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The case for a 1-year surgical tank for the Habs

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Old
07-31-2012, 01:59 PM
  #401
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Originally Posted by buddahsmoka1 View Post
I guess you can explain to me, precisely the way you did there, how Philly nose-dived all their way down to the **** bin before going to the SC finals the next year with virtually the same team?
Probably because they drafted superhuman James Van Riemsdyk (however you spell that name)

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07-31-2012, 02:05 PM
  #402
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still trying to defend you're weak ass arguement eh buddy ??i gotta give ya props for being so determined.and while you're at it ,,what exactly does "tank" mean again??
This is what I'm still trying to figure out. DA basically makes an argument of why the Habs should finish low in the standings this year, but what exactly does he expect management/coach/players to do?

Are we supposed to trade away all our vets? Play our backup goalie more just to lose? Tell our players not to try? None of those things are going to happen...

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07-31-2012, 02:15 PM
  #403
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Originally Posted by FlyingKostitsyn View Post
Probably because they drafted superhuman James Van Riemsdyk (however you spell that name)
Top 5 lottery picks FOR THE MOTHA****ING WIN.

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07-31-2012, 02:19 PM
  #404
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Originally Posted by buddahsmoka1 View Post
So you admit that you can build a legitimate contender without this amazing infallible rebuild strategy?

...

I guess you can explain to me, precisely the way you did there, how Philly nose-dived all their way down to the **** bin before going to the SC finals the next year with virtually the same team?
I don't blame you for not reading the whole thread.

I have stated many times that the strategy presented in this thread is merely one strategy to build a contender. I'm sure there are other strategies and I'd love to read another topic where somebody outlines a detailed plan.

In recent years, Philadelphia has a 2nd round exit, 2nd round exit, finals appearance, 1st round exit, conference finals. They've done consistently well, and they've done so without tanking. JVR may contribute in the futue via the Luke Schenn trade but thus far he has not contributed anything.

Nowhere has anyone claimed that any particular strategy is infallible. Quit with the strawmen.

Quote:
Originally Posted by buddahsmoka1 View Post
There are 30 teams in this league. What gives you the right to demand excellence every single season? What makes your team so special that you feel that you deserve to win?
We don't deserve to win. We've put a weak team on the ice.

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Originally Posted by buddahsmoka1 View Post
Nice dodge. Seriously, I apparently talked out of my ass and made a complete mockery of myself. Yet...you didn't provide examples of real life complex matters having uniform probability distributions.
I provided a real world example. You can find a thousand more with google.

It's not meant to describe "complex matters" like NHL teams, that's the point I was educating you on: it's not a crapshoot.

Quote:
Originally Posted by buddahsmoka1 View Post
You know what is cool about language? Words can be used in certain contexts and have different meanings.

When I said 'glorified crapshoot' do you honestly, actually, believe I mean that every team has a 1/30 chance of winning the cup?
Then don't use the word crapshoot, which has a specific meaning.

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07-31-2012, 02:22 PM
  #405
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Originally Posted by Jakomyte View Post
This is what I'm still trying to figure out. DA basically makes an argument of why the Habs should finish low in the standings this year, but what exactly does he expect management/coach/players to do?

Are we supposed to trade away all our vets? Play our backup goalie more just to lose? Tell our players not to try? None of those things are going to happen...
A detailed plan is spelled out in the opening post. Basically, all Bergevin has to do is start the season with the current roster, let the players give 100%, and a high draft pick should follow.

I expect several vets will be traded.

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07-31-2012, 02:58 PM
  #406
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The only problem I see with a "strategic tank" is that there are examples of teams that consistently have high draft picks and yet fail to make headway in the standings. Edmonton, NYI and even the Blackhawks before the ownership/management issues got sorted out there were perrenial losers.

Does this management team have the brains, stones and luck (all key ingredients) to build a contender? No one knows that yet. I'm hoping they do. High picks certainly make it much more likely that improvement in standings will come but it doesn't guarantee it.

That said when does the "Fail for Mac" thread start?

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07-31-2012, 03:08 PM
  #407
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Godwin's_law
Godwin's law (also known as Godwin's Rule of Nazi Analogies or Godwin's Law of Nazi Analogies[1][2]) is an observation made by Mike Godwin in 1990[2] that has become an Internet adage. It states: "As an online discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Nazis or Hitler approaches 1."[2][3] In other words, Godwin observed that, given enough time, in any online discussion—regardless of topic or scope—someone inevitably makes a comparison to Hitler and the Nazis.

http://www.urbandictionary.com/defin...in's%20law
A term that originated on Usenet, Godwin's Law states that as an online argument grows longer and more heated, it becomes increasingly likely that somebody will bring up Adolf Hitler or the Nazis. When such an event occurs, the person guilty of invoking Godwin's Law has effectively forfieted the argument.
You don't really understand what is a Godwin point.

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Old
07-31-2012, 05:03 PM
  #408
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
You're trying to derail the thread, so yes it's annoying.
People who think pro athletes and management "tank " are annoying. It jus doesn't exist.

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07-31-2012, 05:21 PM
  #409
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If your team is weak, you can play as best as you can and the end result is the same as purposefully tanking. Moreover, if the team is weak, at some point around mid-season, the players stop believing they can make the playoffs and suddenly injuries matter more and players would rather call this season off. That's when the vets step aside and when rookies are called up. That's also when the vets ask for a trade, tired of the "loser's" attitude. Throughout this process, everyone is doing his best but tank prevails.

A good GM can put in place a weak team knowing real well the final results on the ice. The coach, the players will play as professionals and give all they can... does not matter.

That is how I see the Habs tanking this season. Getting good prospects in 2013 and continuing development. Target to start rebuilding would be 2013-2014. Michel Therrien was part of such a process in Pittsburgh developing Crosby and Malkin, giving them responsabilities little by little.

On the other hand, I want this team to compete as hard as they can even if the result is tanking. This work ethic, we can build on when better players are added.

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07-31-2012, 05:44 PM
  #410
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The whole premise of this thread is flawed because this team is far better than the OP (and most) give it credit for.

With a working powerplay last year's team might have been playoff bound or close to it, believe it or not. Outside Buffalo we had, by far, the best goal differential out of all non-playoff eastern teams. Buffalo beat us by only 2 goals and we were better than Washington or Florida (2 playoff teams). 5 on 5 we were average, we went to the conference finals with a worse team in that aspect. If we had a PP% of 17% (league average) instead of 14% we would have scored 9 more goals and we could have allowed a lot less than 8 short handed goals ( )

With a working powerplay we could have had an even goal differential and there is no way we would have finished 15th that way. Even then we were lucky to finish 15th since the other bottom teams were considerably worse. Looking at next years' team there is no reason we wouldn't do as good 5 on 5 and its quite possible we do better on the powerplay, with Markov here (we know the general always has his powerplays top5 in the NHL at least). On the PK the key elements are still here, Gill removed but Prust added. A lot depends on coaching but there is no way we finish lower than 10th.

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Old
07-31-2012, 05:50 PM
  #411
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One of the best ****ing T threads ever.

I'm posting in it so that we can quickly hit..............

"The case for a 1-year surgical tank for the Habs" Part 2

Only 590 more posts to go!!!


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Old
07-31-2012, 06:05 PM
  #412
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Originally Posted by FlyingKostitsyn View Post
The whole premise of this thread is flawed because this team is far better than the OP (and most) give it credit for.

With a working powerplay last year's team might have been playoff bound or close to it, believe it or not. Outside Buffalo we had, by far, the best goal differential out of all non-playoff eastern teams. Buffalo beat us by only 2 goals and we were better than Washington or Florida (2 playoff teams). 5 on 5 we were average, we went to the conference finals with a worse team in that aspect. If we had a PP% of 17% (league average) instead of 14% we would have scored 9 more goals and we could have allowed a lot less than 8 short handed goals ( )

With a working powerplay we could have had an even goal differential and there is no way we would have finished 15th that way. Even then we were lucky to finish 15th since the other bottom teams were considerably worse. Looking at next years' team there is no reason we wouldn't do as good 5 on 5 and its quite possible we do better on the powerplay, with Markov here (we know the general always has his powerplays top5 in the NHL at least). On the PK the key elements are still here, Gill removed but Prust added. A lot depends on coaching but there is no way we finish lower than 10th.
We would have been a much better team with a working power play and/or shootout.

Our power play is missing a triggerman. There's no Sheldon Sourray / Mark Streit / Mathieu Schneider / Marc-Andre Bergeron / James Wisniewski. Those players have been a foundation of our successful PP for years, particularly when we had the best PP in the league for several years running. Every single one of those players gave us great PP success, and we let them all go.

Andrei Markov will be an excellent PP quarterback. But you know what a quarterback gets you without a wide receiver or runningback? Nothing. A great quarterback needs a great wide receiver, or he's just a broken tree in the middle of the forest.

The lack of a triggerman on defense is one of the three biggest holes on our team.

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07-31-2012, 06:16 PM
  #413
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
We would have been a much better team with a working power play and/or shootout.

Our power play is missing a triggerman. There's no Sheldon Sourray / Mark Streit / Mathieu Schneider / Marc-Andre Bergeron / James Wisniewski. Those players have been a foundation of our successful PP for years, particularly when we had the best PP in the league for several years running. Every single one of those players gave us great PP success, and we let them all go.

Andrei Markov will be an excellent PP quarterback. But you know what a quarterback gets you without a wide receiver or runningback? Nothing. A great quarterback needs a great wide receiver, or he's just a broken tree in the middle of the forest.

The lack of a triggerman on defense is one of the three biggest holes on our team.
But do we use our first round draft pick on a triggerman or on MacKinnon?

This tanking business is complicated. You still have to make decisions and manage assets even though you get the top draft picks.

Columbus, Edmonton regards......

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07-31-2012, 06:21 PM
  #414
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Originally Posted by SouthernHab View Post
But do we use our first round draft pick on a triggerman or on MacKinnon?

This tanking business is complicated. You still have to make decisions and manage assets even though you get the top draft picks.

Columbus, Edmonton regards......
PP Triggermen can be acquired by UFA signings and trades. In the past few years we acquired Schneider, Bergeron, and Wisniewski. We can do it again. Bergevin has opted not to do so at this time.


Last edited by DAChampion: 07-31-2012 at 06:34 PM.
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07-31-2012, 06:38 PM
  #415
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I heard there is a black guy that is pretty good at shooting the puck on Montreal.

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07-31-2012, 06:46 PM
  #416
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No there's no one good on Montreal, what the hell are you talking about? We've been a disgrace to our history by making the playoffs year after year and being a competative team, giving fans something to cheer about etc... Stupid GM's, don't they know we should just lose every season so we can get young players.

Jeeze guys let's not even bother putting a team out there, forfeit every game, 0-82 gives us an AWESOME shot at a lottery pick!

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07-31-2012, 06:59 PM
  #417
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Originally Posted by Drive425 View Post
The only problem I see with a "strategic tank" is that there are examples of teams that consistently have high draft picks and yet fail to make headway in the standings. Edmonton, NYI and even the Blackhawks before the ownership/management issues got sorted out there were perrenial losers.

Does this management team have the brains, stones and luck (all key ingredients) to build a contender? No one knows that yet. I'm hoping they do. High picks certainly make it much more likely that improvement in standings will come but it doesn't guarantee it.

That said when does the "Fail for Mac" thread start?
Thats a very underrated aspect of the rebuilding process.
In order to be in a position to rebuild, not only you need to be a bad team, but you need to reach a point of no-return, point you reached because of bad management.

If you are doing a decent, not even good, but decent job, you wont end up in such a situation because the league is engineered to allow as many teams as possible to be as competitive as possible at the same time. Well, during the last 2 seasons, thats not as true as it was, but its still an important factor.

The point is, teams are not rebuilding because they chose to (i already said this several times anyway, but i feel its the right time to say it again)? And whats the point in a rebuild anyway ?

Collecting several top-5 picks ?
Teams with more than 2 top-5 picks are poorly managed and are not going to move up in the standings as long as the staff doesnt change. If the staff is gone, well...you have to look even higher, and thats not a good thing.
When we look at the teams with several high picks, they were all pushed there by poor management.

Chicago was badly managed. Pittsburgh was out of money. LA and Washington both used to have horribly old teams that ran out of energy.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Lafleurs Guy View Post
As for the Isles... again, posterboys for why rebuilding works. Dealt away Luongo, Redden, Chara, Spezza, Bertuzzi... all they had to do was hang onto their picks and they probably would've won multiple cups.
Posterboys of why the bad management of a team create a false opinion.
If Milbury isnt an idiot and dont give away the first players they had in that list of mistakes, they dont end up with the latter ones, because they would have improved their situation.
The team would have made some progress, and the latest mistakes are never made. Because they never have the chance, in that scenario, of having that many great players.

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07-31-2012, 08:10 PM
  #418
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
PP Triggermen can be acquired by UFA signings and trades. In the past few years we acquired Schneider, Bergeron, and Wisniewski. We can do it again. Bergevin has opted not to do so at this time.
So why hasnt Edmonton or Columbus figured this out?

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07-31-2012, 08:14 PM
  #419
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Thats a very underrated aspect of the rebuilding process.
In order to be in a position to rebuild, not only you need to be a bad team, but you need to reach a point of no-return, point you reached because of bad management.

If you are doing a decent, not even good, but decent job, you wont end up in such a situation because the league is engineered to allow as many teams as possible to be as competitive as possible at the same time. Well, during the last 2 seasons, thats not as true as it was, but its still an important factor.

The point is, teams are not rebuilding because they chose to (i already said this several times anyway, but i feel its the right time to say it again)? And whats the point in a rebuild anyway ?

Collecting several top-5 picks ?
Teams with more than 2 top-5 picks are poorly managed and are not going to move up in the standings as long as the staff doesnt change. If the staff is gone, well...you have to look even higher, and thats not a good thing.
When we look at the teams with several high picks, they were all pushed there by poor management.

Chicago was badly managed. Pittsburgh was out of money. LA and Washington both used to have horribly old teams that ran out of energy.




Posterboys of why the bad management of a team create a false opinion.
If Milbury isnt an idiot and dont give away the first players they had in that list of mistakes, they dont end up with the latter ones, because they would have improved their situation.
The team would have made some progress, and the latest mistakes are never made. Because they never have the chance, in that scenario, of having that many great players.
OMG!!!!!!!!

Could it be that the Pens won the Cup because Bylsma was a great coach? And could it be that LA turned their season around because of a coaching change in the middle of the season?

That is amazing. We should start a thread on the importance of having a great coach.

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Old
07-31-2012, 08:21 PM
  #420
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Originally Posted by SouthernHab View Post
So why hasnt Edmonton or Columbus figured this out?
Columbus signed James Wisniewski last summer. He did well for them, but he missed 34 games. Happens sometimes. However, he's a good player for them going forward.

Edmonton had the 3rd best power play in the league this summer. They've solved that aspect of the game. There are other problems holding them back.

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07-31-2012, 08:21 PM
  #421
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Originally Posted by buddahsmoka1 View Post
I heard there is a black guy that is pretty good at shooting the puck on Montreal.
If by pretty good you mean misses the net by a tractors length multiple times a game then yeah, we have one.

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07-31-2012, 09:00 PM
  #422
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205 shots on net last year, probably will hit 230 with a healthy Markov

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07-31-2012, 09:37 PM
  #423
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Originally Posted by buddahsmoka1 View Post
I heard there is a black guy that is pretty good at shooting the puck on Montreal.
Hopefully he's worked on his shot this summer. Accuracy and mostly trigger speed. Just understanding he doesn't have to a predictable full golf swing every single time is a start.. Anyways he does have a good shot and Markov should help him get good opportunities to use it. Last season we did not have a powerplay quarterback. Plekanec tried and did his best, but his place is at forward. Subban is much better as a shooter and the other defensemen are non-factors.

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07-31-2012, 09:59 PM
  #424
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Do you think that it's possible to wait for the team to be bad before talking about tanking? You may assume that the Canadiens will do poorly this season, however, assumptions can often be wrong. If you had been told before last season that the Habs (coming off a 6th place finish and a game 7 OT loss to the eventual Stanley Cup champion) would have a healthy Price, Subban, and Plekanec, that David Desharnais would score 60 points, and Cole and Pacioretty would each have more than 30 goals, would you have predicted that the Canadiens would finish dead last in the conference?

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07-31-2012, 10:17 PM
  #425
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Originally Posted by CTHabsfan View Post
Do you think that it's possible to wait for the team to be bad before talking about tanking? You may assume that the Canadiens will do poorly this season, however, assumptions can often be wrong. If you had been told before last season that the Habs (coming off a 6th place finish and a game 7 OT loss to the eventual Stanley Cup champion) would have a healthy Price, Subban, and Plekanec, that David Desharnais would score 60 points, and Cole and Pacioretty would each have more than 30 goals, would you have predicted that the Canadiens would finish dead last in the conference?
That was exactly one of the points I made in the opening post.
In spite of several things going very well last year, the Habs finished last.
This is evidence that their weakness last year was systemic.

Also, a few technical points:
- The team that took Boston to game 7 OT the previous year had James Wisniewski and Roman Hamrlik. They left and were not replaced. That is a catastrophic loss. The following year the defense was the weakest part of the team.
- Cole and Pacioretty had career seasons because they were the last men left standing and got disproportionate PP time and OZone starts. Cammalleri was shipped out, Kostitsyn was shipped out, Bourque sucks and Gionta was injured, meaning they got all the coring opportunities. The flip side of Cole and Pacioretty scoring 30 goals was that we had Staubitz-Plekanec-White as our second line for a stretch. Nobody else was getting goal scoring opportunities, nobody else was scoring. Did you know it was the first time since his rookie year that Plekanec scored fewer than 20 goals?
- Healthy Subban, Price, Gorges, Plekanec; unhealthy Markov, Moen, Gionta, Gomez. Typical year in Habs land. The same will be true if the exact opposite happens this coming year.

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