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The Best Career Player of the 1982 Draft

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07-30-2012, 04:37 PM
  #1
dr robbie
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The Best Career Player of the 1982 Draft

Going to try to figure out where the best pick often lies in drafts, starting with the 1982 draft.

The definition of the best career player is up to you. Though, it's not about talent or possibility, it's about what they've accomplished in their careers.

If this poll goes well, I'll try to make a series of them.

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07-30-2012, 04:42 PM
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OvenChicken8
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Forward: Gilmour
Defense: Housley/Stevens

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07-30-2012, 04:44 PM
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Dissonance
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Have to think Scott Stevens takes this one, easily. Though would be interested to hear if anyone wants to make a case for Gilmour over Stevens.

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07-30-2012, 04:44 PM
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seventieslord
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OvenChicken8 View Post
Forward: Gilmour
Defense: Housley/Stevens
Yeah, I guess itís pretty close between Housley and Stevens. Tough one to call there.

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07-30-2012, 04:50 PM
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Gotta be Stevens

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07-30-2012, 04:52 PM
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seventieslord
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To the OP: what is the endgame and what are you trying to prove?

Are you trying to prove that the 1st overall pick tends to be the best player of the draft? You shouldn’t have to prove that to anyone. *

My concern as well, is that this really isn’t a very scientific way to prove it. Hypothetical example: Say that from 1990-2000 the best player in the draft was at a different position every time, but never 1st. but we all agreed that every year the 1st overall pick ended up being the 2nd/3rd best player in the draft. This would mean that the 1st overall picks easily outperformed the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, picks, and so on, on the aggregate.

I have data compiled from 1969 to 2001 with an “HF” rating applied to every player drafted those years. It clearly shows an exponential relationship between draft postion and eventual quality of the player. Aside from a few odd blips the curve is very well defined. Draft higher and you get a better player. Draft first overall, and you have the best chance at the best player, draft second overall and you have the second best chance, and so on.



* I hope your point isn’t that the 1st overall pick is rarely the best player in the draft. I don’t have the exact data in front of me but suppose over 30 years the 1st overall pick was “only” the best player 12 times this would prove the opposite of what you were hoping to.

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07-31-2012, 02:40 PM
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Big Phil
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dissonance View Post
Have to think Scott Stevens takes this one, easily. Though would be interested to hear if anyone wants to make a case for Gilmour over Stevens.
Before even opening this thread I said Scott Stevens. Then I thought about Gilmour being a forgotten pick in that draft. The next best ones I can think of are Housley and Bellows who are both down a noticeable peg. So it's between Gilmour and Stevens.

I think you need a really good lawyer to argue for Gilmour. Stevens in a top 20-25 defenseman. He racked up all-star selections when he was playing good defense and good offense and he got them when he focused more on the defensive game. So he adjusted rather well and was a force either way. He never really had a gap in his career.

Gilmour had a gap or two and did less in his 30s than Stevens did for sure. I don't think there is much that seperates them when it comes to the postseason. Do you want Gilmour at his best or Stevens? Tough call because each player is going to make a large impact.

But overall you have to go with Stevens. He was a better defenseman than Gilmour was a centerman.

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07-31-2012, 02:53 PM
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Dissonance
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Phil View Post
Gilmour had a gap or two and did less in his 30s than Stevens did for sure. I don't think there is much that seperates them when it comes to the postseason. Do you want Gilmour at his best or Stevens? Tough call because each player is going to make a large impact.

But overall you have to go with Stevens. He was a better defenseman than Gilmour was a centerman.
Agreed, at their absolute peak, it's tough. Both players arguably had their best years in 1993-94. Stevens was runner-up for the Norris and was flat-out dominant all year. But Gilmour was fourth in regular-season scoring while playing excellent defensive hockey and had a phenomenal playoff run.

I'd be curious to see where they were ranked at the time--maybe by THN's season preview for the following year. I'd guess it would be close.

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07-31-2012, 03:32 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dissonance View Post
Agreed, at their absolute peak, it's tough. Both players arguably had their best years in 1993-94. Stevens was runner-up for the Norris and was flat-out dominant all year. But Gilmour was fourth in regular-season scoring while playing excellent defensive hockey and had a phenomenal playoff run.

I'd be curious to see where they were ranked at the time--maybe by THN's season preview for the following year. I'd guess it would be close.
Both of them should have finished their careers in St. Louis so viewing this thread is like rubbing salt in the wounds of Blues fans
but I would have to pick Stevens even with Gilmour being one of my all time favorites

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07-31-2012, 03:44 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dissonance View Post
Agreed, at their absolute peak, it's tough. Both players arguably had their best years in 1993-94. Stevens was runner-up for the Norris and was flat-out dominant all year. But Gilmour was fourth in regular-season scoring while playing excellent defensive hockey and had a phenomenal playoff run.

I'd be curious to see where they were ranked at the time--maybe by THN's season preview for the following year. I'd guess it would be close.
Stevens' place on the top-60 defensemen list suggests he belongs around 80th on a top-100 players list. Gilmour is my all-time favourite player, and I think he's a top-100 player too, but I really have to sell him to some, to get him onto a top-100 list. With Stevens there is no doubt.

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07-31-2012, 04:09 PM
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Stevens
Gilmour
Andreychuk
Bellows
Samuelsson
Hextall

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07-31-2012, 04:34 PM
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Went with Stevens as well, although I did have to give a small nod to Andreychuk. Impressive to have put up 600 goals in his career. Though he's still third to Gilmour.

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07-31-2012, 05:40 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
My concern as well, is that this really isnít a very scientific way to prove it. Hypothetical example: Say that from 1990-2000 the best player in the draft was at a different position every time, but never 1st.
Who ended up better than Joe Thornton in 1997?

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07-31-2012, 05:42 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Passchendaele View Post
Who ended up better than Joe Thornton in 1997?
Key word in his sentence, I believe, was "hypothetical".

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07-31-2012, 05:45 PM
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seventieslord
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Passchendaele View Post
Who ended up better than Joe Thornton in 1997?
I never said anyone did. This was a hypothetical. If you'd like to attack my hypothetical more effectively, you should go after the part where the 1999 1st overall pick was the 2nd best player in the draft.

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07-31-2012, 05:51 PM
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Dissonance
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Quote:
Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
Stevens' place on the top-60 defensemen list suggests he belongs around 80th on a top-100 players list. Gilmour is my all-time favourite player, and I think he's a top-100 player too, but I really have to sell him to some, to get him onto a top-100 list. With Stevens there is no doubt.
I just meant peak vs. peak. Who was considered the better player in 1994? Seems like it'd be pretty close.

But considered for their entire careers, yeah, I think Stevens takes this by a fair bit.

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07-31-2012, 05:52 PM
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Passchendaele
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Sorry, misread. Hehe.

But it made sense to a point,

Owen Nolan wasn't the top player from the 1990 draft
Roman Hamrlik wasn't the top player from the 1992 draft
Alexandre Daigle wasn't the top player from the 1993 draft
Ed Jovanovski wasn't the top player from the 1994 draft
Bryan Berard wasn't the top player from the 1995 draft
Chris Phillips wasn't the top player from the 1996 draft
Vincent Lecavalier wasn't the top player from the 1998 draft
Patrik Stefan wasn't the top player from the 1999 draft

You could argue that Forsberg was better than Lindros for 1991.. Thornton's only close competition is Roberto Luongo.

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07-31-2012, 08:16 PM
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Big Phil
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Passchendaele View Post
Who ended up better than Joe Thornton in 1997?
I'll still take Thornton, but Luongo really isn't that far off. He was putting together a Vezina-caliber year when he was in Florida. Luongo has to do something special to unseat Thornton, but it isn't out of the realm of possibilities. None have won a Cup but Luongo was by far the closest. Thornton won a Hart, but Luongo was close in 2007. Really, since both are 33 years old and have seemingly enough hockey left in them we could see Luongo being the best to come out of this draft.

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Old
08-01-2012, 12:33 PM
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Le Magnifique 66
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Stevens

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