutes per-plus.

Even granting that a subjective measurement carries the risk of error (though I'd argue that this is a more accurate metric than any standard statistic), it says something when two guys are separated by a degree of 100%. McBain and Pitkanen were our clear-cut best offensive defensemen at even strength.

The defensive side is where McBain suffers a little. He only took 45:26 to generate a minus, and while that was still better than Joni's 38:34 and Harrison's 43:35, it compares unfavorably to Faulk (53:58), Allen (67.43) and Gleason (76:50).

Overall, McBain was a MUCH better offensive force than anyone other than Pitkanen (who wasn't around a lot of the season) and his defense while poor was still middle-of-the-road for our roster. His overall impact was respectable in comparison to guys who get a lot less flak from the fans.
I don't know how meaningful those stats are when they ignore the context of the minutes they play. Gleason/Allen getting defensive starts with the Sutter line vs. McBain getting offensive zone starts with Staal.

Do any of the stats show more than the guy playing offense with the offensive players had better offensive numbers than the guy playing defense with the defensive players.

Not that McBain isn't way ahead of Gleason offensively. But I don't think these are the stats to show it.

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07-30-2012, 02:26 PM
  #95
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They at least show that, when given the opportunity, McBain can produce offensively.

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07-30-2012, 02:32 PM
  #96
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Well, glad we got off on this stats tangent to prove *that* once and for all.

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07-30-2012, 02:37 PM
  #97
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Originally Posted by urn View Post
How much would a file containing full-game footage of every game played since say 2000 cost? Would the NHL (or some weird meticulous guy) even sell that?
Subscribe to GameCenter online for $180/year gives you access to every game since like 2008-09 I think, with some games from earlier years.

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07-30-2012, 03:30 PM
  #98
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Originally Posted by wallym View Post
I don't know how meaningful those stats are when they ignore the context of the minutes they play. Gleason/Allen getting defensive starts with the Sutter line vs. McBain getting offensive zone starts with Staal.

Do any of the stats show more than the guy playing offense with the offensive players had better offensive numbers than the guy playing defense with the defensive players.

Not that McBain isn't way ahead of Gleason offensively. But I don't think these are the stats to show it.
That would be an interesting layer to add, taking it more into an advanced-statistics direction. I'd be very interested to see how it turned out.

One of the toughest things to capture in hockey statistics is the action that occurs on non-shooting plays. Included in that category is the defenseman who steadily and reliably passes or skates the puck out of his zone. His numbers are so heavily dependent on how his teammates stack up to the opponent. It's very hard to pull that guy out of the crowd without using biased data, but zone starts/finishes are a move in the right direction.

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07-30-2012, 04:18 PM
  #99
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I think the lack of stats that truly show what we want to know sort of reflects on the fact that hockey isn't a strictly stat driven sport like baseball.

There are so many non-measurables to explain discrepancies in measurables. At some point it's just easier to say "Jaime McBain is better at offense, because we watch him play offense, and he seems to do it better."

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07-30-2012, 04:36 PM
  #100
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Pitkanen-Faulk
Gleason-Murphy
Harrison-McBain

Waivers: Corvo

EDIT: Wrong thread, but both threads are about the same thing so I'll just leave it here.

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